Economy
Climate change to worsen conflicts in fragile, war-torn states resulting in higher death—IMF
International Monetary Fund, IMF, has said that Climate change is likely to worsen conflicts in fragile and war-torn states, resulting in higher death rates and greatly reduced GDP. The World Bank each year revises a list of countries classed as “fragile and conflict-afflicted states,” of which there are currently 39, and 21 are in Africa. Wednesday’s report covers all 61 countries that have been on the list since 2006. It said that climate change poses grave threats to countries across Africa, but especially fragile and conflict-affected states. It suggest that as the continent’s leaders converge on Kenya for next week’s African Climate Action Summit, it is vital that they come up with solutions to support these vulnerable countries. In its Blog post the IMF said “from the Central African Republic to Somalia and Sudan, fragile states suffer more from floods, droughts, storms and other climate-related shocks than other countries, when they have contributed the least to climate change.
“Each year, three times more people are affected by natural disasters in fragile states than in other countries. Disasters in fragile states displace more than twice the share of the population in other countries. And temperatures in fragile states are already higher than in other countries because of their geographical location. By 2040, fragile states could face 61 days a year of temperatures above 35 degrees Celsius on average—four times more than other countries. Extreme heat, along with the more frequent extreme weather events that come with it, will endanger human health and hurt productivity and jobs in key sectors such as agriculture and construction.
It said “cumulative losses in gross domestic product reach about 4 percent in fragile states three years after extreme weather events. That compares with around 1 percent in other countries. Droughts in fragile states are expected to cut about 0.2 percentage points from their per-capita GDP growth every year. This means that incomes in fragile states will be falling further behind those in other countries. The more harmful effect of climate events in fragile states is not only because of their geographical location in hotter parts of the planet, but also because of conflict, dependence on rain fed agriculture, and lower capacity to manage risks. Conflict undermines the capacity of fragile states to manage climate risks. For example, in Somalia, the areas most severely affected by food insecurity and hunger due to the prolonged drought in 2021-22 were under the control of terrorist groups that thwarted delivery of humanitarian assistance. Climate shocks also worsen underlying fragilities, such as conflict and hunger, further exacerbating the effect they have on the economy and people’s wellbeing. Our estimates indicate that in a high emissions scenario, and all else equal, deaths from conflict as a share of the population could increase by close to 10 percent in fragile countries by 2060. Climate change would also push an additional 50 million people in fragile states into hunger by 2060. The higher losses from climate events also reflect the dependence of fragile states on rain fed agriculture. Agriculture represents close to one-quarter of economic output in fragile states, but only 3 percent of cultivated areas are irrigated with canals, reservoirs, and the like. Rain fed farms are especially vulnerable to droughts and floods. Where irrigation infrastructure does exist, it is often poorly designed, left to crumble, or damaged by conflict.
In central Mali, for example, floods along the Niger river are partly caused by farmers fleeing fighting and drainage ditches falling into disrepair. Sudan’s Gezira irrigation scheme once covered 8,000 square kilometers of fecund farmland but has shrunk to less than half that area owing to poor maintenance. Finally, the higher losses from climate shocks are also because of the lack of financial means. With the financing needed for climate adaptation well beyond what fragile and conflict-affected countries can afford on their own, sizable and sustained support from international development partners—both concessional financing and capacity development—is urgent to avoid worsening hunger and conflict that can fuel forced displacement and migration. For policymakers in these countries, critical interventions include policies to facilitate immediate response to climate shocks, such as building buffers through more domestic revenues, lower public debt and deficits, and higher international reserves. The paper indeed finds that fragile countries with such buffers see a faster recovery from extreme weather events. Strengthening social safety nets and leveraging insurance schemes are also key to financing recovery in the case of catastrophic events. In addition, fragile countries need to implement policies to build climate resilience over time, including scaling up climate-resilient infrastructure investments.
“The IMF is stepping up support to fragile states dealing with climate challenges through carefully designed policy advice, financial assistance, and capacity development. Our strategy promotes a deeper understanding of the drivers of fragility, tailoring of programs, scaling up capacity development, and synergies with other partners that work in these countries. We are also providing financial support through standard facilities, emergency financing and, more recently, our new Resilience and Sustainability Facility. These efforts by the IMF and other ongoing initiatives by international partners are still a drop in the big effort needed across the entire international community to protect the most vulnerable. The Africa Climate Summit could be a step forward towards generating effective solutions for mitigating the devastating impact of natural disasters and droughts on the continent’s people and economies”.
The Arab Africa Trade Bridges (AATB) Program and the Federal Republic of Nigeria formalized a partnership with the signing of the AATB Membership Agreement, officially welcoming Nigeria as the Program’s newest member country. The signing ceremony took place in Abuja on the sidelines of the 5th AATB Board of Governors Meeting, hosted by the Federal Government of Nigeria.
The Membership Agreement was signed by Eng. Adeeb Y. Al Aama, the CEO of the International Islamic Trade Finance Corporation (ITFC) and AATB Program Secretary General, and H.E. Mr. Wale Edun, Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Federal Republic of Nigeria. The Agreement will provide a strategic and operational framework to support Nigeria’s efforts in trade competitiveness, promote export diversification, strengthen priority value chains, and advance capacity-building efforts in line with national development priorities. Areas of collaboration will include trade promotion, agribusiness modernization, SME development, businessmen missions, trade facilitation, logistics efficiency, and digital trade readiness.
The Honourable Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr. Wale Edun, called for deeper trade collaboration between African and Arab nations, stressing the importance of value-added Agribusiness and industrial partnerships for regional growth. Speaking in Abuja at the Agribusiness Matchmaking Forum ahead of the AATB Board of Governors Meeting, the Minister said the shifting global economy makes it essential for African and Arab nations to rely more on regional cooperation, investment and shared markets.
