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Capital inflow into Nigeria drops by 28% in Q1 2023

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National Bureau of Statistic has said that Nigeria’s total capital inflow for the first quarter of 2023 dropped by 28% in the first quarter of 2023. According to the NBS latest report Capital inflow for the first three months of the year stood at $1.13 billion- a drop of $441 million when compared to the corresponding quarter of 2022. Capital importation for the first quarter of 2022 was $1.5 billion. When compared to the preceding quarter, that is Q4 of 2022, the capital inflow rose by  6.78% from $1.06 billion.  

During the first quarter, the Bureau said, Nigeria received more capital investments from portfolio investments than from any other sector. The portfolio investments accounted for approximately $649 million, constituting 57.32% of the total capital inflow. Within the portfolio investments category, Nigeria received $301 million from bonds, $222 million from equities, and $125 million from money markets. In addition to portfolio investments, Nigeria also attracted foreign capital through other sectors such as trade credits, loans, and currency deposits. 

The report further indicated that The United Kingdom emerged as the leading provider of capital inflow into Nigeria, contributing $673 million, which represents 59.47% of the total capital inflow. The United Arab Emirates followed with $108 million, while the United States of America provided $95 million. South Africa and Singapore contributed $91 million and $69 million, respectively. 

The data said that investment destinations within Nigeria, showed that Lagos state received the largest share of capital inflow, amounting to $704 million out of the total $1.13 billion, accounting for 62% of the total investment capital into the country. The Federal Capital Territory (FCT) followed, receiving $410 million. Akwa Ibom, Adamawa, and Anambra completed the top five states, receiving $5.2 million, $4.5 million, and $4.0 million, respectively. 

A breakdown of foreign capital inflow by sector showed that the banking sector attracted the most foreign capital during the first quarter, receiving 26% ($304 million) of the total foreign capital. The production sector closely followed with 22.61% ($256 million), and IT services received 19% ($216 million). The finance sector recorded a capital inflow of $118 million, while trading received $91 million. The telecoms sector received $22.5 million, and the transport sector attracted $12.94 million. Agriculture received a modest $4.84 million, while shares gained $88 million. 

The oil and gas sectors, brewery, and electricals represented 0.07%, 0.06%, and 0.65% of the total capital inflow, respectively.  Cross-border capital flows offer significant advantages as they allow for risk diversification and higher investor returns. Additionally, they provide recipient countries with funding for accelerated investment, economic growth, and increased consumption. Despite the decrease in total capital importation, the investments across sectors, countries, and banks provide insights into the trends and preferences shaping Nigeria’s economy in the first quarter of 2023.  Foreign investment inflows have slowed in Nigeria in the past years due to tight capital controls, rising insecurity, and poor infrastructure that has made it difficult for external investors. 

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Economy

Nigeria champions African-Arab trade to boost agribusiness, industrial growth

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The Arab Africa Trade Bridges (AATB) Program and the Federal Republic of Nigeria formalized a partnership with the signing of the AATB Membership Agreement, officially welcoming Nigeria as the Program’s newest member country. The signing ceremony took place in Abuja on the sidelines of the 5th AATB Board of Governors Meeting, hosted by the Federal Government of Nigeria.

The Membership Agreement was signed by Eng. Adeeb Y. Al Aama, the CEO of the International Islamic Trade Finance Corporation (ITFC) and AATB Program Secretary General, and H.E. Mr. Wale Edun, Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Federal Republic of Nigeria. The Agreement will provide a strategic and operational framework to support Nigeria’s efforts in trade competitiveness, promote export diversification, strengthen priority value chains, and advance capacity-building efforts in line with national development priorities. Areas of collaboration will include trade promotion, agribusiness modernization, SME development, businessmen missions, trade facilitation, logistics efficiency, and digital trade readiness.

The Honourable Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr. Wale Edun, called for deeper trade collaboration between African and Arab nations, stressing the importance of value-added Agribusiness and industrial partnerships for regional growth. Speaking in Abuja at the Agribusiness Matchmaking Forum ahead of the AATB Board of Governors Meeting, the Minister said the shifting global economy makes it essential for African and Arab nations to rely more on regional cooperation, investment and shared markets.

He highlighted projections showing Arab-Africa trade could grow by more than US$37 billion in the next three years and urged partners to prioritize value addition rather than raw commodity exports. He noted that Nigeria’s growing industrial base and upcoming National Single Window reforms will support efficiency, investment and private-sector expansion.

