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World Bank projects $90 for 2024 oil price as oil falls over 3%
The World Bank said on Monday it expected global oil prices to average $90 a barrel in the fourth quarter and fall to an average of $81 in 2023 as slowing growth eases demand, but warned that an escalation of the latest Middle East conflict could spike prices significantly higher. Meanwhile Oil slipped more than 3% on Monday with U.S. crude oil futures falling more than $3 a barrel as fears eased about the Israel-Hamas war disrupting supply from the region and as investors grew cautious ahead of this week’s U.S. Federal Reserve meeting. Brent crude futures fell $2.90, or 3.21%, to $87.58 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was down $3.14, or 3.67%, at $82.40. Crude had jumped 3% on Friday after Israel stepped up ground incursions into Gaza, stoking worries the conflict could expand in a region that accounts for a third of global oil output. However, that concern was fading on Monday, analysts said.
“The war premium has come out of the market,” said Phil Flynn, analyst at Price Futures Group. “It’s a situation where over the weekend the war seemed to intensify, but there seems to be no disruption to supply.” Israeli troops and tanks attacked Gaza’s main northern city from the east and west on Monday, three days after it began ground operations in the Palestinian enclave. “There is a propensity for market users in all their guises to have at least some oil length going into the weekends and when the fear of conflict spread shows no validation come the early hours of Monday mornings’ openings, that fear hedge is ordinarily unwound,” said John Evans of oil broker PVM.
The World Bank’s latest Commodity Markets Outlook report noted that oil prices have risen only about 6% since the start of the Israel-Hamas war, while prices of agricultural commodities, most metals and other commodities “have barely budged.” The report outlines three risk scenarios based on historical episodes involving regional conflicts since the 1970s, with increasing severity and consequences. A “small disruption” scenario equivalent to the reduction in oil output seen during the Libyan civil war in 2011 of about 500,000 to 2 million barrels per day (bpd) would drive oil prices up to a range of $93 to $102 a barrel in the fourth quarter, the bank said. A “medium disruption” scenario – roughly equivalent to the Iraq war in 2003 – would cut global oil supplies by 3 million to 5 million bpd, pushing prices to between $109 and $121 per barrel. The World Bank’s “large disruption” scenario approximates the impact of the 1973 Arab oil embargo, shrinking the global oil supply by 6 million to 8 million bpd.
This would initially drive up prices to $140 to $157 a barrel, a jump of up to 75%. “Higher oil prices, if sustained, inevitably mean higher food prices,” said Ayhan Kose, the World Bank’s Deputy Chief Economist. “If a severe oil-price shock materialises, it would push up food price inflation that has already been elevated in many developing countries.” The World Bank report said that China’s oil demand was surprisingly resilient given strains in the country’s real estate sector, rising 12% in the first nine months of 2023 over the same period of 2022. Oil production and exports from Russia have been relatively stable this year despite Western-imposed embargoes on Russian crude to punish Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine, the World Bank said. Russia’s exports to the European Union, the U.S., Britain and other Western countries fell by 53 percentage points between 2021 and 2023, but these have been largely replaced with increased exports to China, India and Turkey – up 40 percentage points over the same period. “The price cap on Russian crude oil introduced in late 2022 appears increasingly unenforceable given the recent spike in Urals prices,” the World Bank said, referring to the benchmark Russian crude, currently quoted in the mid-$70s per barrel range, well above the G7-led $60 price cap for Russian crude. The cap aims to deny buyers of Russian crude the use of Western-supplied services, including shipping and insurance, unless cargoes are sold at or below the capped price. It seems that by putting together a “shadow fleet” (of tankers), Russia has been able to trade outside of the cap; the official Urals benchmark recently breached the cap for more than three months, averaging $80 per barrel in August,” the report said.
If the Israel-Hamas conflict escalates, policymakers in developing countries will need to take steps to manage a potential increase in headline inflation, the World Bank said. It added that governments should avoid trade restrictions such as export bans on food and fertilizer because they can often intensify price volatility and heighten food insecurity. “Despite an escalation in the Hamas-Israel war, the ground invasion was widely expected,” added CMC Markets analyst Tina Teng. “The weekend play out signals no further expansion into a wider regional war, which caused a retreat in oil prices.” Investors are also focused on the outcome of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting as well as on what earnings from the likes of tech giant Apple Inc might indicate regarding the prospects for an economic slowdown. The Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged, while the central banks of Britain and Japan are also set to review their policies this week. Meanwhile, German inflation eased in October, pointing to a substantial cooling in headline inflation in the euro zone. China reports its October manufacturing and services PMIs this week, with investors looking out for more signs that the economy of the world’s top crude importer is stabilising.
A new technology transfer agreement between the Nigeria–China Strategic Partnership (NCSP) and the Presidential Implementation Committee on Technology Transfer (PICTT) is expected to open more job opportunities, improve local skills, and expand access to advanced technology for ordinary Nigerians.
In a press statement reaching Vanguard on Friday, the MoU aims to strengthen industrial development, support local content, and create clearer pathways for Nigerians to benefit from China’s growing investments in the country.
