Analysis
CBN naira devaluation, what has now changed?
The CBN said two weeks ago that it was planning to review its target band for the naira in the next few days, and depending on where the exchange rate settles, may move its midpoint to between N155 and N156 to the dollar, compared to its current N150.
At the moment, the CBN has a band of 3 per cent above or below N150 per dollar. The move by the CBN has taken many by surprise. Many are asking the question why the need for the exchange rate adjustment going by the tough stance of the CBN Governor Sanusi Lamido Sanusi.
In March this year after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) visited the country and spoke with government, private sector and the banks including the CBN, in its article 1V it said that the naira was over valued. Although a section of the media interpreted as asking for devaluation, the CBN took on the IMF and said there was no basis for asking the country to devalue its currency. The IMF had said that the naira was overvalued and that more exchange rate flexibility would be needed to prevent the Central Bank of Nigeria from running down the foreign currency reserves to fix the rate.
Responding to the statement by the International Monetary Fund that the Nigerian naira is overvalued and increased exchange rate flexibility might be needed in Nigeria, the governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Lamido Sanusi, in an interview with CNBC Africa said: “We do not believe that the naira is overvalued. We do not believe that at a time when the oil price is going up and output is going up, we should be losing the value of our currency.
“We also do not think that it makes sense, if the IMF is concerned about inflation, to ask a country that is import-dependent to devalue its currency. So the advice given by the IMF, frankly, is not based on sound economic logic.” The statement from the IMF had said, “Greater exchange rate stability will prevent one way bets in the foreign exchange market and cushion external shocks. Nigeria’s strong external position and low debt helped mitigate the impact of the global financial crisis. However, a pro-cyclical fiscal stance and an accommodative monetary policy have resulted in high inflation and a loss in international reserves.
“Further monetary tightening may be needed should inflation pressures continue. Moving gradually toward an inflation-targeting regime, once the necessary institutional underpinnings are in place, will help anchor inflation expectations.” At the time also, the House of Representatives, in a reaction, criticised the IMF’s statement and said that the IMF cannot dictate to Nigeria on how to run its economy. The House had said: “Nations are not obliged to agree with the IMF because every nation has a path to economic development, which it has charted for itself. In the case of Nigeria, we have the Vision 2020- 20 agenda. We know what is right for us and we can pursue our goals without the IMF dishing out to us what it feels is the right approach to good governance and economic development. Nigeria won’t just agree to devalue the naira because the IMF says so.”
The International Monetary Fund (IMF), which completed its Article IV Consultation with the top management of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), in accordance with extant agreements, released a report that berated the apex bank for running down the external reserves to prop up the naira rather than allowing it to depreciate in tandem with existing realities on the ground. The IMF, then was of the view that the CBN is not in a position to fund the foreign exchange market the way it is doing – dipping into already dwindling reserves – and that a managed depreciation of the naira is much more preferable to an unavoidable free fall.
After all the emotions, pride and arrogance, the CBN is waking up to reality. The question the CBN should answer now is what has changed between the time the IMF team said the naira was overvalued and now, just six months down the economic history line. Hear Sanusi Lamido Sanusi eat his words: “The CBN is considering allowing the naira to depreciate further by setting a new band of between N155 and N156 to a dollar within which the currency can float. We think at this point we might move the naira to between N155 and N156 to a dollar as a midpoint. The CBN will make its stance on the currency clear next week or two.”
This was even as the naira weakened further against the dollar in the foreign exchange market, closing at N159.52 to the dollar. The naira declined against the U.S dollar on both the inter-bank and CBN window as demand for the dollar outstripped supply at both markets. The CBN Governor stated that the apex bank was determined to keep the naira stable at between N155 and N156 per dollar, saying “People will know that in the next 12 months, we will keep the naira within that band. As long as we are not running out of reserves at an outrageous rate, we’ll try to keep that stability.” According to him, “The CBN has been struggling to keep the naira within a band of three per cent above or below N150 per dollar as oil prices declined and demand for imports surged.”
Nigerians expect better performance of the economy not a deteriorating situation. Is the CBN governor now admitting that in the last six months, things have turned for the worse? Or that he was just playing to the gallery as usual? What has changed? If the naira in the opinion of the apex bank was not overvalued then and the advice from the IMF did not make economic logic or sense, is the crude oil production down? Are prices at the international oil market lower than what they were then? The National Assembly that backed him up in his outburst, where are they now that he has proposed to devalue the naira in line with what he was told was best for the economy six months ago? Will it not have been better if the decision was taken then than now?