“This is a moment to turn opportunity into action”, he said. “By working together, we can build stronger value chains, create jobs and support prosperity across our regions”, Edun emphasized. “As African and Arab nations embark on this journey of deeper trade collaboration, the potential for growth and development is vast. With a shared vision and commitment to value-added partnerships, we can unlock new opportunities, drive economic growth, and create a brighter future for our people.”

Speaking during the event, Eng. Adeeb Y. Al Aama, Chief Executive Officer of ITFC and Secretary General of the AATB Program, stated: “We are pleased to welcome Nigeria to be part of the AATB Program. Nigeria stands as one of Africa’s most dynamic and resilient economies in Africa, with a rapidly expanding private sector and strong potential across agribusiness, energy, manufacturing, and digital industries. Through this Membership Agreement, we look forward to collaborating closely with Nigerian institutions to strengthen value chains, expand regional market access, enhance trade finance and investment opportunities, and support the country’s development priorities.”

The signing of this Agreement underscores AATB’s continued engagement with African countries and its evolving portfolio of programs supporting trade and investment. In recent years, AATB has worked on initiatives across agribusiness, textiles, logistics, digital trade, export readiness under the AfCFTA framework, and other regional initiatives such as the Common African Agro-Parks (CAAPs) Programme.

With Nigeria’s accession, the AATB Program extends it’s presence in the region and adds a key partner working toward advancing trade-led development and fostering inclusive economic growth.

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Economy

FEC approves 2026–2028 MTEF, projects N34.33trn revenue 

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Federal Executive Council (FEC) has approved the 2026–2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF), a key fiscal document that outlines Nigeria’s revenue expectations, macroeconomic assumptions, and spending priorities for the next three years. The approval followed Wednesday’s FEC meeting presided over by President Bola Tinubu at the State House, Abuja. The Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Senator Atiku Bagudu made this known after the meeting.

The Minister said the Federal Government is projecting a total revenue inflow of N34.33 trillion in 2026, including N4.98 trillion expected from government-owned enterprises. Bagudu said that the projected revenue is N6.55 trillion lower than earlier estimates, adding that federal allocations are expected to drop by about N9.4 trillion, representing a 16% decline compared to the 2025 budget.

He said that statutory transfers are expected to amount to about N3 trillion within the same fiscal year. On macroeconomic assumptions, FEC adopted an oil production benchmark of 2.6 million barrels per day (mbpd) for 2026, although a more conservative 1.8 mbpd will be used for budgeting purposes. An oil price benchmark of $64 per barrel and an exchange rate of N1,512 per dollar were also approved.

Bagudu said the exchange rate assumption reflects projections tied to economic and political developments ahead of the 2027 general elections. He said the exchange rate assumption took into account the fiscal outlook ahead of the 2027 general elections.

The minister said that all the parameters were based on macroeconomic analysis by the Budget Office and other relevant agencies. Bagudu said FEC also reviewed comments from cabinet members before approving the Medium-Term Fiscal Expenditure Ceiling (MFTEC), which sets expenditure limits. Earlier, the Senate approved the external borrowing plan of $21.5 billion presented by President Tinubu for consideration The loans, according to the Senate, were part of the MTEF and Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP) for the 2025 budget.

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Economy

CBN hikes interest on treasury Bills above inflation rate

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The spot rate on Nigerian Treasury bills has been increased by 146 basis points by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) following tight subscription levels at the main auction on Wednesday. The spot rate on Treasury bills with one-year maturity has now surpassed Nigeria’s 16.05% inflation by 145 basis points following a recent decision to keep the policy rate at 27%. 

The Apex Bank came to the primary market with N700 billion Treasury bills offer size across standard tenors, including 91-day, 182-day and 364 day maturities. Details from the auction results showed that demand settled slightly above the total offers as investors began to seek higher returns on naira assets despite disinflation.

Total subscription came in at about N775 billion versus N700 billion offers floated at the main auction. The results showed rising appetite for duration as investors parked about 90% of their bids on Nigerian Treasury bills with 364 days maturity. The CBN opened N100 billion worth of 91 days bills for subscription, but the offer received underwhelming bids totalling N44.17 billion.

The CBN allotted N42.80 billion for the short-term instrument at the spot rate of 15.30%, the same as the previous auction. Total demand for 182 days Nigerian Treasury bills settled at N33.38 billion as against N150 billion that the authority pushed out for subscription. The CBN raised N30.36 billion from 182 days bills allotted to investors at the spot rate of 15.50%, the same as the previous auction.

Investors staked N697.29 billion on N450 billion in 364-day Treasury bills that was offered for subscription. The CBN raised N636.46 billion from the longest tenor at the spot rate of 17.50%, up from 16.04% at the previous auction.

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