OPEC crude oil production drops 135,000 barrels per day in January, oil prices ease over weak demand

Crude oil production by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) fell by 135,000 barrels per day (bpd) in January compared to December 2025, reaching around 28.45 million bpd, according to the group’s latest Monthly Oil Market Report.

Meanwhile Oil prices eased slightly in the global commodity market on Thursday as weak demand signals from the world’s two largest oil consumers, the US and China, outweighed geopolitical risk premiums linked to US-Iran negotiations.

International benchmark Brent crude traded at $69.11 per barrel, down 0.39% from the previous close of $69.38. US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell 0.37% to $64.61 per barrel, compared with $64.85 in the previous session.

Prices came under pressure after US crude and gasoline inventories posted a much larger-than-expected increase, raising concerns over demand in the world’s biggest oil consumer.

According to data released by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), US commercial crude oil inventories rose by around 8.5 million barrels in the week ending Feb. 6, far exceeding market expectations of about 700,000 barrels.

Gasoline inventories also increased by roughly 1.2 million barrels during the same period. The demand outlook was also clouded by economic data from China, the world’s second-largest oil consumer.

Data showed consumer price growth slowed in January, while producer prices extended their declines, highlighting persistent deflationary pressures.

China’s consumer price index rose 0.2% year-on-year, below expectations, while the producer price index fell 1.4%. Analysts said the figures suggested cautious consumer spending and reinforced concerns over weak fuel demand, weighing on oil prices.

Expectations of increased travel and fuel consumption ahead of China’s Lunar New Year provided some support to the market, though recent economic indicators pointed to sluggish growth.

Geopolitical developments offered a limited offset to the demand-driven pressure. US President Donald Trump said there was no concrete outcome from his meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, but emphasized that negotiations with Iran should continue.

However, Trump told Axios on Tuesday that he was considering deploying a second aircraft carrier strike group to the region in preparations for possible military action if talks with Iran fail.

US and Iranian officials met in Oman on Feb. 6 and described the talks as constructive, though lingering tensions between the two sides have kept a risk premium in oil prices.

The largest output increase came from Iraq, while Venezuela recorded the biggest decline last month. Iraq’s daily oil production increased by 38,000 barrels to 4.2 million barrels, while Venezuela’s output declined by 87,000 barrels per day to 830,000 barrels in January.

Total crude production by the OPEC+ alliance, comprising OPEC members and some major non-OPEC producers, fell by 439,000 bpd to 42.45 million bpd during the same period.

OPEC kept its global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 unchanged, projecting an increase of 1.38 million bpd year-on-year, bringing total demand to 106.5 million bpd.

Most of the growth is expected to come from non-OECD countries, where demand is seen rising by around 1.23 million bpd to 60.5 million bpd, led by China, Asian countries and Middle East.

Demand in OECD countries is projected to rise by just 150,000 bpd to 46.06 million bpd, driven mainly by OECD Americas and supported by OECD Europe and OECD Asia-Pacific.

For 2027, OPEC expects demand to grow by around 1.34 million bpd, reaching 107.86 million bpd. This is expected to reach 61.69 million bpd in non-OECD countries, with an increase of 1.24 million bpd, and 46.16 million bpd in OECD countries, with a rise of 110,000 bpd.