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Nigeria, Indonesia and Mexico set to push UK and France out of top 10 by 2050

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Emerging economies of Nigeria, Indonesia and Mexico could push the UK and France out of the top ten economies of the world by 2050 provided they are able to build their institutions to global standards, diversify their economies and sustain growth friendly policies.
This is one of the key findings from the latest report from PwC economists on The World in 2050: Will the shift in global economic power continue? This presents long-term projections of potential GDP growth up to 2050 for 32 of the largest economies in the world, covering 84% of total global GDP.
According to the report, the current global economic power shift away from the established advanced economies in North America, Western Europe and Japan will continue over the next 35 years – despite a projected slowdown in Chinese growth after around 2020. The world economy is projected to grow at an average of just over 3% per annum from 2014-50 – doubling in size by 2037 and nearly tripling by 2050. But there’s likely to be a slowdown in global growth after 2020, as the rate of expansion in China and some other major emerging economies moderates to a more sustainable long-term rate, and as working age population growth slows in many large economies.
Nigeria, Vietnam and the Philippines are notable risers in the global GDP rankings in the long term, reflecting relatively high projected average growth rates of around 4.5-5.5% per annum over the period to 2050.
Andrew S. Nevin, PwC Nigeria’s Chief Economist and co-author of the report, comments: “Over the past decade, Nigeria has boasted superior economic growth and, with the right reforms and investments, Nigeria could become one of the world’s leading economies by 2030, with further progress by 2050. Nigeria’s potential advantages for future growth include a large consumer market, a strategic geographic location, and a young and highly entrepreneurial population.
However, at the same time, we are all aware of the significant headwinds created by the rapid drop in the oil price, putting pressure on the fiscal and monetary systems, as well as reducing economic growth in the short term. To achieve its long-term economic potential, Nigeria will need to manage the oil price decline effectively at all levels of government and create a sustainable platform for diversification into the sectors that we know will drive the economy in the future – including power, agriculture, manufacturing, telecoms, hospitality and real estate.
Beyond Nigeria, we project that China will be the largest economy by 2030 on any measure. However, we also expect its growth rate to slow markedly after around 2020 as its population ages, its high investment rate runs into diminishing marginal returns and it needs to rely more on innovation than copying to boost productivity. Eventual reversion to the global average has been common for past high growth economies such as Japan and South Korea and we expect China to follow suit.”
The report also contains projections based on GDP at market exchange rates, without this relative price adjustment. On that basis, China is projected to overtake the US in around 2028, while India would clearly be the third largest economy in the world in 2050, but still some way behind the US.

Other highlights from PwC’s projections are:

India has the potential to sustain its higher growth rate for longer and become a $10 trillion economy by around 2020 in purchasing power (PPP) terms, or around 2035 at market exchange rates. But this relies on India making sustained progress on infrastructure investment, institutional reforms and boosting education levels across the whole population.
Emerging economies like Indonesia, Brazil and Mexico have the potential to be larger than the UK and France by 2030, with Indonesia possibly rising as high as 4th place in the world rankings by 2050 if it can sustain growth-friendly policies.
Malaysia is also projected to grow at around 4% per annum on average in the period to 2050, which is higher than China’s projected average growth rate of around 3.5% per annum over this period, and an impressive performance for what is already a middle income country.
Colombia is also an economy that PwC projects to grow at a relatively healthy long term rate of around 4% per annum over the period to 2050, noticeably faster than its larger Southern American neighbours like Brazil and Argentina.
Japanese growth is projected to be the slowest of all 32 countries covered in total terms, driven in part by a steadily declining population; as a result Japan is projected to fall from 4th to 7th place in the global GDP rankings over the period to 2050.
European economies tend to slide down the rankings, with growth rates in the major Eurozone economies projected to average only around 1.5-2% per annum to 2050.
Poland is projected to have the highest average growth rate of the large EU economies, and also to outperform Russia in terms of long-run growth.
These projections assume, however, that emerging markets will follow broadly growth-friendly policies. In practice, not all may do so and therefore not all of these economies will fulfil the potential indicated by the PwC growth projections, although some could also exceed the projections if they can accelerate their investment rates and institutional reforms.

