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Analysis

Unemployment a ticking time bomb,

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By Omoh Gabriel
The occupy Nigeria as the Lagos arm of the protest against fuel price increase was tagged as come and gone. The memories of the mammoth crowed that gathered at the Gani Fawehimi Park in Ojota lingers. The sheer number of people who were there was frightening. Assuming such a crowed took to the street of any of Nigeria major city, it would have been chaotic. But Nigeria stands the risk of several millions matching out one of these days saying they need jobs to keep body and soul together. Nigeria’s unemployment figure is alarming and growing by the day. It is very easy to conceal this fact in ratio by saying that unemployment is 23.9 per cent. The question to ask the authorities is 23.9 per cent of what, of the total population or of the work force? Either way the figures are alarming and need urgent action on the part of the government. In 2011 Nigeria population stood at 164.38 million. Out of this the labour force stood at 67.256 million out of which 51.181 million are said to be employed and 16.074 million are unemployed. Going by official data the unemployment figure which stood at 12.44 million in 2009 rose to 13.9 in 2010 and further to 16.74 million in 2011.
But this particular government seems not in any position to quickly resolve the unemployment situation in the country. Every quarter, government reel out figures of the growth in the economy. Economic growth presupposes economic expansion of production that requires additional hands. This is not the case. It is a known fact that unemployment has become a major problem for most countries across the world. In the USA for instance unemployment has increased from 5 per cent in 2007 to 9 per cent in 2011 which gives the Obama administration sleepless nights. That of Spain has risen from 8.6 per cent to 21.52 per cent as a result of the debt crisis in Europe; UK, from 5.3 to 8.1 per cent. Unemployment in Ireland currently stands at 14.3 per cent from 4.8 per cent, Latvia from 5.4 per cent to 16.5 per cent, Greece with all its debt trouble from 8.07 per cent to 18.4 per cent and Italy from 6.7 per cent to 8.3 per cent.
The average unemployment for the Euro area is 10.7 per cent. Within the African continent, unemployment has risen with South Africa, Africa’s largest economy having a higher rate than Nigeria at 25 per cent, Angola at 25 per cent, Botswana at 17.5 per cent, Egypt at 11.8 per cent, and Kenya at 11.7 per cent. The population of these other countries is far lower than Nigeria’s. The Nigeria situation is peculiar in that if the available resources are better managed and utilized, the country will not face the level of youth unemployment. An unemployment ration of 23.9 per cent of total population will mean that over 38 million Nigerians are unemployed. Of the work force means that 16 million are unemployed.
These figures are more than the number of persons living in Lagos, Kano and about the population of Ghana (24,223,431); Benin Republic (9,325,032) and some other Africa countries. According to the National Bureau of Statistics available data did not capture the number of Nigerians of working age that dropped out at secondary school level for various reasons and entered the job market in the rural and urban areas.
National Bureau of Statistics recent survey reveals that women are getting married later than they used to in the past resulting in a sizeable number of these Women that would have gotten marriage and stayed out of the labor Market by being housewives entering the labor market pending when they get married. This implies that Housewives are not included in the official figure of unemployment in the country.
Women globally have become very active in the labour market globally. So in Nigeria any woman who is lucky to hook a man drops out of the labour market. But the truth is that almost every married woman that I know is looking for one job or the other. Many Nigerians who are lucky to keep their jobs in management positions are confronted daily with CVs of applicant most of them women. Due to improvement in female education, women are not only getting married later but also, are increasingly becoming more insistent on financial independence and consequently entering the labor market and demanding more jobs than previously. Besides, families with previously just one working member are being forced to send other members of the family previously housewives into the labor market to look for work to supplement household income.
The banking sub-sector, due to the on going reforms and consolidation has sent several workers into the labour market. The sector instead of generating employment is shrinking
The manufacturing sector is worse off. The number of persons in paid employment at the end of 2010 in the cement manufacturing sub-sector stood at 3,318, compared to 4,142 in 2009, a decline of 19.9%. At the end of 2009, the number of workers engaged in the cement industry stood at 4,289 but this dropped to 3,658 by the end of 2010, meaning 631 persons either lost their jobs or switched jobs away from the cement manufacturing industry.
The number of persons in paid employment in the Hotels and Restaurants sector increased to 71,726 in 2010 from 68,696 in 2009. This represents an increase of 4.4 per cent. Between the end of 2009 and 2010, the number of persons engaged in mining and quarrying sector increased by 2,336 persons to 73,026 persons. The number of persons in paid employment rose during the period from 4,858 in 2009 to 5,792 in 2010, an increase of 19.2%. A total of 5,147 persons were engaged in the sector in 2009. This rose to 6,221 in 2010, meaning 1074 jobs were added in the Sector during the period under review.
Among the sectors surveyed, Banking and professional services sector has the highest number of paid employees, with 327,777 persons in 2010, a decline of 2.5 per cent from 336,309 a year earlier. Between 2009 and 2010, the number of persons engaged in private professional services increased from 341,247 to 345,568, implying addition of over 4,321 jobs during the period.
The survey of wholesale and retail trade in bulk and retail trade activities such as stores and supermarkets showed that there were in 2010 92,287 workers in paid employment in the sector, against the 2009 total of 78,049 workers in paid employment. In addition, 76,473 workers were in Paid employment in the sector in 2010 compared to 66,814 in 2009. In 2010, 76,611 persons were engaged in the sector compared to 67,305 persons engaged in 2009. The over all implication of this is that the economy is not growing fast enough to absorbed existing job seekers not to talk of the several millions that join the labour market annually. If this government is serious with its transformation agenda, it must target and implement job creating projects instead of engaging in ostentatious living or consumption.

