Analysis
Critical need for energy access in Africa: A roadmap to prosperity By Wale Shonibare
By Wale Shonibare
Across Africa, the sunlight shines bright and natural resources abound. Yet despite that lies a pressing issue that threatens to stifle the continent’s growth and prosperity: the lack of access to reliable and sustainable electricity. As we prepare for the Africa Energy Summit, taking place on January 27-28, 2025, in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, the urgency of addressing Africa’s energy needs cannot be overstated. Without power, Africa cannot achieve its development aspirations and take its rightful place at the global first table. This summit is a critical step towards unlocking Africa’s vast potential and empowering its people.
The stark reality of energy poverty and Africa’s Power Sector
Today, nearly 600 million Africans—approximately half the continent’s population—still live without access to electricity. For these individuals, daily life is a struggle illuminated by the dim glow of kerosene lamps or the intermittent hum of diesel generators. These stopgap solutions are not only expensive but also polluting, perpetuating a cycle of poverty and environmental degradation. At the current pace of electrification and with Africa’s rapid demographic growth, the number of people without electricity will remain largely unchanged unless we take bold and immediate action.
What makes this challenge significant in Africa is that, for many decades, the power sector has faced numerous interlocking challenges which include inter alia, low access rates, lack of maintenance, lack of investment, non-cost reflective tariffs, unaffordable subsidies, and lack of financial sustainability. Most of Africa’s public utilities are in financial distress – they struggle to cover their operating costs and cannot finance the required capital expenditure to maintain their operations, thus forcing them to rely on public subsidies.
At the same time, most of the financing available for energy projects today is in hard currency, which is not always sustainable because energy services are paid for by local populations in local currencies, thus resulting in a currency mismatch occasioned by the volatility of local currencies against international hard currencies. In addition, regulatory authorities are subject to political interference in most African countries, which affects their decision-making and ability to implement policies that support long-term sector development. I believe passionately that without access to reliable, affordable, and sustainable electricity, Africa will not achieve its development aspirations. Energy access is the cornerstone of economic transformation, unlocking opportunities for education, healthcare, gender equality, and income generation. It is a prerequisite for creating a green and resilient future, one where poverty is a relic of the past.
Mission 300: A bold vision for the future
In response to this urgent need, the African Development Bank Group, the World Bank, and other partners have launched an ambitious initiative known as Mission 300. This initiative aims to provide electricity access to 300 million Africans by 2030. Mission 300 is not just a number; it represents lives transformed, economies revitalized, and communities empowered. The plan focuses on accelerating electrification through a mix of grid extensions and distributed renewable energy solutions, such as mini-grids and stand-alone solar home systems. These solutions are particularly effective in reaching fragile and remote areas where traditional grid infrastructure is impractical. Complementing these efforts are investments in generation, transmission, regional interconnection, and sector reform to ensure that power supply is not only reliable but also affordable and sustainable.
Partnerships and Reforms: The Keys to Success
Mission 300 will only succeed with the collective efforts of governments, private sector stakeholders, and international partners. Governments must lead the charge by implementing critical reforms to make the energy sector more efficient and utilities more robust. Transparent and competitive tendering processes for new generation capacity, along with cost-recovery mechanisms for utilities, are essential. Regulators will have to respond with appropriate nimbleness and innovation to stay responsive to a fast changing technological and business environment. Governments and development partners must amplify the call for regional electricity trade to facilitate a shift away from the single-buyer model as well as allow the sustainable integration of Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) into weak grids to help shape the energy transition pathways of African countries.
Private sector participation is crucial for addressing Africa’s energy challenges, especially considering Africa’s rapidly growing population and the need for increased investment. The private sector is already playing a vital role in expanding renewable energy access, particularly through decentralized energy solutions, an area where traditional utility-scale projects face limitations due to infrastructure constraints. Meanwhile, multilateral development banks and philanthropic organizations must step up in unlocking private capital for the energy sector through targeted financing instruments, risk mitigation tools, technical assistance and policy advocacy. The recently launched Technical Facility Accelerator Fund is a promising step in this direction, providing technical assistance to governments and helping streamline processes to achieve Mission 300 targets.
A defining moment: The Africa energy summit
The upcoming Africa Energy Summit represents a pivotal moment for the continent. Hosted by the Government of the United Republic of Tanzania, the African Union, the African Development Bank Group, and the World Bank Group, this summit will bring together heads of state, energy experts, and private sector leaders to forge a path toward universal energy access.
