Analysis
How Tinubu is ensuring equitable access to public services
By Chinedu Moghalu
The 29th of next month will mark the second anniversary of the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. The last two years have witnessed a seismic shift toward market economic policy. We assessed the performance of the economic reform in the first part of this series, showing that recent macroeconomic data supports the assertion that the economy is already recovering. This is despite the fact that the administration has a long-term view on the benefits of the reform. The second part of the series focused on the transformation in the infrastructural landscape due to the projects being implemented by the government. This final part of the series assesses the delivery of public services, including education and healthcare, in the last two years. Public services are vital for the citizens and influence the optimal performance of the economy. Public services, such as healthcare and education, are also known as social services because of their impact on the well-being of society. In the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, which try to set the pace and best practices in sustainable economic progress, spending on public services, on average, account for 20 percent of GDP.
For many years, public service delivery in Nigeria has been challenged by underfunding and inefficiency in the budgetary and project implementation processes. Budgetary allocations for education and healthcare fail to meet the global benchmarks and are often delayed, leading to high levels of spending inefficiency. Lack of infrastructure has also meant that people in the suburban and rural areas received far less coverage of public services. As the country relies more and more on private provision of services amid growing poverty, the more the citizens are deprived of access to services that could enable them to be healthy and able to compete for economic opportunities. There is no strategy for addressing the general low level of access to quality public services in Nigeria without dramatically increasing the level of public investment in them. It is this realisation that has driven the reform to increase government revenue through taxation and end the expensive subsidies on petrol and foreign exchange by the Tinubu administration. These policies have enabled the administration to commence the all-important increase in budgetary spending on education and health.
In the 2025 Federal Government’s budget, allocation for education was N3.52 trillion – a 304 percent increase compared to 2022. Allocation for health rose to N2.48 trillion, up 242 percent. These are not just headline numbers; they signal a shift in national priorities. Education and health are no longer being treated as budgetary afterthoughts – they are being financed as tools of transformation. In healthcare, the government launched the Health Sector Renewal Investment Initiative (NHSRII) in 2023, backed by a historic compact signed by all stakeholders and witnessed by the President. It is built around one purpose: saving lives and delivering care without pain – financial or physical. For the first time ever, Nigeria is implementing a full Sector-Wide Approach (SWAp) in health, anchored on the principle of “one plan, one budget, one report.” This whole-of-government and whole-of-society model brings together federal and state governments, development partners, civil society, and traditional and religious institutions under a unified results framework – breaking the silos that have long weakened service delivery and accountability.
Already, 862 Primary Healthcare Centres have been revitalised, bringing essential services closer to where people live. An additional 2,500 centres are being upgraded. In Katsina, 23-year-old Hadiza no longer walks 17km to the next town to deliver her baby. Her community PHC now has trained birth attendants and a clean delivery bed – simple, life-saving changes that used to be a dream. To accelerate reductions in maternal mortality, the government launched the Maternal and Neonatal Mortality Reduction Innovation and Initiatives (MAMII) during the 2024 Joint Annual Review (JAR). Empaneled by the National Health Insurance Authority (NHIA), MAMII targets 172 Local Government Areas across 33 states which, although representing only 20 percent of LGAs nationwide, account for an estimated 55 percent of Nigeria’s maternal mortality burden. This disparity underscores the urgency of targeted maternal health interventions, and MAMII provides a structured mechanism for delivering integrated, life-saving services to the women and newborns most at risk.
The government has also revitalised the National Fistula Programme, providing surgical repair and post-operative care for women affected by obstetric fistula. Delivered under the NHSRII framework, this initiative restores dignity to vulnerable women and offers pathways for social and economic reintegration. As of 2025, the free fistula repair programme has reached 2,216 women across 18 fistula treatment centres, with 1,143 beneficiaries enrolled into health insurance. In parallel, over 3,734 women have received free obstetric care nationwide – part of a broader maternal health effort to reduce preventable deaths and expand equitable access.
Millions have been treated for neglected tropical diseases. The World Health Organisation has recognised the success of this initiative in lifting vulnerable populations out of the health crisis. Nigeria’s Joint Annual Review (JAR) and the emerging national health performance scorecard are helping to institutionalise accountability and transparency across the system.
