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2012 Budget: Expect tough economic conditions next year

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Nigerians should brace up for tough and unfavourable economic conditions in the year 2012 and beyond, says economists, financial analysts and operators in the Nigerian financial market.
This is in reaction to the budget proposal for the year 2012, presented last week by the Federal government to the National Assembly.
According to the analysts who spoke to Vanguard, Nigerians should expect increased government borrowing at the detriment of the real sector, high interest rate, further decline in the naira exchange rate and high inflation rate among others in the coming year.

According to an economic analyst, Mr. Opeyemi Agbaje, who is also Managing Director, Resource and Trust Company Limited, with the President making no provision for oil subsidy in the budget, it is evident that he seeks to pursue the subsidy removal policy.
To this end, he predicted that 2012 is likely to be tough and inflationary, given the tough structural policies enunciated.

In his own view, Mr. David Adonri, Chief Executive Officer, Lambeth Trust and Investment Company Limited, said the reduction in fiscal deficit is insignificant and that it will engender a significant increase in government borrowings which will lead to the crowding out of the productive sector of the economy from the debt market.
Speaking further, he said, “Reduction in fiscal deficit is insignificant. Expectations were high before presentation of the appropriation bill, that Federal government’s share of savings from removal of fuel subsidy will be used to drastically reduce the budget deficit. “Since the deficit is not likely to be financed by ways and means, then, government’s borrowing at any price will continue next year with implication of continued crowding out of the productive real sector.

“The current high interest rate which has taken debt finance in the economy to dangerous levels will certainly persist next year to the detriment of equity capital formation that the economy is in dire need of.
“The paltry increase of allocation to investment via capital expenditure cannot sow the seed for transformation of this economy in the foreseeable future. To force down recurrent expenditure, very stern and radical measures must be taken by the fiscal authorities.

“As it stands, the budget is geared towards sustaining consumption which the domestic productive capacity cannot satisfy due to weak engineering infrastructure base. In an uncertain global economic environment, the expansionary budget with its high debt content is likely to pile more pressure on the exchange rate next year and possibly derail attainment of the single digit inflation rate target.
“In scrutinizing the budget proposal, the National Assembly is advised to adopt a conservative approach by pruning down the excessive recurrent expenditure.”
Mr. Taiwo Oderinde, National Coordinator, Proactive Shareholders Association of Nigeria, PROSAN, lamented the huge amount budgeted for recurrent expenditure.

He queried the rationale behind the planned removal of subsidy when the federal government is not making effort to cut down the recurrent expenditure profile of the country.
He said, “How can more than 70 per cent of the budget be expended on recurrent expenditure. How can such huge amount be budgeted for salaries, bonus, allowances and other expenses of public officers.
“If the federal government is concerned about the economy, it should make effort to cut down on the allowances of public officers. The huge amount expended on National Assembly members and the executive should also be reviewed instead of concentrating on removal of fuel subsidy.

Oderinde said the 2012 budget will cause untold hardship for the masses, adding that a realistic budget only allows for 40 or 45 per cent of recurrent expenditure in the budget.
He noted that only a dummy will support the proposed budget, predicting that a number of protests will emerge next year against the budget if it is eventually passed.
Mr. Seye Adetunmbi, Chief Responsibility Officer, Value Investing Nigeria expressed skepticism on the budget, saying that there is not much to show that there will be a radical departure from the way the affairs of Nigerians are managed come 2012.

“We can only keep hope alive. If the subsidy eventually goes, funds saved or recovered just have to be judiciously managed such that the lot of Nigerians will not be worse off.”
In their review of the budget, researchers at FBN Capital Limited, the investment banking arm of the First Bank Group, said, “The draft does reduce recurrent expenditure’s share of total expenditure by two percentage points to 72 per cent, and the medium-term objective is a share of 70 per cent.

“These are necessarily slow steps to boost the capital budget because the already heavy bill for wages was swollen by generous pre-election increases in 2010 and has risen again as a result of the new minimum wage legislation.
“The main underlying assumptions are plausible in our view. The growth forecast of 7.2 per cent makes allowances for the global headwinds which are yet to have a marked impact on Nigeria. The moment of truth will be the release of the GDP data for the fourth quarter, which is traditionally the strongest of the year. Growth reached 8.4 per cent in fourth quarter 2010.

