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Hunger in Nigeria ravages citizens as galloping inflation hits 29.9%  

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Nigeria’s galloping inflation hits 29.90% in January 2024 National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in its latest inflation report said Nigeria’s galloping inflation rate for January 2024 has surged to 29.90%, marking a significant increase from the 28.92% recorded in the preceding month. NBS data show a galloping uptick in the headline inflation rate for January 2024 by 0.98% points when compared with December 2023’s figures. According to the NBS, a year-on-year comparison, the inflation rate for January 2023 stood at 21.82%, showcasing a considerable leap of 8.08% points by January 2024, underscoring an escalated headline inflation rate over the same period in the preceding year. 

A closer examination on a month-on-month basis illustrates that the headline inflation rate for January 2024 ascended to 2.64%, outpacing the 2.29% observed in December 2023 by 0.35% points. This increment elucidates a heightened rise in the average price level for January 2024 relative to the increase noted in December 2023, highlighting the growing inflationary pressures within the nation’s economy. The NBS reports a significant surge in the food inflation rate for January 2024, reaching a year-on-year high of 35.41%. This marks a substantial 11.10%-point increase from the 24.32% observed in January 2023, highlighting a pronounced rise in the cost of food items. The key drivers of this inflationary pressure include notable price hikes in essential food commodities such as bread and cereals, potatoes, yams and other tubers, oils and fats, fish, meat, fruits, as well as coffee, tea, and cocoa. In a more granular month-on-month analysis, the food inflation rate for January 2024 escalated to 3.21%, which is 0.49% points above the rate recorded in December 2023 (2.72%). This increase can be attributed to the accelerated rate of price rises in potatoes, yams and other tubers, bread and cereals, fish, meat, tobacco, and vegetables. 

According to NBS the average annual rate of food inflation for the twelve months ending in January 2024 surged to 28.91%, representing a significant 7.38%-point increase from the 21.53% annual rate of change recorded in January 2023. This data underscores the escalating cost pressures within the food sector, affecting the overall inflationary landscape and impacting the cost of living for households across Nigeria.  The NBS delineates a marked increase in the Core inflation rate for January 2024, which ascended to 23.59% on a year-on-year basis. This represents a significant uplift of 4.71% points from the 18.88% noted in January 2023. The Core inflation metric, known for excluding the prices of volatile agricultural produce and energy, offers a glimpse into the underlying inflationary trends minus the external price shocks from these sectors. The inflationary pressures within this core category were most pronounced in the costs associated with passenger transport by road, medical services, actual and imputed rentals for housing, pharmaceutical products, accommodation services, and passenger transport by air, among others. These areas witnessed the highest price increases, reflecting the broad-based nature of inflationary pressures beyond food and energy sectors. 

On a month-on-month basis, the Core Inflation rate for January 2024 was 2.24%, marking an increase from the 1.82% observed in December 2023 by 0.42% points. This increment signifies a continued acceleration in the price levels of non-volatile and non-energy items as the month progressed. Furthermore, the analysis over a 12-month period ending in January 2024 reveals an average annual inflation rate of 21.15% for the core index, up by 4.74% points from the 16.41% recorded in January 2023. This uptrend underscores a sustained rise in the core inflation rate, highlighting persistent inflationary pressures in the segments of the economy unaffected by agricultural or energy price volatilities. The NBS data show a significant year-on-year upsurge in the urban inflation rate for January 2024, which stood at 31.95%. This rate is a considerable 9.40% points increase from the 22.55% recorded in January 2023, pointing to a stark acceleration in inflation within urban centres. The urban inflation rate in January 2024 escalated to 2.72%, marking a 0.30%-point rise over December 2023’s rate of 2.42%. This increment reflects a quicker pace of price increases in urban areas at the start of the year. 

According to NBS the corresponding twelve-month average for the urban inflation rate as of January 2024 was 27.01%, showcasing a 7.10%-point jump from the 19.91% reported in January 2023. This data signifies a notable elevation in the average price levels within urban locales over a year, underscoring the intensifying inflationary pressures that urban residents are grappling with. In rural inflation dynamics, the NBS report illuminates that January 2024 witnessed a rural inflation rate of 28.10% on a year-on-year basis. This figure marks a 6.97 percentage point ascent from the 21.13% noted in January 2023, signalling a substantial inflationary uptrend in rural locales over the period. On a month-on-month analysis, the rural inflation rate for January 2024 edged up to 2.57%, representing a 0.40 percentage point increase from the 2.17% registered in December 2023. This uptick underscores a more rapid inflationary pace in rural areas at the onset of the year. Furthermore, the twelve-month average rural inflation rate as of January 2024 stood at 23.85%, which is 5.01 percentage points higher than the 18.84% documented in January 2023. This statistic reflects a pronounced escalation in the average price levels within rural communities over the year, highlighting the sustained inflationary pressures that increasingly impact the cost of living in these areas. 

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Nigeria champions African-Arab trade to boost agribusiness, industrial growth

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The Arab Africa Trade Bridges (AATB) Program and the Federal Republic of Nigeria formalized a partnership with the signing of the AATB Membership Agreement, officially welcoming Nigeria as the Program’s newest member country. The signing ceremony took place in Abuja on the sidelines of the 5th AATB Board of Governors Meeting, hosted by the Federal Government of Nigeria.

The Membership Agreement was signed by Eng. Adeeb Y. Al Aama, the CEO of the International Islamic Trade Finance Corporation (ITFC) and AATB Program Secretary General, and H.E. Mr. Wale Edun, Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Federal Republic of Nigeria. The Agreement will provide a strategic and operational framework to support Nigeria’s efforts in trade competitiveness, promote export diversification, strengthen priority value chains, and advance capacity-building efforts in line with national development priorities. Areas of collaboration will include trade promotion, agribusiness modernization, SME development, businessmen missions, trade facilitation, logistics efficiency, and digital trade readiness.

