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Sanusi suspension storm!

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The suspension of Sanusi Lamido Sanusi from office as Governor of Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) sent shock waves into the financial market but did not damage the market as previously feared. The shock was short lived as the Federal Government quickly named his successor. The CBN Governor-nominee, Godwin Emefiele, is seen by local and international investors as a steady hand who will maintain tight monetary policy in the face of currency weakness and avoid his predecessor’s controversial foray into politics.

President Goodluck Jonathan swiftly nominated Emefiele as governor-disignate after suspending Sanusi, who had become an increasingly vocal critic of the government’s record on corruption. His early departure caused a panic sell off in financial markets, although currency and stocks have now stabilised.

Emefiele, who, at 52, is the same age as Sanusi, boasts of more than 20 years experience in the banking sector. He is the Managing Director of Zenith Bank, Nigeria’s fastest growing new generation bank, where he has built a well-capitalised and stable institution, banking sources say.

“He’s done a solid job at Zenith and is likely to be a steady hand who will be calm, but markets are jittery right now. The Nigerian Stock Market had a reversed fortune on the back of the CBN Governor’s suspension as the Nigerian Stock Exchange NSE; All Share Index lost 147 basis points to close at 38,816.19. In the same vein, the market capitalisation shrank by N186.6billion to close at N12.4trillion. However, despite the shock, activity level, as measured by volume and value, surprisingly advanced 59.4 per cent and 27.7 per cent to close at 484million units and N4.9trillion respectively.

As expected, all sector indices declined with the exception of the NSE Industrial Index which advanced slightly by 0.2 per cent on account of gains in Dangote Cement 1.9 per cent. “The NSE Banking Index lost a whopping 4.5 per cent as all banks closed in the red. This loss can be primarily attributed to losses in UBA 7.5 per cent, FCMB 7.1 per cent and ETI 6.2 per cent.

The oil and gas sector followed suit with a 2.7 per cent loss on the day of the suspension mainly attributable to Oando 6.4 per cent and Eterna Oil 4.9 per cent. Lastly, the Consumer Goods and Insurance Index lost 1.8 per cent and 1.2 per cent a piece. These losses were driven by capital reversals on the back of the CBN Governor’s suspension. The market breadth of 0.19x buttresses the negative market sentiments with only nine stocks advancing as against 46 decliners. Top gainers for the day were Oasis Insurance 8.6 per cent, Neimeth 5.8 per cent and PZ 5.0 per cent while top losers were UBA 7.5 per cent, Vitafoam 7.4 per cent and FCMB 7.1 per cent.

By Monday, however, the capital market had absorbed the shock as the NSE All Share Index started the week on a positive note with a 108basis points appreciation, to close at 38,707.14. This gain was attributed to Dangote Cement 1.0 per cent, Zenith Bank 3.3 per cent and First Bank 4.9 per cent. Similarly, market capitalization gained N132.0bn to close at N12.4tn.

But activity level, measured by volume and value, declined 34.9 per cent and 11.1 per cent to N337.0million and N3.1billion respectively. The Banking sector reversed its losing streak, rebounding 2.6 per cent driven by UBA 8.7 per cent, FBN 4.9 per cent and Diamond Bank 4.9 per cent. The oil & gas index followed suit losing 1.1% on the back of the gains in Oando 2.7 per cent; while the industrial index 0.6 per cent was driven by price appreciation in CCNN 3.1 per cent and Dangote Cement 1.0 per cent. The insurance index lost 1.4 per cent on the back of Wapic Insurance 5.6 per cent, AIICO Insurance 5.0 per cent and Continental Reinsurance 4.6 per cent

 

Sustained gains

28 stocks advanced against 18 declined stocks tilting the market breadth to1.6x. Top gainers for that Monday were UBA 8.7 per cent, Dangote Sugar 7.9 per cent and FBN Holdings 4.9 per cent while top losers were WAPIC 5.6 per cent, AIICO Insurace 5.0 per cent and Cadbury 5.0 per cent.

On Tuesday, the NSE All Share Index sustained its gains with 117 basis points appreciation to close at 39,160.10. The Tuesday’s gains were driven mostly by tier one banks such as FBN Holdings 9.7 per cent, GTB 3.7 per cent and Zenith Bank 3.4 per cent. Similarly, the market capitalization added N146.0bn to close at N12.6trn and activity level, measured by volume and value, appreciated 21.4% and 42.0% to close at N409.5m and N4.4bn respectively.