Commenting further, Adonri, however, said, “Although the budget proposal for 2012 does not inspire sufficient hope that through it, the economy will achieve non inflationary growth that will be beneficial to the equities market, however, the vote for security is commendable and indicative of government’s preparedness to tackle the security challenges threatening the nation’s stability.”
Agbaje also declared that the reduction in recurrent spending in favour of capital expenditure by two per cent, though marginal, is a step in the right direction.
“The reality is that you can not effect a radical reduction in recurrent expenses without a massive restructure of the public service.

“There are other positive aspects of the budget-reduction in deficit; focus on agriculture with interest subsidies, zero duty on agricultural equipment, and other sensible policies. The commitment to power reform is also positive. All however depends on political will and anti-corruption,” he added.

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Afreximbank successfully closed its second Samurai Bond transactions, raising JPY 81.8bn or $527m

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African Export-Import Bank said it has successfully closed its second Samurai bond transaction, securing a total of JPY 81.8 billion (approx. USD 527 million) through Regular and Retail Samurai Bonds offerings.

The execution surpasses the Bank’s 2024 debut issuance size, attracting orders from more than 100 institutional and retail investors, marking a renewed demonstration of strong Japanese investor confidence in the Bank’s credit and its growing presence in the yen capital markets.

On 18 November, Afreximbank priced a JPY 45.8 billion 3-year tranche in the Regular Samurai market following a comprehensive sequence of investor engagement activities leveraging Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD9), including Non-Deal Roadshows (NDRs) in Tokyo, Kanazawa, Kyoto, Shiga and Osaka, a Global Investor Call, and a two-day soft-sounding process which tested investor appetite across 2.5-, 3-, 5-, 7-, and 10-year maturities.

With market expectations of a Bank of Japan interest rate increase, investor demand concentrated in shorter tenors, resulting in a focused 3-year tranche during official marketing.

The tranche attracted strong participation from asset managers (22.3%), life insurers (15.3%), regional corporates, and high-net-worth investors (39.7%).

Concurrently, Afreximbank priced its second Retail Samurai bond on 18 November, a JPY 36.0 billion 3-year tranche, more than double the inaugural JPY 14.1 billion Retail Samurai issuance completed in November 2024.

The 2025 Retail Samurai bond also marks the first Retail Samurai bond issued in Japan in 2025.

Following the amendment to Afreximbank’s shelf registration on 7 November 2025, SMBC Nikko conducted an extensive seven-business-day demand survey through its nationwide branch network, followed by a six-business-day bond offering period.

The offering benefited from strong visibility supported by Afreximbank’s investor engagement across the country, including the Bank’s participation at TICAD9, where Afreximbank hosted the Africa Finance Seminar to introduce Multinational Development Bank’s mandate in Africa and its credit profile to key Japanese institutional investors.

MBC Nikko Securities Inc. acted as Sole Lead Manager and Bookrunner for both the Regular and Retail Samurai transactions. Chandi Mwenebungu, Afreximbank’s Managing Director, Treasury & Markets and Group Treasurer, commented:

“We are pleased with the successful completion of our second Samurai bond transactions, which marked a significant increase from our inaugural Retail Samurai bond in 2024, and which reflect the growing depth of our relationship with Japanese investors.

The strong demand, both in the Regular and Retail offerings, demonstrates sustained confidence in Afreximbank’s credit and mandate.

We remain committed to deepening our engagement in the Samurai market through regular investor activities and continued collaboration with our Japanese partners.”

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Ecobank unveils SME bazaar: a festive marketplace for local entrepreneurs

