Oil and Gas
Global oil demand growth to slow in 2025 – IEA report
Global oil demand growth is expected to slow this year as weaker economic conditions and sluggish non-OECD deliveries weigh on consumption, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday.
According to the IEA’s August Oil Market Report, global oil demand growth is projected to slow to 680,000 barrels per day (bpd) year-on-year in 2025, from 860,000 bpd last year, largely due to a weaker economic outlook. The projection is 20,000 bpd lower than the Agency’s previous forecast, mainly because non-OECD deliveries continue to fall short of expectations. Demand growth is expected to remain roughly the same in 2026, at 700,000 bpd.
The slowdown is most visible in China, India, and Brazil, the frontrunners in global demand growth in both 2024 and 2025, after June and July delivery data came in weaker than expected, the IEA said. The three countries have also been hit with US trade tariffs of up to 50%, adding to the economic headwinds for emerging markets. Nigeria has recently joined these non-OECD heavyweights, with demand boosted by a sharp pickup in economic activity from wide-ranging domestic reforms. The West African country’s 100,000-bpd increase in 2025 is second only to India’s gains.
The report also shows that global oil supply was flat in July at 105.6 million bpd, as a 230,000-bpd drop in OPEC+ output was offset by an equal increase from non-OPEC+ producers. Saudi Arabia led OPEC+ losses, with output falling 280,000 bpd from its June high, while Iran and the United Arab Emirates posted the largest gains.
Non-OPEC+ production rose by 230,000 bpd, supported by the return of Canadian heavy oil from maintenance. Global oil output in July was 2.2 million bpd higher year-on-year, with non-OPEC+ accounting for 1.3 million bpd of the increase. The report noted that on Aug. 3, the OPEC+ group of eight countries announced plans to raise output by 547,000 bpd in September, completing the unwinding of 2.2 million bpd of voluntary cuts agreed to in November 2023 and adding a 300,000 bpd quota increase for the United Arab Emirates. Based on the latest agreement and incorporating compensation cuts, total OPEC+ production in September is forecast at 43.3 million bpd, 630,000 bpd above July levels, with Saudi Arabia accounting for 460,000 bpd of the increase. The group marked a milestone by ending the cuts a year ahead of schedule and removing the first of three tranches totaling about 5.86 million bpd agreed to since 2022. Two additional rounds of supply reductions remain, raising the prospect of more barrels coming to market later this year or in 2026. Despite unwinding nearly 1.4 million bpd of cuts on paper from April to July, only about 640,000 bpd of additional crude actually reached the market, with Saudi Arabia providing 70% of the increase.
Oil and Gas
Oil steady after Ukraine strike on Russian oil pipeline does not disrupt supply
Oil prices were steady on Thursday, with the market focused on Ukraine’s attacks on Russian oil assets, while stalled peace talks tempered expectations of a deal restoring Russian oil flows. Brent crude rose 35 cents, or 0.6%, to $63.02 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate rose 41 cents, or 0.7%, to $59.36. Ukraine hit the Druzhba oil pipeline in Russia’s central Tambov region, a Ukrainian military intelligence source said on Wednesday, the fifth attack on the pipeline that sends Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia.
The pipeline operator and Hungary’s oil and gas company later said supplies were moving through the pipeline as normal. “Ukraine’s drone campaign against Russian refining infrastructure has shifted into a more sustained and strategically coordinated phase,” consultancy Kpler said in a research report.
This has pushed Russian refining throughput down to around 5 million barrels per day between September and November, a 335,000 bpd year-on-year decline, with gasoline hit hardest and gasoil output also materially weaker,” the report added. The perception that progress on a peace plan for Ukraine was stalling also supported prices, after U.S. President Donald Trump’s representatives emerged from peace talks with the Kremlin with no specific breakthroughs on ending the war.
“War and politics, balanced against comfortable stocks, expected supply surplus, and OPEC’s market-share strategy, keep Brent in the $60–$70 range for now,” said PVM analysts. Previously, expectations of an end to the war had pressured prices lower, as traders anticipated a deal would allow Russian oil back into an already oversupplied global market.
Meanwhile, U.S. crude and fuel inventories rose last week as refining activity picked up, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. Crude inventories rose by 574,000 barrels to 427.5 million barrels in the week ended November 28, the EIA said, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for an 821,000-barrel draw.
Fitch Ratings on Thursday cut its 2025-2027 oil price assumptions to reflect market oversupply and production growth that is expected to outstrip demand.
