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Impact of Nigeria coming out of recession will not be immediate on Nigerians’ welfare – NBS

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Nigeria’s Statistician General and Chief Executive Officer of the National Bureau of Statistics Dr Yemi Kale has advised Nigerians to bed patient and wait for the fruits of the economy emergence from recession to begin to show. He said that the effect of Nigeria coming out of recession will not be immediately felt by the people.

Kale made the statement in Abuja at a news conference. He said “There is a different stage Nigeria must go through before the masses will feel the effects of the economy going out of recession. Out of recession is the first step which is very important then the country can talk of economic recovery which is going back to where Nigeria was before the recession”. According to him “Recession is just a technical word; we are comparing 2017 with 2016’’.

Kale attributed the reason Nigerians are not feeling the real impact of the positive economic growth rate on their lives to the structure of the economy which is still largely driven by oil. “Recession is not about the price of your goods, not whether unemployment is going up or down, not whether you have quality education; it’s purely your gross domestic product. “Your outputs of goods and services in the economy are going down and the Gross Domestic Products (GDP) is an accumulation of 46 different economic activities in Nigeria and the overall number.

Explaining the situation he said “Whether positive or negative will determine whether you are in recession or out of recession. Now, within those 46 activities, some sectors will do very well and will be positive, some will do badly, some will do worse and some will stay the same way they are.’’ Kale said the important thing for the country was to maintain the situation so that Nigeria would not go back to recession. According to him, the country must not relax because the GDP is still on the negative side. He said that coming out of recession was not about quality but the quantum of growth.

He added that “there is growth but there is a problem with the distribution across the country.’’ In response to a question that the exit from recession was a political gimmick, the NBS boss said GDP report which showed that Nigeria exited recession in the second quarter was not politically motivated. It is not political because it is the same bureau that gave other negative data. Things have improved but we are not there yet, it is only food prices that are still high.’’ According to him, the bureau is an agency of government that has the independence to carry out survey and publish its findings based on international best practices.

“The fact that the NBS can boldly say, when the Statistician-General is up for renewal, that the economy is in recession and inflation has gone up to 17 per cent, speaks a lot about the integrity of the bureau. So, in terms of bureau doctoring numbers for politicians, I don’t think anyone can make that claim and NBS can never be political. We don’t do it.” The bureau on Sept. 5 announced that Nigeria was out of economic recession. It stated that the nation’s GDP grew by 0.55 per cent (year-on-year) in real terms in the quarter, indicating the emergence of the economy from recession. The bureau stated that the figure indicated the economy was out of recession after five consecutive quarters of contraction since the first quarter of 2016.

An economy is said to be in recession after contracting for three consecutive quarters. The economy slipped into recession in the second quarter of 2016. The bureau, however, stated that the growth recorded in quarter was 2.04 per cent higher than the rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2016 (–1.49 per cent). It stated it was higher by 1.46 per cent points from rate recorded in the preceding quarter, (revised to –0.91 per cent from – 0.52 per cent).

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Nigeria champions African-Arab trade to boost agribusiness, industrial growth

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The Arab Africa Trade Bridges (AATB) Program and the Federal Republic of Nigeria formalized a partnership with the signing of the AATB Membership Agreement, officially welcoming Nigeria as the Program’s newest member country. The signing ceremony took place in Abuja on the sidelines of the 5th AATB Board of Governors Meeting, hosted by the Federal Government of Nigeria.

The Membership Agreement was signed by Eng. Adeeb Y. Al Aama, the CEO of the International Islamic Trade Finance Corporation (ITFC) and AATB Program Secretary General, and H.E. Mr. Wale Edun, Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Federal Republic of Nigeria. The Agreement will provide a strategic and operational framework to support Nigeria’s efforts in trade competitiveness, promote export diversification, strengthen priority value chains, and advance capacity-building efforts in line with national development priorities. Areas of collaboration will include trade promotion, agribusiness modernization, SME development, businessmen missions, trade facilitation, logistics efficiency, and digital trade readiness.

The Honourable Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr. Wale Edun, called for deeper trade collaboration between African and Arab nations, stressing the importance of value-added Agribusiness and industrial partnerships for regional growth. Speaking in Abuja at the Agribusiness Matchmaking Forum ahead of the AATB Board of Governors Meeting, the Minister said the shifting global economy makes it essential for African and Arab nations to rely more on regional cooperation, investment and shared markets.

He highlighted projections showing Arab-Africa trade could grow by more than US$37 billion in the next three years and urged partners to prioritize value addition rather than raw commodity exports. He noted that Nigeria’s growing industrial base and upcoming National Single Window reforms will support efficiency, investment and private-sector expansion.