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Analysis

As EU plans Russian Gas exit, Ministers to convene in Paris to chart Africa’s export potential

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In the wake of seismic shifts in the European energy landscape, the Invest in African Energy (IAE) 2026 Forum in Paris will host a Ministerial Dialogue on “Unlocking Africa’s Gas Supply for Global Energy Security.” This strategic session will examine how Africa can turn its untapped gas reserves into a reliable and sustainable source of supply. With Europe seeking to diversify away from Russian gas, the dialogue highlights both the continent’s growing role in global energy markets and the opportunity for African producers to attract long-term investment. Recent developments underscore the urgency of Africa’s role in global energy security. Last month, EU countries agreed to phase out their remaining Russian gas imports, with existing contracts benefiting from a transition period: short-term contracts can continue until June 2026, while long-term contracts will run until January 2028. In parallel, the European Commission is pushing to end Russian LNG imports by January 2027 under a broader sanctions package aimed at limiting Moscow’s energy revenues.

Africa’s role in this rebalancing is already gaining momentum. Algeria recently renewed its gas supply agreement with ČEZ Group, ensuring continued deliveries to the Czech Republic. In Libya, the National Oil Corporation (NOC) has approved new compressors at the Bahr Essalam field to boost output and reinforce flows via the Greenstream pipeline to Italy. These developments complement the Structures A&E offshore project – led by Eni and the NOC – which is expected to bring two platforms online by 2026 and produce up to 750 million cubic feet per day, supporting both domestic and European demand. West Africa is pursuing ambitious export routes as well.

Nigeria, Algeria and Niger have revived the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline (TSGP), with engineering firm Penspen commissioned earlier this year to revalidate its feasibility. The proposed $25 billion Nigeria–Morocco pipeline is also advancing as a long-term corridor linking West African gas to European markets. Meanwhile, the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim (GTA) project off Mauritania and Senegal came online earlier this year, with its first phase targeting 2.3 million tons of LNG annually. In June, the project delivered its third cargo to Belgium’s Zeebrugge terminal, marking the first African LNG shipment from GTA to Europe. Together, these milestones underscore a strategic convergence: African producers are accelerating efforts to scale up exports just as Europe intensifies its search for reliable alternatives to Russian gas.

Yet, as the ministerial session will explore, unlocking Africa’s gas supply demands sustained investment, regulatory alignment, environmental management and community engagement. For Europe, diversification of supply is a strategic necessity; for African producers, it is an opportunity to accelerate development, build infrastructure and secure long-term capital. At IAE 2026, these shifts will be examined by the officials and stakeholders driving them. The Ministerial Dialogue brings African energy leaders together with European policymakers, industry players and investors in a setting that supports practical, solution-focused discussion on supply, export strategies and future cooperation. As Europe adapts its gas strategy and African producers progress major projects, the Forum provides a direct platform for ministers to outline priorities and for investors to engage with key decision-makers.

