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Nigeria signs deepwater oil contract with TotalEnergies as oil rises on weaker dollar and Russian supply disruptions

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Nigeria has signed a production-sharing contract (PSC) with TotalEnergies and local firm South Atlantic Petroleum for two offshore blocks, in a step to boost exploration and attract investment under its new oil framework just as oil prices rose more than 1% on Monday on concerns that intensifying airstrikes in Russia and Ukraine could lead to supply disruptions, while a weaker dollar lent additional support to benchmarks. Brent crude futures were up 70 cents, or 1%, at $68.18 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose by 76 cents, or 1.2%, to $64.77. Trading is expected to be muted because of a U.S. public holiday. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Sunday vowed to retaliate against Russian drone strikes on power facilities in his country’s north and south, and ordered more strikes deep inside Russia.
Nigeria, Africa’s largest oil producer, is seeking to revitalize its upstream sector amid global energy transition pressures and declining investment in fossil fuels. The deal covers petroleum prospecting licences 2000 and 2001, awarded during the 2024 licensing round, and spans about 2,000 square km (772 square miles) in the Niger Delta Basin. TotalEnergies holds an 80% contractor interest, while Sapetro holds 20%, the upstream oil regulator said on Monday. “This PSC signals the start of a committed work programme that will help us unlock the untapped geological potential of our deepwater, expand our reserves, boost production, and strengthen Nigeria’s energy security,” said Gbenga Komolafe, Chief Executive of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission. The contract includes provisions for signature and production bonuses, minimum work guarantees, profit-sharing, and compliance with host community development obligations. It also outlines environmental safeguards, including decommissioning and remediation funds. Meanwhile Three and a half years into the war, both Russia and Ukraine have intensified airstrikes in recent weeks, even as efforts are underway to resolve the crisis.
Markets remain concerned about Russian oil flows, with weekly shipments from its ports dropping to a four-week low of 2.72 million barrels per day (bpd), according to tanker tracker data cited by ANZ analysts. Elsewhere, the U.S. labour market report this week will give a read on the economy’s health and test investor confidence that interest rate cuts are coming soon, a view that has strengthened appetite for riskier assets such as commodities. Ahead of the data, the dollar was close to a five-week low on Monday, making oil less expensive for buyers using other currencies. Investors were also focused on Beijing, where Chinese President Xi Jinping, Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi are attending a regional summit. China’s manufacturing activity expanded at the quickest pace in August in five months, a private-sector survey showed on Monday. That helped lend support to oil and copper prices, SEB commodities analyst Bjarne Schieldrop said in a note to clients on Monday. Also on the radar was an OPEC+ meeting on September 7. “The next key fundamental question is whether OPEC+ oil producers will continue to raise the group’s output targets beyond September, with a decision due within days,” analyst Tim Evans said in the newsletter Evans on Energy.
Coming out of the summer season, oil inventories should rise in the last quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, HSBC analysts said in a note, with a surplus of 1.6 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter. Higher OPEC+ supply and rising stockpiles could keep pressure on oil prices after both Brent and WTI registered their first monthly declines in four months in August, losing 6% or more. “Oil practitioners will continue to curb their enthusiasm,” PVM analyst John Evans said in a note, citing the increased OPEC+ supply.

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Oil steady after Ukraine strike on Russian oil pipeline does not disrupt supply

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Oil prices were steady on Thursday, with the market focused on Ukraine’s attacks on Russian oil assets, while stalled peace talks tempered expectations of a deal restoring Russian oil flows. Brent crude rose 35 cents, or 0.6%, to $63.02 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate rose 41 cents, or 0.7%, to $59.36. Ukraine hit the Druzhba oil pipeline in Russia’s central Tambov region, a Ukrainian military intelligence source said on Wednesday, the fifth attack on the pipeline that sends Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia.

The pipeline operator and Hungary’s oil and gas company later said supplies were moving through the pipeline as normal. “Ukraine’s drone campaign against Russian refining infrastructure has shifted into a more sustained and strategically coordinated phase,” consultancy Kpler said in a research report.

This has pushed Russian refining throughput down to around 5 million barrels per day between September and November, a 335,000 bpd year-on-year decline, with gasoline hit hardest and gasoil output also materially weaker,” the report added. The perception that progress on a peace plan for Ukraine was stalling also supported prices, after U.S. President Donald Trump’s representatives emerged from peace talks with the Kremlin with no specific breakthroughs on ending the war.

“War and politics, balanced against comfortable stocks, expected supply surplus, and OPEC’s market-share strategy, keep Brent in the $60–$70 range for now,” said PVM analysts. Previously, expectations of an end to the war had pressured prices lower, as traders anticipated a deal would allow Russian oil back into an already oversupplied global market.

Meanwhile, U.S. crude and fuel inventories rose last week as refining activity picked up, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. Crude inventories rose by 574,000 barrels to 427.5 million barrels in the week ended November 28, the EIA said, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for an 821,000-barrel draw.
Fitch Ratings on Thursday cut its 2025-2027 oil price assumptions to reflect market oversupply and production growth that is expected to outstrip demand.

