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Warren Buffett says more banks may fail, willing to bet $1m depositors won’t lose money

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Warren Buffett said there’s a possibility that more U.S. banks could eventually fail, but he’s extremely confident that no depositors will lose the money they have parked in the banking system. In fact, he’s willing to bet on it. “We’re not over bank failures, but depositors haven’t had a crisis,” the Berkshire Hathaway chairman and CEO said in an interview on CNBC on Wednesday. More banks could go bust, but “depositors aren’t going to be hurt.” Buffett said he would be willing to wager $1 million that no taxpayers would lose deposits due to a bank failure this year, thanks to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., an entity he said is poorly understood by the general public. The FDIC insures deposits up to $250,000, although U.S. authorities guaranteed all deposits in Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, two of the largest bank failures in U.S. history.

Crypto-focused Silvergate Bank also shut down last month. The failures of all three banks contributed to a crisis of confidence that had repercussions as far away as Switzerland, where UBS Group struck a government-backed deal to take over crosstown rival Credit Suisse. “The costs of the FDIC are borne by the banks. Banks have never cost the Federal Government a dime. The public doesn’t understand that,” Buffett said. “Nobody is going to lose money on a deposit in a U.S. bank. It’s not going to happen. You don’t need to turn a dumb decision by managers into panicking the whole citizenry of the United States about something they don’t need to be panicked about.” Banking collapses “won’t cost the government a penny.” Comparing the latest round of banking-sector ructions to the 2008 crisis that led to the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers and the collapse of Bear Stearns, Buffett said bankers’ behaviour in the run up to the previous crisis was more “reprehensible.”Still, he blamed profit-hungry management teams for making a “mishmash” of assets and liabilities this time around, saying accounting practices that allow banks to hold to maturity rather than marking them to market value were partly to blame.

“Accounting procedures have driven bankers to do some things that would help their current earnings a little bit and caused the recurring temptation to get a little bit bigger spread and get a little bit more earnings,” he said. Asked about the potential risks of shielding all banking deposits from losses, Buffett offered up a seemingly novel plan for holding bankers accountable. If a bank fails because of management missteps, the board of directors should be forced to return all the money they were paid, and the management team should be stripped of their pensions and cushy lifestyles. Anybody that’s CEO of a bank that screws up and costs shareholders a lot of money, they get no pension, that they go back to living like a person who works on the production line of Ford. They don’t deserve anything special,” he said.

Buffett pushed back when asked if banks like First Republic Bank are currently a “steal” for investors due to their heavily depressed share price. Equity holders and bond holders would be wiped out if the bank fails, he said. Berkshire’s decision to dump its bank stocks isn’t a reflection on management, he said, but rather an indication of his cooling interest in the sector. The conversation soon turned to banks’ loan books, particularly risks poised by souring loans on office buildings that have shone an uncomfortable spotlight on the sector’s exposure to commercial real estate. Some banks might be forced to eat losses on their CRE loans. But Buffett doesn’t expect their exposure to pose a broader threat, he said. “Banks can take a lot of loan losses, but they can’t take something that wipes out their capital,” he said. “You expect to lose some money in banking. It’s not a sure thing on every loan.”

Ultimately, some banks might be forced to take possession of buildings from defaulting borrowers. Before cutting to a commercial break, Buffett’s interlocutors solicited his view on the Federal Reserve. Did the central bank keep interest rates too low for too long. “Who knows? I don’t know precisely what they should do, nobody does,” he said. “They followed conventional wisdom. Sometimes it works out, sometimes it doesn’t.” Earlier in the interview, Buffett discussed why he decided to increase Berkshire’s stake in five Japanese trading houses, including Sumitomo and Mitsubishi. He told CNBC that when he looked at the companies roughly four years ago, he “generally understood” what they did and noted similarities to Berkshire. “They were selling at what I thought was a ridiculous price, compared to the prevailing interest rate at the time,” he added. MW

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Afreximbank successfully closed its second Samurai Bond transactions, raising JPY 81.8bn or $527m

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African Export-Import Bank said it has successfully closed its second Samurai bond transaction, securing a total of JPY 81.8 billion (approx. USD 527 million) through Regular and Retail Samurai Bonds offerings.