The consumer goods sector index was the lone sector decliner 0.3 per cent driven by selling pressures in Unilever 5.0 per cent and PZ Cussons 2.9 per cent. The NSE banking index topped the sector 4.1 per cent, spurred by gains in Skye Bank 10.1 per cent, FBN Holdings 9.7 per cent and UBA 6.5 per cent. Similarly, NSE insurance index advanced 1.8 per cent supported by gains in International Energy 5.0 per cent, Continental Reinsurance 4.8 per cent and NEM Insurance 4.0 per cent. The NSE industrial index and the oil & gas index also both gained 0.3 per cent and 0.2 per cent  apiece. Market breadth sustained its positive trend at 0.43x as 42 stocks advanced against 18 decliners. Top gainers at the end of the Tuesday session were Skye Bank 10.1 per cent, FBNH 9.7 per cent and UBA 6.5 per cent; whilst Unilever 5.0 per cent, Betaglass 5.1 per cent and Evans Medical 4.9 per cent led the losers table. We expect a moderate increase in participation as investors weigh the potential to sustain this upside.

The incoming Governor and the Naira

The biggest challenge for the incoming CBN Governor is protecting the Naira, which has come under pressure over the past year on concerns that reduced U.S. monetary stimulus fund inflows to emerging markets. The Naira slumped to a record low of N169.25 to the dollar in the wake of Sanusi’s suspension and was trading at around N163.5 to the dollar on Tuesday, outside the bank’s preferred N150-160/$ range.

Repeated intervention by the CBN to keep the Naira within the band has run down foreign exchange reserves, and liquid reserves have declined by about $2.2 billion or 5.2 percent from $42.46 billion at the start of 2014. That is about $45 million a day and raises the prospect that interest rates, which have been on hold at 12 percent since October 2011, may have to rise at some point this year to protect the currency.

“We expect he will maintain the current monetary policy tightening stance,” Vetiva Capital said in a research note. In the short term, we believe the currency will remain under pressure which would require continuous monetary tightening – restraining loan growth within a high interest rate environment,” it added.

Investors and analysts expect the new Governor to be more discreet than Sanusi, who was often criticised by government officials for going far beyond his remit, happy to talk openly about anything from bloated government spending to the social problems which are feeding a bloody Islamist insurgency in north-east Nigeria.

Emefiele won’t dip into politics, given the manner of Sanusi’s exit, analysts say, and was described by several banking sources as a conservative figure who appears confident in public but gives little away.

Devaluation fear

Foreign investors hold around $7 billion in Nigerian fixed income assets, down from $9 billion in November, banking sources say. This is likely to dwindle further in the coming months, heaping pressure on the naira. Bank of America Merrill Lynch downgraded its rating on Nigeria’s external debt to underweight from market weight on Tuesday, adding that it expects the naira to weaken to N170 against the dollar this year, despite tight monetary policy. Yvonne Mhango, an economist at Renaissance Capital, expects forex reserves to fall to $35 billion by the end of this year and thinks Emefiele will be forced to devalue the midpoint in the Naira exchange band to 170/$ in July.

But the CBN, on Wednesday, conducted special foreign exchange sales, which halted the depreciation of the Naira in the inter-bank market. The intervention arrested the inter-bank exchange rate which had risen to N167 per dollar by 1.30pm and forced it to decline to N163 per dollar. The Acting Governor of the CBN, Dr (Mrs) Sarah Alade, in a telephone conference with foreign investors and foreign exchange dealers reiterated the commitment of the apex bank to defending the Naira.

A senior foreign exchange analyst who participated in the conference said Alade told participants, which included global financial firms like J.P Morgan, that the CBN will defend the Naira with the external reserves. She said that the apex bank does not plan or intend to devalue the Naira. It was gathered that most the participants expressed apprehension that the CBN might eventually devalue the Naira, given the continued decline in the nation’s external reserves.

 Drop in reserves

Last week Nigeria’s external reserves dropped by $740 million to $41.17 from $41.91 the previous week. Cumulatively the external reserves have declined by $2.44 billion from $43.61 billion at the beginning of last year. The Acting Governor, however, dismissed the concerns, saying devaluation is not on the table and will not be on the table of the apex bank. She said that decision on the CRR and monetary tightening will be based on the outcome of the review of economic development at the next Monetary Policy Committee meeting. The conference call was aimed at assuring foreign and local investors of the stability in Nigeria’s monetary policy as a result of the rising demand for foreign exchange, which is believed to be driven by speculations that apex bank might abandon its policy to defend the Naira.

