Economy
2013 budget under threat, as crude oil prices plunges
By Omoh Gabriel Business Editor in Washington D.C
The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of Economy Dr. Ngozi Okonzo-Iweala said in Washington that the ability of government to finance the 2013 budget has came under threat as Nigeria was losing N160billion ($1billion) a month in revenue following the drop in oil production and the falling the prices of crude oil at the international market. Oil price has dropped to close to the $79 per barrel budget bench mark and could even drop further. Total losses, which stemmed from shut-in due to Force Majeure declared by oil companies, oil theft and illegal bunkering, was put at 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) by the Finance Minister and Coordinating Minister of the economy, Dr Ngozi Okonjo-iweala.
Addressing an emergency press conference at the on-going World Bank/ International Monetary Fund (IMF) meetings in Washington D.C, the minister said the briefing was important because of the avowed transparency in the President Jonathan’s administration.
The Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) had said last Tuesday said that oil production fell below projections in the first quarter due to crude theft and pipeline sabotage. The current production according to Finance Minster, ranged from 2.1 million bpd to 2.2 million barrels per day, less than an estimated 2.5 million barrels per day for the 2013 budget.
The N4.93 trillion ($31.35 billion) budget for 2013 was based on an assumption of a $79-per-barrel budget oil price, higher than the $75-per-barrel proposed by the Executive and up from $72 for last year’s budget.
With the persistent drop in price of oil in the international market ($97 dollar per barrel as at Thursday coupled with the monthly N160billion revenue loss, in addition to the shortfalls in other revenues from the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) and Nigerian Customs, the ability to finance the 2013 budget may be tough if oil production is not restored in good time especially the Shell Nembe, which has shut-in 150,000 barrels of oil per day.
But the Minster has assured that the $7billion left in the Excess Crude Account (ECA) was enough to stabilize the shortfall within the next three months pending the time the recoveries would be made.
She said this is why the Excess Crude Account (ECA) is very important to the country but pointed out that it was very significant for the country to move quickly to recover production.
She said: “In terms of the impact both on the NNPC side, price drop, the customs collection and FIRS, we are experiencing an impact. However, the greatest impact is from the oil sector. The excess crude account is not meant to be a permanent thing but meant to be a fiscal policy instrument in any country not just in Nigeria but any country that has a natural resources base.
“ it is very useful in cushioning the impact of external shock we are talking about. Nigeria simply has to diversify its revenue base. This administration has made it crystal clear, that is why it is focusing on agriculture. That is why we are supporting all the reforms being carried out in all the sectors, not just to create jobs but to diversify our revenue base.
“Our drive in the ministry of finance is to increase collection in taxes not just from corporate but all sectors, there is a lot of room to improve in corporate tax collection, that is why the Federal Inland Revenue service and some consultants are looking at the ways to improve corporate tax administration, FIRS has improved its collection effects but it can be better. In the next four months we will be doing on tax drive to improve tax collection.’
She assured that the Shell Nembe pipeline will soon be restored.
Nigeria depends on crude exports for 80 per cent of government revenue and 95 per cent of its export income. The nation’s foreign exchange reserves have climbed 10 per cent this year to $48.7 billion as at April 16, according to Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) data published on its website.
Economy
Nigeria champions African-Arab trade to boost agribusiness, industrial growth
The Arab Africa Trade Bridges (AATB) Program and the Federal Republic of Nigeria formalized a partnership with the signing of the AATB Membership Agreement, officially welcoming Nigeria as the Program’s newest member country. The signing ceremony took place in Abuja on the sidelines of the 5th AATB Board of Governors Meeting, hosted by the Federal Government of Nigeria.
The Membership Agreement was signed by Eng. Adeeb Y. Al Aama, the CEO of the International Islamic Trade Finance Corporation (ITFC) and AATB Program Secretary General, and H.E. Mr. Wale Edun, Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Federal Republic of Nigeria. The Agreement will provide a strategic and operational framework to support Nigeria’s efforts in trade competitiveness, promote export diversification, strengthen priority value chains, and advance capacity-building efforts in line with national development priorities. Areas of collaboration will include trade promotion, agribusiness modernization, SME development, businessmen missions, trade facilitation, logistics efficiency, and digital trade readiness.
The Honourable Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr. Wale Edun, called for deeper trade collaboration between African and Arab nations, stressing the importance of value-added Agribusiness and industrial partnerships for regional growth. Speaking in Abuja at the Agribusiness Matchmaking Forum ahead of the AATB Board of Governors Meeting, the Minister said the shifting global economy makes it essential for African and Arab nations to rely more on regional cooperation, investment and shared markets.
He highlighted projections showing Arab-Africa trade could grow by more than US$37 billion in the next three years and urged partners to prioritize value addition rather than raw commodity exports. He noted that Nigeria’s growing industrial base and upcoming National Single Window reforms will support efficiency, investment and private-sector expansion.