To effectively control inflationary pressures, the IMF had suggested then that the CBN should further increase its Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) – the benchmark interest rate at which banks borrow short-term funds from the apex bank. It may be recalled that the CBN raised the MPR in January this year, amid fears of a creeping inflation, by 25 basis points from 6.25 per cent to 6.50 per cent. It further raised it in October to 12 per cent. Other liquidity tightening measures embarked on by the apex bank included raising the cash reserve requirement and liquidity ratio for banks. These were the steps the IMF advised the CBN to take to get the work done. Nigerians must learn to distinguish between an economist who is out to do what he knows will help the economy in the long run from an emotional activist. Is it the government quest for higher volume of naira that now informs the new found wisdom?
Analysis
As EU plans Russian Gas exit, Ministers to convene in Paris to chart Africa’s export potential
In the wake of seismic shifts in the European energy landscape, the Invest in African Energy (IAE) 2026 Forum in Paris will host a Ministerial Dialogue on “Unlocking Africa’s Gas Supply for Global Energy Security.” This strategic session will examine how Africa can turn its untapped gas reserves into a reliable and sustainable source of supply. With Europe seeking to diversify away from Russian gas, the dialogue highlights both the continent’s growing role in global energy markets and the opportunity for African producers to attract long-term investment. Recent developments underscore the urgency of Africa’s role in global energy security. Last month, EU countries agreed to phase out their remaining Russian gas imports, with existing contracts benefiting from a transition period: short-term contracts can continue until June 2026, while long-term contracts will run until January 2028. In parallel, the European Commission is pushing to end Russian LNG imports by January 2027 under a broader sanctions package aimed at limiting Moscow’s energy revenues.
Africa’s role in this rebalancing is already gaining momentum. Algeria recently renewed its gas supply agreement with ČEZ Group, ensuring continued deliveries to the Czech Republic. In Libya, the National Oil Corporation (NOC) has approved new compressors at the Bahr Essalam field to boost output and reinforce flows via the Greenstream pipeline to Italy. These developments complement the Structures A&E offshore project – led by Eni and the NOC – which is expected to bring two platforms online by 2026 and produce up to 750 million cubic feet per day, supporting both domestic and European demand. West Africa is pursuing ambitious export routes as well.
Nigeria, Algeria and Niger have revived the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline (TSGP), with engineering firm Penspen commissioned earlier this year to revalidate its feasibility. The proposed $25 billion Nigeria–Morocco pipeline is also advancing as a long-term corridor linking West African gas to European markets. Meanwhile, the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim (GTA) project off Mauritania and Senegal came online earlier this year, with its first phase targeting 2.3 million tons of LNG annually. In June, the project delivered its third cargo to Belgium’s Zeebrugge terminal, marking the first African LNG shipment from GTA to Europe. Together, these milestones underscore a strategic convergence: African producers are accelerating efforts to scale up exports just as Europe intensifies its search for reliable alternatives to Russian gas.
Yet, as the ministerial session will explore, unlocking Africa’s gas supply demands sustained investment, regulatory alignment, environmental management and community engagement. For Europe, diversification of supply is a strategic necessity; for African producers, it is an opportunity to accelerate development, build infrastructure and secure long-term capital. At IAE 2026, these shifts will be examined by the officials and stakeholders driving them. The Ministerial Dialogue brings African energy leaders together with European policymakers, industry players and investors in a setting that supports practical, solution-focused discussion on supply, export strategies and future cooperation. As Europe adapts its gas strategy and African producers progress major projects, the Forum provides a direct platform for ministers to outline priorities and for investors to engage with key decision-makers.
Analysis
Authorities must respond as digital tools used by organized criminals accelerate financial crime—IMF
International Monetary Fund IMF, has said that criminals are outpacing enforcement by adapting ever faster ways to carry out digital fraud. The INF in a Blog post said the Department of Justice in June announced the largest-ever US crypto seizure: $225 million from crypto scams known as pig butchering, in which organized criminals, often across borders, use advanced technology and social engineering such as romance or investment schemes to manipulate victims. This typically involves using AI-generated profiles, encrypted messaging, and obscured blockchain transactions to hide and move stolen funds. It was a big win. Federal agents collaborated across jurisdictions and used blockchain analysis and machine learning to track thousands of wallets used to scam more than 400 victims. Yet it was also a rare victory that underscored how authorities often must play catch-up in a fast-changing digital world. And the scammers are still out there. They pick the best tools for their schemes, from laundering money through crypto and AI-enabled impersonation to producing deepfake content, encrypted apps, and decentralized exchanges. Authorities confronting anonymous, borderless threats are held back by jurisdiction, process, and legacy systems.
