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Global economy set for weakest run since 2008 outside of recessions, 2025 growth forecasts cut for 70% of economies
Heightened trade tensions and policy uncertainty are expected to drive global growth down this year to its slowest pace since 2008 outside of outright global recessions, according to the World Bank’s latest Global Economic Prospects report. The turmoil has resulted in growth forecasts being cut in nearly 70% of all economies, across all regions and income groups. According to the World Bank Group, “global growth is projected to slow to 2.3 per cent in 2025, nearly half a percentage point lower than the rate that had been expected at the start of the year. A global recession is not expected. Nevertheless, if forecasts for the next two years materialize, average global growth in the first seven years of the 2020s will be the slowest of any decade since the 1960s.”
Indermit Gill, the World Bank Group’s Chief Economist and Senior Vice President for Development Economics said “Outside of Asia, the developing world is becoming a development-free zone. said “It has been advertising itself for more than a decade. Growth in developing economies has ratcheted down for three decades—from 6 per cent annually in the 2000s to 5 per cent in the 2010s—to less than 4 per cent in the 2020s. That tracks the trajectory of growth in global trade, which has fallen from an average of 5 percent in the 2000s to about 4.5 per cent in the 2010s—to less than 3 per cent in the 2020s. Investment growth has also slowed, but debt has climbed to record levels.”
Growth is expected to slow in nearly 60 per cent of all developing economies this year, averaging 3.8 percent in 2025 before edging up to an average of 3.9 per cent over 2026 and 2027. That is more than a percentage point lower than the average of the 2010s. Low-income countries are expected to grow 5.3 percent this year—a downgrade of 0.4 percentage point from the forecast at the start of 2025. Tariff increases and tight labor markets are also exerting upward pressure on global inflation, which, at a projected average of 2.9 percent in 2025, remains above pre-pandemic levels.
Slowing growth will impede developing economies in their efforts to spur job creation, reduce extreme poverty, and close per capita income gaps with advanced economies. Per capita income growth in developing economies is projected to be 2.9 percent in 2025—1.1 percentage points below the average between 2000 and 2019. Assuming developing economies other than China are able to sustain an overall GDP growth of 4 percent—the rate forecast for 2027—it would take them about two decades to return to their pre-pandemic trajectory with respect to economic output.
Global growth could rebound faster than expected if major economies are able to mitigate trade tensions—which would reduce overall policy uncertainty and financial volatility. The analysis finds that if today’s trade disputes were resolved with agreements that halve tariffs relative to their levels in late May, global growth would be 0.2 percentage point stronger on average over the course of 2025 and 2026.
M. Ayhan Kose, the World Bank’s Deputy Chief Economist and Director of the Prospects Group said “emerging-market and developing economies reaped the rewards of trade integration but now find themselves on the frontlines of a global trade conflict, the smartest way to respond is to redouble efforts on integration with new partners, advance pro-growth reforms, and shore up fiscal resilience to weather the storm. With trade barriers rising and uncertainty mounting, renewed global dialogue and cooperation can chart a more stable and prosperous path forward.”
The report argues that in the face of rising trade barriers, developing economies should seek to liberalize more broadly by pursuing strategic trade and investment partnerships with other economies and diversifying trade—including through regional agreements. Given limited government resources and rising development needs, policymakers should focus on mobilizing domestic revenues, prioritizing fiscal spending for the most vulnerable households, and strengthening fiscal frameworks.
Finally, to accelerate economic growth, countries will need to improve business climates and promote productive employment by equipping workers with the necessary skills and creating the conditions for labor markets to efficiently match workers and firms. Global collaboration will be crucial in supporting the most vulnerable developing economies, including through multilateral interventions, concessional financing, and, for countries embroiled in active conflicts, emergency relief and support.
Cardano (ADAUSD) climbed amidst tight trading activities in the crypto market, up by 1.05% in the past 24 hours, showing resilience near key support.
The price ticked up on Sunday amidst negative movements in the global crypto market. The gain has reduced its negative movement in the week to 1%. Cardano is showing strength with a $70 million ADA treasury push and a bullish December setup, but it faces key resistance amidst competing traders.
The token is trading at $0.4165 at the time of filing the report on Sunday, gaining more than 1% on the day as volume traded reached $359.252 million. The token is in a notable correction from its November highs. Recent trading activity reflects pronounced investor caution. Over a 30-day period, ADA has declined approximately 15%, mirroring the broader pressure on risk assets from macroeconomic uncertainties.
Sentiment trades mixed, as retail and mid-sized investors are accumulating at lows, but large holders remain sceptical. Cardano’s privacy-centric Midnight Network went live after years of development, introducing NIGHT – the first native asset on Cardano.
According to crypto analysts, Short-term speculation around NIGHT airdrops and interoperability boosted ADA demand. ADA rebounded from $0.371–$0.416 after testing an ascending trend line connecting 2023–2025 lows. Traders interpreted the bounce as a bullish divergence, but ADA remains below critical resistance of $0.5113 and its 200-day EMA of $0.68.
