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Nigeria, other Sub Sahara Africa,  Middle East, North Africa, South Asia facing worst food insecurity in recent history—WEF

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4 years ago

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The World Economic Forum’s Community of Chief Economists expects lower economic activity, higher inflation, lower real wages and greater food insecurity globally in 2022, pointing to the devastating human consequences of the fragmentation of the global economy. According to the survey report “reversing previous expectations for recovery, the majority of respondents to the latest survey expect only a moderate economic outlook in the United States, China, Latin America, South Asia and Pacific, East Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East and North Africa in 2022. In Europe, the majority expect the economic outlook to be weak. The choices of both business and government are expected to lead to greater fragmentation in the global economy and unprecedented shifts in supply chains, creating a perfect storm of volatility and uncertainty. These patterns are expected to create further difficult trade-offs and choices for policy-makers, and – without greater coordination – shocking human costs. These are the key findings of the World Economic Forum’s quarterly Chief Economists Outlook, published today. 

“We are at the cusp of a vicious cycle that could impact societies for years. The pandemic and war in Ukraine have fragmented the global economy and created far-reaching consequences that risk wiping out the gains of the last 30 years. Leaders face difficult choices and trade-offs domestically when it comes to debt, inflation and investment. Yet business and government leaders must also recognise the absolute necessity of global cooperation to prevent economic misery and hunger for millions around the world. The World Economic Forum’s Annual Meeting this week will provide a starting point for such collaboration”, says Saadia Zahidi, Managing Director at the World Economic Forum. The war in Ukraine, continued surges of COVID-19 variants and associated supply shocks are impacting expectations on inflation. The majority of chief economists surveyed by the Forum expect high or very high inflation in 2022 in all markets except China and East Asia – with 96% expecting high or very high inflation in the US, 92% for Europe and 86% for Latin America. In parallel, two-thirds of chief economists expect that average real wages will decline in the near term in advanced economies, while one-third are uncertain. Ninety percent of those surveyed expect average real wages to fall across low-income economies.

It further said “With wheat prices expected to increase by over 40% this year and prices for vegetable oils, cereals and meat at all-time highs, the war in Ukraine is exacerbating global hunger and a cost-of-living crisis. Over the next three years, chief economists expect food insecurity to be most severe in sub-Saharan Africa and in the Middle East and North Africa. At the current trajectory, the world is on track for the worst food crisis in recent history, compounded by the additional pressure of high energy prices. These expert predictions are echoed in the experience of the general public. A recent 11 country survey, conducted by Ipsos with the World Economic Forum, reveals high levels of public economic pessimism in the face of a cost-of-living crisis. Twenty-five per cent of the public say they are finding it quite or very difficult to manage financially, ranging between two-thirds of Turkish citizens and 16% of those in the US and Germany. The largest group (34%) say they are “just about getting by”. Only 11% say they are living comfortably while three in ten (29%) feel they are doing alright. Expectations of price rises are also widespread across all 11 countries – almost four in five people expect the cost of their food shopping to increase, while three-quarters expect rises in utility bills such as gas and electricity. For most countries, a rise in food prices is the area households say would have the biggest impact on their quality of life – this is the case for the US, Canada, Italy, Japan, Australia, Poland and Turkey. In the remaining four countries (Britain, Italy, Germany and Spain) an increase in utility bills would have the biggest effect.

“Faced with the challenge of containing inflation without tipping economies into recession, chief economists are divided. While a majority (57%) agree that the risks associated with higher inflation in low-income economies outweigh those associated with short-term contraction due to monetary tightening, opinions of the effects in high-income countries are more divided. With fiscal spending set to increase in many countries to deal with current developments, balancing the risks of a cost-of-living crisis with higher debt is a key challenge for policy-makers. In advanced economies, 54% of chief economists expect energy price subsidies while 41% expect food price subsidies. In low-income economies the vast majority feel that food price subsidies will be necessary (86%), while 60% expect energy price subsidies. However, this necessity will need to be squared against a higher risk of debt default (81% see an increased risk of this for developing economies).  With the World Bank expecting energy prices to rise by more than 50% in 2022, before easing in 2023-24, policy-makers are faced with balancing the risks of energy insecurity against the transition to greener energy. 