PICTT Chairman, Dr Dahiru Mohammed, said the partnership will immediately begin coordinated programmes that support local participation in infrastructure and industrial projects.
Special Adviser to the President on Industry, Trade and Investment, Mr John Uwajumogu, said the deal will help attract high value investments that can stimulate job creation and strengthen Nigeria’s economy.
NCSP Head of International Relations, Ms Judy Melifonwu, highlighted that Nigerians stand to gain from expanded STEM scholarships, technical training, access to modern technology, and collaboration across key sectors including steel, agriculture, automobile parks, and cultural industries.
The NCSP Director-General reaffirmed the organisation’s commitment to measurable results, noting that the partnership with PICTT will prioritise initiatives that deliver direct national impact.
The MoU signals a new phase of Nigeria–China cooperation focused on practical delivery, local content, and opportunities that improve everyday livelihoods.
EU regulators launched an antitrust investigation into Meta Platforms on Thursday over its rollout of artificial intelligence features in its WhatsApp messenger that would block rivals, hardening Europe’s already tough stance on Big Tech. The move, reported earlier by Reuters and the Financial Times, is the latest action by European Union regulators against large technology firms such as Amazon and Alphabet’s Google as the bloc seeks to balance support for the sector with efforts to curb its expanding influence.
Europe’s tough stance – a marked contrast to more lenient U.S. regulation – has sparked an industry pushback, particularly by U.S. tech titans, and led to criticism from the administration of U. S. President Donald Trump. The European Commission said that the investigation will look into Meta’s new policy that would limit other AI providers’ access to WhatsApp, a potential boost for its own Meta AI system integrated into the platform earlier this year.
EU antitrust chief Teresa Ribera said the move was to prevent dominant firms from “abusing their power to crowd out innovative competitors”. She added interim measures could be imposed to block Meta’s new WhatsApp AI policy rollout. “AI markets are booming in Europe and beyond,” she said. This is why we are investigating if Meta’s new policy might be illegal under competition rules, and whether we should act quickly to prevent any possible irreparable harm to competition in the AI space.”
A WhatsApp spokesperson called the claims “baseless”, adding that the emergence of chatbots on its platforms had put a “strain on our systems that they were not designed to support”, a reference to AI systems from other providers. “Still, the AI space is highly competitive and people have access to the services of their choice in any number of ways, including app stores, search engines, email services, partnership integrations, and operating systems.” The EU was the first in the world to establish a comprehensive legal framework for AI, setting out guardrails for AI systems and rules for certain high-risk applications in the AI Act.
Meta AI, a chatbot and virtual assistant, has been built into WhatsApp’s interface across European markets since March. The Commission said a new policy fully applicable from January 15, 2026, may block competing AI providers from reaching customers via the platform. Ribera said the probe came on the back of complaints from small AI developers about the WhatsApp policy. The Interaction Company of California, which has developed AI assistant Poke.com, has taken its grievance to the EU competition enforcer. Spanish AI startup Luzia has also talked to the Commission, a person with knowledge of the matter said.
Marvin von Hagen, co-founder and CEO of The Interaction Company of California, said if Meta was allowed to roll out its new policy, “millions of European consumers will be deprived of the possibility of enjoying new and innovative AI assistants”. Meta also risks a fine of as much as 10% of its global annual turnover if found guilty of breaching EU antitrust rules.
Italy’s antitrust watchdog opened a parallel investigation in July into allegations that Meta leveraged its market power by integrating an AI tool into WhatsApp, expanding the probe in November to examine whether Meta further abused its dominance by blocking rival AI chatbots from the messaging platform. The antitrust probe is a more traditional means of investigation than the EU’s Digital Markets Act, the bloc’s landmark legislation currently used to scrutinize Amazon’s and Microsoft’s cloud services for potential curbs. Reuters
The spouses and children of billionaires inherited more wealth in 2025 than in any previous year since reporting began in 2015, according to UBS’s Billionaire Ambitions Report published on Thursday. In the 12 months to April, 91 people became billionaires through inheritance, collectively receiving $298 billion, up more than a third from 2024, the Swiss bank said. “These heirs are proof of a multi-year wealth transfer that’s intensifying,” UBS executive Benjamin Cavalli said.
The report is based on a survey of some of UBS’s super-rich clients and a database that tracks the wealth of billionaires across 47 markets in all world regions. At least $5.9 trillion will be inherited by billionaire children over the next 15 years, the bank calculates.
Most of this inheritance growth is set to take place in the United States, with India, France, Germany and Switzerland next on the list, UBS estimated. However, billionaires are highly mobile, especially younger ones, which could change that picture, it added. The search for a better quality of life, geopolitical concerns and tax considerations are driving decisions to relocate, according to the report.
In Switzerland, where $206 billion will be inherited over the next 15 years according to the bank, voters on Sunday overwhelmingly rejected 50 per cent tax on inherited fortunes of $62 million or more, after critics said it could trigger an exodus of wealthy people.
Switzerland, the UAE, the U.S. and Singapore are among billionaires’ preferred destinations, UBS’s Cavalli said. “In Switzerland, Sunday’s vote may have helped to increase the country’s appeal again,” he said. Reuters
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