While the official exchange rate was stable at N155.75, the inter-bank market rose sharply in the morning to reach N167 per dollar by 1.30 pm. Realising that the inter-bank rate might cross N170 per dollar before the end of the day, the apex bank intervened with special foreign exchange sale, which ranged from $1 million to $5 million per bank.

But the Naira depreciated further at the parallel market due to the scarcity of foreign exchange. From N170 per dollar, the parallel market exchange rate rose to N172 per dollar, indicating 200 kobo depreciation for the Naira. According to BDC operators, there is scarcity of dollars because the banks are not selling.

From all indication, calm has returned to the financial market as local and foreign investors are convinced that the CBN Governor-nominee will maintain policy posture that will advance the cause of both markets and the economy. It is now left for the Senate to confirm the governor nominee to give complete assurance to both the local and foreign financial markets.

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As EU plans Russian Gas exit, Ministers to convene in Paris to chart Africa’s export potential

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In the wake of seismic shifts in the European energy landscape, the Invest in African Energy (IAE) 2026 Forum in Paris will host a Ministerial Dialogue on “Unlocking Africa’s Gas Supply for Global Energy Security.” This strategic session will examine how Africa can turn its untapped gas reserves into a reliable and sustainable source of supply. With Europe seeking to diversify away from Russian gas, the dialogue highlights both the continent’s growing role in global energy markets and the opportunity for African producers to attract long-term investment. Recent developments underscore the urgency of Africa’s role in global energy security. Last month, EU countries agreed to phase out their remaining Russian gas imports, with existing contracts benefiting from a transition period: short-term contracts can continue until June 2026, while long-term contracts will run until January 2028. In parallel, the European Commission is pushing to end Russian LNG imports by January 2027 under a broader sanctions package aimed at limiting Moscow’s energy revenues.

Africa’s role in this rebalancing is already gaining momentum. Algeria recently renewed its gas supply agreement with ČEZ Group, ensuring continued deliveries to the Czech Republic. In Libya, the National Oil Corporation (NOC) has approved new compressors at the Bahr Essalam field to boost output and reinforce flows via the Greenstream pipeline to Italy. These developments complement the Structures A&E offshore project – led by Eni and the NOC – which is expected to bring two platforms online by 2026 and produce up to 750 million cubic feet per day, supporting both domestic and European demand. West Africa is pursuing ambitious export routes as well.

Nigeria, Algeria and Niger have revived the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline (TSGP), with engineering firm Penspen commissioned earlier this year to revalidate its feasibility. The proposed $25 billion Nigeria–Morocco pipeline is also advancing as a long-term corridor linking West African gas to European markets. Meanwhile, the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim (GTA) project off Mauritania and Senegal came online earlier this year, with its first phase targeting 2.3 million tons of LNG annually. In June, the project delivered its third cargo to Belgium’s Zeebrugge terminal, marking the first African LNG shipment from GTA to Europe. Together, these milestones underscore a strategic convergence: African producers are accelerating efforts to scale up exports just as Europe intensifies its search for reliable alternatives to Russian gas.

Yet, as the ministerial session will explore, unlocking Africa’s gas supply demands sustained investment, regulatory alignment, environmental management and community engagement. For Europe, diversification of supply is a strategic necessity; for African producers, it is an opportunity to accelerate development, build infrastructure and secure long-term capital. At IAE 2026, these shifts will be examined by the officials and stakeholders driving them. The Ministerial Dialogue brings African energy leaders together with European policymakers, industry players and investors in a setting that supports practical, solution-focused discussion on supply, export strategies and future cooperation. As Europe adapts its gas strategy and African producers progress major projects, the Forum provides a direct platform for ministers to outline priorities and for investors to engage with key decision-makers.

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Authorities must respond as digital tools used by organized criminals accelerate financial crime—IMF