He highlighted projections showing Arab-Africa trade could grow by more than US$37 billion in the next three years and urged partners to prioritize value addition rather than raw commodity exports. He noted that Nigeria’s growing industrial base and upcoming National Single Window reforms will support efficiency, investment and private-sector expansion.
“This is a moment to turn opportunity into action”, he said. “By working together, we can build stronger value chains, create jobs and support prosperity across our regions”, Edun emphasized. “As African and Arab nations embark on this journey of deeper trade collaboration, the potential for growth and development is vast. With a shared vision and commitment to value-added partnerships, we can unlock new opportunities, drive economic growth, and create a brighter future for our people.”
Speaking during the event, Eng. Adeeb Y. Al Aama, Chief Executive Officer of ITFC and Secretary General of the AATB Program, stated: “We are pleased to welcome Nigeria to be part of the AATB Program. Nigeria stands as one of Africa’s most dynamic and resilient economies in Africa, with a rapidly expanding private sector and strong potential across agribusiness, energy, manufacturing, and digital industries. Through this Membership Agreement, we look forward to collaborating closely with Nigerian institutions to strengthen value chains, expand regional market access, enhance trade finance and investment opportunities, and support the country’s development priorities.”
The signing of this Agreement underscores AATB’s continued engagement with African countries and its evolving portfolio of programs supporting trade and investment. In recent years, AATB has worked on initiatives across agribusiness, textiles, logistics, digital trade, export readiness under the AfCFTA framework, and other regional initiatives such as the Common African Agro-Parks (CAAPs) Programme.
With Nigeria’s accession, the AATB Program extends it’s presence in the region and adds a key partner working toward advancing trade-led development and fostering inclusive economic growth.
Federal Executive Council (FEC) has approved the 2026–2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF), a key fiscal document that outlines Nigeria’s revenue expectations, macroeconomic assumptions, and spending priorities for the next three years. The approval followed Wednesday’s FEC meeting presided over by President Bola Tinubu at the State House, Abuja. The Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Senator Atiku Bagudu made this known after the meeting.
The Minister said the Federal Government is projecting a total revenue inflow of N34.33 trillion in 2026, including N4.98 trillion expected from government-owned enterprises. Bagudu said that the projected revenue is N6.55 trillion lower than earlier estimates, adding that federal allocations are expected to drop by about N9.4 trillion, representing a 16% decline compared to the 2025 budget.
He said that statutory transfers are expected to amount to about N3 trillion within the same fiscal year. On macroeconomic assumptions, FEC adopted an oil production benchmark of 2.6 million barrels per day (mbpd) for 2026, although a more conservative 1.8 mbpd will be used for budgeting purposes. An oil price benchmark of $64 per barrel and an exchange rate of N1,512 per dollar were also approved.
Bagudu said the exchange rate assumption reflects projections tied to economic and political developments ahead of the 2027 general elections. He said the exchange rate assumption took into account the fiscal outlook ahead of the 2027 general elections.
The minister said that all the parameters were based on macroeconomic analysis by the Budget Office and other relevant agencies. Bagudu said FEC also reviewed comments from cabinet members before approving the Medium-Term Fiscal Expenditure Ceiling (MFTEC), which sets expenditure limits. Earlier, the Senate approved the external borrowing plan of $21.5 billion presented by President Tinubu for consideration The loans, according to the Senate, were part of the MTEF and Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP) for the 2025 budget.
The spot rate on Nigerian Treasury bills has been increased by 146 basis points by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) following tight subscription levels at the main auction on Wednesday. The spot rate on Treasury bills with one-year maturity has now surpassed Nigeria’s 16.05% inflation by 145 basis points following a recent decision to keep the policy rate at 27%.
The Apex Bank came to the primary market with N700 billion Treasury bills offer size across standard tenors, including 91-day, 182-day and 364 day maturities. Details from the auction results showed that demand settled slightly above the total offers as investors began to seek higher returns on naira assets despite disinflation.
Total subscription came in at about N775 billion versus N700 billion offers floated at the main auction. The results showed rising appetite for duration as investors parked about 90% of their bids on Nigerian Treasury bills with 364 days maturity. The CBN opened N100 billion worth of 91 days bills for subscription, but the offer received underwhelming bids totalling N44.17 billion.
The CBN allotted N42.80 billion for the short-term instrument at the spot rate of 15.30%, the same as the previous auction. Total demand for 182 days Nigerian Treasury bills settled at N33.38 billion as against N150 billion that the authority pushed out for subscription. The CBN raised N30.36 billion from 182 days bills allotted to investors at the spot rate of 15.50%, the same as the previous auction.
Investors staked N697.29 billion on N450 billion in 364-day Treasury bills that was offered for subscription. The CBN raised N636.46 billion from the longest tenor at the spot rate of 17.50%, up from 16.04% at the previous auction.
-
News3 days agoNigeria to officially tag Kidnapping as Act of Terrorism as bill passes 2nd reading in Senate
-
News3 days agoNigeria champions African-Arab trade to boost agribusiness, industrial growth
-
News3 days agoFG’s plan to tax digital currencies may push traders to into underground financing—stakeholders
-
Finance1 week agoAfreximbank successfully closed its second Samurai Bond transactions, raising JPY 81.8bn or $527m
-
Economy3 days agoMAN cries out some operators at FTZs abusing system to detriment of local manufacturers
-
News1 week agoFG launches fresh offensive against Trans-border crimes, irregular migration, ECOWAS biometric identity Card
-
News3 days agoEU to support Nigeria’s war against insecurity
-
Uncategorized3 days agoDeveloping Countries’ Debt Outflows Hit 50-Year High During 2022-2024—WBG