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Analysis

Authorities must respond as digital tools used by organized criminals accelerate financial crime—IMF

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International Monetary Fund IMF, has said that criminals are outpacing enforcement by adapting ever faster ways to carry out digital fraud. The INF in a Blog post said the Department of Justice in June announced the largest-ever US crypto seizure: $225 million from crypto scams known as pig butchering, in which organized criminals, often across borders, use advanced technology and social engineering such as romance or investment schemes to manipulate victims. This typically involves using AI-generated profiles, encrypted messaging, and obscured blockchain transactions to hide and move stolen funds. It was a big win. Federal agents collaborated across jurisdictions and used blockchain analysis and machine learning to track thousands of wallets used to scam more than 400 victims. Yet it was also a rare victory that underscored how authorities often must play catch-up in a fast-changing digital world. And the scammers are still out there. They pick the best tools for their schemes, from laundering money through crypto and AI-enabled impersonation to producing deepfake content, encrypted apps, and decentralized exchanges. Authorities confronting anonymous, borderless threats are held back by jurisdiction, process, and legacy systems.
Annual illicit crypto activity growth has averaged about 25 percent in recent years and may have surpassed $51 billion last year, according to Chainalysis, a New York–based blockchain analysis firm specializing in helping criminal investigators trace transactions. Bad actors still depend on cash and traditional finance, and money laundering specifically relies on banks, informal money changers, and cash couriers. But the old ways are being reinforced or supercharged by technologies to thwart detection and disruption.
Encrypted messaging apps help cartels coordinate cross-border transactions. Stablecoins and lightly regulated virtual asset platforms can hide bribes and embezzled funds. Cybercriminals use AI-generated identities and bots to deceive banks and evade outdated controls. Tracking proceeds generated by organized crime is nearly impossible for underresourced agencies. AI lowers barriers to entry. Fraudsters with voice-cloning and fake-document generators bypass the verification protocols many banks and regulators still use. Their innovation is growing as compliance systems lag. Governments recognize the threats, but responses are fragmented and uneven—including in regulation of crypto exchanges. And there are delays implementing the Financial Action Task Force’s (FATF’s) “travel rule” to better identify those sending and receiving money across borders, which most digital proceeds cross.
Meanwhile, international financial flows are increasingly complicated by instant transfers on decentralized platforms and anonymity-enhancing tools. Most payments still go through multiple intermediaries, often layering cross-border transactions through antiquated correspondent banks that obscure and delay transactions while raising costs. This helps criminals exploit oversight gaps, jurisdictional coordination, and technological capacity to operate across borders, often undetected.
Regulators and fintechs should be partners, and sustained multilateral engagement should foster fast, cheap, transparent, and traceable cross-border payments. There’s a parallel narrative. Criminals exploit innovation for secrecy and speed while companies and governments test coordination to reduce vulnerabilities and modernize cross-border infrastructure. At the same time, technological implications remain underexplored with respect to anti–money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism, or AML/CFT. Singapore’s and Thailand’s linked fast payment systems, for example, enable real-time retail transfers using mobile numbers; Indonesia and Malaysia have connected QR codes for cross-border payments. Such innovations offer efficiency and inclusion yet raise new issues regarding identity verification, transaction monitoring, and regulatory coordination.
In India, the Unified payments interface enables seamless transfers across apps and platforms, highlighting the power of interoperable design. More than 18 billion monthly transactions, many across competing platforms, show how openness and standardization drive scale and inclusion. Digital payments in India grew faster when interoperability improved, especially in fragmented markets where switching was costly, IMF research shows These regional innovations and global initiatives reflect a growing understanding that fighting crime and fostering inclusion are interlinked priorities—especially as criminals speed ahead. The FATF echoed this concern, urging countries to design AML/CFT controls that support inclusion and innovation. Moreover, an FATF June recommendation marks a major advance: Requiring originator and beneficiary information for cross-border wire transfers—including those involving virtual assets—will enhance traceability across the fast-evolving digital financial ecosystem.
Efforts like these are important examples of how technology enables criminal advantage, but technology must also be part of the regulatory response.
Modernizing cross-border payment systems and reducing unintended AML/CFT barriers increasingly means focusing on transparency, interoperability, and risk-based regulation. The IMF’s work on “safe payment corridors” supports this by helping countries build trusted, secure channels for legitimate financial flows without undermining new technology. A pilot with Samoa —where de-risking has disrupted remittances—showed how targeted safeguards and collaboration with regulated providers can preserve access while maintaining financial integrity without disrupting the use of new payment platforms.
Several countries, with IMF guidance, are investing in machine learning to detect anomalies in cross-border financial flows, and others are tightening regulation of virtual asset service providers. Governments are investing in their own capacity to trace crypto transfers, and blockchain analytics firms are often employed to do that. IMF analysis of cross-border flows and the updated FATF rules are mutually reinforcing. If implemented cohesively, they can help digital efficiency coexist with financial integrity. For that to happen, legal frameworks must adapt to enable timely access to digital evidence while preserving due process. Supervisory models need to evolve to oversee both banks and nonbank financial institutions offering cross-border services. Regulators and fintechs should be partners, and sustained multilateral engagement should foster fast, cheap, transparent, and traceable cross-border payments—anchored interoperable standards that also respect privacy.
Governments must keep up. That means investing in regulatory technology, such as AI-powered transaction monitoring and blockchain analysis, and giving agencies tools and expertise to detect complex crypto schemes and synthetic identity fraud. Institutions must keep pace with criminals by hiring and retaining expert data scientists and financial crime specialists. Virtual assets must be brought under AML/CFT regulation, public-private partnerships should codevelop tools to spot emerging risks, and global standards from the FATF and the Financial Stability Board must be backed by national investments in effective AML/CFT frameworks.
Consistent and coordinated implementation is important. Fragmented efforts leave openings for criminals. Their growing technological advantage over governments threatens to undermine financial integrity, destabilize economies, weaken already fragile institutions, and erode public trust in systems meant to ensure safety and fairness. As crime rings adopt and adapt emerging technologies to outpace enforcement, the cost is not only fiscal—it is structural and systemic. Governments can’t wait. The criminals won’t.