At the summit, several African governments will present their national energy compacts, outlining their commitments to reforms and near-term actions to achieve their energy targets. These compacts will showcase the innovative strategies and partnerships being deployed to advance universal energy access in a reliable, affordable, and sustainable manner. The summit will also highlight the critical role of international partners such as the Rockefeller Foundation, Sustainable Energy for All, and the Global Energy Alliance for People and Planet, who are mobilizing resources and expertise to support this mission. Significantly, the summit will unveil some new spending commitments and innovative initiatives designed to encourage African Countries to mobilize more of their domestic resources to finance the accelerated roll-out of green energy infrastructure across the continent.
Why Now?
The convergence of technological breakthroughs, digitization, and innovative financing models makes this the most opportune time to tackle Africa’s energy challenges. Achieving Mission 300 will not only light up homes and businesses but also drive progress in education, healthcare, and gender equality. It will reduce emissions, enhance welfare, and boost income generation and financial inclusion across the continent. As we gather in Dar es Salaam, let us be reminded that energy access is more than just a technical challenge; it is a moral imperative. By working together, we can transform the energy landscape of Africa and, in doing so, create a bright er, more prosperous future for millions. Let us make Mission 300 a turning point. Let us make sure the 13 landmark compact agreements signed this week point the way to lighting up the rest of our continent.
*Wale Shonibare is African Development Bank’s Director of Energy Financial Solutions, Policy, and Regulation
Analysis
As EU plans Russian Gas exit, Ministers to convene in Paris to chart Africa’s export potential
In the wake of seismic shifts in the European energy landscape, the Invest in African Energy (IAE) 2026 Forum in Paris will host a Ministerial Dialogue on “Unlocking Africa’s Gas Supply for Global Energy Security.” This strategic session will examine how Africa can turn its untapped gas reserves into a reliable and sustainable source of supply. With Europe seeking to diversify away from Russian gas, the dialogue highlights both the continent’s growing role in global energy markets and the opportunity for African producers to attract long-term investment. Recent developments underscore the urgency of Africa’s role in global energy security. Last month, EU countries agreed to phase out their remaining Russian gas imports, with existing contracts benefiting from a transition period: short-term contracts can continue until June 2026, while long-term contracts will run until January 2028. In parallel, the European Commission is pushing to end Russian LNG imports by January 2027 under a broader sanctions package aimed at limiting Moscow’s energy revenues.
Africa’s role in this rebalancing is already gaining momentum. Algeria recently renewed its gas supply agreement with ČEZ Group, ensuring continued deliveries to the Czech Republic. In Libya, the National Oil Corporation (NOC) has approved new compressors at the Bahr Essalam field to boost output and reinforce flows via the Greenstream pipeline to Italy. These developments complement the Structures A&E offshore project – led by Eni and the NOC – which is expected to bring two platforms online by 2026 and produce up to 750 million cubic feet per day, supporting both domestic and European demand. West Africa is pursuing ambitious export routes as well.
Nigeria, Algeria and Niger have revived the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline (TSGP), with engineering firm Penspen commissioned earlier this year to revalidate its feasibility. The proposed $25 billion Nigeria–Morocco pipeline is also advancing as a long-term corridor linking West African gas to European markets. Meanwhile, the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim (GTA) project off Mauritania and Senegal came online earlier this year, with its first phase targeting 2.3 million tons of LNG annually. In June, the project delivered its third cargo to Belgium’s Zeebrugge terminal, marking the first African LNG shipment from GTA to Europe. Together, these milestones underscore a strategic convergence: African producers are accelerating efforts to scale up exports just as Europe intensifies its search for reliable alternatives to Russian gas.
Yet, as the ministerial session will explore, unlocking Africa’s gas supply demands sustained investment, regulatory alignment, environmental management and community engagement. For Europe, diversification of supply is a strategic necessity; for African producers, it is an opportunity to accelerate development, build infrastructure and secure long-term capital. At IAE 2026, these shifts will be examined by the officials and stakeholders driving them. The Ministerial Dialogue brings African energy leaders together with European policymakers, industry players and investors in a setting that supports practical, solution-focused discussion on supply, export strategies and future cooperation. As Europe adapts its gas strategy and African producers progress major projects, the Forum provides a direct platform for ministers to outline priorities and for investors to engage with key decision-makers.
Analysis
Authorities must respond as digital tools used by organized criminals accelerate financial crime—IMF
International Monetary Fund IMF, has said that criminals are outpacing enforcement by adapting ever faster ways to carry out digital fraud. The INF in a Blog post said the Department of Justice in June announced the largest-ever US crypto seizure: $225 million from crypto scams known as pig butchering, in which organized criminals, often across borders, use advanced technology and social engineering such as romance or investment schemes to manipulate victims. This typically involves using AI-generated profiles, encrypted messaging, and obscured blockchain transactions to hide and move stolen funds. It was a big win. Federal agents collaborated across jurisdictions and used blockchain analysis and machine learning to track thousands of wallets used to scam more than 400 victims. Yet it was also a rare victory that underscored how authorities often must play catch-up in a fast-changing digital world. And the scammers are still out there. They pick the best tools for their schemes, from laundering money through crypto and AI-enabled impersonation to producing deepfake content, encrypted apps, and decentralized exchanges. Authorities confronting anonymous, borderless threats are held back by jurisdiction, process, and legacy systems.
