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Nigerian Economy expands to 6.81% in Third Quarter

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Ngozi111Nigeria’s economic growth GDP, rose in the third quarter as the oil industry’s contraction eased and agricultural output increased. Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics said that the amount of goods and services produced in the country in the month of July, August and September 2013 “Gross domestic product rose to 6.81 per cent on an annual basis. This it said was the fastest rate of growth this year, compared with 6.18 percent in the second quarter.
The Africa Development Bank AfDB had said that the outlook for growth of the economy remains positive while listing the downside risks to include security challenges arising from religious conflict in some states and slower global growth. According to the AfDB as economic growth is largely driven by capital-intensive sectors, it has not translated into sufficient job creation and poverty remains high. As a result, Nigeria has a low Human Development Index (HDI). The country has made some progress towards attainment of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), albeit slowly and unevenly. There is a high need to diversify the Nigerian economy into the non-oil sector. This would help expand the sources of growth and make it broad based, both socially and geographically. Further development of agriculture, manufacturing and services could broaden The Nigerian economy slowed down from 7.4 per cent growth in 2011 to 6.6 per cent in 2012. The oil sector continues to drive the economy, with average growth of about 8.0 per cent, compared to -0.35 per cent for the non-oil sector. Agriculture and the oil and gas sectors continue to dominate economic activities in Nigeria. The fiscal consolidation stance of the government has helped to contain the fiscal deficit below 3.0 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP). This, coupled with the tight monetary policy stance of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), helped to keep inflation low.
According to the NBS “On an aggregate basis the economy when measured by the Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), grew by 6.81 percent in the third quarter of 2013. This was higher than the 6.18 per cent recorded in the second quarter of 2013 and 6.48 percent recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2012.
“The nominal GDP for the third quarter of 2013 was estimated at N11.16602639 trillion, up from the N10.96727289 trillion estimated for the corresponding quarter of 2012 by 1.81 percent, and N10.20483797 trillion recorded in the second quarter of 2013 by 9.41 percent
“The economy, can be broadly classified into two output groups: Oil and Non-oil sectors. Supply disruptions continue to hamper output in the oil sector. Non-oil sector output increased in the third quarter of 2013 however. The non-oil sector growth was driven by growth in activities recorded in the agriculture, hotels & restaurants, building & construction and telecommunications sectors. The average daily production of crude oil in the third quarter of 2013 was recorded at 2.26 mil-lion barrels per day, an increase from 2.11 mil-lion barrels per day recorded in the second quarter of the year. Crude production was however lower compared to the 2.52 million barrels per day recorded in the third quarter of 2012. These figures with their associated gas components, resulted in a decline in the growth (year-on year) of the value added of output in oil GDP by 0.53 percent for the third quarter of 2013, an increase from the negative 1.15 percent growth recorded in the second quarter of 2013 and but lower from the 0.08 percent growth recorded in the corresponding period of 2012
While disruptions to Nigerian oil exports continued in daily average crude oil production rose to 2.26 million barrels from 2.11 million barrels in the previous quarter. Crude output declined from 2.52 million barrels a day in the third quarter of 2012. Supply disruptions continue to hamper output in the oil sector,” the statistics bureau said.

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Economy

Nigeria champions African-Arab trade to boost agribusiness, industrial growth

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The Arab Africa Trade Bridges (AATB) Program and the Federal Republic of Nigeria formalized a partnership with the signing of the AATB Membership Agreement, officially welcoming Nigeria as the Program’s newest member country. The signing ceremony took place in Abuja on the sidelines of the 5th AATB Board of Governors Meeting, hosted by the Federal Government of Nigeria.

The Membership Agreement was signed by Eng. Adeeb Y. Al Aama, the CEO of the International Islamic Trade Finance Corporation (ITFC) and AATB Program Secretary General, and H.E. Mr. Wale Edun, Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Federal Republic of Nigeria. The Agreement will provide a strategic and operational framework to support Nigeria’s efforts in trade competitiveness, promote export diversification, strengthen priority value chains, and advance capacity-building efforts in line with national development priorities. Areas of collaboration will include trade promotion, agribusiness modernization, SME development, businessmen missions, trade facilitation, logistics efficiency, and digital trade readiness.

The Honourable Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr. Wale Edun, called for deeper trade collaboration between African and Arab nations, stressing the importance of value-added Agribusiness and industrial partnerships for regional growth. Speaking in Abuja at the Agribusiness Matchmaking Forum ahead of the AATB Board of Governors Meeting, the Minister said the shifting global economy makes it essential for African and Arab nations to rely more on regional cooperation, investment and shared markets.

He highlighted projections showing Arab-Africa trade could grow by more than US$37 billion in the next three years and urged partners to prioritize value addition rather than raw commodity exports. He noted that Nigeria’s growing industrial base and upcoming National Single Window reforms will support efficiency, investment and private-sector expansion.

