Economy
Senate Approves 2023 – 2025 MTEF /FSP, moves budget oil price benchmark from $70 to $73 per barrel
Senate has passed the 2023 – 2025 Medium Term Expenditure Frame Work and Fiscal Strategy Paper, MTEF /FSP preparatory to the President presentation of the 2022 budget proposals to the joint session of the National Assembly on Friday. The approval was sequel to the consideration of the Senator Olamilekan Adeola, led Senate Committee on Finance. Senators were however divided over one of the recommendations of the committee that suggested the cost of subsidy that should be capped at N1.7 trillion which is less than the N3.6 trillion initially proposed by the Executive. During the consideration of the report, the Senate kicked against move by its committee on Finance to reduce N3.6 trillion proposed for subsidy in the 2023 budget by the executive to N1.7 trillion. President Muhammadu Buhari had in the 2023 – 2025 MTEF /FSP proposed N3.6trillion for fuel subsidy from January to June in 2023, just as the Senate Committee in its report on the proposals presented for consideration by the Senate , recommended N1.7trillion for fuel subsidy for the entire 2023 which was however rejected by sustaining the earlier proposed N3.6trillion earmarked for subsidy . The Committee’s recommendation for $73 per barrel oil price benchmark for the proposed N19.76 2023 budget was however approved against $70 per barrel proposed by the executive in the MTEF/FSP documents.
According to the Senate, the daily crude oil production of 1.69 mbpd, 1.83 mbpd, and 1.83 mbpd for 2023, 2024 and 2025 respectively, be approved and that the oil price of $73 per barrel of crude oil be approved as a result of continuous increase in the oil price in the global oil market and other peculiar situations such as the war in Ukraine by Russia as this will result in saving of N155 billion. According to the Senate, the exchange rate of N437.57 be sustained as contained in the MTEF FSP document with continuous engagement between the Central Bank of Nigeria and Federal Ministry of Finance, Budget and National Planning with the view of bridging the gap between the official market and parallel market. In his presentation, Senator Adeola said that the scenario 2 of the 2023 budget proposed by the executive in the MTEF / FSP document , was adopted by the committee because of lesser vote for budget deficit and over N1trillion for capital votes for the various Ministries , Departments and Agencies ( MDAs) .
The scenario two has a proposed total expenditure profile of N19.76trillion and deficit of N11.30trillion as against scenario one which has a proposed total expenditure profile of N18.75 trillion with deficit of N12.41trillion and zero allocation for capital projects for the MDAs. The scenario two proposed recommended by the committee for approval by the Senate and accordingly approved is based on other critical parameters like 1.69million barrel oil production per day , N437.57k exchange rate to a US dollar and 3.75% Gross Domestic Product ( GDP) growth rate. Others are projected inflation rate of 17.16% and new borrowings of N8.437trillion , N6.31trillion for Debt Service, N722.11billion as statutory transfers etc .
The report said, ” A retained revenue of N9.352 trillion as result of increase in the benchmark as the ceiling oil subsidy to the year in review; Fiscal deficit of N11.3 trillion (including GOEs); “New Borrowings of N8.437trillion (including Foreign and domestic Borrowing), subject to the provision of details of the borrowing plan to the National Assembly; Statutory transfers, totaling, N722.11 billion; Debt Service estimate of N6.31 trillion; Sinking Fund to the tune of N247.7 billion; Pension, Gratuities & Retirees Benefits of N827.8 billion; and Aggregate FGN Expenditure of N19.76 trillion; made up of Total Recurrent (Non-debt) of N8.53 trillion; Personnel Costs (MDAs) of N827.8 billion; of Capital expenditure (exclusive of Transfers) N3.96 trillion; Special Intervention (Recurrent) amounting to N350 billion; and Special intervention (Capital) of N7 billion.” The Senate approved the recommendation on exiting of 10 out of the 63 Government Owned Enterprises ( GOEs). The affected GOEs are the Nigerian Communication Commission ( NCC) , Corporate Affairs Commission ( CAC) , Nigeria Port Authority ( NPA) , Joint Admission and Matriculation Board ( JAMB) and Nigerian Maritime Administration and Safety Agency ( NIMASA). Others are the Federal Inland Revenue Service ( FIRS), Nigeria Customs Service ( NCS) , National Agency for Food and Drug Administration and Control ( NAFDAC) , Nigeria Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission ( NUPRC) and Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Agency ( NMPDRA) .