Insurance coverage has expanded to 19.8 million Nigerians – mothers, traders, children – people who, just two years ago, had no access to care. In February 2024, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu was appointed by the African Union as Champion for Human Resources for Health and Community Health Delivery – an acknowledgment of his leadership in driving systemic health workforce reform. Building on this continental mandate, the Federal Government approved the deployment of 774 National Health Fellows in January 2025, with training commencing the following month. Selected from every local government area in Nigeria, these fellows have been strategically positioned to strengthen primary healthcare delivery nationwide, while complementing broader efforts to improve workforce retention, expand return-to-practice pathways for Nigerian health professionals abroad, and institutionalise real-time personnel tracking through national registries. One of them, James from Langtang North, returned home after years of waiting for an opportunity to serve. Today, he’s leading immunisation sessions in villages where vaccines hadn’t been seen in months.
In the education sector, the administration is pursuing various reform initiatives towards building a knowledge-based economy. To remove the financial barrier to access to higher education, the government launched the Nigerian Education Loan Fund (NELFUND) in 2024. As of February 2025, over N42.8 billion has now been disbursed to more than 440,000 applicants, demonstrating sustained uptake and expanded access. To combat poverty and improve education access, the Almajiri Integration Programme successfully integrated 1.2 million Almajiri children into the formal education system in 2024. This initiative is now being scaled under the Nigeria Education Sector Renewal Initiative (NESRI), which targets the reintegration of 10 million out-of-school children by 2027. [In the FCT alone, 25,000 Almajiri children have been enrolled into the public school system. 12-year-old Musa used to spend his mornings begging in Gwagwalada. Today, he walks to school in a UBEC uniform, reciting multiplication tables. His mother says he now dreams of becoming a teacher.
A comprehensive curriculum reform has been introduced to ensure that Nigerian students are equipped with the necessary skills to thrive in the 21st-century economy. The reform focuses on STEM education, vocational skills, and entrepreneurship. This has now evolved into a broader national drive under STEMM – Science, Technology, Engineering, Mathematics, and Medical Sciences – with a fourfold increase in the number of beneficiaries across key disciplines. High-impact interventions are supporting 18 medical schools across Nigeria’s six geopolitical zones to revamp infrastructure and expand student intake in medicine, nursing, pharmacy, and dentistry. Also, the government has launched nationwide training programmes for teachers to improve the quality of education by ensuring that teachers are equipped to deliver modern, high-quality instruction across all levels. [o far, 978,800 teachers are being trained in phases, supported by the distribution of 2 million teaching aids and 103 million textbooks, under a national effort to close foundational learning gaps.
Mrs. Onome, a primary school teacher in Delta State, received her first ever government-distributed textbook set last year – after 15 years of teaching. Mr. President has also demonstrated strong leadership in unlocking new financing models for public education. The HOPE for Quality Basic Education for All programme (HOPE-EDU) represents Nigeria’s first access to the Global Partnership for Education Multiplier Grant [and is backed by $552.18 million in external financing – comprising $500 million from the World Bank (IDA) and $52.18 million from GPE. The programme adopts a performance-driven, equity-focused approach and has positioned Nigeria as a continental leader in foundational learning reform. Through HOPE-EDU, the government aims to construct 13,000 new classrooms, rehabilitate existing infrastructure, establish non-formal learning centres, and train over 400,000 teachers under a structured pedagogy framework. With over $609.7 million budgeted for implementation in 2025 alone, total basic education investments under HOPE-EDU are projected to reach $3.72 billion by 2029. The Nigeria Education Data Initiative (NEDI), now being institutionalised across State Universal Basic Education Boards and Local Government Education Authorities, enables real-time tracking of school-level data and was profiled at the 2024 World Bank Spring Meetings as a model for systems-level reform. These efforts, through the HOPE-EDU and other NESRI strategic initiatives, are anchored in state-level School Improvement Plans and accountability frameworks and are designed to reduce Nigeria’s estimated 14.8 million out-of-school children and reverse the country’s learning poverty at scale.
To shield the most vulnerable from the immediate shocks of reform, over four million households have already received N75,000 each through conditional cash transfers. Skills training under the Renewed Hope Employment Initiative is equipping over 93,000 young Nigerians with tools to launch small businesses, grow food, offer services, or work with dignity. Water systems are being rehabilitated. Toilets and boreholes are appearing where there were none. These are the real dividends of reform – not just numbers, but tangible improvements in daily life. Other impactful initiatives to deliver public goods to Nigerians include the investment of N1.5 trillion in upgrading water infrastructure and providing clean water to 5 million Nigerians in underserved regions, a nationwide waste management programme, and training and employment of over 200,000 young Nigerians in sectors such as technology, agriculture, and construction through the National Youth Empowerment Scheme.