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International Monetary Fund IMF, has said that criminals are outpacing enforcement by adapting ever faster ways to carry out digital fraud. The INF in a Blog post said the Department of Justice in June announced the largest-ever US crypto seizure: $225 million from crypto scams known as pig butchering, in which organized criminals, often across borders, use advanced technology and social engineering such as romance or investment schemes to manipulate victims. This typically involves using AI-generated profiles, encrypted messaging, and obscured blockchain transactions to hide and move stolen funds. It was a big win. Federal agents collaborated across jurisdictions and used blockchain analysis and machine learning to track thousands of wallets used to scam more than 400 victims. Yet it was also a rare victory that underscored how authorities often must play catch-up in a fast-changing digital world. And the scammers are still out there. They pick the best tools for their schemes, from laundering money through crypto and AI-enabled impersonation to producing deepfake content, encrypted apps, and decentralized exchanges. Authorities confronting anonymous, borderless threats are held back by jurisdiction, process, and legacy systems.
Annual illicit crypto activity growth has averaged about 25 percent in recent years and may have surpassed $51 billion last year, according to Chainalysis, a New York–based blockchain analysis firm specializing in helping criminal investigators trace transactions. Bad actors still depend on cash and traditional finance, and money laundering specifically relies on banks, informal money changers, and cash couriers. But the old ways are being reinforced or supercharged by technologies to thwart detection and disruption.
Encrypted messaging apps help cartels coordinate cross-border transactions. Stablecoins and lightly regulated virtual asset platforms can hide bribes and embezzled funds. Cybercriminals use AI-generated identities and bots to deceive banks and evade outdated controls. Tracking proceeds generated by organized crime is nearly impossible for underresourced agencies. AI lowers barriers to entry. Fraudsters with voice-cloning and fake-document generators bypass the verification protocols many banks and regulators still use. Their innovation is growing as compliance systems lag. Governments recognize the threats, but responses are fragmented and uneven—including in regulation of crypto exchanges. And there are delays implementing the Financial Action Task Force’s (FATF’s) “travel rule” to better identify those sending and receiving money across borders, which most digital proceeds cross.
Meanwhile, international financial flows are increasingly complicated by instant transfers on decentralized platforms and anonymity-enhancing tools. Most payments still go through multiple intermediaries, often layering cross-border transactions through antiquated correspondent banks that obscure and delay transactions while raising costs. This helps criminals exploit oversight gaps, jurisdictional coordination, and technological capacity to operate across borders, often undetected.
Regulators and fintechs should be partners, and sustained multilateral engagement should foster fast, cheap, transparent, and traceable cross-border payments. There’s a parallel narrative. Criminals exploit innovation for secrecy and speed while companies and governments test coordination to reduce vulnerabilities and modernize cross-border infrastructure. At the same time, technological implications remain underexplored with respect to anti–money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism, or AML/CFT. Singapore’s and Thailand’s linked fast payment systems, for example, enable real-time retail transfers using mobile numbers; Indonesia and Malaysia have connected QR codes for cross-border payments. Such innovations offer efficiency and inclusion yet raise new issues regarding identity verification, transaction monitoring, and regulatory coordination.
In India, the Unified payments interface enables seamless transfers across apps and platforms, highlighting the power of interoperable design. More than 18 billion monthly transactions, many across competing platforms, show how openness and standardization drive scale and inclusion. Digital payments in India grew faster when interoperability improved, especially in fragmented markets where switching was costly, IMF research shows These regional innovations and global initiatives reflect a growing understanding that fighting crime and fostering inclusion are interlinked priorities—especially as criminals speed ahead. The FATF echoed this concern, urging countries to design AML/CFT controls that support inclusion and innovation. Moreover, an FATF June recommendation marks a major advance: Requiring originator and beneficiary information for cross-border wire transfers—including those involving virtual assets—will enhance traceability across the fast-evolving digital financial ecosystem.
Efforts like these are important examples of how technology enables criminal advantage, but technology must also be part of the regulatory response.
Modernizing cross-border payment systems and reducing unintended AML/CFT barriers increasingly means focusing on transparency, interoperability, and risk-based regulation. The IMF’s work on “safe payment corridors” supports this by helping countries build trusted, secure channels for legitimate financial flows without undermining new technology. A pilot with Samoa —where de-risking has disrupted remittances—showed how targeted safeguards and collaboration with regulated providers can preserve access while maintaining financial integrity without disrupting the use of new payment platforms.
Several countries, with IMF guidance, are investing in machine learning to detect anomalies in cross-border financial flows, and others are tightening regulation of virtual asset service providers. Governments are investing in their own capacity to trace crypto transfers, and blockchain analytics firms are often employed to do that. IMF analysis of cross-border flows and the updated FATF rules are mutually reinforcing. If implemented cohesively, they can help digital efficiency coexist with financial integrity. For that to happen, legal frameworks must adapt to enable timely access to digital evidence while preserving due process. Supervisory models need to evolve to oversee both banks and nonbank financial institutions offering cross-border services. Regulators and fintechs should be partners, and sustained multilateral engagement should foster fast, cheap, transparent, and traceable cross-border payments—anchored interoperable standards that also respect privacy.
Governments must keep up. That means investing in regulatory technology, such as AI-powered transaction monitoring and blockchain analysis, and giving agencies tools and expertise to detect complex crypto schemes and synthetic identity fraud. Institutions must keep pace with criminals by hiring and retaining expert data scientists and financial crime specialists. Virtual assets must be brought under AML/CFT regulation, public-private partnerships should codevelop tools to spot emerging risks, and global standards from the FATF and the Financial Stability Board must be backed by national investments in effective AML/CFT frameworks.
Consistent and coordinated implementation is important. Fragmented efforts leave openings for criminals. Their growing technological advantage over governments threatens to undermine financial integrity, destabilize economies, weaken already fragile institutions, and erode public trust in systems meant to ensure safety and fairness. As crime rings adopt and adapt emerging technologies to outpace enforcement, the cost is not only fiscal—it is structural and systemic. Governments can’t wait. The criminals won’t.