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FG earned N2.78trn from Company Income Tax in second quarter 2025—NBS

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National Bureau of Statistics has said that Nigeria’s Company Income Tax rose sharply in the second quarter of 2025, hitting N2.78 trillion.

The figure represents a significant 40.27 per cent increase compared to the N1.98 trillion recorded in the first quarter of the year, reflecting both improved tax compliance and stronger corporate performance across key economic sectors.

The NBS report said that domestic company income tax payments accounted for the bulk of the revenue, contributing N2.31 trillion, while offshore collections stood at N469.36 billion during the period under review.

According to the NBS, the financial and insurance sector recorded the highest quarter-on-quarter growth, rising by an astonishing 772.29 per cent, driven by improved profitability among banks, fintechs, and insurance firms following robust half-year earnings.

This, according to NBS, was followed by wholesale and retail trade, as well as motor vehicle repair activities, which grew by 538.38%.

Activities of households as employers also surged by 526.79%, although their overall contribution to total company income tax remained negligible.

On the flip side, some sectors experienced sharp declines in company income tax remittances.

Activities of extraterritorial organizations and bodies dropped by –45.01%, while education, public administration, defence, and compulsory social security recorded declines of –26.61% and –18.17% respectively.

The contraction in these sectors, particularly education and public administration, highlights persistent structural and fiscal challenges confronting government-funded institutions.

In terms of contribution to total tax revenue, financial and insurance activities led with a dominant 44.13%, reflecting the sector’s continuing expansion and strong capital flows.

Manufacturing followed with 15.57%, bolstered by increased production output and improved supply chain activity.

Mining and quarrying ranked third, contributing 9.18%, supported by higher commodity prices and renewed interest in solid mineral development.

At the bottom of the contribution chart were activities of households as employers, which accounted for just 0.01%, as well as activities of extraterritorial organizations and bodies, and water supply, sewerage, waste management, and remediation services, each contributing 0.04%. Despite economic headwinds, year-on-year company income tax collection still rose by 12.66% when compared to Q2 2024, underscoring moderate but steady improvement in government revenue mobilisation.

Company income tax collection in the same period of 2024 rose by 150.83 per cent N2.47 trillion. In the first three months of the year, company income tax collection stood at N984.61 billion. According to the report, local payments in the period under review amounted to N1.35 trillion, while foreign CIT payments contributed N1.12 trillion. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the agriculture, forestry, and fishing sectors exhibited the highest growth rate at 474.50%, followed by financial and insurance activities at 429.76%, and manufacturing at 414.15%.

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Lagos govt promises MSMEs continued visibility, market access

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Lagos State government has reaffirmed its unwavering commitment to supporting micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) across the state through visibility, capacity building, and market access. Commissioner for Commerce, Cooperatives, Trade, and Investment, Folashade Ambrose-Medebem, made the pledge on Sunday at the closing ceremony of the 2025 Lagos International Trade Fair (LITF). The 38th edition of the event, organised by the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI), had its theme as “Connecting Business, Creating Value.”

Ms Ambrose-Medebem said every entrepreneur, regardless of scale, deserves an enabling environment to thrive and contribute meaningfully to the state’s economic prosperity. She said the state, through strategic investments in infrastructure, institutional reforms, and continuous engagement with the private sector, was building a Lagos that worked for business. The commissioner added that the state would continue to foster innovation, competitiveness, and sustainability.

“As a government, we remain steadfast in our commitment to making Lagos the preferred destination for commerce and enterprise. This fair has once again demonstrated the power of connection: connection between producers and consumers, investors and innovators, the government and the private sector, and local entrepreneurs and global brands. Every handshake, every conversation, every business card exchanged here is a building block toward the future we are creating, a future of prosperity that leaves no one behind,” she said.

The commissioner urged businesses to continue to connect, collaborate, and create value, saying, “In Lagos, we do not just trade goods; we trade ideas, build futures, and transform lives. “Together, let us continue to make Lagos not just a place of commerce, but a symbol of progress, innovation, and endless opportunity.” Gabriel Idahosa, president of LCCI, urged governments at all levels to continue addressing the issues of creating an enabling environment in the country.Mr Idahosa said focus should be on infrastructure, security, and implementing the right policies to address the key drivers of high inflation.