Annual illicit crypto activity growth has averaged about 25 percent in recent years and may have surpassed $51 billion last year, according to Chainalysis, a New York–based blockchain analysis firm specializing in helping criminal investigators trace transactions. Bad actors still depend on cash and traditional finance, and money laundering specifically relies on banks, informal money changers, and cash couriers. But the old ways are being reinforced or supercharged by technologies to thwart detection and disruption.
Encrypted messaging apps help cartels coordinate cross-border transactions. Stablecoins and lightly regulated virtual asset platforms can hide bribes and embezzled funds. Cybercriminals use AI-generated identities and bots to deceive banks and evade outdated controls. Tracking proceeds generated by organized crime is nearly impossible for underresourced agencies. AI lowers barriers to entry. Fraudsters with voice-cloning and fake-document generators bypass the verification protocols many banks and regulators still use. Their innovation is growing as compliance systems lag. Governments recognize the threats, but responses are fragmented and uneven—including in regulation of crypto exchanges. And there are delays implementing the Financial Action Task Force’s (FATF’s) “travel rule” to better identify those sending and receiving money across borders, which most digital proceeds cross.
Meanwhile, international financial flows are increasingly complicated by instant transfers on decentralized platforms and anonymity-enhancing tools. Most payments still go through multiple intermediaries, often layering cross-border transactions through antiquated correspondent banks that obscure and delay transactions while raising costs. This helps criminals exploit oversight gaps, jurisdictional coordination, and technological capacity to operate across borders, often undetected.
Regulators and fintechs should be partners, and sustained multilateral engagement should foster fast, cheap, transparent, and traceable cross-border payments. There’s a parallel narrative. Criminals exploit innovation for secrecy and speed while companies and governments test coordination to reduce vulnerabilities and modernize cross-border infrastructure. At the same time, technological implications remain underexplored with respect to anti–money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism, or AML/CFT. Singapore’s and Thailand’s linked fast payment systems, for example, enable real-time retail transfers using mobile numbers; Indonesia and Malaysia have connected QR codes for cross-border payments. Such innovations offer efficiency and inclusion yet raise new issues regarding identity verification, transaction monitoring, and regulatory coordination.
In India, the Unified payments interface enables seamless transfers across apps and platforms, highlighting the power of interoperable design. More than 18 billion monthly transactions, many across competing platforms, show how openness and standardization drive scale and inclusion. Digital payments in India grew faster when interoperability improved, especially in fragmented markets where switching was costly, IMF research shows These regional innovations and global initiatives reflect a growing understanding that fighting crime and fostering inclusion are interlinked priorities—especially as criminals speed ahead. The FATF echoed this concern, urging countries to design AML/CFT controls that support inclusion and innovation. Moreover, an FATF June recommendation marks a major advance: Requiring originator and beneficiary information for cross-border wire transfers—including those involving virtual assets—will enhance traceability across the fast-evolving digital financial ecosystem.
Efforts like these are important examples of how technology enables criminal advantage, but technology must also be part of the regulatory response.
Modernizing cross-border payment systems and reducing unintended AML/CFT barriers increasingly means focusing on transparency, interoperability, and risk-based regulation. The IMF’s work on “safe payment corridors” supports this by helping countries build trusted, secure channels for legitimate financial flows without undermining new technology. A pilot with Samoa —where de-risking has disrupted remittances—showed how targeted safeguards and collaboration with regulated providers can preserve access while maintaining financial integrity without disrupting the use of new payment platforms.
Several countries, with IMF guidance, are investing in machine learning to detect anomalies in cross-border financial flows, and others are tightening regulation of virtual asset service providers. Governments are investing in their own capacity to trace crypto transfers, and blockchain analytics firms are often employed to do that. IMF analysis of cross-border flows and the updated FATF rules are mutually reinforcing. If implemented cohesively, they can help digital efficiency coexist with financial integrity. For that to happen, legal frameworks must adapt to enable timely access to digital evidence while preserving due process. Supervisory models need to evolve to oversee both banks and nonbank financial institutions offering cross-border services. Regulators and fintechs should be partners, and sustained multilateral engagement should foster fast, cheap, transparent, and traceable cross-border payments—anchored interoperable standards that also respect privacy.
