Economy
Economic Hardship Tinubu risk mass rebellion—Lukman
Former National Vice Chairman, Northwest, of the ruling All Progressives Congress APC, Salihu Moh. Lukman has warned that except urgent remedial measures are taken to reverse the growing cost of living in the country, the President Bola Tinubu-led administration risks mass rebellion since the president is increasingly becoming very unpopular. Lukman sounded the warning in an open letter made available to journalists in Abuja and titled ‘APC and Question of Liability: Open Letter to APC Leaders’. He said although, the government is taking some measures, which include the directive to immediately release 42,000 metric tons of assorted grains from the strategic reserves to Nigerians and the decision to setup commodity boards to regulate prices of food items in the country, the bigger challenge is the issue of guaranteeing local production in the long run.
According to him, a number of these issues takes Nigeria back to the whole debate around restructuring, which is about adopting a holistic, not piecemeal, approach to reforming the Nigerian economy. He said part of the problem created today, is that instead of coming up with a comprehensive strategy with clear timelines, “we are having isolated knee jerk initiatives. We must appeal to our leaders, especially President Tinubu to stop behaving in the mode of repressive leaders. Being leaders elected on the platform of the APC, as true democrats, they should allow structures of the APC to function based on which members and leaders of the APC can have a say in the policy directions of the government. Inability of members to influence actions of the former President Buhari’s government is responsible for whatever could be adjudged as the failure of that government. So long as the government of President Asiwaju Tinubu adopts the old framework of dictating to the party, it has made itself vulnerable to repeat all the mistakes and failings of former President Buhari.
“Given this reality, it is painful to admit that both the APC as a party and the government of President Asiwaju Tinubu are becoming increasingly unpopular with Nigerians. No one should be deceived that given the way we are becoming more and more unpopular; we are faced with the risk of rebellion by ordinary Nigerians. The truth is that given the fact that political opposition to APC is weak, and organisations of civil society in the country are also weak, the capacity to provide the needed leadership to the opposition against APC and President Asiwaju Tinubu may be nebulous and desperate, which could become a threat to democracy. To avert such danger, it is important that our leaders return to their old mode of acting as visionary politicians and initiate deeply more substantive political reforms in the country to reposition the APC and return it to its founding vision of becoming a progressive political.
“At the same time, we need a different President Tinubu to show up who is a democrat and above all a progressive politician who should have high tolerance level when party members and citizens express disagreements to his decisions. We want a President Tinubu who will be open to engagement by party members and Nigerians. Once the disposition of President Tinubu is limited to accommodating only views that agree to his decisions, it simply means that all hopes are dashed. Leaders of APC must therefore refrain from acts that can only strengthen the hands of President Asiwaju Tinubu to dash the hopes of Nigerians. The least that should happen is that if leaders of the APC have retreated their commitments to making APC a progressive party, they should openly make that declaration. It is my prayer that this is not the case. However, as it is often said, the taste of the pudding is in the eating. Will President Tinubu take the needed steps to review the policy directions of his government such that comprehensive policy framework is put in place, which should include the issue of removal of subsidy and exchange rate and not piecemeal strategy? Will the government accept to subordinate itself to the party based on which it accepts to work with decisions of the party, or will it continue to relate with party leaders as its appointees? These are issues that will define the kind of legacy President Asiwaju Tinubu want to bequeath to Nigerians”, he added.
Lukman added that no amount of blaming past leaders will save the Tinubu administration from joining the list of bad leaders, except honest political reforms to return APC to its founding vision are undertaken. On the recent blaming of former President Muhammadu Buhari for being responsible for Nigeria’s current state, Lukman said Senator Adams Oshiomhole who made the criticism needs to be reminded of some of the positions he eloquently presented President of the Nigeria Labour Congress NLC regarding the issue of removal of fuel subsidy. He said it is on record that Comrade Oshiomhole provided the leadership to oppose withdrawal of subsidy on petroleum products based on the demand that before it is done government must guarantee local production of refined petroleum products. “We made recommendation that cover short, medium, and long term, which were contained in submissions we made to the Federal Government when Comrade Oshiomhole was NLC President. For instance, as a short-term recommendation, we proposed strategic innovative arrangements with neighbouring countries such as Cote d’Ivoire so that storage facilities in those countries with refining capacities could be hired and NNPC supply crude and pay all the refining charges and collect the products for use in our domestic market.