ADA’s minor rally reflects optimism around Midnight’s launch and oversold technicals, but scepticism about its ecosystem impact and whale selling caps upside. While the price surges, analysts stated that Cardano balances technical hope against macroeconomic headwinds, with Midnight’s adoption trajectory and $0.51 resistance serving as critical watch points.
While governance upgrades signal maturing decentralisation, crypto analysts are still querying whether ADA can leverage these developments to reverse its 2025 underperformance.
The National Drug Law Enforcement Agency has recovered over 7.6 million pills of tramadol and a total of 76,273.4 kilograms of different strains of cannabis.
The agency’s spokesman, Femi Babafemi, said this in a statement on Sunday in Abuja. Mr Babafemi said that the drugs, including Colorado, Loud and Skunks, had several members of drug trafficking organisations linked to the seizures arrested.
He said that out of the total opioids seized during the raids, not less than 3,874,000 pills of tramadol, 225mg and 100mg, and others, as well as 252.2litres of codeine syrup were recovered. He said that they were recovered from a warehouse at Oko market, Asaba, Delta, on Saturday. He also said that no fewer than 1.2 million tablets of tramadol 225mg were seized from a suspect on December 3.
This, he said, was when NDLEA operatives on patrol at Orogwe, along the Onitsha-Owerri road, Imo, intercepted his vehicle conveying the consignment, which was loaded at Aba, Abia, and heading to Onitsha, Anambra. Meanwhile, in Adamawa, NDLEA officers on December 1 intercepted a Toyota Hiace bus marked MGU 554 XB along Maraba-Mubi, coming from Jos, Plateau state, and heading to Mubi, with a total of 1,577,112 capsules of tramadol.
“Other drugs intercepted were Exol-5 tablets, all concealed inside jumbo bags mixed with new rubber sandals and slippers. Two suspects were arrested in connection with the seizure. Similarly, another 27-year-old suspect was nabbed along Zaria-Kano road, Kano state, with 197,000 pills of exol-5,” he said.
The NDLEA chairman, Buba Marwa, commended the officers and men of the SOU commands in Delta, Adamawa, Imo, Ondo, Lagos, and Kano for the arrests and seizures. Mr Marwa said that their operational successes, along with those of their compatriots across the country, especially their balanced approach to drug supply reduction and drug demand reduction, were well appreciated. NAN
The Presidential Enabling Business Environment Council (PEBEC) has released the 2025 Subnational Ease of Doing Business (EoDB) Report, with Lagos emerging as the best-performing state, scoring 85.6 per cent.
The report released by the director-general of PEBEC, Zahrah Mustapha-Audu, has Kaduna in second position with 65.1 per cent. Oyo, FCT, and Ogun rounded up the top five with scores of 62.7 per cent, 61.0 per cent, and 59.9 per cent, respectively. Others include Enugu (56.2 per cent) in sixth position, with Plateau (56.2 per cent), Ekiti (55.8 per cent), Kano (54.8 per cent), and Nasarawa (53.4 per cent) rounding out the top 10 states.
The EoDB report is a comprehensive data-driven assessment of how Nigeria’s 36 states and the FCT are shaping business competitiveness through regulation, infrastructure, and administrative efficiency.
The report assesses performance across 16 indicators and 36 sub-metrics covering electricity, infrastructure, digital connectivity, land administration, taxation, trade logistics, justice delivery, investor support and skilled labour readiness.
According to the DG, these states distinguished themselves through consistent reform momentum, improved digital processes, and more predictable regulatory environments. “The 2025 Report also highlights five priority interventions states can implement immediately. These include establishing investor aftercare systems, strengthening MSME credit enablement, harmonising interstate trade rules, upgrading commercial justice processes, and improving power reliability for industrial clusters,” she said.
According to her, PEBEC will continue to support state-led reform adoption, particularly under the $750 million State Action on Business Enabling Reforms (SABER) programme. She added that “the 2025 Subnational EoDB Report provides a critical foundation for policy action, investment decisions, and long-term competitiveness across Nigeria.”
The DG said the Subnational Ease of Doing Business Report is available for download at www.pebec.gov.ng/reports
PEBEC had earlier released its 2025 Business Facilitation Act (BFA) Performance Report, covering MDAs’ performance from January to October. This performance report is part of the council’s effort to track and measure the compliance of federal government MDAs with the BFA’s requirements on promoting Transparency and Efficiency of government-delivered services to the business community.
The report presents a data-driven assessment of 69 priority MDAs, drawing on monthly compliance submissions, independent mystery shopping, website audits, ReportGov analytics, and targeted process-verification exercises.
According to the report, the top five performing MDAs include the Nigerian Content Development and Monitoring Board (NCDMB), with an impressive 90.6 per cent score, followed by the National Drug Law Enforcement Agency (NDLEA) at 89 per cent. The Nigeria Customs Service (NCS), ranks third with 86.6percent, the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) and Nigerian Ports Authority (NPA) secured the fourth and fifth positions, scoring 85.3 per cent and 84.2 per cent, respectively.
PEBEC, currently chaired by Vice President Kashim Shettima, was established in July 2016 by the federal government to oversee Nigeria’s business environment intervention. It has a dual mandate of removing bureaucratic and legislative constraints to doing business and improving the perception of the ease of doing business in Nigeria. NAN
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