“This is a moment to turn opportunity into action”, he said. “By working together, we can build stronger value chains, create jobs and support prosperity across our regions”, Edun emphasized. “As African and Arab nations embark on this journey of deeper trade collaboration, the potential for growth and development is vast. With a shared vision and commitment to value-added partnerships, we can unlock new opportunities, drive economic growth, and create a brighter future for our people.”
Speaking during the event, Eng. Adeeb Y. Al Aama, Chief Executive Officer of ITFC and Secretary General of the AATB Program, stated: “We are pleased to welcome Nigeria to be part of the AATB Program. Nigeria stands as one of Africa’s most dynamic and resilient economies in Africa, with a rapidly expanding private sector and strong potential across agribusiness, energy, manufacturing, and digital industries. Through this Membership Agreement, we look forward to collaborating closely with Nigerian institutions to strengthen value chains, expand regional market access, enhance trade finance and investment opportunities, and support the country’s development priorities.”
The signing of this Agreement underscores AATB’s continued engagement with African countries and its evolving portfolio of programs supporting trade and investment. In recent years, AATB has worked on initiatives across agribusiness, textiles, logistics, digital trade, export readiness under the AfCFTA framework, and other regional initiatives such as the Common African Agro-Parks (CAAPs) Programme.
With Nigeria’s accession, the AATB Program extends it’s presence in the region and adds a key partner working toward advancing trade-led development and fostering inclusive economic growth.
Economy
FEC approves 2026–2028 MTEF, projects N34.33trn revenue
Federal Executive Council (FEC) has approved the 2026–2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF), a key fiscal document that outlines Nigeria’s revenue expectations, macroeconomic assumptions, and spending priorities for the next three years. The approval followed Wednesday’s FEC meeting presided over by President Bola Tinubu at the State House, Abuja. The Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Senator Atiku Bagudu made this known after the meeting.
The Minister said the Federal Government is projecting a total revenue inflow of N34.33 trillion in 2026, including N4.98 trillion expected from government-owned enterprises. Bagudu said that the projected revenue is N6.55 trillion lower than earlier estimates, adding that federal allocations are expected to drop by about N9.4 trillion, representing a 16% decline compared to the 2025 budget.
He said that statutory transfers are expected to amount to about N3 trillion within the same fiscal year. On macroeconomic assumptions, FEC adopted an oil production benchmark of 2.6 million barrels per day (mbpd) for 2026, although a more conservative 1.8 mbpd will be used for budgeting purposes. An oil price benchmark of $64 per barrel and an exchange rate of N1,512 per dollar were also approved.
Bagudu said the exchange rate assumption reflects projections tied to economic and political developments ahead of the 2027 general elections. He said the exchange rate assumption took into account the fiscal outlook ahead of the 2027 general elections.
The minister said that all the parameters were based on macroeconomic analysis by the Budget Office and other relevant agencies. Bagudu said FEC also reviewed comments from cabinet members before approving the Medium-Term Fiscal Expenditure Ceiling (MFTEC), which sets expenditure limits. Earlier, the Senate approved the external borrowing plan of $21.5 billion presented by President Tinubu for consideration The loans, according to the Senate, were part of the MTEF and Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP) for the 2025 budget.
Economy
CBN hikes interest on treasury Bills above inflation rate
The spot rate on Nigerian Treasury bills has been increased by 146 basis points by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) following tight subscription levels at the main auction on Wednesday. The spot rate on Treasury bills with one-year maturity has now surpassed Nigeria’s 16.05% inflation by 145 basis points following a recent decision to keep the policy rate at 27%.
The Apex Bank came to the primary market with N700 billion Treasury bills offer size across standard tenors, including 91-day, 182-day and 364 day maturities. Details from the auction results showed that demand settled slightly above the total offers as investors began to seek higher returns on naira assets despite disinflation.
Total subscription came in at about N775 billion versus N700 billion offers floated at the main auction. The results showed rising appetite for duration as investors parked about 90% of their bids on Nigerian Treasury bills with 364 days maturity. The CBN opened N100 billion worth of 91 days bills for subscription, but the offer received underwhelming bids totalling N44.17 billion.
The CBN allotted N42.80 billion for the short-term instrument at the spot rate of 15.30%, the same as the previous auction. Total demand for 182 days Nigerian Treasury bills settled at N33.38 billion as against N150 billion that the authority pushed out for subscription. The CBN raised N30.36 billion from 182 days bills allotted to investors at the spot rate of 15.50%, the same as the previous auction.
Investors staked N697.29 billion on N450 billion in 364-day Treasury bills that was offered for subscription. The CBN raised N636.46 billion from the longest tenor at the spot rate of 17.50%, up from 16.04% at the previous auction.
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