The execution surpasses the Bank’s 2024 debut issuance size, attracting orders from more than 100 institutional and retail investors, marking a renewed demonstration of strong Japanese investor confidence in the Bank’s credit and its growing presence in the yen capital markets.

On 18 November, Afreximbank priced a JPY 45.8 billion 3-year tranche in the Regular Samurai market following a comprehensive sequence of investor engagement activities leveraging Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD9), including Non-Deal Roadshows (NDRs) in Tokyo, Kanazawa, Kyoto, Shiga and Osaka, a Global Investor Call, and a two-day soft-sounding process which tested investor appetite across 2.5-, 3-, 5-, 7-, and 10-year maturities.

With market expectations of a Bank of Japan interest rate increase, investor demand concentrated in shorter tenors, resulting in a focused 3-year tranche during official marketing.

The tranche attracted strong participation from asset managers (22.3%), life insurers (15.3%), regional corporates, and high-net-worth investors (39.7%).

Concurrently, Afreximbank priced its second Retail Samurai bond on 18 November, a JPY 36.0 billion 3-year tranche, more than double the inaugural JPY 14.1 billion Retail Samurai issuance completed in November 2024.

The 2025 Retail Samurai bond also marks the first Retail Samurai bond issued in Japan in 2025.

Following the amendment to Afreximbank’s shelf registration on 7 November 2025, SMBC Nikko conducted an extensive seven-business-day demand survey through its nationwide branch network, followed by a six-business-day bond offering period.

The offering benefited from strong visibility supported by Afreximbank’s investor engagement across the country, including the Bank’s participation at TICAD9, where Afreximbank hosted the Africa Finance Seminar to introduce Multinational Development Bank’s mandate in Africa and its credit profile to key Japanese institutional investors.

MBC Nikko Securities Inc. acted as Sole Lead Manager and Bookrunner for both the Regular and Retail Samurai transactions. Chandi Mwenebungu, Afreximbank’s Managing Director, Treasury & Markets and Group Treasurer, commented:

“We are pleased with the successful completion of our second Samurai bond transactions, which marked a significant increase from our inaugural Retail Samurai bond in 2024, and which reflect the growing depth of our relationship with Japanese investors.

The strong demand, both in the Regular and Retail offerings, demonstrates sustained confidence in Afreximbank’s credit and mandate.

We remain committed to deepening our engagement in the Samurai market through regular investor activities and continued collaboration with our Japanese partners.”

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Ecobank unveils SME bazaar: a festive marketplace for local entrepreneurs

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Ecobank Nigeria, a member of Africa’s leading pan-African banking group, has announced the launch of the Ecobank SME Bazaar—a two-weekend festive marketplace designed to celebrate local creativity, empower entrepreneurs, and give Lagos residents a premium shopping experience this Detty December. The Bazaar will hold on 29–30 November and 6–7 December at the Ecobank Pan African Centre (EPAC), Ozumba Mbadiwe Road, Victoria Island, Lagos. Speaking ahead of the event, Omoboye Odu, Head of SMEs, Ecobank Nigeria, reaffirmed the bank’s commitment to supporting small and medium-sized businesses, describing them as the heartbeat of Nigeria’s economy. She explained that the Ecobank SME Bazaar was created to enhance visibility for entrepreneurs, expand market access, and support sustainable business growth.
According to her, “This isn’t just a market—it’s a vibrant hub of culture, commerce, and connection. From fresh farm produce to trendy fashion, handcrafted pieces, lifestyle products, and delicious food and drinks, the Ecobank SME Bazaar promises an unforgettable experience for both shoppers and participating SMEs. Whether you’re shopping for festive gifts, hunting for unique finds, or soaking in the Detty December energy, this is the place to be.” Ms. Odu added that participating businesses will enjoy increased brand exposure, deeper customer engagement, and meaningful networking opportunities—making the Bazaar a strong platform for both festive-season sales and long-term business growth. The event is powered by Ecobank in partnership with TKD Farms, Eko Marche, Leyyow, and other SME-focused organisations committed to building sustainable enterprises.