“This is a moment to turn opportunity into action”, he said. “By working together, we can build stronger value chains, create jobs and support prosperity across our regions”, Edun emphasized. “As African and Arab nations embark on this journey of deeper trade collaboration, the potential for growth and development is vast. With a shared vision and commitment to value-added partnerships, we can unlock new opportunities, drive economic growth, and create a brighter future for our people.”

Speaking during the event, Eng. Adeeb Y. Al Aama, Chief Executive Officer of ITFC and Secretary General of the AATB Program, stated: “We are pleased to welcome Nigeria to be part of the AATB Program. Nigeria stands as one of Africa’s most dynamic and resilient economies in Africa, with a rapidly expanding private sector and strong potential across agribusiness, energy, manufacturing, and digital industries. Through this Membership Agreement, we look forward to collaborating closely with Nigerian institutions to strengthen value chains, expand regional market access, enhance trade finance and investment opportunities, and support the country’s development priorities.”

The signing of this Agreement underscores AATB’s continued engagement with African countries and its evolving portfolio of programs supporting trade and investment. In recent years, AATB has worked on initiatives across agribusiness, textiles, logistics, digital trade, export readiness under the AfCFTA framework, and other regional initiatives such as the Common African Agro-Parks (CAAPs) Programme.

With Nigeria’s accession, the AATB Program extends it’s presence in the region and adds a key partner working toward advancing trade-led development and fostering inclusive economic growth.

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Economy

FEC approves 2026–2028 MTEF, projects N34.33trn revenue 

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Federal Executive Council (FEC) has approved the 2026–2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF), a key fiscal document that outlines Nigeria’s revenue expectations, macroeconomic assumptions, and spending priorities for the next three years. The approval followed Wednesday’s FEC meeting presided over by President Bola Tinubu at the State House, Abuja. The Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Senator Atiku Bagudu made this known after the meeting.

The Minister said the Federal Government is projecting a total revenue inflow of N34.33 trillion in 2026, including N4.98 trillion expected from government-owned enterprises. Bagudu said that the projected revenue is N6.55 trillion lower than earlier estimates, adding that federal allocations are expected to drop by about N9.4 trillion, representing a 16% decline compared to the 2025 budget.

He said that statutory transfers are expected to amount to about N3 trillion within the same fiscal year. On macroeconomic assumptions, FEC adopted an oil production benchmark of 2.6 million barrels per day (mbpd) for 2026, although a more conservative 1.8 mbpd will be used for budgeting purposes. An oil price benchmark of $64 per barrel and an exchange rate of N1,512 per dollar were also approved.

Bagudu said the exchange rate assumption reflects projections tied to economic and political developments ahead of the 2027 general elections. He said the exchange rate assumption took into account the fiscal outlook ahead of the 2027 general elections.

The minister said that all the parameters were based on macroeconomic analysis by the Budget Office and other relevant agencies. Bagudu said FEC also reviewed comments from cabinet members before approving the Medium-Term Fiscal Expenditure Ceiling (MFTEC), which sets expenditure limits. Earlier, the Senate approved the external borrowing plan of $21.5 billion presented by President Tinubu for consideration The loans, according to the Senate, were part of the MTEF and Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP) for the 2025 budget.

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CBN hikes interest on treasury Bills above inflation rate

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The spot rate on Nigerian Treasury bills has been increased by 146 basis points by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) following tight subscription levels at the main auction on Wednesday. The spot rate on Treasury bills with one-year maturity has now surpassed Nigeria’s 16.05% inflation by 145 basis points following a recent decision to keep the policy rate at 27%. 

The Apex Bank came to the primary market with N700 billion Treasury bills offer size across standard tenors, including 91-day, 182-day and 364 day maturities. Details from the auction results showed that demand settled slightly above the total offers as investors began to seek higher returns on naira assets despite disinflation.

Total subscription came in at about N775 billion versus N700 billion offers floated at the main auction. The results showed rising appetite for duration as investors parked about 90% of their bids on Nigerian Treasury bills with 364 days maturity. The CBN opened N100 billion worth of 91 days bills for subscription, but the offer received underwhelming bids totalling N44.17 billion.

The CBN allotted N42.80 billion for the short-term instrument at the spot rate of 15.30%, the same as the previous auction. Total demand for 182 days Nigerian Treasury bills settled at N33.38 billion as against N150 billion that the authority pushed out for subscription. The CBN raised N30.36 billion from 182 days bills allotted to investors at the spot rate of 15.50%, the same as the previous auction.

Investors staked N697.29 billion on N450 billion in 364-day Treasury bills that was offered for subscription. The CBN raised N636.46 billion from the longest tenor at the spot rate of 17.50%, up from 16.04% at the previous auction.

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