Finance
U.S. bank profits to tumble on higher bad loan reserves
Second quarter profits at big U.S. banks are expected to fall sharply from a year earlier on increased loan loss reserves, as the pandemic recovery gives way to a possible recession. Analysts expect JPMorgan Chase & Co will report a 25% drop in profit on Thursday, while Citigroup Inc and Wells Fargo & Co will show 38% and 42% profit declines, respectively on Friday, according to Refinitiv I/B/E/S data. Bank of America Corp, which like its peers has big consumer and business lending franchises, is expected to show a 29% drop in profit when it reports on July 18. The plunge in profit stems from lenders adding to their reserves for expected loan losses, a reversal from a year earlier when they benefited from reducing those cushions as anticipated pandemic losses failed to materialise and the economy strengthened.
“Its going to be a shaky quarter for the sector,” said Jason Ware, chief investment officer for Albion Financial Group, which owns shares of JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley. Investors will want to hear executives’ insights into the health of the economy and if borrowers are “more shaky now,” Ware said. Banks must factor the economic outlook into loan loss reserves under an accounting standard which took effect in January 2020. While data on Friday showed the U.S. economy added more jobs than expected in June, it could still be on the verge of a recession. Gross domestic product contracted in the first quarter, with tepid consumer spending and manufacturing readings in the last two weeks. Last month, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned of an economic “hurricane,” while Morgan Stanley CEO James Gorman has said there is a 50% chance of a recession.
“The banks are going to have to build up their reserves,” said Gerard Cassidy, a bank analyst at RBC Capital Markets. JPMorgan, Citi, Wells Fargo and Bank of America, the country’s largest four lenders, could record $3.5 billion of loss provisions compared with $6.2 billion of benefits last year when they released reserves, Cassidy estimated. As a result, the banks’ bottom lines will look worse than their underlying businesses. Pre-provision, pre-tax profits for the big four will be down only 7%, according to estimates by analysts led by Jason Goldberg at Barclays. To be sure, banks are also adding to reserves for additional loans they have been making as companies have started to borrow more and consumers have been using credit cards to travel and eat out again. And actual loan losses and delinquency rates are still near record lows.
But bank executives have said more loans will go bad. Analysts will press the banks for clues on the timing and magnitude and how much they might eventually offset gains in net interest income – the difference between banks’ cost of funds and the interest they receive. Net interest income growth is the highest it has been in a decade, powered by loan growth and higher interest rates, said Goldberg. Net interest income rose 14% in the second quarter, on average, for the four biggest banks, he estimates. “You have really strong loan growth and very low loan losses,” he added. But a severe recession could cause actual loan losses and negate such gains, said Cassidy. Morgan Stanley, the sixth-biggest U.S. bank by assets and a major Wall Street player and investment manager, also reports on Thursday and is expected to show a 17% decline in profits.
The fifth-biggest bank, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is expected to report a 51% profit drop when it reports on July 18. Goldman, like Morgan Stanley, does less consumer and business lending than the four biggest banks and changes in its loan loss provisions are less important for profits. But fees Goldman makes on deals, including stock and bond underwriting, are expected to be down sharply, partially offset by more trading revenue due to increased volatility. Mortgage business revenue is expected to decline as higher interest rates dampen home loan demand and refinancing. Banks’ asset management businesses will also report lower revenue on lower stock and bond prices, Goldberg said. Reuters
Finance
Afreximbank successfully closed its second Samurai Bond transactions, raising JPY 81.8bn or $527m
African Export-Import Bank said it has successfully closed its second Samurai bond transaction, securing a total of JPY 81.8 billion (approx. USD 527 million) through Regular and Retail Samurai Bonds offerings.
The execution surpasses the Bank’s 2024 debut issuance size, attracting orders from more than 100 institutional and retail investors, marking a renewed demonstration of strong Japanese investor confidence in the Bank’s credit and its growing presence in the yen capital markets.
On 18 November, Afreximbank priced a JPY 45.8 billion 3-year tranche in the Regular Samurai market following a comprehensive sequence of investor engagement activities leveraging Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD9), including Non-Deal Roadshows (NDRs) in Tokyo, Kanazawa, Kyoto, Shiga and Osaka, a Global Investor Call, and a two-day soft-sounding process which tested investor appetite across 2.5-, 3-, 5-, 7-, and 10-year maturities.
With market expectations of a Bank of Japan interest rate increase, investor demand concentrated in shorter tenors, resulting in a focused 3-year tranche during official marketing.
The tranche attracted strong participation from asset managers (22.3%), life insurers (15.3%), regional corporates, and high-net-worth investors (39.7%).
Concurrently, Afreximbank priced its second Retail Samurai bond on 18 November, a JPY 36.0 billion 3-year tranche, more than double the inaugural JPY 14.1 billion Retail Samurai issuance completed in November 2024.
The 2025 Retail Samurai bond also marks the first Retail Samurai bond issued in Japan in 2025.
Following the amendment to Afreximbank’s shelf registration on 7 November 2025, SMBC Nikko conducted an extensive seven-business-day demand survey through its nationwide branch network, followed by a six-business-day bond offering period.
The offering benefited from strong visibility supported by Afreximbank’s investor engagement across the country, including the Bank’s participation at TICAD9, where Afreximbank hosted the Africa Finance Seminar to introduce Multinational Development Bank’s mandate in Africa and its credit profile to key Japanese institutional investors.