Annual illicit crypto activity growth has averaged about 25 percent in recent years and may have surpassed $51 billion last year, according to Chainalysis, a New York–based blockchain analysis firm specializing in helping criminal investigators trace transactions. Bad actors still depend on cash and traditional finance, and money laundering specifically relies on banks, informal money changers, and cash couriers. But the old ways are being reinforced or supercharged by technologies to thwart detection and disruption.
Encrypted messaging apps help cartels coordinate cross-border transactions. Stablecoins and lightly regulated virtual asset platforms can hide bribes and embezzled funds. Cybercriminals use AI-generated identities and bots to deceive banks and evade outdated controls. Tracking proceeds generated by organized crime is nearly impossible for underresourced agencies. AI lowers barriers to entry. Fraudsters with voice-cloning and fake-document generators bypass the verification protocols many banks and regulators still use. Their innovation is growing as compliance systems lag. Governments recognize the threats, but responses are fragmented and uneven—including in regulation of crypto exchanges. And there are delays implementing the Financial Action Task Force’s (FATF’s) “travel rule” to better identify those sending and receiving money across borders, which most digital proceeds cross.
Meanwhile, international financial flows are increasingly complicated by instant transfers on decentralized platforms and anonymity-enhancing tools. Most payments still go through multiple intermediaries, often layering cross-border transactions through antiquated correspondent banks that obscure and delay transactions while raising costs. This helps criminals exploit oversight gaps, jurisdictional coordination, and technological capacity to operate across borders, often undetected.
Regulators and fintechs should be partners, and sustained multilateral engagement should foster fast, cheap, transparent, and traceable cross-border payments. There’s a parallel narrative. Criminals exploit innovation for secrecy and speed while companies and governments test coordination to reduce vulnerabilities and modernize cross-border infrastructure. At the same time, technological implications remain underexplored with respect to anti–money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism, or AML/CFT. Singapore’s and Thailand’s linked fast payment systems, for example, enable real-time retail transfers using mobile numbers; Indonesia and Malaysia have connected QR codes for cross-border payments. Such innovations offer efficiency and inclusion yet raise new issues regarding identity verification, transaction monitoring, and regulatory coordination.
In India, the Unified payments interface enables seamless transfers across apps and platforms, highlighting the power of interoperable design. More than 18 billion monthly transactions, many across competing platforms, show how openness and standardization drive scale and inclusion. Digital payments in India grew faster when interoperability improved, especially in fragmented markets where switching was costly, IMF research shows These regional innovations and global initiatives reflect a growing understanding that fighting crime and fostering inclusion are interlinked priorities—especially as criminals speed ahead. The FATF echoed this concern, urging countries to design AML/CFT controls that support inclusion and innovation. Moreover, an FATF June recommendation marks a major advance: Requiring originator and beneficiary information for cross-border wire transfers—including those involving virtual assets—will enhance traceability across the fast-evolving digital financial ecosystem.
Efforts like these are important examples of how technology enables criminal advantage, but technology must also be part of the regulatory response.
Modernizing cross-border payment systems and reducing unintended AML/CFT barriers increasingly means focusing on transparency, interoperability, and risk-based regulation. The IMF’s work on “safe payment corridors” supports this by helping countries build trusted, secure channels for legitimate financial flows without undermining new technology. A pilot with Samoa —where de-risking has disrupted remittances—showed how targeted safeguards and collaboration with regulated providers can preserve access while maintaining financial integrity without disrupting the use of new payment platforms.
Several countries, with IMF guidance, are investing in machine learning to detect anomalies in cross-border financial flows, and others are tightening regulation of virtual asset service providers. Governments are investing in their own capacity to trace crypto transfers, and blockchain analytics firms are often employed to do that. IMF analysis of cross-border flows and the updated FATF rules are mutually reinforcing. If implemented cohesively, they can help digital efficiency coexist with financial integrity. For that to happen, legal frameworks must adapt to enable timely access to digital evidence while preserving due process. Supervisory models need to evolve to oversee both banks and nonbank financial institutions offering cross-border services. Regulators and fintechs should be partners, and sustained multilateral engagement should foster fast, cheap, transparent, and traceable cross-border payments—anchored interoperable standards that also respect privacy.
