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Taking a turn for the worse, global economy is being hit from different fronts—Moody

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Moody Rating Agency has said that the global economy is being hit from different fronts. First, higher inflation is eating into everyone’s pockets and denting disposable income, and we expect this to weigh on consumption going forward. Second, supply-chain disruptions, combined with higher energy and input prices, are making life hard for manufacturers as they struggle to source components and to absorb the rise in overall costs. Third, aggressive tightening by central banks will only make the situation worse as it will result in tightening of financial conditions for both businesses and households. Fourth, the military conflict, combined with higher inflation, has resulted in a sharp decline in confidence across the board, further putting the brakes on activity. All things considered, the only solace should come from a post-COVID-19 revival in consumer services activities, though this assumes a continued improvement on the pandemic front.

It said that higher inflation, more acute supply shortages, lower sentiment, and higher rates are here to stay. GDP growth for 2022 has been revised down to 3% from 3.2%. Recession risks have increased sharply and revolve around 30%. The invasion of Ukraine is the main culprit, as it has exacerbated global inflationary pressures. Inflation will stay high throughout 2022 owing mainly to higher energy and tradable goods prices, but underlying inflation pressures will also increase. Central banks are on a rapid tightening path. The global economic outlook has darkened significantly since the start of the military conflict in Ukraine, pushing us to lower our GDP forecasts for 2022. We now expect global GDP to rise by 3% this year, down from 3.2% in our March baseline, while growth in 2023 should come in at 3.4%. We downgraded our forecasts for almost all world economies, reflecting a broad-based increase in inflation pressures, significantly tighter monetary policy, and a decline in overall business and consumer sentiment.

It further said that to put this into context, only a few months ago we were more optimistic. We anticipated growth would gain momentum in the second quarter following the Omicron-related hit around the turn of the year, and in line with the expected fading of both global supply-chain bottlenecks and energy price pressures. Granted, global activity was expected to slow this year compared to peak growth of 5.7% in 2021, but this would have been merely a post-rebound normalisation towards more long-term growth rates. Unfortunately, this is nothing but old news as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine turned things upside down. It brought higher global oil, natural gas, agricultural and metal prices, as well as additional supply-chain disruptions. Our forecasts for a fading in cost-push inflation pressures that would support growth thus became null and void, despite the fading of COVID-19-related disruptions and risks. In fact, we are now seeing price pressures strengthen across the globe, and we are expecting they will remain elevated throughout the rest of the year. Russia is one of the world’s major producers of oil and natural gas, while both Russia and Ukraine are major exporters of agricultural and metal commodities. Sanctions resulted in a sharp decline in trade with Russia, while Ukraine’s exports have essentially halted. Market prices for goods—including energy, wheat, sunflower oil, palladium and nickel—have soared, with risk premiums going through the roof given the increased fear of supply shortages.

According to Moody, these price shocks came with incredibly bad timing. Global inflation expectations were on the high side of what is comfortable before the Russian invasion owing to COVID-19 disruptions to supply-chain and labour markets. Indeed, the OECD announced on Tuesday that inflation across its member countries already reached 7.7% y/y in February, its highest in 30 years. Note that these figures cover only the initial days of the military conflict in Ukraine, which means that they don’t yet capture most of the post-invasion jump in prices. All major countries are feeling the pain. In the U.S., inflation has surged to much as 7.9% y/y in February, while in the euro zone it reached 7.5% in March, the highest reading on record. Worryingly enough, inflation surged to as much as 9.8% y/y in Spain and 11.6% in the Netherlands, while the situation is even worse in Eastern European countries such as Poland and the Czech Republic. Inflation in the U.K. was a bit lower at 6.2% y/y in February, but this still represents a 30-year high and, in any case, the CPI headline is forecast to jump above 8% in March or April. Latin America is also battling with surging prices, with inflation nearing double digits in almost all countries in the region. Brazil steals the spotlight, with inflation there north of 10% y/y. Adding to the woes, Asian countries haven’t been spared. For example, inflation is high and rising in India, New Zealand, Thailand, Singapore and South Korea. Even Japan posted modest but positive top-line inflation in February, driven by high energy prices.

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15% petrol import tax requires strategic roll out – LCCI

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Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) has stressed the need for a measured and strategic rollout of the 15 per cent petroleum import tax to ensure sustainable economic impact. The Director-General, LCCI, Dr Chinyere Almona, gave the advice in a statement on Monday in Lagos. Almona noted the recent decision by the Federal Government to impose a 15 per cent import tax on petrol and diesel, a move aimed at curbing import dependence and promoting local refining capacity.