The recommendation states :”That the relevant oversight committees of National Assembly are at liberty to remove recycled projects in their budget proposal during the Committees’ budget defecse. “Mainstreaming of annual GOEs’ budgets into the federal government budget processes to ensure the same level of scrutiny, procurement and monitoring exercise. “That 10 out of the 63 GOEs be placed on cost of collections to serve as a test case for other GOEs which can be added in the future , the list of this GOEs includes; NCC, CAC, NPA, NIMASA, NUPRC, FIRS, CUSTOMS, NMPDRA, JAMB, NAFDAC, with immediate effect with the proposed finance bill 2023 coming up with the amendment the existing Act of the above mentioned agencies.” Meanwhile, prior to the approval, many Senators in their contributions, expressed their reservations on the N437 exchange rate to a dollar which according to them gives over N300 difference to the N 730 or N740 to a dollar it is at the parallel market .
Responding, Senator Adeola said that the committee tried to increase the exchange rate from N437 to N550 to a US dollar, but had to do it with caution to avoid further devaluation of the Naira. In his remarks, President of the Senate, Senator Ahmad Lawan who noted that based on the observations and findings made by the Committee, said that Nigeria at the moment is in a war situation as far as crude oil theft is concerned and also under revenue remittances by many of the MDAs. He said, ” The scenarios proposed are very challenging ones and all hands must be on deck to stem the tide. The passed MTEF / FSP documents , will be the basis upon which President Muhammadu Buhari will anchor projections and proposals of the 2023 budget scheduled for presentation to joint session of the National Assembly Friday this week.
Economy
Nigeria champions African-Arab trade to boost agribusiness, industrial growth
The Arab Africa Trade Bridges (AATB) Program and the Federal Republic of Nigeria formalized a partnership with the signing of the AATB Membership Agreement, officially welcoming Nigeria as the Program’s newest member country. The signing ceremony took place in Abuja on the sidelines of the 5th AATB Board of Governors Meeting, hosted by the Federal Government of Nigeria.
The Membership Agreement was signed by Eng. Adeeb Y. Al Aama, the CEO of the International Islamic Trade Finance Corporation (ITFC) and AATB Program Secretary General, and H.E. Mr. Wale Edun, Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Federal Republic of Nigeria. The Agreement will provide a strategic and operational framework to support Nigeria’s efforts in trade competitiveness, promote export diversification, strengthen priority value chains, and advance capacity-building efforts in line with national development priorities. Areas of collaboration will include trade promotion, agribusiness modernization, SME development, businessmen missions, trade facilitation, logistics efficiency, and digital trade readiness.
The Honourable Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr. Wale Edun, called for deeper trade collaboration between African and Arab nations, stressing the importance of value-added Agribusiness and industrial partnerships for regional growth. Speaking in Abuja at the Agribusiness Matchmaking Forum ahead of the AATB Board of Governors Meeting, the Minister said the shifting global economy makes it essential for African and Arab nations to rely more on regional cooperation, investment and shared markets.
He highlighted projections showing Arab-Africa trade could grow by more than US$37 billion in the next three years and urged partners to prioritize value addition rather than raw commodity exports. He noted that Nigeria’s growing industrial base and upcoming National Single Window reforms will support efficiency, investment and private-sector expansion.
“This is a moment to turn opportunity into action”, he said. “By working together, we can build stronger value chains, create jobs and support prosperity across our regions”, Edun emphasized. “As African and Arab nations embark on this journey of deeper trade collaboration, the potential for growth and development is vast. With a shared vision and commitment to value-added partnerships, we can unlock new opportunities, drive economic growth, and create a brighter future for our people.”