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Analysis

Multilateral development banks reaffirm commitment to climate finance, pledge innovative funding for adaptation

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Multilateral development banks have reaffirmed their commitment to climate finance, pledging to scale up innovative funding to boost climate adaptation and resilience. “Financing climate resilience is not a cost, but an investment.” This was the key message from senior MDB officials at the end of a side event organised by the Climate Investment Funds (CIF) on the opening day of the 30th United Nations Climate Conference (COP30) in Belém, Brazil.

The conference runs from 10 to 21 November. During a panel discussion titled “Accelerating large-scale climate change adaptation,” MDB representatives, including the African Development Bank Group, outlined how their institutions are fulfilling Paris Agreement commitments by mobilising substantial and innovative resources for climate adaptation and mitigation. Ilan Goldfajn, President of the Inter-American Development Bank Group, emphasised that “resilience is more than a concern for the future: it is also essential for development today.” He announced that MDBs are tripling their financing for resilience over the next decade, targeting $42 billion by 2030.

“At the Inter-American Development Bank, we are turning preparedness into protection and resilience into opportunity,” Goldfajn added. Tanja Faller, Director of Technical Evaluation and Monitoring at the Council of Europe Development Bank, stressed that climate change “not only creates new threats, but also amplifies existing inequalities. The most socially vulnerable people are the hardest hit and the last to recover. This is how a climate crisis also becomes a social crisis.” Representatives from the Islamic Development Bank, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, the Asian Development Bank, the World Bank Group, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development,  the European Investment Bank, the New Development Bank and IDB Invest (the private sector arm of the Inter-American Development Bank Group) also shared concrete examples of successful adaptation investments and strategies for mobilising new resources.

Kevin Kariuki, Vice President of the African Development Bank Group in charge of Power, Energy, Climate and Green Growth, presented the Bank’s leadership in advancing climate adaptation and mitigation. “At the African Development Bank, we understand the priorities of our countries: adaptation and mitigation are at the heart of our climate interventions.” He highlighted the creation of the Climate Action Window, a new financing mechanism under the African Development Fund, the Bank Group’s concessional window for low-income countries.

“The African Development Bank is the only multilateral development bank with a portfolio of adaptation projects ready for investment through the Climate Action Window,” Kariuki noted, adding that Germany, the United Kingdom and Switzerland are among key co-financing partners. Kariuki also showcased the Bank’s YouthADAPT programme, which has invested $5.4 million in 41 youth-led enterprises across 20 African countries, generating more than 10,000 jobs — 61 percent of which are led by women, and mobilising an additional $7 million in private and donor funding.

Representatives from Zambia, Mozambique and Jamaica also shared local perspectives on the financing needs of communities most exposed to climate risk. The panel followed the official opening of COP30, marked by a passionate appeal from Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for greater climate investment to prevent a “tragedy for humanity.”

“Without the Paris Agreement, we would see a 4–5°C increase in global temperatures,” Lula warned. “Our call to action is based on three pillars: honouring commitments; accelerating public action with a roadmap enabling humanity to move away from fossil fuels and deforestation; and placing humanity at the heart of the climate action programme: thousands of people are living in poverty and deprivation as a result of climate change. The climate emergency is a crisis of inequality,” he continued.

“We must build a future that is not doomed to tragedy. We must ensure that we live in a world where we can still dream.” Outgoing COP President Mukhtar Babayevn, Azerbaijan’s Minister of Ecology, urged developed nations to fulfil their promises made at the Baku Conference, including commitments to mobilise $300 billion in climate finance. He called for stronger political will and multilateral cooperation, before handing over the COP presidency to Brazilian diplomat André Corrêa do Lago, who now leads the negotiations.

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