She said while the policy direction aligned with the nation’s long-term objective of achieving energy self-sufficiency and naira strengthening, a strategic rollout was imperative. Almona said that Nigeria was already experiencing cost-of-living pressures, supply-chain, and inflation challenges and that the business community would be sensitive to further cost shocks. “The chamber recognises that discouraging fuel importation is a necessary step towards achieving domestic energy security, stimulating investment in local refineries, and deepening the downstream petroleum value chain.

“However, LCCI expresses concern about the current adequacy of local refining capacity to meet national demand. A premature restriction on imports, without sufficient domestic production, could lead to supply shortages, higher pump prices, and inflationary pressures across critical sectors,” she said. Almona called on the Federal Government to prioritise the full operationalisation and optimisation of local refineries, both public and private, including modular refineries and the recently revitalised major refining facilities. She said that a comprehensive framework for crude oil supply to these refineries in Naira rather than foreign exchange would significantly enhance cost efficiency, stabilise production, and strengthen the local value chain.

She said the chamber’s interest lied in a diversified downstream sector where multiple refineries, modular plants, and logistics firms thrive. She urged government to resolve outstanding labour union issues and create an enabling environment that fostered industrial harmony and private sector confidence.

According to her, ensuring clarity, consistency, and transparency in the implementation of the new tax regime will be crucial in preventing market distortions and sustaining investor trust. “While the reform is justified from an industrial policy standpoint, its success depends on practical implementation, robust safeguards, and parallel reforms to alleviate cost burdens on businesses and consumers. With local capacity not yet established, this tax will increase the cost of fuels as long as imports continue. Government needs to address the inhibiting factors against local production and refining before imposing this levy to discourage imports and support local production,” she said.

Almona recommended that the implementation of the tax policy be postponed. She advised that during the transition period government demonstrate its commitment through action by empowering local refiners through an efficient crude-for-Naira supply chain that ensured sufficient crude. “With this, refiners can boost their refining capacity with a stable supply of crude and adequately meet domestic demand at competitive rates. At this point, the imposition of an import tax will directly discourage importation and boost demand for the locally refined products,” she said.

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Update: Sanwo-Olu, others harp on stronger private sector role to drive AfCFTA success

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Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu of Lagos State has urged the private sector to take a stronger, more coordinated role in driving the successful implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

Sanwo-Olu, who made the call at the NEPAD Business Group Nigeria High-Level Business Forum, held on Thursday in Lagos, said that the agreement holds the key to transforming Africa into a globally competitive economic powerhouse. The theme of the forum is “Mobilising Africa’s Private Sector for AfCFTA Towards Africa’s Economic Development Amid Global Uncertainty”.

It brought together policymakers, business leaders, and development experts from across the continent. Sanwo-Olu was represented by the Lagos State Commissioner for Commerce, Cooperatives, Trade and Investment, Mrs Folashade Ambrose-Medebem. The governor said AfCFTA had the potential to lift millions of Africans out of poverty, but only if the continent’s business community seized the opportunity to scale production and integrate value chains across borders. “Governments can negotiate tariffs and treaties, but businesses must produce, export, invest, and believe in cross-border possibilities.

The private sector is the true engine of trade and industrialisation; without it, AfCFTA will remain a document and not a driver of development,” Sanwo-Olu said. He said that Lagos State had continued to create an enabling business environment through deliberate investments in infrastructure, logistics and technology, all designed to enhance productivity and trade efficiency. “From our vibrant tech ecosystem in Yaba to the Lekki Deep Sea Port and the expanding industrial corridors of the state, we are building a Lagos that supports trade, innovation, and investment,” he added. The governor stressed the need to empower Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs), which he described as “the lifeblood of Africa’s economy”.

He said access to finance, mentorship, and digital tools remained essential for their growth. “Through the Lagos State Employment Trust Fund (LSETF), we have supported thousands of entrepreneurs with training and access to funding. When SMEs thrive, our communities grow, jobs are created, and the promise of AfCFTA becomes real,” Sanwo-Olu noted. In his goodwill message, Dr Abdulrashid Yerima, President of the Nigerian Association of Small and Medium Enterprises (NASME), called on African governments to align policy frameworks with the realities of the private sector to ensure the success of AfCFTA.

Yerima said Africa’s shared prosperity depended on how effectively the continent could mobilise its entrepreneurs and innovators to take advantage of the 1.4 billion-strong continental market. “As private sector leaders, the employers of labour and creators of opportunity, we must move from aspiration to achievement, from potential to performance. AfCFTA is not just an agreement; it is Africa’s blueprint for collective economic independence,” he said. He emphasised the importance of strengthening cooperation among business coalitions, cooperatives, and industrial clusters to ensure that micro and small enterprises benefit from cross-border trade opportunities. “No SME can scale alone in a continental market.