Across both health and education, federal dashboards now support real-time tracking of programme delivery. By Q4 2024, NHSRII and HOPE-EDU milestones were already being tied to results-based financing and independently verified by development partners. The country still has a long way to go in expanding access and quality of public services. But the administration of President Tinubu has initiated many reforms that must be sustained. The challenges in implementing such reforms in Nigeria, including bringing public accountability to the process, should be addressed to maximise the benefits of these policies. While it is important to maintain the reform momentum, stakeholders must also deepen their commitment based on the results already being achieved.
*Chinedu Moghalu is the Senior Special Adviser on Strategic Communication, Stakeholder Engagement and Advocacy to the Coordinating Minister of Health and Social Welfare.
Analysis
As EU plans Russian Gas exit, Ministers to convene in Paris to chart Africa’s export potential
In the wake of seismic shifts in the European energy landscape, the Invest in African Energy (IAE) 2026 Forum in Paris will host a Ministerial Dialogue on “Unlocking Africa’s Gas Supply for Global Energy Security.” This strategic session will examine how Africa can turn its untapped gas reserves into a reliable and sustainable source of supply. With Europe seeking to diversify away from Russian gas, the dialogue highlights both the continent’s growing role in global energy markets and the opportunity for African producers to attract long-term investment. Recent developments underscore the urgency of Africa’s role in global energy security. Last month, EU countries agreed to phase out their remaining Russian gas imports, with existing contracts benefiting from a transition period: short-term contracts can continue until June 2026, while long-term contracts will run until January 2028. In parallel, the European Commission is pushing to end Russian LNG imports by January 2027 under a broader sanctions package aimed at limiting Moscow’s energy revenues.
Africa’s role in this rebalancing is already gaining momentum. Algeria recently renewed its gas supply agreement with ČEZ Group, ensuring continued deliveries to the Czech Republic. In Libya, the National Oil Corporation (NOC) has approved new compressors at the Bahr Essalam field to boost output and reinforce flows via the Greenstream pipeline to Italy. These developments complement the Structures A&E offshore project – led by Eni and the NOC – which is expected to bring two platforms online by 2026 and produce up to 750 million cubic feet per day, supporting both domestic and European demand. West Africa is pursuing ambitious export routes as well.
Nigeria, Algeria and Niger have revived the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline (TSGP), with engineering firm Penspen commissioned earlier this year to revalidate its feasibility. The proposed $25 billion Nigeria–Morocco pipeline is also advancing as a long-term corridor linking West African gas to European markets. Meanwhile, the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim (GTA) project off Mauritania and Senegal came online earlier this year, with its first phase targeting 2.3 million tons of LNG annually. In June, the project delivered its third cargo to Belgium’s Zeebrugge terminal, marking the first African LNG shipment from GTA to Europe. Together, these milestones underscore a strategic convergence: African producers are accelerating efforts to scale up exports just as Europe intensifies its search for reliable alternatives to Russian gas.
Yet, as the ministerial session will explore, unlocking Africa’s gas supply demands sustained investment, regulatory alignment, environmental management and community engagement. For Europe, diversification of supply is a strategic necessity; for African producers, it is an opportunity to accelerate development, build infrastructure and secure long-term capital. At IAE 2026, these shifts will be examined by the officials and stakeholders driving them. The Ministerial Dialogue brings African energy leaders together with European policymakers, industry players and investors in a setting that supports practical, solution-focused discussion on supply, export strategies and future cooperation. As Europe adapts its gas strategy and African producers progress major projects, the Forum provides a direct platform for ministers to outline priorities and for investors to engage with key decision-makers.
Analysis
Authorities must respond as digital tools used by organized criminals accelerate financial crime—IMF
International Monetary Fund IMF, has said that criminals are outpacing enforcement by adapting ever faster ways to carry out digital fraud. The INF in a Blog post said the Department of Justice in June announced the largest-ever US crypto seizure: $225 million from crypto scams known as pig butchering, in which organized criminals, often across borders, use advanced technology and social engineering such as romance or investment schemes to manipulate victims. This typically involves using AI-generated profiles, encrypted messaging, and obscured blockchain transactions to hide and move stolen funds. It was a big win. Federal agents collaborated across jurisdictions and used blockchain analysis and machine learning to track thousands of wallets used to scam more than 400 victims. Yet it was also a rare victory that underscored how authorities often must play catch-up in a fast-changing digital world. And the scammers are still out there. They pick the best tools for their schemes, from laundering money through crypto and AI-enabled impersonation to producing deepfake content, encrypted apps, and decentralized exchanges. Authorities confronting anonymous, borderless threats are held back by jurisdiction, process, and legacy systems.