Governments must keep up. That means investing in regulatory technology, such as AI-powered transaction monitoring and blockchain analysis, and giving agencies tools and expertise to detect complex crypto schemes and synthetic identity fraud. Institutions must keep pace with criminals by hiring and retaining expert data scientists and financial crime specialists. Virtual assets must be brought under AML/CFT regulation, public-private partnerships should codevelop tools to spot emerging risks, and global standards from the FATF and the Financial Stability Board must be backed by national investments in effective AML/CFT frameworks.
Consistent and coordinated implementation is important. Fragmented efforts leave openings for criminals. Their growing technological advantage over governments threatens to undermine financial integrity, destabilize economies, weaken already fragile institutions, and erode public trust in systems meant to ensure safety and fairness. As crime rings adopt and adapt emerging technologies to outpace enforcement, the cost is not only fiscal—it is structural and systemic. Governments can’t wait. The criminals won’t.
Analysis
Multilateral development banks reaffirm commitment to climate finance, pledge innovative funding for adaptation
Multilateral development banks have reaffirmed their commitment to climate finance, pledging to scale up innovative funding to boost climate adaptation and resilience. “Financing climate resilience is not a cost, but an investment.” This was the key message from senior MDB officials at the end of a side event organised by the Climate Investment Funds (CIF) on the opening day of the 30th United Nations Climate Conference (COP30) in Belém, Brazil.
The conference runs from 10 to 21 November. During a panel discussion titled “Accelerating large-scale climate change adaptation,” MDB representatives, including the African Development Bank Group, outlined how their institutions are fulfilling Paris Agreement commitments by mobilising substantial and innovative resources for climate adaptation and mitigation. Ilan Goldfajn, President of the Inter-American Development Bank Group, emphasised that “resilience is more than a concern for the future: it is also essential for development today.” He announced that MDBs are tripling their financing for resilience over the next decade, targeting $42 billion by 2030.
“At the Inter-American Development Bank, we are turning preparedness into protection and resilience into opportunity,” Goldfajn added. Tanja Faller, Director of Technical Evaluation and Monitoring at the Council of Europe Development Bank, stressed that climate change “not only creates new threats, but also amplifies existing inequalities. The most socially vulnerable people are the hardest hit and the last to recover. This is how a climate crisis also becomes a social crisis.” Representatives from the Islamic Development Bank, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, the Asian Development Bank, the World Bank Group, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the European Investment Bank, the New Development Bank and IDB Invest (the private sector arm of the Inter-American Development Bank Group) also shared concrete examples of successful adaptation investments and strategies for mobilising new resources.
Kevin Kariuki, Vice President of the African Development Bank Group in charge of Power, Energy, Climate and Green Growth, presented the Bank’s leadership in advancing climate adaptation and mitigation. “At the African Development Bank, we understand the priorities of our countries: adaptation and mitigation are at the heart of our climate interventions.” He highlighted the creation of the Climate Action Window, a new financing mechanism under the African Development Fund, the Bank Group’s concessional window for low-income countries.
“The African Development Bank is the only multilateral development bank with a portfolio of adaptation projects ready for investment through the Climate Action Window,” Kariuki noted, adding that Germany, the United Kingdom and Switzerland are among key co-financing partners. Kariuki also showcased the Bank’s YouthADAPT programme, which has invested $5.4 million in 41 youth-led enterprises across 20 African countries, generating more than 10,000 jobs — 61 percent of which are led by women, and mobilising an additional $7 million in private and donor funding.
Representatives from Zambia, Mozambique and Jamaica also shared local perspectives on the financing needs of communities most exposed to climate risk. The panel followed the official opening of COP30, marked by a passionate appeal from Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for greater climate investment to prevent a “tragedy for humanity.”
“Without the Paris Agreement, we would see a 4–5°C increase in global temperatures,” Lula warned. “Our call to action is based on three pillars: honouring commitments; accelerating public action with a roadmap enabling humanity to move away from fossil fuels and deforestation; and placing humanity at the heart of the climate action programme: thousands of people are living in poverty and deprivation as a result of climate change. The climate emergency is a crisis of inequality,” he continued.
“We must build a future that is not doomed to tragedy. We must ensure that we live in a world where we can still dream.” Outgoing COP President Mukhtar Babayevn, Azerbaijan’s Minister of Ecology, urged developed nations to fulfil their promises made at the Baku Conference, including commitments to mobilise $300 billion in climate finance. He called for stronger political will and multilateral cooperation, before handing over the COP presidency to Brazilian diplomat André Corrêa do Lago, who now leads the negotiations.
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