We must build strong business networks that allow small enterprises to grow into regional champions,” he stressed. Yerima further encouraged African nations to adopt global best practices and digital frameworks, such as the OECD Digital for SMEs (D4SME) initiative, to improve access to knowledge, technology, and markets. Also speaking at the event, Mr Samuel Dossou-Aworet, President of the African Business Roundtable (ABR), urged African leaders to fully harness AfCFTA’s opportunities to build inclusive and sustainable economies. Dossou-Aworet noted that while Africa was currently the world’s second-fastest-growing region after Asia, sustained growth would require greater industrialisation and investment in human capital.

“The entry into force of the AfCFTA has expanded Africa’s investment frontiers. Where once our markets were fragmented, we now have a unified platform for trade and production. But growth must be inclusive, not just in numbers, but in impact on people’s lives,” he noted. Citing data from the African Development Bank (AfDB), Dossou-Aworet observed that 12 of the world’s 20 fastest-growing economies in 2025 are African, including Rwanda, Côte d’Ivoire, and Senegal. However, he cautioned that Africa’s GDP growth of around four per cent remained below the seven per cent threshold needed to significantly reduce poverty. “We must ensure that growth translates into better jobs, infrastructure, and access to opportunities for women and youth,” he stressed. He also called for innovative financing models to bridge Africa’s infrastructure gap and improve competitiveness in the global market.

“Africa needs market access and trade facilitation mechanisms to enable its products to reach global markets. Access to affordable capital is key, and our financial systems must evolve to support trade,” he added. Dossou-Aworet reaffirmed the African Business Roundtable’s commitment to supporting enterprise development and promoting Africa as a prime destination for investment. “This is Africa’s moment. If we work together, government, business, and citizens, we will build an Africa that competes confidently in the global economy and delivers prosperity for its people.”

The forum, convened by the NEPAD Business Group Nigeria, brought together regional and international partners to strengthen collaboration between public and private sectors in advancing AfCFTA’s goals. Chairman of the group, Chief J.K. Randle, commended the participation of leading business executives and policymakers, saying it reflected Africa’s readiness to take ownership of its economic destiny. Randle said, “We can no longer rely on external forces to drive our growth. The private sector must rise as the torchbearer of Africa’s transformation under AfCFTA.” He added that the forum would continue to serve as a platform for dialogue, knowledge exchange, and action planning to position African enterprises at the centre of global trade.

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First ever China–Europe Cargo transit completed via the Arctic route

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The first-ever container transit from China to Europe via the Northern Sea Route (NSR) arrived at the British port of Felixstowe on October 13, 2025. The voyage marked a breakthrough in developing the NSR as a sustainable and high-tech transport corridor connecting Asia and Europe. The development of this Arctic route reflects the steady expansion of global trade flows — an evolution that reaches every continent, including Africa, where maritime industries and energy corridors continue to expand.
The ship carrying nearly 25,000 tonnes of cargo departed from Ningbo on September 23 and entered the NSR on October 1. Navigation and information support was provided by Glavsevmorput, a subsidiary of Rosatom State Atomic Energy Corporation. The Arctic leg of the voyage took 20 days, cutting transit time almost by half compared with traditional southern routes. This new pathway complements existing ones, creating broader opportunities for efficient and sustainable logistics worldwide.
The Northern Sea Route is developing rapidly, becoming a viable and efficient global logistics route. This is facilitated by various factors, including the development of advanced technologies, the construction of new-generation nuclear icebreakers, and growing interest from international shippers. Working in the Arctic is challenging but we are transforming these challenges into results. Along with the main priority of ensuring the safety of navigation on the Northern Sea Route, managing the speed and time of passage along the route is becoming an important task for us today,” noted Rosatom State Corporation Special Representative for Arctic Development Vladimir Panov.
The Northern Sea Route, spanning about 5,600 km, links the western part of Eurasia with the Asia-Pacific region. In 2024, cargo turnover reached 37.9 million tonnes, surpassing the previous year’s record by more than 1.6 million. Container traffic between Russia and China doubled compared to 2023, and by mid-2025, 17 container voyages had already been completed, moving 280,000 tonnes — a 59% increase year-on-year.
The expansion of this Arctic transport route is becoming part of a broader global effort to strengthen connectivity and diversify supply chains. For Africa and the wider Global South these developments demonstrate how innovation in logistics can stimulate new opportunities for trade, technology exchange, and sustainable growth. As new corridors emerge, the world’s regions are becoming more closely linked — not in competition, but in collaboration — shaping a more resilient and interconnected global economy.

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