“As medium-term recommendations, issues of re-firing and re-streaming all Nigerian refineries were proposed. In the long run, allowing private investors to setup refineries were proposed. All these were as far back as 2000. At the time President Asiwaju Tinubu took over in May 2023, we were told local refineries will resume local production in December 2023. Good enough, the Dangote refinery had already been commissioned and was being projected to commence supply of refined products to Nigerians in 2024. There is clear national consensus that government should remove subsidy. The big challenge is aligning the removal of subsidy to correspond to clear timelines when local production of refined products can be guaranteed. Once this is not done, the problems of arbitrarily increases in the prices of refined petroleum products based on cost of importation will be the reality. Compounded by the policy of floating exchange rate of the Naira, it is only natural given our dependence on importation, the value of our currency will be on the decline, which will add to the inflationary pressure on the economy. As things are, these are realities that are producing unbearable circumstances for citizens. As a party member, my expectation is that we can work collectively to strengthen the capacity of President Asiwaju Tinubu to initiate measures to arrest the current crash in the economy. It borders on whether we want to take responsibility and decisively initiate sustainable strategy to resolve the challenges permanently”, Lukman said.
The Arab Africa Trade Bridges (AATB) Program and the Federal Republic of Nigeria formalized a partnership with the signing of the AATB Membership Agreement, officially welcoming Nigeria as the Program’s newest member country. The signing ceremony took place in Abuja on the sidelines of the 5th AATB Board of Governors Meeting, hosted by the Federal Government of Nigeria.
The Membership Agreement was signed by Eng. Adeeb Y. Al Aama, the CEO of the International Islamic Trade Finance Corporation (ITFC) and AATB Program Secretary General, and H.E. Mr. Wale Edun, Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Federal Republic of Nigeria. The Agreement will provide a strategic and operational framework to support Nigeria’s efforts in trade competitiveness, promote export diversification, strengthen priority value chains, and advance capacity-building efforts in line with national development priorities. Areas of collaboration will include trade promotion, agribusiness modernization, SME development, businessmen missions, trade facilitation, logistics efficiency, and digital trade readiness.
The Honourable Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr. Wale Edun, called for deeper trade collaboration between African and Arab nations, stressing the importance of value-added Agribusiness and industrial partnerships for regional growth. Speaking in Abuja at the Agribusiness Matchmaking Forum ahead of the AATB Board of Governors Meeting, the Minister said the shifting global economy makes it essential for African and Arab nations to rely more on regional cooperation, investment and shared markets.
He highlighted projections showing Arab-Africa trade could grow by more than US$37 billion in the next three years and urged partners to prioritize value addition rather than raw commodity exports. He noted that Nigeria’s growing industrial base and upcoming National Single Window reforms will support efficiency, investment and private-sector expansion.
“This is a moment to turn opportunity into action”, he said. “By working together, we can build stronger value chains, create jobs and support prosperity across our regions”, Edun emphasized. “As African and Arab nations embark on this journey of deeper trade collaboration, the potential for growth and development is vast. With a shared vision and commitment to value-added partnerships, we can unlock new opportunities, drive economic growth, and create a brighter future for our people.”
Speaking during the event, Eng. Adeeb Y. Al Aama, Chief Executive Officer of ITFC and Secretary General of the AATB Program, stated: “We are pleased to welcome Nigeria to be part of the AATB Program. Nigeria stands as one of Africa’s most dynamic and resilient economies in Africa, with a rapidly expanding private sector and strong potential across agribusiness, energy, manufacturing, and digital industries. Through this Membership Agreement, we look forward to collaborating closely with Nigerian institutions to strengthen value chains, expand regional market access, enhance trade finance and investment opportunities, and support the country’s development priorities.”
