Economy
Nigeria’s GDP records 2.74% in 2023, slowest growth rate since 2020
Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 2.74% in 2023, a slight drop from the 3.10% growth recorded in 2022. According to a report signed by Prince Adeyemi Adeniran, Statistician-General National Bureau of Statistics, the figure was the slowest growth rate since 2020 when the economy recovered from recession. The services sector was the major driver of the economy in 2023 growing by 3.98 per cent, but contributed 56.55% to the total GDP. He said that agriculture, which used to be the mainstay of the economy, grew from 2.05 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2022 to 2.10 per cent in the same quarter of 2023. He said “Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 3.46% (year-on-year) in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2023. This growth rate is lower than the 3.52% recorded in the fourth quarter of 2022 and higher than the third quarter of 2023 growth of 2.54%. The performance of the GDP in the fourth quarter of 2023 was driven mainly by the Services sector, which recorded a growth of 3.98% and contributed 56.55% to the aggregate GDP. The agriculture sector grew by 2.10%, from the growth of 2.05% recorded in the fourth quarter of 2022. The growth of the industry sector was 3.86%, an improvement from -0.94% recorded in the fourth quarter of 2022. In terms of share of the GDP, industry, and the services sectors contributed more to the aggregate GDP in the fourth quarter of 2023 compared to the fourth quarter of 2022. On an annual basis, GDP grew by 2.74% in 2023 relative to 3.10% in 2022.
“In the quarter under review, aggregate GDP stood at N65,908,258.59 million in nominal terms. This performance is higher when compared to the fourth quarter of 2022 which recorded aggregate GDP of N56,757,889.95 million, indicating a year-on-year nominal growth of 16.12%. For better clarity, the Nigerian economy has been classified broadly into the oil and non-oil sectors. The nation in the fourth quarter of 2023 recorded an average daily oil production of 1.55 million barrels\ per day (mbpd), higher than the daily average production of 1.34mbpd recorded in the same quarter of 2022 by 0.21mbpd and higher than the third quarter of 2023 production volume of 1.45 mbpd by 0.10mbpd.
The real growth of the oil sector was 12.11% (year-on-year) in Q4 2023, indicating an increase of 25.50% points relative to the rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2022 (-13.38%). Growth also increased by 12.96% points when compared to Q3 2023 which was –0.85%. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the oil sector recorded a growth rate of -3.81% in Q4 2023. On an annual basis, the oil sector growth stood at -2.22% in 2023 compared to -19.22% in 2022. The Oil sector contributed 4.70% to the total real GDP in Q4 2023, up from the figure recorded in the corresponding period of 2022 and down from the preceding quarter, where it contributed 4.34% and 5.48% respectively.
“The non-oil sector grew by 3.07% in real terms during the reference quarter (Q4 2023). This rate was lower by 1.37% points compared to the rate recorded in the same quarter of 2022 and 0.32% points higher than the third quarter of 2023. This sector was driven in the fourth quarter of 2023 mainly by Financial and Insurance (Financial Institutions); Information and Communication (Telecommunication); Agriculture (Crop production); Trade; Construction; Manufacturing (Food, Beverage, and Tobacco) and Real Estate, accounting for positive GDP growth. On an annual basis, the non-oil sector growth in 2023 stood at 3.04% relative to 4.84% recorded in 2022. In real terms, the non-oil sector contributed 95.30% to the nation’s GDP in the fourth quarter of 2023, lower than the share recorded in the fourth quarter of 2022 which was 95.66% and higher than the third quarter of 2023 recorded as 94.52%.
“The Mining & Quarrying sector consists of Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas, Coal Mining, Metal ore and Quarrying and other Minerals sub-activities. This sector grew nominally by 15.07%(year-on-year) in Q4 2023. Metal Ores exhibited the highest growth rate of all the sub-activities at 27.14%, followed by Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas activity at 22.55%. Crude Petroleum and Natural gas was the main contributor to the sector with a weight of 70.17% in Q4 2023. Comparing Q4 2023’s rate of growth relative to Q4 2022 and Q3 2023 growth rates, there was an increase of 16.14% points and a decrease of 16.83% points respectively. The annual growth of the sector stood at 8.92% in 2023 relative to 27.11% in 2022. The Mining & Quarrying sector contributed 4.47% to the overall GDP in the fourth quarter of 2023, lower than the contributions recorded in 2022 fourth quarter at 4.51% and lower than the previous quarter at 8.32%.