“This is a moment to turn opportunity into action”, he said. “By working together, we can build stronger value chains, create jobs and support prosperity across our regions”, Edun emphasized. “As African and Arab nations embark on this journey of deeper trade collaboration, the potential for growth and development is vast. With a shared vision and commitment to value-added partnerships, we can unlock new opportunities, drive economic growth, and create a brighter future for our people.”

Speaking during the event, Eng. Adeeb Y. Al Aama, Chief Executive Officer of ITFC and Secretary General of the AATB Program, stated: “We are pleased to welcome Nigeria to be part of the AATB Program. Nigeria stands as one of Africa’s most dynamic and resilient economies in Africa, with a rapidly expanding private sector and strong potential across agribusiness, energy, manufacturing, and digital industries. Through this Membership Agreement, we look forward to collaborating closely with Nigerian institutions to strengthen value chains, expand regional market access, enhance trade finance and investment opportunities, and support the country’s development priorities.”

The signing of this Agreement underscores AATB’s continued engagement with African countries and its evolving portfolio of programs supporting trade and investment. In recent years, AATB has worked on initiatives across agribusiness, textiles, logistics, digital trade, export readiness under the AfCFTA framework, and other regional initiatives such as the Common African Agro-Parks (CAAPs) Programme.

With Nigeria’s accession, the AATB Program extends it’s presence in the region and adds a key partner working toward advancing trade-led development and fostering inclusive economic growth.

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Economy

FEC approves 2026–2028 MTEF, projects N34.33trn revenue 

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Federal Executive Council (FEC) has approved the 2026–2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF), a key fiscal document that outlines Nigeria’s revenue expectations, macroeconomic assumptions, and spending priorities for the next three years. The approval followed Wednesday’s FEC meeting presided over by President Bola Tinubu at the State House, Abuja. The Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Senator Atiku Bagudu made this known after the meeting.

The Minister said the Federal Government is projecting a total revenue inflow of N34.33 trillion in 2026, including N4.98 trillion expected from government-owned enterprises. Bagudu said that the projected revenue is N6.55 trillion lower than earlier estimates, adding that federal allocations are expected to drop by about N9.4 trillion, representing a 16% decline compared to the 2025 budget.

He said that statutory transfers are expected to amount to about N3 trillion within the same fiscal year. On macroeconomic assumptions, FEC adopted an oil production benchmark of 2.6 million barrels per day (mbpd) for 2026, although a more conservative 1.8 mbpd will be used for budgeting purposes. An oil price benchmark of $64 per barrel and an exchange rate of N1,512 per dollar were also approved.

Bagudu said the exchange rate assumption reflects projections tied to economic and political developments ahead of the 2027 general elections. He said the exchange rate assumption took into account the fiscal outlook ahead of the 2027 general elections.

The minister said that all the parameters were based on macroeconomic analysis by the Budget Office and other relevant agencies. Bagudu said FEC also reviewed comments from cabinet members before approving the Medium-Term Fiscal Expenditure Ceiling (MFTEC), which sets expenditure limits. Earlier, the Senate approved the external borrowing plan of $21.5 billion presented by President Tinubu for consideration The loans, according to the Senate, were part of the MTEF and Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP) for the 2025 budget.

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Economy

CBN hikes interest on treasury Bills above inflation rate

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The spot rate on Nigerian Treasury bills has been increased by 146 basis points by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) following tight subscription levels at the main auction on Wednesday. The spot rate on Treasury bills with one-year maturity has now surpassed Nigeria’s 16.05% inflation by 145 basis points following a recent decision to keep the policy rate at 27%. 

The Apex Bank came to the primary market with N700 billion Treasury bills offer size across standard tenors, including 91-day, 182-day and 364 day maturities. Details from the auction results showed that demand settled slightly above the total offers as investors began to seek higher returns on naira assets despite disinflation.

Total subscription came in at about N775 billion versus N700 billion offers floated at the main auction. The results showed rising appetite for duration as investors parked about 90% of their bids on Nigerian Treasury bills with 364 days maturity. The CBN opened N100 billion worth of 91 days bills for subscription, but the offer received underwhelming bids totalling N44.17 billion.

The CBN allotted N42.80 billion for the short-term instrument at the spot rate of 15.30%, the same as the previous auction. Total demand for 182 days Nigerian Treasury bills settled at N33.38 billion as against N150 billion that the authority pushed out for subscription. The CBN raised N30.36 billion from 182 days bills allotted to investors at the spot rate of 15.50%, the same as the previous auction.

Investors staked N697.29 billion on N450 billion in 364-day Treasury bills that was offered for subscription. The CBN raised N636.46 billion from the longest tenor at the spot rate of 17.50%, up from 16.04% at the previous auction.

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