“Most chief economists surveyed expect policy-makers to try and tackle both challenges simultaneously. However, a clear majority of respondents expect a prioritisation of energy security based on carbon-intensive sources rather than greener sources across all regions except Europe and China. As supply chains enter their third year of disruption, governments and business are rethinking their approach to exposure, self-sufficiency and security across their supply chains. Chief economists consider it likely or highly likely that multinational companies will both localise and diversify their supply chains in the next three years, realigning them along geopolitical fault lines. The November 2021 edition of the Chief Economists Outlook identified “deglobalization” as an emerging trend driven by the impact of the pandemic. The war in Ukraine and its geopolitical and economic fallout is accelerating these trends, with declining physical integration and increasing friction in the virtual space. A majority of the chief economists polled for May’s Outlook expect higher fragmentation in the markets for goods, technology and labour in the next three years, while most expect services to remain stable or be more globalised”.

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Economy

Nigeria champions African-Arab trade to boost agribusiness, industrial growth

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2 days ago

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December 5, 2025

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The Arab Africa Trade Bridges (AATB) Program and the Federal Republic of Nigeria formalized a partnership with the signing of the AATB Membership Agreement, officially welcoming Nigeria as the Program’s newest member country. The signing ceremony took place in Abuja on the sidelines of the 5th AATB Board of Governors Meeting, hosted by the Federal Government of Nigeria.

The Membership Agreement was signed by Eng. Adeeb Y. Al Aama, the CEO of the International Islamic Trade Finance Corporation (ITFC) and AATB Program Secretary General, and H.E. Mr. Wale Edun, Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Federal Republic of Nigeria. The Agreement will provide a strategic and operational framework to support Nigeria’s efforts in trade competitiveness, promote export diversification, strengthen priority value chains, and advance capacity-building efforts in line with national development priorities. Areas of collaboration will include trade promotion, agribusiness modernization, SME development, businessmen missions, trade facilitation, logistics efficiency, and digital trade readiness.

The Honourable Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr. Wale Edun, called for deeper trade collaboration between African and Arab nations, stressing the importance of value-added Agribusiness and industrial partnerships for regional growth. Speaking in Abuja at the Agribusiness Matchmaking Forum ahead of the AATB Board of Governors Meeting, the Minister said the shifting global economy makes it essential for African and Arab nations to rely more on regional cooperation, investment and shared markets.

He highlighted projections showing Arab-Africa trade could grow by more than US$37 billion in the next three years and urged partners to prioritize value addition rather than raw commodity exports. He noted that Nigeria’s growing industrial base and upcoming National Single Window reforms will support efficiency, investment and private-sector expansion.

“This is a moment to turn opportunity into action”, he said. “By working together, we can build stronger value chains, create jobs and support prosperity across our regions”, Edun emphasized. “As African and Arab nations embark on this journey of deeper trade collaboration, the potential for growth and development is vast. With a shared vision and commitment to value-added partnerships, we can unlock new opportunities, drive economic growth, and create a brighter future for our people.”

Speaking during the event, Eng. Adeeb Y. Al Aama, Chief Executive Officer of ITFC and Secretary General of the AATB Program, stated: “We are pleased to welcome Nigeria to be part of the AATB Program. Nigeria stands as one of Africa’s most dynamic and resilient economies in Africa, with a rapidly expanding private sector and strong potential across agribusiness, energy, manufacturing, and digital industries. Through this Membership Agreement, we look forward to collaborating closely with Nigerian institutions to strengthen value chains, expand regional market access, enhance trade finance and investment opportunities, and support the country’s development priorities.”