Governments must keep up. That means investing in regulatory technology, such as AI-powered transaction monitoring and blockchain analysis, and giving agencies tools and expertise to detect complex crypto schemes and synthetic identity fraud. Institutions must keep pace with criminals by hiring and retaining expert data scientists and financial crime specialists. Virtual assets must be brought under AML/CFT regulation, public-private partnerships should codevelop tools to spot emerging risks, and global standards from the FATF and the Financial Stability Board must be backed by national investments in effective AML/CFT frameworks.
Consistent and coordinated implementation is important. Fragmented efforts leave openings for criminals. Their growing technological advantage over governments threatens to undermine financial integrity, destabilize economies, weaken already fragile institutions, and erode public trust in systems meant to ensure safety and fairness. As crime rings adopt and adapt emerging technologies to outpace enforcement, the cost is not only fiscal—it is structural and systemic. Governments can’t wait. The criminals won’t.
Analysis
Multilateral development banks reaffirm commitment to climate finance, pledge innovative funding for adaptation
Multilateral development banks have reaffirmed their commitment to climate finance, pledging to scale up innovative funding to boost climate adaptation and resilience. “Financing climate resilience is not a cost, but an investment.” This was the key message from senior MDB officials at the end of a side event organised by the Climate Investment Funds (CIF) on the opening day of the 30th United Nations Climate Conference (COP30) in Belém, Brazil.
The conference runs from 10 to 21 November. During a panel discussion titled “Accelerating large-scale climate change adaptation,” MDB representatives, including the African Development Bank Group, outlined how their institutions are fulfilling Paris Agreement commitments by mobilising substantial and innovative resources for climate adaptation and mitigation. Ilan Goldfajn, President of the Inter-American Development Bank Group, emphasised that “resilience is more than a concern for the future: it is also essential for development today.” He announced that MDBs are tripling their financing for resilience over the next decade, targeting $42 billion by 2030.
“At the Inter-American Development Bank, we are turning preparedness into protection and resilience into opportunity,” Goldfajn added. Tanja Faller, Director of Technical Evaluation and Monitoring at the Council of Europe Development Bank, stressed that climate change “not only creates new threats, but also amplifies existing inequalities. The most socially vulnerable people are the hardest hit and the last to recover. This is how a climate crisis also becomes a social crisis.” Representatives from the Islamic Development Bank, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, the Asian Development Bank, the World Bank Group, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the European Investment Bank, the New Development Bank and IDB Invest (the private sector arm of the Inter-American Development Bank Group) also shared concrete examples of successful adaptation investments and strategies for mobilising new resources.
Kevin Kariuki, Vice President of the African Development Bank Group in charge of Power, Energy, Climate and Green Growth, presented the Bank’s leadership in advancing climate adaptation and mitigation. “At the African Development Bank, we understand the priorities of our countries: adaptation and mitigation are at the heart of our climate interventions.” He highlighted the creation of the Climate Action Window, a new financing mechanism under the African Development Fund, the Bank Group’s concessional window for low-income countries.
“The African Development Bank is the only multilateral development bank with a portfolio of adaptation projects ready for investment through the Climate Action Window,” Kariuki noted, adding that Germany, the United Kingdom and Switzerland are among key co-financing partners. Kariuki also showcased the Bank’s YouthADAPT programme, which has invested $5.4 million in 41 youth-led enterprises across 20 African countries, generating more than 10,000 jobs — 61 percent of which are led by women, and mobilising an additional $7 million in private and donor funding.
Representatives from Zambia, Mozambique and Jamaica also shared local perspectives on the financing needs of communities most exposed to climate risk. The panel followed the official opening of COP30, marked by a passionate appeal from Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for greater climate investment to prevent a “tragedy for humanity.”
“Without the Paris Agreement, we would see a 4–5°C increase in global temperatures,” Lula warned. “Our call to action is based on three pillars: honouring commitments; accelerating public action with a roadmap enabling humanity to move away from fossil fuels and deforestation; and placing humanity at the heart of the climate action programme: thousands of people are living in poverty and deprivation as a result of climate change. The climate emergency is a crisis of inequality,” he continued.
“We must build a future that is not doomed to tragedy. We must ensure that we live in a world where we can still dream.” Outgoing COP President Mukhtar Babayevn, Azerbaijan’s Minister of Ecology, urged developed nations to fulfil their promises made at the Baku Conference, including commitments to mobilise $300 billion in climate finance. He called for stronger political will and multilateral cooperation, before handing over the COP presidency to Brazilian diplomat André Corrêa do Lago, who now leads the negotiations.
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