Oil and Gas
Army destroys seven illegal oil refining sites, arrest 4, recover 109,000 ltrs of stolen products
Soldiers from the 6 Division, Nigerian Army, Port Harcourt, Rivers State, have destroyed seven illegal crude oil refining sites in its sustained efforts in the Niger Delta Region. The soldiers during the operation arrested four suspects and recovered 109,000 liters of stolen petroleum products. Lieutenant Colonel Jonah Danjuma, Acting Deputy Director, 6 Division Army Public Relations, in a statement in Port Harcourt, said success was in a sustained operation against oil theft. Danjuma said: “In the latest operations conducted with other security agencies between 10 and 23 November 2025, several illegal refining sites were taken out, four suspected oil thieves were arrested with over 109,000 litres of stolen products recovered across the NDR. “These include over 88,000 litres of stolen crude oil and 21,355 litres of illegally refined Automotive Gasoline Oil (AGO). The total cost of the products recovered amounted to over One Hundred and Fifty Million Naira only.”
Danjuma disclosed that the operations were conducted in Rivers, Akwa Ibom and Delta State. He said: “Operations conducted in Rivers State around Okolomade in Ahoada West Local Government Area (LGA) led to the deactivation of three illegal refining sites, three big pots, four big receivers and three big coolants, with over 40,000 litres of stolen crude and 20,000 litres of illegally refined AGO recovered. At the fringes of the Imo River, troops discovered three illegal refining sites, eight drum pots, seven drum receivers, one fibre boat and over 14,700 litres of stolen crude around Asa, Obeakpo, Lekuma and Abiama in Oyigbo LGA”.
He said “Relatedly, following credible intelligence, troops stormed a compound at Abuloma in Okrika LGA, where they discovered about 1,050 sacks filled with over 32,000 litres of stolen crude. At Abonnema Creek in Akuku-Toru LGA, troops intercepted a Cotonou boat loaded with 25 sacks filled with over 1,000 litres of illegally refined AGO. Also, in Akwa Ibom State, troops conducted a raid on a suspected storage facility at Ikot Akpan, Ekparakwa along the Abak–Ikot Abasi road in Abak LGA. During the operations, over 520 litres of illegally refined AGO stored in a drum and ten jerricans, as well as several empty jerricans, were recovered.
In Delta State, troops conducted an operation at DAEWOO yard within Ekpan area in Uvwie LGA. On sighting troops, the suspected oil thieves fled into nearby creeks with wooden boats loaded with jerricans. Troops also discovered three 25-litre jerricans filled with 75 litres of crude oil. Meanwhile, in Bayelsa State, troops have continued to deny criminal elements freedom of action.” The General Officer Commanding (GOC), 6 Division, Nigerian Army, Major General Emmanuel Emekah, who commended the troops for their resilience charged them to sustain the tempo in ensuring that economic saboteurs are effectively denied freedom of action in the NDR.
Oil and Gas
NNPCL declares N5.4 trn profit for 2024, targets 3m bpd output by 2030
Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd) has announced that it recorded a Profit After Tax of N5.4 trillion from total revenue of N45.1 trillion for the full year ended 2024. This is contained in a statement signed by the company’s Chief Corporate Communications Officer, Andy Odeh, on Monday. According to the statement, “The results, shared during its earnings call with analysts, underscore a year of strong operational delivery.” Odeh also said the Company unveiled its strategic roadmap to drive sustained growth and support Nigeria’s energy transition through 2030.
“The plan prioritises increased oil and gas production and outlines a $60 billion investment pipeline across the energy value chain,” NNPC Ltd stated. NNPC Ltd’s results, the statement said, highlight a surge in revenues and profits, signalling improved cost discipline, enhanced asset performance, and growing operational stability. NNPC according to the financials made a revenue of N45.1 trillion representing 88 per cent year-on-year growth. It said that Profit After Tax was N5.4 trillion, 64 per cent year-on-year growth; earnings per share stood at N27.07, 64 per cent year-on-year growth
Bashir Bayo Ojulari, Group Chief Executive Officer of NNPC said “the earnings highlight the positive momentum of our ongoing transformation and the unwavering commitment of our workforce,” said. “They offer a solid foundation for the ambitious growth ahead, in line with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s mandate, and reaffirm our commitment to delivering value to Nigerians.”
NNPC Limited, the statement said, is accelerating investments across upstream operations, gas infrastructure, and clean energy to extend growth into the next decade. Key strategic targets include: increasing crude oil production to 2 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2027 and 3 million bpd by 2030; growing natural gas production to 10 bcf/d by 2027 and 12 bcf/d by 2030 and completing major gas infrastructure projects such as Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano (AKK), Escravos-Lagos Pipeline System (ELPS) and Obiafu-Obrikom-Oben (OB3) pipelines to strengthen domestic supply and regional integration and Mobilising $60 billion in investments across the upstream, midstream, and downstream sectors by 2030.
“Our transformation is anchored on transparency, innovation, and disciplined growth,” Ojulari added. “We are positioning NNPC Limited as a globally competitive energy company capable of delivering sustainable returns while powering the future of Nigeria and Africa.”
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