The signing of this Agreement underscores AATB’s continued engagement with African countries and its evolving portfolio of programs supporting trade and investment. In recent years, AATB has worked on initiatives across agribusiness, textiles, logistics, digital trade, export readiness under the AfCFTA framework, and other regional initiatives such as the Common African Agro-Parks (CAAPs) Programme.

With Nigeria’s accession, the AATB Program extends it’s presence in the region and adds a key partner working toward advancing trade-led development and fostering inclusive economic growth.

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Economy

FEC approves 2026–2028 MTEF, projects N34.33trn revenue 

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3 days ago

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December 4, 2025

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Federal Executive Council (FEC) has approved the 2026–2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF), a key fiscal document that outlines Nigeria’s revenue expectations, macroeconomic assumptions, and spending priorities for the next three years. The approval followed Wednesday’s FEC meeting presided over by President Bola Tinubu at the State House, Abuja. The Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Senator Atiku Bagudu made this known after the meeting.

The Minister said the Federal Government is projecting a total revenue inflow of N34.33 trillion in 2026, including N4.98 trillion expected from government-owned enterprises. Bagudu said that the projected revenue is N6.55 trillion lower than earlier estimates, adding that federal allocations are expected to drop by about N9.4 trillion, representing a 16% decline compared to the 2025 budget.

He said that statutory transfers are expected to amount to about N3 trillion within the same fiscal year. On macroeconomic assumptions, FEC adopted an oil production benchmark of 2.6 million barrels per day (mbpd) for 2026, although a more conservative 1.8 mbpd will be used for budgeting purposes. An oil price benchmark of $64 per barrel and an exchange rate of N1,512 per dollar were also approved.

Bagudu said the exchange rate assumption reflects projections tied to economic and political developments ahead of the 2027 general elections. He said the exchange rate assumption took into account the fiscal outlook ahead of the 2027 general elections.

The minister said that all the parameters were based on macroeconomic analysis by the Budget Office and other relevant agencies. Bagudu said FEC also reviewed comments from cabinet members before approving the Medium-Term Fiscal Expenditure Ceiling (MFTEC), which sets expenditure limits. Earlier, the Senate approved the external borrowing plan of $21.5 billion presented by President Tinubu for consideration The loans, according to the Senate, were part of the MTEF and Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP) for the 2025 budget.

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Economy

CBN hikes interest on treasury Bills above inflation rate

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3 days ago

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December 4, 2025

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The spot rate on Nigerian Treasury bills has been increased by 146 basis points by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) following tight subscription levels at the main auction on Wednesday. The spot rate on Treasury bills with one-year maturity has now surpassed Nigeria’s 16.05% inflation by 145 basis points following a recent decision to keep the policy rate at 27%. 

The Apex Bank came to the primary market with N700 billion Treasury bills offer size across standard tenors, including 91-day, 182-day and 364 day maturities. Details from the auction results showed that demand settled slightly above the total offers as investors began to seek higher returns on naira assets despite disinflation.

Total subscription came in at about N775 billion versus N700 billion offers floated at the main auction. The results showed rising appetite for duration as investors parked about 90% of their bids on Nigerian Treasury bills with 364 days maturity. The CBN opened N100 billion worth of 91 days bills for subscription, but the offer received underwhelming bids totalling N44.17 billion.

The CBN allotted N42.80 billion for the short-term instrument at the spot rate of 15.30%, the same as the previous auction. Total demand for 182 days Nigerian Treasury bills settled at N33.38 billion as against N150 billion that the authority pushed out for subscription. The CBN raised N30.36 billion from 182 days bills allotted to investors at the spot rate of 15.50%, the same as the previous auction.

Investors staked N697.29 billion on N450 billion in 364-day Treasury bills that was offered for subscription. The CBN raised N636.46 billion from the longest tenor at the spot rate of 17.50%, up from 16.04% at the previous auction.

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