This, he said, was needed to fully harness the vast enterprising resources of domestic and foreign investors for the diversification of our economy and the welfare of our people. He pledged the commitment of the organised private sector to stand solidly behind the state in its quest to actualise its innovative initiatives on all fronts. NAN

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Jumia posts $17.7m pre-tax loss in Q3, down 1% in 12 Months

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Jumia Technologies AG posts a $17.7 million loss before income tax in the third quarter of 2025, down 1% year-on-year from $17.8 million in the third quarter of 2024. The road to profitability has remained long as ecommerce continues to face uncertainties, including widening competition with rivals in the same industry. The e-commerce company revenue came in at $45.6 million compared to $36.4 million in the third quarter of 2024, representing a 25% year-over-year surge in the period. The company reported gross merchandise value of $197.2 million compared to $162.9 million in the third quarter of 2024, up 21% year-over-year. Excluding South Africa and Tunisia, physical goods GMV grew 26% year-over-year, Jumia revealed in the unaudited financials.

Jumia said in its report that the GMV growth was driven by supply and strong marketing execution, partially offset by lower corporate sales in Egypt. Excluding corporate sales, GMV in reported currency grew 37% year-over-year. Nigeria’s momentum accelerated, with order growth up 30% and GMV up 43% year-over-year, Jumia said. The e-commerce giant’s operating loss reduced by 13% year-over-year to $17.4 million compared to $20.1 million in the third quarter of 2024. The company’s adjusted earnings before interest tax depreciation and amortisation loss dropped by 17% to $14.0 million compared to $17.0 million in the third quarter of 2024.

Jumia reported a loss before income tax of $17.7 million, a slight reduction of 1% compared to $17.8 million in the third quarter of 2024. Liquidity printed at $82.5 million, a decrease of $15.8 million in the third quarter of 2025, compared to an increase of $71.8 million in the third quarter of 2024, which included the net proceeds from the August 2024 At-the-Market (ATM) offering, and a decrease of $12.4 million in the second quarter of 2025.

Its net cash flow used in operating activities settled at $12.4 million compared to net cash flow used in operating activities of $26.8 million in the third quarter of 2024 and $12.7 million used in the second quarter of 2025. The result includes a positive working capital contribution of $0.4 million.

Jumia reported that customers’ orders grew 34% year-over-year, driven by strong execution, enhanced product assortment, and healthy consumer demand across key categories. It said quarterly active customers ordering physical goods grew by 23% year-over-year, highlighting continued engagement and customer loyalty. As of September 30, 2025, the Company’s liquidity position was $82.5 million, comprised of $81.5 million in cash and cash equivalents and $1.0 million in term deposits and other financial assets, it said in the report Jumia’s liquidity position decreased by $15.8 million in the third quarter of 2025, compared to an increase of $71.8 million in the third quarter of 2024, which included net proceeds from the August 2024 At-the-Market (ATM) offering, and a decrease of $12.4 million in the second quarter of 2025.

Net cash used in operating activities was $12.4 million in the third quarter of 2025, compared to a net cash used of $26.8 million in the third quarter of 2024 and $12.7 million used in the second quarter of 2025. The result includes a positive working capital contribution of $0.4 million in the third quarter of 2025, compared to a negative working capital contribution of $9.1 million in the third quarter of 2024, primarily reflecting improvements in operating performance.

 In addition, the Company reported $1.4 million in capital expenditures in the third quarter of 2025, compared to $0.9 million in the third quarter of 2024, primarily reflecting investments in infrastructure and facility enhancements to support business growth. “This quarter marks a significant acceleration in customer demand and order growth, driven by strong execution across our markets and growing consumer trust in the Jumia brand. We believe Jumia has reached an inflection point as our compelling value proposition, and improved operational discipline position us for sustainable, profitable growth.

“We continue to strengthen our cost structure and sharpen operational discipline, reinforcing our path toward profitability. Our focus remains on execution and customer engagement as we build a more efficient business.
“We believe that we are on track to reach breakeven on a Loss before Income tax basis in Q4 2026 and achieve full-year profitability in 2027, positioning Jumia for long-term growth and value creation.”

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