IMF projects 2.1 per cent growth for Nigeria in 2018 Nigeria

International Monetary Fund IMF has projected a 2.1 per cent growth for the Nigerian economy in 2018. The multilateral financial institution said said that the projected growth in the Nigerian economy will boost the growth in sub Sahara Africa. IMF in its economic outlook published in Washington said “The upgraded forecast reflects improved prospects for Nigeria’s Its growth is set to increase from 0.8 per cent in 2017 to 2.1 per cent in 2018 and 2.3 per cent in 2019, 0.4 percentage point higher than in the April WEO for 2019, on the back of an improved outlook for oil prices”. 

According to the IMF “The recovery in Sub-Saharan Africa is set to continue, supported by the rise in commodity prices. For the region, growth is expected to increase from 2.8 per cent in 2017 to 3.4 per cent this year, rising further to 3.8 per cent in 2019, 0.1 percentage point higher for 2019 than forecast in the April WEO. IMF as a result has raised the 2019 Gross Domestic Product, GDP forecast for West Africa sub region to 2.3 per cent saying that Sub-Saharan African economy is to expand 3.8 per cent next year. The region’s economy will probably expand 3.8 per cent in 2019, the International Monetary Fund said in its World Economic Outlook update. That compares with a 3.7 per cent prediction in April

It said “Despite the weaker‑than-expected first quarter outturn in South Africa, in part due to temporary factors, the economy is expected to recover somewhat over the remainder of 2018 and into 2019 as confidence improvements associated with the new leadership are gradually reflected in strengthening private investment. “Global growth for 2018 and 2019 is projected at 3.9 percent, as forecast in the April 2018 WEO. While headline numbers suggest a broadly unchanged global outlook relative to the April WEO, underlying revisions point to differing prospects across economies. The baseline forecast assumes gradually tightening but still favourable financial conditions, with localised pressures based on differences in fundamentals. Monetary policy normalisation in advanced economies is assumed to proceed in a well-communicated, steady manner. 

Domestic demand growth (notably investment, which has been an important part of the global recovery) is expected to continue at a strong pace, even as overall output growth slows in some cases where it has been above trend for several quarters. In the baseline forecast, the direct contractionary effects of recently announced and anticipated trade measures[1] are expected to be small, as these measures affect only a very small share of global trade so far. The baseline forecast also assumes limited spillovers to market sentiment, even if escalating trade tensions are an important downside risk. Advanced economy growth is expected to remain above trend at 2.4 per cent in 2018—similar to 2017—before easing to 2.2 percent in 2019. The forecast for 2018 is lower by 0.1 percentage point compared to the April WEO, largely reflecting greater-than-expected growth moderations in the euro area and Japan after several quarters of above-potential growth.