In real terms, the Mining and Quarrying sector grew by 8.04% (year-on-year) in the fourth quarter of 2023. “Compared to the same quarter of 2022 and the third quarter of 2023, it was higher by 19.43% points and higher by 10.01% points respectively. Quarter- on- quarter, the growth rate recorded was -2.38% during the quarter. In addition, annual growth of the sector in 2023 was -2.84%, higher than -18.16% in 2022. The contribution of Mining and Quarrying to Real GDP in the quarter under review stood at 4.91%, higher than the rate of 4.71% recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2022 and lower than the 5.64% recorded in the third quarter of 2023. Four sub-activities make up the Agricultural sector: Crop Production, Livestock, Forestry and Fishing. The sector grew by 14.94% year-on-year in nominal terms in Q4 2023, showing a decrease of 3.74% points from the same quarter of 2022. Looking at the preceding quarter’s growth rate of 11.06%, there was an increase of 3.88% points. Crop Production remained the major driver of the sector. This is evident as it accounts for 90.03% of the overall nominal value of the sector in the fourth quarter of 2023. Quarter-on-quarter growth stood at 1.62% in the fourth quarter of 2023. Agriculture contributed 24.65% to nominal GDP in the fourth quarter of 2023. This figure was lower than the rate recorded in the fourth quarter of 2022 and lower than the third quarter of 2023 which recorded 24.90% and 26.36% respectively.
“The agricultural sector in the fourth quarter of 2023 grew by 2.10% (year-on-year) in real terms, an increase of 0.06% points from the corresponding period of 2022, and an increase of 0.81% points from the preceding quarter which recorded a growth rate of 1.30%. It grew on a quarter-on-quarter basis at -0.22%. On an annual basis, the agriculture sector grew by 1.13% in 2023, down from 1.88% in 2022. However, the sector contributed 26.11% to overall GDP in real terms in Q4 2023, lower than the contribution in the fourth quarter of 2022 and lower than the third quarter of 2023 which stood at 26.46% and 29.31% respectively. The Manufacturing sector is comprised of thirteen activities: Oil Refining; Cement; Food, Beverages and Tobacco; Textile, Apparel, and Footwear; Wood and Wood products; Pulp Paper and Paper products; Chemical and Pharmaceutical products; Non-metallic Products, Plastic and Rubber products; Electrical and Electronic; Basic Metal and Iron and Steel; Motor Vehicles and Assembly; and Other Manufacturing. Nominal GDP growth of the Manufacturing sector in the fourth quarter of 2023 was recorded at 38.06% (year-on-year), 29.20% points higher than the figure recorded in the corresponding period of 2022 (8.86%) and 1.47% points higher than the preceding quarter figure of 36.59%. Quarter-on-quarter, growth of the sector was recorded at 7.70% during the quarter. On an annual basis, the sector grew by 30.93% in 2023 compared to 6.93% in 2022.
The contribution of Manufacturing to Nominal GDP in the fourth quarter of 2023 was 16.04%, higher than the figure recorded in the corresponding period of 2022 at 13.49% and lower than the third quarter of 2023 at 16.18%. Real GDP growth in the manufacturing sector in the fourth quarter of 2023 was 1.38% (year-on-year), lower than the same quarter of 2022 and higher than the preceding quarter by 1.46% points and 0.90% points respectively. The growth rate of the sector on a quarter-on-quarter basis stood at 9.54%. On an annual basis, the sector grew by 1.40% in 2023, lower than 2.45% in 2022. The Real contribution to GDP in the 2023 fourth quarter was 8.23%, lower than the 8.40% recorded in the fourth quarter of 2022 and lower than the 8.42% recorded in the third quarter of 2023”.
The Arab Africa Trade Bridges (AATB) Program and the Federal Republic of Nigeria formalized a partnership with the signing of the AATB Membership Agreement, officially welcoming Nigeria as the Program’s newest member country. The signing ceremony took place in Abuja on the sidelines of the 5th AATB Board of Governors Meeting, hosted by the Federal Government of Nigeria.
The Membership Agreement was signed by Eng. Adeeb Y. Al Aama, the CEO of the International Islamic Trade Finance Corporation (ITFC) and AATB Program Secretary General, and H.E. Mr. Wale Edun, Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Federal Republic of Nigeria. The Agreement will provide a strategic and operational framework to support Nigeria’s efforts in trade competitiveness, promote export diversification, strengthen priority value chains, and advance capacity-building efforts in line with national development priorities. Areas of collaboration will include trade promotion, agribusiness modernization, SME development, businessmen missions, trade facilitation, logistics efficiency, and digital trade readiness.
The Honourable Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr. Wale Edun, called for deeper trade collaboration between African and Arab nations, stressing the importance of value-added Agribusiness and industrial partnerships for regional growth. Speaking in Abuja at the Agribusiness Matchmaking Forum ahead of the AATB Board of Governors Meeting, the Minister said the shifting global economy makes it essential for African and Arab nations to rely more on regional cooperation, investment and shared markets.
He highlighted projections showing Arab-Africa trade could grow by more than US$37 billion in the next three years and urged partners to prioritize value addition rather than raw commodity exports. He noted that Nigeria’s growing industrial base and upcoming National Single Window reforms will support efficiency, investment and private-sector expansion.
“This is a moment to turn opportunity into action”, he said. “By working together, we can build stronger value chains, create jobs and support prosperity across our regions”, Edun emphasized. “As African and Arab nations embark on this journey of deeper trade collaboration, the potential for growth and development is vast. With a shared vision and commitment to value-added partnerships, we can unlock new opportunities, drive economic growth, and create a brighter future for our people.”