Annual illicit crypto activity growth has averaged about 25 percent in recent years and may have surpassed $51 billion last year, according to Chainalysis, a New York–based blockchain analysis firm specializing in helping criminal investigators trace transactions. Bad actors still depend on cash and traditional finance, and money laundering specifically relies on banks, informal money changers, and cash couriers. But the old ways are being reinforced or supercharged by technologies to thwart detection and disruption.
Encrypted messaging apps help cartels coordinate cross-border transactions. Stablecoins and lightly regulated virtual asset platforms can hide bribes and embezzled funds. Cybercriminals use AI-generated identities and bots to deceive banks and evade outdated controls. Tracking proceeds generated by organized crime is nearly impossible for underresourced agencies. AI lowers barriers to entry. Fraudsters with voice-cloning and fake-document generators bypass the verification protocols many banks and regulators still use. Their innovation is growing as compliance systems lag. Governments recognize the threats, but responses are fragmented and uneven—including in regulation of crypto exchanges. And there are delays implementing the Financial Action Task Force’s (FATF’s) “travel rule” to better identify those sending and receiving money across borders, which most digital proceeds cross.
Meanwhile, international financial flows are increasingly complicated by instant transfers on decentralized platforms and anonymity-enhancing tools. Most payments still go through multiple intermediaries, often layering cross-border transactions through antiquated correspondent banks that obscure and delay transactions while raising costs. This helps criminals exploit oversight gaps, jurisdictional coordination, and technological capacity to operate across borders, often undetected.
Regulators and fintechs should be partners, and sustained multilateral engagement should foster fast, cheap, transparent, and traceable cross-border payments. There’s a parallel narrative. Criminals exploit innovation for secrecy and speed while companies and governments test coordination to reduce vulnerabilities and modernize cross-border infrastructure. At the same time, technological implications remain underexplored with respect to anti–money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism, or AML/CFT. Singapore’s and Thailand’s linked fast payment systems, for example, enable real-time retail transfers using mobile numbers; Indonesia and Malaysia have connected QR codes for cross-border payments. Such innovations offer efficiency and inclusion yet raise new issues regarding identity verification, transaction monitoring, and regulatory coordination.
In India, the Unified payments interface enables seamless transfers across apps and platforms, highlighting the power of interoperable design. More than 18 billion monthly transactions, many across competing platforms, show how openness and standardization drive scale and inclusion. Digital payments in India grew faster when interoperability improved, especially in fragmented markets where switching was costly, IMF research shows These regional innovations and global initiatives reflect a growing understanding that fighting crime and fostering inclusion are interlinked priorities—especially as criminals speed ahead. The FATF echoed this concern, urging countries to design AML/CFT controls that support inclusion and innovation. Moreover, an FATF June recommendation marks a major advance: Requiring originator and beneficiary information for cross-border wire transfers—including those involving virtual assets—will enhance traceability across the fast-evolving digital financial ecosystem.
Efforts like these are important examples of how technology enables criminal advantage, but technology must also be part of the regulatory response.
Modernizing cross-border payment systems and reducing unintended AML/CFT barriers increasingly means focusing on transparency, interoperability, and risk-based regulation. The IMF’s work on “safe payment corridors” supports this by helping countries build trusted, secure channels for legitimate financial flows without undermining new technology. A pilot with Samoa —where de-risking has disrupted remittances—showed how targeted safeguards and collaboration with regulated providers can preserve access while maintaining financial integrity without disrupting the use of new payment platforms.
Several countries, with IMF guidance, are investing in machine learning to detect anomalies in cross-border financial flows, and others are tightening regulation of virtual asset service providers. Governments are investing in their own capacity to trace crypto transfers, and blockchain analytics firms are often employed to do that. IMF analysis of cross-border flows and the updated FATF rules are mutually reinforcing. If implemented cohesively, they can help digital efficiency coexist with financial integrity. For that to happen, legal frameworks must adapt to enable timely access to digital evidence while preserving due process. Supervisory models need to evolve to oversee both banks and nonbank financial institutions offering cross-border services. Regulators and fintechs should be partners, and sustained multilateral engagement should foster fast, cheap, transparent, and traceable cross-border payments—anchored interoperable standards that also respect privacy.
