Food inflationary pressure re-emerges, food security need serious attention

Nigerians are already celebrating the November drop in inflation rate to 14.45% from the October figure of 16.05 %. Government agents and policy apologist have joined the fray of posting in social media of public sector policy effectiveness.

While one can not deny the euphoria of unalloyed loyalty to their principals, the fact remains that the actual fact behind the November inflation report as usual is being down played.

One of the social media post said “while presenting the 2025 budget on December 18th, 2024, President Tinubu set an ambitious inflation target of 15% from the then 34% inflation rate and exchange rate of N1,500 by December 2025. Today December 15th, 2025, the headline inflation rate has eased to 14.45% and official foreign exchange rate N1,450. That’s the power of vision and careful economic planning”.

Success or failure of government policies is not measured by absolute figures as statistical data can conceal very serious defect in the system. It is the impact of policy on the welfare of the individual that make policy worth celebrating. Governance is about citizens welfare, in the last two years by how much in welfare index has the Nigerian populace improved? Rather we continue to hear cries on increase in poverty.

There is no denying the fact that rate of general change in prices of goods and services in the market place has decelerated, but for the average citizen the prices at which they get goods and services at shops and market place remain high. What policy makers should pay attention to is the fact behind the figure in the report.

In a note to its customers Coronation Securities said “the headline inflation decelerated noticeably in November 2025, easing to 14.45% y/y from 16.05% in October by 160 basis point.

“This marks the eighth consecutive month of disinflation, underscoring a sustained moderation in year-on-year price pressures, largely reflecting favourable base effects and the lagged impact of earlier monetary tightening.

“In contrast, on a month-on-month basis, headline inflation ticked up to 1.22%, up from 0.93% in October (+29bps), extending the upward momentum observed in recent months. This m/m uptick was primarily driven by a sharp acceleration in food inflation, which more than offset the relative moderation in core inflation components.

“The rise in food prices reflects seasonal supply dynamics, as the peak harvest period begins to wane, alongside heightened festive-season demand, which has intensified pressure on food distribution, transportation, and storage costs. This implies that year in year out food inflation ticked up in festive periods. This calls for policy attention to ensure stable prices of food items all year round.

Coronation further said “Food inflation eased by 203bps to 11.08% y/y in November from 13.12% in October, reflecting favourable base effects. However, on a month-on-month basis, food inflation rebounded to 1.13% from –0.37% (+149bps), as seasonal harvest gains began to wane and festive demand strengthened.

“The m/m increase was driven by higher prices of onions, dried tomatoes, cassava, periwinkle, pepper, eggs, crayfish, and egusi, among others. Imported food inflation also edged up to 0.60% m/m from 0.35%, supported by a 1.72% m/m depreciation of the Naira to ₦1,446.74/US$1, although exchange-rate pass-through remained relatively contained.

“Core inflation eased to 18.04% y/y in November (–65bps from October), reflecting favourable base effects. On a month-on-month basis, core inflation softened to 1.42%, down 13bps, indicating a modest deceleration in underlying price momentum.

“The m/m deceleration reflects mixed price dynamics across core components. Upward pressure persisted in health
(2.71% vs. 0.57%), transport (2.94% vs. 2.92%), restaurant and accommodation services (2.15% vs. 2.10%), services (1.78% vs. 1.52%), and recreation, sport and culture (1.58% vs. 0.80%), largely driven by higher logistics and service delivery costs.

“These pressures were partially offset by slower price increases in furnishings and household maintenance (0.19% vs. 0.91%), clothing and footwear (0.10% vs. 0.38%), housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels (1.24% vs. 2.86%), education (0.02% vs. 0.78%), ICT (0.12% vs. 0.54%), and insurance and financial services (0.18% vs. 1.71%). Overall,
core inflation remains sticky, despite the y/y moderation, pointing to continued structural and cost-driven pressures.

“At the sub-national level, Rivers recorded the highest inflation rate on a year-on-year (17.78%), followed by Ogun (17.65%), Ekiti (16.77%), indicating stronger price pressures. Meanwhile, Plateau (9.13%), Kebbi (10.32%), and Katsina (10.60) recorded the lowest headline inflation rates.

On a month-on-month basis, Bayelsa (6.58%), Gombe (5.11%), and Edo (4.45%) experienced the highest increases in inflation, while Plateau (-2.54%), Delta (-2.38%), and Kaduna (-2.24%) recorded the slowest increases”. Nigeria must pay attention to food security.