Speaking during the event, Eng. Adeeb Y. Al Aama, Chief Executive Officer of ITFC and Secretary General of the AATB Program, stated: “We are pleased to welcome Nigeria to be part of the AATB Program. Nigeria stands as one of Africa’s most dynamic and resilient economies in Africa, with a rapidly expanding private sector and strong potential across agribusiness, energy, manufacturing, and digital industries. Through this Membership Agreement, we look forward to collaborating closely with Nigerian institutions to strengthen value chains, expand regional market access, enhance trade finance and investment opportunities, and support the country’s development priorities.”
The signing of this Agreement underscores AATB’s continued engagement with African countries and its evolving portfolio of programs supporting trade and investment. In recent years, AATB has worked on initiatives across agribusiness, textiles, logistics, digital trade, export readiness under the AfCFTA framework, and other regional initiatives such as the Common African Agro-Parks (CAAPs) Programme.
With Nigeria’s accession, the AATB Program extends it’s presence in the region and adds a key partner working toward advancing trade-led development and fostering inclusive economic growth.
Federal Executive Council (FEC) has approved the 2026–2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF), a key fiscal document that outlines Nigeria’s revenue expectations, macroeconomic assumptions, and spending priorities for the next three years. The approval followed Wednesday’s FEC meeting presided over by President Bola Tinubu at the State House, Abuja. The Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Senator Atiku Bagudu made this known after the meeting.
The Minister said the Federal Government is projecting a total revenue inflow of N34.33 trillion in 2026, including N4.98 trillion expected from government-owned enterprises. Bagudu said that the projected revenue is N6.55 trillion lower than earlier estimates, adding that federal allocations are expected to drop by about N9.4 trillion, representing a 16% decline compared to the 2025 budget.
He said that statutory transfers are expected to amount to about N3 trillion within the same fiscal year. On macroeconomic assumptions, FEC adopted an oil production benchmark of 2.6 million barrels per day (mbpd) for 2026, although a more conservative 1.8 mbpd will be used for budgeting purposes. An oil price benchmark of $64 per barrel and an exchange rate of N1,512 per dollar were also approved.
Bagudu said the exchange rate assumption reflects projections tied to economic and political developments ahead of the 2027 general elections. He said the exchange rate assumption took into account the fiscal outlook ahead of the 2027 general elections.
The minister said that all the parameters were based on macroeconomic analysis by the Budget Office and other relevant agencies. Bagudu said FEC also reviewed comments from cabinet members before approving the Medium-Term Fiscal Expenditure Ceiling (MFTEC), which sets expenditure limits. Earlier, the Senate approved the external borrowing plan of $21.5 billion presented by President Tinubu for consideration The loans, according to the Senate, were part of the MTEF and Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP) for the 2025 budget.
The spot rate on Nigerian Treasury bills has been increased by 146 basis points by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) following tight subscription levels at the main auction on Wednesday. The spot rate on Treasury bills with one-year maturity has now surpassed Nigeria’s 16.05% inflation by 145 basis points following a recent decision to keep the policy rate at 27%.
The Apex Bank came to the primary market with N700 billion Treasury bills offer size across standard tenors, including 91-day, 182-day and 364 day maturities. Details from the auction results showed that demand settled slightly above the total offers as investors began to seek higher returns on naira assets despite disinflation.
Total subscription came in at about N775 billion versus N700 billion offers floated at the main auction. The results showed rising appetite for duration as investors parked about 90% of their bids on Nigerian Treasury bills with 364 days maturity. The CBN opened N100 billion worth of 91 days bills for subscription, but the offer received underwhelming bids totalling N44.17 billion.
The CBN allotted N42.80 billion for the short-term instrument at the spot rate of 15.30%, the same as the previous auction. Total demand for 182 days Nigerian Treasury bills settled at N33.38 billion as against N150 billion that the authority pushed out for subscription. The CBN raised N30.36 billion from 182 days bills allotted to investors at the spot rate of 15.50%, the same as the previous auction.
Investors staked N697.29 billion on N450 billion in 364-day Treasury bills that was offered for subscription. The CBN raised N636.46 billion from the longest tenor at the spot rate of 17.50%, up from 16.04% at the previous auction.
-
News3 days agoNigeria to officially tag Kidnapping as Act of Terrorism as bill passes 2nd reading in Senate
-
News3 days agoNigeria champions African-Arab trade to boost agribusiness, industrial growth
-
News3 days agoFG’s plan to tax digital currencies may push traders to into underground financing—stakeholders
-
Finance1 week agoAfreximbank successfully closed its second Samurai Bond transactions, raising JPY 81.8bn or $527m
-
News1 week agoFG launches fresh offensive against Trans-border crimes, irregular migration, ECOWAS biometric identity Card
-
Economy3 days agoMAN cries out some operators at FTZs abusing system to detriment of local manufacturers
-
News3 days agoEU to support Nigeria’s war against insecurity
-
Uncategorized3 days agoDeveloping Countries’ Debt Outflows Hit 50-Year High During 2022-2024—WBG