The Honourable Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr. Wale Edun, called for deeper trade collaboration between African and Arab nations, stressing the importance of value-added Agribusiness and industrial partnerships for regional growth. Speaking in Abuja at the Agribusiness Matchmaking Forum ahead of the AATB Board of Governors Meeting, the Minister said the shifting global economy makes it essential for African and Arab nations to rely more on regional cooperation, investment and shared markets.

He highlighted projections showing Arab-Africa trade could grow by more than US$37 billion in the next three years and urged partners to prioritize value addition rather than raw commodity exports. He noted that Nigeria’s growing industrial base and upcoming National Single Window reforms will support efficiency, investment and private-sector expansion.

“This is a moment to turn opportunity into action”, he said. “By working together, we can build stronger value chains, create jobs and support prosperity across our regions”, Edun emphasized. “As African and Arab nations embark on this journey of deeper trade collaboration, the potential for growth and development is vast. With a shared vision and commitment to value-added partnerships, we can unlock new opportunities, drive economic growth, and create a brighter future for our people.”

Speaking during the event, Eng. Adeeb Y. Al Aama, Chief Executive Officer of ITFC and Secretary General of the AATB Program, stated: “We are pleased to welcome Nigeria to be part of the AATB Program. Nigeria stands as one of Africa’s most dynamic and resilient economies in Africa, with a rapidly expanding private sector and strong potential across agribusiness, energy, manufacturing, and digital industries. Through this Membership Agreement, we look forward to collaborating closely with Nigerian institutions to strengthen value chains, expand regional market access, enhance trade finance and investment opportunities, and support the country’s development priorities.”

The signing of this Agreement underscores AATB’s continued engagement with African countries and its evolving portfolio of programs supporting trade and investment. In recent years, AATB has worked on initiatives across agribusiness, textiles, logistics, digital trade, export readiness under the AfCFTA framework, and other regional initiatives such as the Common African Agro-Parks (CAAPs) Programme.

With Nigeria’s accession, the AATB Program extends it’s presence in the region and adds a key partner working toward advancing trade-led development and fostering inclusive economic growth.

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FEC approves 2026–2028 MTEF, projects N34.33trn revenue 

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Federal Executive Council (FEC) has approved the 2026–2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF), a key fiscal document that outlines Nigeria’s revenue expectations, macroeconomic assumptions, and spending priorities for the next three years. The approval followed Wednesday’s FEC meeting presided over by President Bola Tinubu at the State House, Abuja. The Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Senator Atiku Bagudu made this known after the meeting.

The Minister said the Federal Government is projecting a total revenue inflow of N34.33 trillion in 2026, including N4.98 trillion expected from government-owned enterprises. Bagudu said that the projected revenue is N6.55 trillion lower than earlier estimates, adding that federal allocations are expected to drop by about N9.4 trillion, representing a 16% decline compared to the 2025 budget.

He said that statutory transfers are expected to amount to about N3 trillion within the same fiscal year. On macroeconomic assumptions, FEC adopted an oil production benchmark of 2.6 million barrels per day (mbpd) for 2026, although a more conservative 1.8 mbpd will be used for budgeting purposes. An oil price benchmark of $64 per barrel and an exchange rate of N1,512 per dollar were also approved.

Bagudu said the exchange rate assumption reflects projections tied to economic and political developments ahead of the 2027 general elections. He said the exchange rate assumption took into account the fiscal outlook ahead of the 2027 general elections.

The minister said that all the parameters were based on macroeconomic analysis by the Budget Office and other relevant agencies. Bagudu said FEC also reviewed comments from cabinet members before approving the Medium-Term Fiscal Expenditure Ceiling (MFTEC), which sets expenditure limits. Earlier, the Senate approved the external borrowing plan of $21.5 billion presented by President Tinubu for consideration The loans, according to the Senate, were part of the MTEF and Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP) for the 2025 budget.

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CBN hikes interest on treasury Bills above inflation rate

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The spot rate on Nigerian Treasury bills has been increased by 146 basis points by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) following tight subscription levels at the main auction on Wednesday. The spot rate on Treasury bills with one-year maturity has now surpassed Nigeria’s 16.05% inflation by 145 basis points following a recent decision to keep the policy rate at 27%. 

The Apex Bank came to the primary market with N700 billion Treasury bills offer size across standard tenors, including 91-day, 182-day and 364 day maturities. Details from the auction results showed that demand settled slightly above the total offers as investors began to seek higher returns on naira assets despite disinflation.

Total subscription came in at about N775 billion versus N700 billion offers floated at the main auction. The results showed rising appetite for duration as investors parked about 90% of their bids on Nigerian Treasury bills with 364 days maturity. The CBN opened N100 billion worth of 91 days bills for subscription, but the offer received underwhelming bids totalling N44.17 billion.

The CBN allotted N42.80 billion for the short-term instrument at the spot rate of 15.30%, the same as the previous auction. Total demand for 182 days Nigerian Treasury bills settled at N33.38 billion as against N150 billion that the authority pushed out for subscription. The CBN raised N30.36 billion from 182 days bills allotted to investors at the spot rate of 15.50%, the same as the previous auction.

Investors staked N697.29 billion on N450 billion in 364-day Treasury bills that was offered for subscription. The CBN raised N636.46 billion from the longest tenor at the spot rate of 17.50%, up from 16.04% at the previous auction.

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