Oil recoups some losses after US-China trade tensions

Oil prices rose on Monday after hitting five-month lows in the previous session, as investors focused on potential talks between the presidents of the United States and China that could ease trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies. Brent crude futures rose 65 cents, or 1%, to $63.38 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $59.54 a barrel, up 64 cents, or 1.1%. Both contracts lost around 4% on Friday to settle at their lowest since May. Market sentiment was also boosted by Palestinian militant group Hamas freeing the last 20 surviving Israeli hostages on Monday under a U.S.-brokered ceasefire deal. That was seen as a big step towards ending two years of war in Gaza as U.S. President Donald Trump proclaimed the “historic dawn of a new Middle East.”
“Last week’s price meltdown was largely on the back of ceasefire in Gaza and return of U.S.-China trade volatility ahead of the November 10 trade truce deadline,” DBS energy analyst Suvro Sarkar said. The selloff in markets now looked to be capped by Washington and Beijing’s willingness to negotiate, he said, adding the near-term outlook hinged on the eventual outcome of the trade talks. Trade tensions flared up last week after China expanded its rare earth export controls. In response, U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday said he would impose 100 per cent tariffs on China’s U.S.-bound exports. President Trump remains on track to meet Chinese leader Xi Jinping in South Korea in late October, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Monday, adding there were substantial communications between the two sides over the weekend and more meetings were expected.
Oil prices tumbled in March and April at the height of trade tensions between the two countries. On the demand side, China’s crude imports in September rose 3.9% from a year earlier to 11.5 million barrels per day, customs data showed. Meanwhile, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries kept its relatively high global oil demand growth forecasts unchanged for this year and next. In a monthly report on Monday, OPEC implied the oil market will see a much smaller supply deficit in 2026 as the wider OPEC+ group pushes ahead with output increases.