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16 banks have recapitalised before deadline—CBN

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The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has said that16 banks have so far met the new capital requirements for their various licences, some four months before the March 31, 2026 deadline. The apex bank also indicated that 27 other banks have raised capital through various methods in one of the most extensive financial sector reforms since 2004. Addressing journalists at the end of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting in Abuja, CBN Governor Mr Olayemi Cardoso said the banking recapitalisation was going on orderly, consistent with the regulator’s expectations. He said, “We are monitoring developments, and indications show the process is moving in the right direction.” Nigeria has 44 deposit-taking banks, including seven commercial banks with international authorisation, 15 with national authorisation, four with regional authorisation, four non-interest banks, six merchant banks, seven financial holding companies and one representative office.
Cardoso explained that eight commercial banks had met the N500 billion capital requirement as of July 22, 2024, rising to 14 by September of the same year. The number has now increased to 16 as the industry continues to race toward full compliance. He said that the reforms would reinforce the resilience of Nigerian banks both within the country and across the continent. “We are building a financial system that will be fit for purpose for the years ahead. Many Nigerian banks now operate across Africa and have been innovative across different markets. These new buffers will better equip them to manage risks in the multiple jurisdictions where they operate,” Cardoso said. According to him, the reforms would strengthen the financial sector’s capability to support households and businesses. He said, “Ultimately, this benefits Nigerians—our traders, our businesses and our citizens—who operate across those regions. “It should give everyone comfort to know that Nigerian banks with deep local understanding are present to support them. Commercial banks are also creating their own buffers through the ongoing recapitalisation.”
He added that the apex bank considered several factors in determining the new capital thresholds, including prevailing macroeconomic conditions, stress test results and the need for stronger risk buffers. He reassured on the regulator’s commitment to strict oversight as the consolidation progresses. “We will rigorously enforce our ‘fit and proper’ criteria for prospective new shareholders, senior management, and board members of banks, and proactively monitor the integrity of financial statements, adequacy of financial resources, and fair valuation of banks’ post-merger balance sheets,” Cardoso said. He said the CBN remained confident that the banking system would emerge stronger at the conclusion of the recapitalization exercise, with institutions better prepared to support Nigeria’s economic transformation Banks have up till March 31, 2026 to beef up their minimum capital base to the new standard set by the apex bank. Under the new minimum capital base, CBN uses a distinctive definition of the new minimum capital base for each category of banks as the addition of share capital and share premium, as against the previous use of shareholders’ funds.
While most banks have shareholders’ funds in excess of the new minimum capital base, their share premium and share capital significantly fall short of the new minimum definition. The CBN had in March 2024 released its circular on review of minimum capital requirement for commercial, merchant and non-interest banks. The apex bank increased the new minimum capital for commercial banks with international affiliations, otherwise known as mega banks, to N500 billion; commercial banks with national authorisation, N200 billion and commercial banks with regional license, N50 billion. Others included merchant banks, N50 billion; non-interest banks with national license, N20 billion and non-interest banks with regional license will now have N10 billion minimum capital. The 24-month timeline for compliance ends on March 31, 2026. Under the guidelines for the recapitalisation exercise, banks are expected to subject their new equity funds to capital verification before the clearance of the allotment proposal and release of the funds to the bank for onwards completion of the offer process and addition of the new capital to its capital base. The CBN is the final signatory in a tripartite capital verification committee that included the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC). The committee is saddled with scrutinising new funds being raised by banks under the ongoing banking sector recapitalisation exercise.

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