The signing of this Agreement underscores AATB’s continued engagement with African countries and its evolving portfolio of programs supporting trade and investment. In recent years, AATB has worked on initiatives across agribusiness, textiles, logistics, digital trade, export readiness under the AfCFTA framework, and other regional initiatives such as the Common African Agro-Parks (CAAPs) Programme.
With Nigeria’s accession, the AATB Program extends it’s presence in the region and adds a key partner working toward advancing trade-led development and fostering inclusive economic growth.
Federal Executive Council (FEC) has approved the 2026–2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF), a key fiscal document that outlines Nigeria’s revenue expectations, macroeconomic assumptions, and spending priorities for the next three years. The approval followed Wednesday’s FEC meeting presided over by President Bola Tinubu at the State House, Abuja. The Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Senator Atiku Bagudu made this known after the meeting.
The Minister said the Federal Government is projecting a total revenue inflow of N34.33 trillion in 2026, including N4.98 trillion expected from government-owned enterprises. Bagudu said that the projected revenue is N6.55 trillion lower than earlier estimates, adding that federal allocations are expected to drop by about N9.4 trillion, representing a 16% decline compared to the 2025 budget.
He said that statutory transfers are expected to amount to about N3 trillion within the same fiscal year. On macroeconomic assumptions, FEC adopted an oil production benchmark of 2.6 million barrels per day (mbpd) for 2026, although a more conservative 1.8 mbpd will be used for budgeting purposes. An oil price benchmark of $64 per barrel and an exchange rate of N1,512 per dollar were also approved.
Bagudu said the exchange rate assumption reflects projections tied to economic and political developments ahead of the 2027 general elections. He said the exchange rate assumption took into account the fiscal outlook ahead of the 2027 general elections.
The minister said that all the parameters were based on macroeconomic analysis by the Budget Office and other relevant agencies. Bagudu said FEC also reviewed comments from cabinet members before approving the Medium-Term Fiscal Expenditure Ceiling (MFTEC), which sets expenditure limits. Earlier, the Senate approved the external borrowing plan of $21.5 billion presented by President Tinubu for consideration The loans, according to the Senate, were part of the MTEF and Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP) for the 2025 budget.
The spot rate on Nigerian Treasury bills has been increased by 146 basis points by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) following tight subscription levels at the main auction on Wednesday. The spot rate on Treasury bills with one-year maturity has now surpassed Nigeria’s 16.05% inflation by 145 basis points following a recent decision to keep the policy rate at 27%.
The Apex Bank came to the primary market with N700 billion Treasury bills offer size across standard tenors, including 91-day, 182-day and 364 day maturities. Details from the auction results showed that demand settled slightly above the total offers as investors began to seek higher returns on naira assets despite disinflation.
Total subscription came in at about N775 billion versus N700 billion offers floated at the main auction. The results showed rising appetite for duration as investors parked about 90% of their bids on Nigerian Treasury bills with 364 days maturity. The CBN opened N100 billion worth of 91 days bills for subscription, but the offer received underwhelming bids totalling N44.17 billion.
The CBN allotted N42.80 billion for the short-term instrument at the spot rate of 15.30%, the same as the previous auction. Total demand for 182 days Nigerian Treasury bills settled at N33.38 billion as against N150 billion that the authority pushed out for subscription. The CBN raised N30.36 billion from 182 days bills allotted to investors at the spot rate of 15.50%, the same as the previous auction.
Investors staked N697.29 billion on N450 billion in 364-day Treasury bills that was offered for subscription. The CBN raised N636.46 billion from the longest tenor at the spot rate of 17.50%, up from 16.04% at the previous auction.
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