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Ecobank Nigeria, a member of Africa’s leading pan-African banking group, has announced the launch of the Ecobank SME Bazaar—a two-weekend festive marketplace designed to celebrate local creativity, empower entrepreneurs, and give Lagos residents a premium shopping experience this Detty December. The Bazaar will hold on 29–30 November and 6–7 December at the Ecobank Pan African Centre (EPAC), Ozumba Mbadiwe Road, Victoria Island, Lagos. Speaking ahead of the event, Omoboye Odu, Head of SMEs, Ecobank Nigeria, reaffirmed the bank’s commitment to supporting small and medium-sized businesses, describing them as the heartbeat of Nigeria’s economy. She explained that the Ecobank SME Bazaar was created to enhance visibility for entrepreneurs, expand market access, and support sustainable business growth.
According to her, “This isn’t just a market—it’s a vibrant hub of culture, commerce, and connection. From fresh farm produce to trendy fashion, handcrafted pieces, lifestyle products, and delicious food and drinks, the Ecobank SME Bazaar promises an unforgettable experience for both shoppers and participating SMEs. Whether you’re shopping for festive gifts, hunting for unique finds, or soaking in the Detty December energy, this is the place to be.” Ms. Odu added that participating businesses will enjoy increased brand exposure, deeper customer engagement, and meaningful networking opportunities—making the Bazaar a strong platform for both festive-season sales and long-term business growth. The event is powered by Ecobank in partnership with TKD Farms, Eko Marche, Leyyow, and other SME-focused organisations committed to building sustainable enterprises.

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16 banks have recapitalised before deadline—CBN

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The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has said that16 banks have so far met the new capital requirements for their various licences, some four months before the March 31, 2026 deadline. The apex bank also indicated that 27 other banks have raised capital through various methods in one of the most extensive financial sector reforms since 2004. Addressing journalists at the end of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting in Abuja, CBN Governor Mr Olayemi Cardoso said the banking recapitalisation was going on orderly, consistent with the regulator’s expectations. He said, “We are monitoring developments, and indications show the process is moving in the right direction.” Nigeria has 44 deposit-taking banks, including seven commercial banks with international authorisation, 15 with national authorisation, four with regional authorisation, four non-interest banks, six merchant banks, seven financial holding companies and one representative office.
Cardoso explained that eight commercial banks had met the N500 billion capital requirement as of July 22, 2024, rising to 14 by September of the same year. The number has now increased to 16 as the industry continues to race toward full compliance. He said that the reforms would reinforce the resilience of Nigerian banks both within the country and across the continent. “We are building a financial system that will be fit for purpose for the years ahead. Many Nigerian banks now operate across Africa and have been innovative across different markets. These new buffers will better equip them to manage risks in the multiple jurisdictions where they operate,” Cardoso said. According to him, the reforms would strengthen the financial sector’s capability to support households and businesses. He said, “Ultimately, this benefits Nigerians—our traders, our businesses and our citizens—who operate across those regions. “It should give everyone comfort to know that Nigerian banks with deep local understanding are present to support them. Commercial banks are also creating their own buffers through the ongoing recapitalisation.”
He added that the apex bank considered several factors in determining the new capital thresholds, including prevailing macroeconomic conditions, stress test results and the need for stronger risk buffers. He reassured on the regulator’s commitment to strict oversight as the consolidation progresses. “We will rigorously enforce our ‘fit and proper’ criteria for prospective new shareholders, senior management, and board members of banks, and proactively monitor the integrity of financial statements, adequacy of financial resources, and fair valuation of banks’ post-merger balance sheets,” Cardoso said. He said the CBN remained confident that the banking system would emerge stronger at the conclusion of the recapitalization exercise, with institutions better prepared to support Nigeria’s economic transformation Banks have up till March 31, 2026 to beef up their minimum capital base to the new standard set by the apex bank. Under the new minimum capital base, CBN uses a distinctive definition of the new minimum capital base for each category of banks as the addition of share capital and share premium, as against the previous use of shareholders’ funds.
While most banks have shareholders’ funds in excess of the new minimum capital base, their share premium and share capital significantly fall short of the new minimum definition. The CBN had in March 2024 released its circular on review of minimum capital requirement for commercial, merchant and non-interest banks. The apex bank increased the new minimum capital for commercial banks with international affiliations, otherwise known as mega banks, to N500 billion; commercial banks with national authorisation, N200 billion and commercial banks with regional license, N50 billion. Others included merchant banks, N50 billion; non-interest banks with national license, N20 billion and non-interest banks with regional license will now have N10 billion minimum capital. The 24-month timeline for compliance ends on March 31, 2026. Under the guidelines for the recapitalisation exercise, banks are expected to subject their new equity funds to capital verification before the clearance of the allotment proposal and release of the funds to the bank for onwards completion of the offer process and addition of the new capital to its capital base. The CBN is the final signatory in a tripartite capital verification committee that included the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC). The committee is saddled with scrutinising new funds being raised by banks under the ongoing banking sector recapitalisation exercise.

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