Governments must keep up. That means investing in regulatory technology, such as AI-powered transaction monitoring and blockchain analysis, and giving agencies tools and expertise to detect complex crypto schemes and synthetic identity fraud. Institutions must keep pace with criminals by hiring and retaining expert data scientists and financial crime specialists. Virtual assets must be brought under AML/CFT regulation, public-private partnerships should codevelop tools to spot emerging risks, and global standards from the FATF and the Financial Stability Board must be backed by national investments in effective AML/CFT frameworks.
Consistent and coordinated implementation is important. Fragmented efforts leave openings for criminals. Their growing technological advantage over governments threatens to undermine financial integrity, destabilize economies, weaken already fragile institutions, and erode public trust in systems meant to ensure safety and fairness. As crime rings adopt and adapt emerging technologies to outpace enforcement, the cost is not only fiscal—it is structural and systemic. Governments can’t wait. The criminals won’t.
Analysis
Multilateral development banks reaffirm commitment to climate finance, pledge innovative funding for adaptation
Multilateral development banks have reaffirmed their commitment to climate finance, pledging to scale up innovative funding to boost climate adaptation and resilience. “Financing climate resilience is not a cost, but an investment.” This was the key message from senior MDB officials at the end of a side event organised by the Climate Investment Funds (CIF) on the opening day of the 30th United Nations Climate Conference (COP30) in Belém, Brazil.
The conference runs from 10 to 21 November. During a panel discussion titled “Accelerating large-scale climate change adaptation,” MDB representatives, including the African Development Bank Group, outlined how their institutions are fulfilling Paris Agreement commitments by mobilising substantial and innovative resources for climate adaptation and mitigation. Ilan Goldfajn, President of the Inter-American Development Bank Group, emphasised that “resilience is more than a concern for the future: it is also essential for development today.” He announced that MDBs are tripling their financing for resilience over the next decade, targeting $42 billion by 2030.
“At the Inter-American Development Bank, we are turning preparedness into protection and resilience into opportunity,” Goldfajn added. Tanja Faller, Director of Technical Evaluation and Monitoring at the Council of Europe Development Bank, stressed that climate change “not only creates new threats, but also amplifies existing inequalities. The most socially vulnerable people are the hardest hit and the last to recover. This is how a climate crisis also becomes a social crisis.” Representatives from the Islamic Development Bank, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, the Asian Development Bank, the World Bank Group, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the European Investment Bank, the New Development Bank and IDB Invest (the private sector arm of the Inter-American Development Bank Group) also shared concrete examples of successful adaptation investments and strategies for mobilising new resources.
Kevin Kariuki, Vice President of the African Development Bank Group in charge of Power, Energy, Climate and Green Growth, presented the Bank’s leadership in advancing climate adaptation and mitigation. “At the African Development Bank, we understand the priorities of our countries: adaptation and mitigation are at the heart of our climate interventions.” He highlighted the creation of the Climate Action Window, a new financing mechanism under the African Development Fund, the Bank Group’s concessional window for low-income countries.
“The African Development Bank is the only multilateral development bank with a portfolio of adaptation projects ready for investment through the Climate Action Window,” Kariuki noted, adding that Germany, the United Kingdom and Switzerland are among key co-financing partners. Kariuki also showcased the Bank’s YouthADAPT programme, which has invested $5.4 million in 41 youth-led enterprises across 20 African countries, generating more than 10,000 jobs — 61 percent of which are led by women, and mobilising an additional $7 million in private and donor funding.
Representatives from Zambia, Mozambique and Jamaica also shared local perspectives on the financing needs of communities most exposed to climate risk. The panel followed the official opening of COP30, marked by a passionate appeal from Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for greater climate investment to prevent a “tragedy for humanity.”
“Without the Paris Agreement, we would see a 4–5°C increase in global temperatures,” Lula warned. “Our call to action is based on three pillars: honouring commitments; accelerating public action with a roadmap enabling humanity to move away from fossil fuels and deforestation; and placing humanity at the heart of the climate action programme: thousands of people are living in poverty and deprivation as a result of climate change. The climate emergency is a crisis of inequality,” he continued.
“We must build a future that is not doomed to tragedy. We must ensure that we live in a world where we can still dream.” Outgoing COP President Mukhtar Babayevn, Azerbaijan’s Minister of Ecology, urged developed nations to fulfil their promises made at the Baku Conference, including commitments to mobilise $300 billion in climate finance. He called for stronger political will and multilateral cooperation, before handing over the COP presidency to Brazilian diplomat André Corrêa do Lago, who now leads the negotiations.
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