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Multilateral development banks reaffirm commitment to climate finance, pledge innovative funding for adaptation

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Multilateral development banks have reaffirmed their commitment to climate finance, pledging to scale up innovative funding to boost climate adaptation and resilience. “Financing climate resilience is not a cost, but an investment.” This was the key message from senior MDB officials at the end of a side event organised by the Climate Investment Funds (CIF) on the opening day of the 30th United Nations Climate Conference (COP30) in Belém, Brazil.

The conference runs from 10 to 21 November. During a panel discussion titled “Accelerating large-scale climate change adaptation,” MDB representatives, including the African Development Bank Group, outlined how their institutions are fulfilling Paris Agreement commitments by mobilising substantial and innovative resources for climate adaptation and mitigation. Ilan Goldfajn, President of the Inter-American Development Bank Group, emphasised that “resilience is more than a concern for the future: it is also essential for development today.” He announced that MDBs are tripling their financing for resilience over the next decade, targeting $42 billion by 2030.

“At the Inter-American Development Bank, we are turning preparedness into protection and resilience into opportunity,” Goldfajn added. Tanja Faller, Director of Technical Evaluation and Monitoring at the Council of Europe Development Bank, stressed that climate change “not only creates new threats, but also amplifies existing inequalities. The most socially vulnerable people are the hardest hit and the last to recover. This is how a climate crisis also becomes a social crisis.” Representatives from the Islamic Development Bank, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, the Asian Development Bank, the World Bank Group, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development,  the European Investment Bank, the New Development Bank and IDB Invest (the private sector arm of the Inter-American Development Bank Group) also shared concrete examples of successful adaptation investments and strategies for mobilising new resources.

Kevin Kariuki, Vice President of the African Development Bank Group in charge of Power, Energy, Climate and Green Growth, presented the Bank’s leadership in advancing climate adaptation and mitigation. “At the African Development Bank, we understand the priorities of our countries: adaptation and mitigation are at the heart of our climate interventions.” He highlighted the creation of the Climate Action Window, a new financing mechanism under the African Development Fund, the Bank Group’s concessional window for low-income countries.

“The African Development Bank is the only multilateral development bank with a portfolio of adaptation projects ready for investment through the Climate Action Window,” Kariuki noted, adding that Germany, the United Kingdom and Switzerland are among key co-financing partners. Kariuki also showcased the Bank’s YouthADAPT programme, which has invested $5.4 million in 41 youth-led enterprises across 20 African countries, generating more than 10,000 jobs — 61 percent of which are led by women, and mobilising an additional $7 million in private and donor funding.

Representatives from Zambia, Mozambique and Jamaica also shared local perspectives on the financing needs of communities most exposed to climate risk. The panel followed the official opening of COP30, marked by a passionate appeal from Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for greater climate investment to prevent a “tragedy for humanity.”

“Without the Paris Agreement, we would see a 4–5°C increase in global temperatures,” Lula warned. “Our call to action is based on three pillars: honouring commitments; accelerating public action with a roadmap enabling humanity to move away from fossil fuels and deforestation; and placing humanity at the heart of the climate action programme: thousands of people are living in poverty and deprivation as a result of climate change. The climate emergency is a crisis of inequality,” he continued.

“We must build a future that is not doomed to tragedy. We must ensure that we live in a world where we can still dream.” Outgoing COP President Mukhtar Babayevn, Azerbaijan’s Minister of Ecology, urged developed nations to fulfil their promises made at the Baku Conference, including commitments to mobilise $300 billion in climate finance. He called for stronger political will and multilateral cooperation, before handing over the COP presidency to Brazilian diplomat André Corrêa do Lago, who now leads the negotiations.

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