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Army destroys seven illegal oil refining sites, arrest 4, recover 109,000 ltrs of stolen products 

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Soldiers from the 6 Division, Nigerian Army, Port Harcourt, Rivers State, have destroyed seven illegal crude oil refining sites in its sustained efforts in the Niger Delta Region. The soldiers during the operation arrested four suspects and recovered 109,000 liters of stolen petroleum products. Lieutenant Colonel Jonah Danjuma, Acting Deputy Director, 6 Division Army Public Relations, in a statement in Port Harcourt, said success was in a sustained operation against oil theft. Danjuma said: “In the latest operations conducted with other security agencies between 10 and 23 November 2025, several illegal refining sites were taken out, four suspected oil thieves were arrested with over 109,000 litres of stolen products recovered across the NDR. “These include over 88,000 litres of stolen crude oil and 21,355 litres of illegally refined Automotive Gasoline Oil (AGO). The total cost of the products recovered amounted to over One Hundred and Fifty Million Naira only.”

Danjuma disclosed that the operations were conducted in Rivers, Akwa Ibom and Delta State. He said: “Operations conducted in Rivers State around Okolomade in Ahoada West Local Government Area (LGA) led to the deactivation of three illegal refining sites, three big pots, four big receivers and three big coolants, with over 40,000 litres of stolen crude and 20,000 litres of illegally refined AGO recovered. At the fringes of the Imo River, troops discovered three illegal refining sites, eight drum pots, seven drum receivers, one fibre boat and over 14,700 litres of stolen crude around Asa, Obeakpo, Lekuma and Abiama in Oyigbo LGA”.

He said “Relatedly, following credible intelligence, troops stormed a compound at Abuloma in Okrika LGA, where they discovered about 1,050 sacks filled with over 32,000 litres of stolen crude. At Abonnema Creek in Akuku-Toru LGA, troops intercepted a Cotonou boat loaded with 25 sacks filled with over 1,000 litres of illegally refined AGO. Also, in Akwa Ibom State, troops conducted a raid on a suspected storage facility at Ikot Akpan, Ekparakwa along the Abak–Ikot Abasi road in Abak LGA. During the operations, over 520 litres of illegally refined AGO stored in a drum and ten jerricans, as well as several empty jerricans, were recovered.

In Delta State, troops conducted an operation at DAEWOO yard within Ekpan area in Uvwie LGA. On sighting troops, the suspected oil thieves fled into nearby creeks with wooden boats loaded with jerricans. Troops also discovered three 25-litre jerricans filled with 75 litres of crude oil. Meanwhile, in Bayelsa State, troops have continued to deny criminal elements freedom of action.” The General Officer Commanding (GOC), 6 Division, Nigerian Army, Major General Emmanuel Emekah, who commended the troops for their resilience charged them to sustain the tempo in ensuring that economic saboteurs are effectively denied freedom of action in the NDR.

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NNPCL declares N5.4 trn profit for 2024, targets 3m bpd output by 2030

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Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd) has announced that it recorded a Profit After Tax of N5.4 trillion from total revenue of N45.1 trillion for the full year ended 2024. This is contained in a statement signed by the company’s Chief Corporate Communications Officer, Andy Odeh, on Monday. According to the statement, “The results, shared during its earnings call with analysts, underscore a year of strong operational delivery.”  Odeh also said the Company unveiled its strategic roadmap to drive sustained growth and support Nigeria’s energy transition through 2030.

“The plan prioritises increased oil and gas production and outlines a $60 billion investment pipeline across the energy value chain,” NNPC Ltd stated. NNPC Ltd’s results, the statement said, highlight a surge in revenues and profits, signalling improved cost discipline, enhanced asset performance, and growing operational stability. NNPC according to the financials made a revenue of N45.1 trillion representing 88 per cent year-on-year growth. It said that Profit After Tax was N5.4 trillion, 64 per cent year-on-year growth; earnings per share stood at N27.07, 64 per cent year-on-year growth

Bashir Bayo Ojulari, Group Chief Executive Officer of NNPC said “the earnings highlight the positive momentum of our ongoing transformation and the unwavering commitment of our workforce,” said. “They offer a solid foundation for the ambitious growth ahead, in line with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s mandate, and reaffirm our commitment to delivering value to Nigerians.”

NNPC Limited, the statement said, is accelerating investments across upstream operations, gas infrastructure, and clean energy to extend growth into the next decade. Key strategic targets include: increasing crude oil production to 2 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2027 and 3 million bpd by 2030; growing natural gas production to 10 bcf/d by 2027 and 12 bcf/d by 2030 and completing major gas infrastructure projects such as Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano (AKK), Escravos-Lagos Pipeline System (ELPS) and Obiafu-Obrikom-Oben (OB3) pipelines to strengthen domestic supply and regional integration and Mobilising $60 billion in investments across the upstream, midstream, and downstream sectors by 2030.

“Our transformation is anchored on transparency, innovation, and disciplined growth,” Ojulari added. “We are positioning NNPC Limited as a globally competitive energy company capable of delivering sustainable returns while powering the future of Nigeria and Africa.”

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