MBC Nikko Securities Inc. acted as Sole Lead Manager and Bookrunner for both the Regular and Retail Samurai transactions. Chandi Mwenebungu, Afreximbank’s Managing Director, Treasury & Markets and Group Treasurer, commented:
“We are pleased with the successful completion of our second Samurai bond transactions, which marked a significant increase from our inaugural Retail Samurai bond in 2024, and which reflect the growing depth of our relationship with Japanese investors.
The strong demand, both in the Regular and Retail offerings, demonstrates sustained confidence in Afreximbank’s credit and mandate.
We remain committed to deepening our engagement in the Samurai market through regular investor activities and continued collaboration with our Japanese partners.”
Finance
Ecobank unveils SME bazaar: a festive marketplace for local entrepreneurs
Ecobank Nigeria, a member of Africa’s leading pan-African banking group, has announced the launch of the Ecobank SME Bazaar—a two-weekend festive marketplace designed to celebrate local creativity, empower entrepreneurs, and give Lagos residents a premium shopping experience this Detty December. The Bazaar will hold on 29–30 November and 6–7 December at the Ecobank Pan African Centre (EPAC), Ozumba Mbadiwe Road, Victoria Island, Lagos. Speaking ahead of the event, Omoboye Odu, Head of SMEs, Ecobank Nigeria, reaffirmed the bank’s commitment to supporting small and medium-sized businesses, describing them as the heartbeat of Nigeria’s economy. She explained that the Ecobank SME Bazaar was created to enhance visibility for entrepreneurs, expand market access, and support sustainable business growth.
According to her, “This isn’t just a market—it’s a vibrant hub of culture, commerce, and connection. From fresh farm produce to trendy fashion, handcrafted pieces, lifestyle products, and delicious food and drinks, the Ecobank SME Bazaar promises an unforgettable experience for both shoppers and participating SMEs. Whether you’re shopping for festive gifts, hunting for unique finds, or soaking in the Detty December energy, this is the place to be.” Ms. Odu added that participating businesses will enjoy increased brand exposure, deeper customer engagement, and meaningful networking opportunities—making the Bazaar a strong platform for both festive-season sales and long-term business growth. The event is powered by Ecobank in partnership with TKD Farms, Eko Marche, Leyyow, and other SME-focused organisations committed to building sustainable enterprises.
Finance
16 banks have recapitalised before deadline—CBN
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has said that16 banks have so far met the new capital requirements for their various licences, some four months before the March 31, 2026 deadline. The apex bank also indicated that 27 other banks have raised capital through various methods in one of the most extensive financial sector reforms since 2004. Addressing journalists at the end of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting in Abuja, CBN Governor Mr Olayemi Cardoso said the banking recapitalisation was going on orderly, consistent with the regulator’s expectations. He said, “We are monitoring developments, and indications show the process is moving in the right direction.” Nigeria has 44 deposit-taking banks, including seven commercial banks with international authorisation, 15 with national authorisation, four with regional authorisation, four non-interest banks, six merchant banks, seven financial holding companies and one representative office.
Cardoso explained that eight commercial banks had met the N500 billion capital requirement as of July 22, 2024, rising to 14 by September of the same year. The number has now increased to 16 as the industry continues to race toward full compliance. He said that the reforms would reinforce the resilience of Nigerian banks both within the country and across the continent. “We are building a financial system that will be fit for purpose for the years ahead. Many Nigerian banks now operate across Africa and have been innovative across different markets. These new buffers will better equip them to manage risks in the multiple jurisdictions where they operate,” Cardoso said. According to him, the reforms would strengthen the financial sector’s capability to support households and businesses. He said, “Ultimately, this benefits Nigerians—our traders, our businesses and our citizens—who operate across those regions. “It should give everyone comfort to know that Nigerian banks with deep local understanding are present to support them. Commercial banks are also creating their own buffers through the ongoing recapitalisation.”
He added that the apex bank considered several factors in determining the new capital thresholds, including prevailing macroeconomic conditions, stress test results and the need for stronger risk buffers. He reassured on the regulator’s commitment to strict oversight as the consolidation progresses. “We will rigorously enforce our ‘fit and proper’ criteria for prospective new shareholders, senior management, and board members of banks, and proactively monitor the integrity of financial statements, adequacy of financial resources, and fair valuation of banks’ post-merger balance sheets,” Cardoso said. He said the CBN remained confident that the banking system would emerge stronger at the conclusion of the recapitalization exercise, with institutions better prepared to support Nigeria’s economic transformation Banks have up till March 31, 2026 to beef up their minimum capital base to the new standard set by the apex bank. Under the new minimum capital base, CBN uses a distinctive definition of the new minimum capital base for each category of banks as the addition of share capital and share premium, as against the previous use of shareholders’ funds.
While most banks have shareholders’ funds in excess of the new minimum capital base, their share premium and share capital significantly fall short of the new minimum definition. The CBN had in March 2024 released its circular on review of minimum capital requirement for commercial, merchant and non-interest banks. The apex bank increased the new minimum capital for commercial banks with international affiliations, otherwise known as mega banks, to N500 billion; commercial banks with national authorisation, N200 billion and commercial banks with regional license, N50 billion. Others included merchant banks, N50 billion; non-interest banks with national license, N20 billion and non-interest banks with regional license will now have N10 billion minimum capital. The 24-month timeline for compliance ends on March 31, 2026. Under the guidelines for the recapitalisation exercise, banks are expected to subject their new equity funds to capital verification before the clearance of the allotment proposal and release of the funds to the bank for onwards completion of the offer process and addition of the new capital to its capital base. The CBN is the final signatory in a tripartite capital verification committee that included the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC). The committee is saddled with scrutinising new funds being raised by banks under the ongoing banking sector recapitalisation exercise.
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