Speaking during the event, Eng. Adeeb Y. Al Aama, Chief Executive Officer of ITFC and Secretary General of the AATB Program, stated: “We are pleased to welcome Nigeria to be part of the AATB Program. Nigeria stands as one of Africa’s most dynamic and resilient economies in Africa, with a rapidly expanding private sector and strong potential across agribusiness, energy, manufacturing, and digital industries. Through this Membership Agreement, we look forward to collaborating closely with Nigerian institutions to strengthen value chains, expand regional market access, enhance trade finance and investment opportunities, and support the country’s development priorities.”
The signing of this Agreement underscores AATB’s continued engagement with African countries and its evolving portfolio of programs supporting trade and investment. In recent years, AATB has worked on initiatives across agribusiness, textiles, logistics, digital trade, export readiness under the AfCFTA framework, and other regional initiatives such as the Common African Agro-Parks (CAAPs) Programme.
With Nigeria’s accession, the AATB Program extends it’s presence in the region and adds a key partner working toward advancing trade-led development and fostering inclusive economic growth.
Economy
FEC approves 2026–2028 MTEF, projects N34.33trn revenue
Federal Executive Council (FEC) has approved the 2026–2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF), a key fiscal document that outlines Nigeria’s revenue expectations, macroeconomic assumptions, and spending priorities for the next three years. The approval followed Wednesday’s FEC meeting presided over by President Bola Tinubu at the State House, Abuja. The Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Senator Atiku Bagudu made this known after the meeting.
The Minister said the Federal Government is projecting a total revenue inflow of N34.33 trillion in 2026, including N4.98 trillion expected from government-owned enterprises. Bagudu said that the projected revenue is N6.55 trillion lower than earlier estimates, adding that federal allocations are expected to drop by about N9.4 trillion, representing a 16% decline compared to the 2025 budget.
He said that statutory transfers are expected to amount to about N3 trillion within the same fiscal year. On macroeconomic assumptions, FEC adopted an oil production benchmark of 2.6 million barrels per day (mbpd) for 2026, although a more conservative 1.8 mbpd will be used for budgeting purposes. An oil price benchmark of $64 per barrel and an exchange rate of N1,512 per dollar were also approved.
Bagudu said the exchange rate assumption reflects projections tied to economic and political developments ahead of the 2027 general elections. He said the exchange rate assumption took into account the fiscal outlook ahead of the 2027 general elections.
The minister said that all the parameters were based on macroeconomic analysis by the Budget Office and other relevant agencies. Bagudu said FEC also reviewed comments from cabinet members before approving the Medium-Term Fiscal Expenditure Ceiling (MFTEC), which sets expenditure limits. Earlier, the Senate approved the external borrowing plan of $21.5 billion presented by President Tinubu for consideration The loans, according to the Senate, were part of the MTEF and Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP) for the 2025 budget.
Economy
CBN hikes interest on treasury Bills above inflation rate
The spot rate on Nigerian Treasury bills has been increased by 146 basis points by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) following tight subscription levels at the main auction on Wednesday. The spot rate on Treasury bills with one-year maturity has now surpassed Nigeria’s 16.05% inflation by 145 basis points following a recent decision to keep the policy rate at 27%.
The Apex Bank came to the primary market with N700 billion Treasury bills offer size across standard tenors, including 91-day, 182-day and 364 day maturities. Details from the auction results showed that demand settled slightly above the total offers as investors began to seek higher returns on naira assets despite disinflation.
Total subscription came in at about N775 billion versus N700 billion offers floated at the main auction. The results showed rising appetite for duration as investors parked about 90% of their bids on Nigerian Treasury bills with 364 days maturity. The CBN opened N100 billion worth of 91 days bills for subscription, but the offer received underwhelming bids totalling N44.17 billion.
The CBN allotted N42.80 billion for the short-term instrument at the spot rate of 15.30%, the same as the previous auction. Total demand for 182 days Nigerian Treasury bills settled at N33.38 billion as against N150 billion that the authority pushed out for subscription. The CBN raised N30.36 billion from 182 days bills allotted to investors at the spot rate of 15.50%, the same as the previous auction.
Investors staked N697.29 billion on N450 billion in 364-day Treasury bills that was offered for subscription. The CBN raised N636.46 billion from the longest tenor at the spot rate of 17.50%, up from 16.04% at the previous auction.
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