Analysis
Africa must stop buying what it already has
By Sidi Ould Tah
Across Africa today, a quiet tragedy plays out every day. It is not the scarcity of resources or even a lack of ambition that holds us back. It is the deeper, more corrosive failure to fully believe in ourselves – to trust what Africa can produce, to invest in what Africans can create, and to trade first and foremost with one another. Throughout the continent, the evidence is striking. Angola, for instance, imports $500 million worth of beef every year, even as Namibia – right next door – produces EU-grade beef at lower cost. Malawi purchases $48 million worth of maize every year, while Tanzania, a few hundred kilometers away, exports maize at nearly half that price. Zambia imports 360 million liters of fuel annually, despite Angola offering supply at prices up to 40% cheaper.
These are not isolated inefficiencies; they are symptoms of a systemic failure – one that cuts across our Regional Economic Communities (RECs). It is a failure of coordination, infrastructure, political will, and above all, of trust. Every year, Southern Africa alone forfeits an estimated $32 billion in potential intra-African trade due to these dysfunctions. According to the African Export–Import Bank’s 2024 Intra-African Trade Report, intra-African trade remains stuck at around 15% of total African trade volumes, compared to over 60% in the European Union and nearly 50% in Asia. The same pattern persists across West, Central, East, and North Africa. We have the resources. We have the markets. We have the demographics. Yet, we remain trapped in a pattern of looking outward for what we already possess.
The cost of this failure is profound. It manifests in lost jobs for our youth, inflated food and energy prices for our families, wasted foreign exchange reserves, and increased vulnerability to global shocks. In the face of a fragmenting global economy – where supply chains are being redrawn, financial conditions are tightening, and climate risks are escalating – Africa’s dependency model is becoming ever more untenable. Africa’s macroeconomic context today is precarious but not hopeless. According to the IMF’s April 2025 World Economic Outlook, the continent’s GDP growth slowed to 3.2% in 2024, down from 3.8% the previous year. Public debt remains elevated at around 60% of GDP for Sub-Saharan Africa. Inflation, although moderating, still averages 12.5%. Africa continues to pay the highest risk premiums globally to access capital markets, spending five times more on debt service relative to concessional finance opportunities.
But these macro indicators tell only a part of the story. The real challenge lies deeper: a fragmented economic space, underdeveloped regional value chains, and a structural infrastructure financing gap estimated by the African Development Bank (AfDB) at $68–108 billion annually. If we do not fix these underlying problems, no amount of external financing will sustainably change our trajectory. But there are rays of hope already on the horizon. Across the Regional Economic Communities, significant momentum is emerging. In ECOWAS, Nigeria’s energy diversification, Ghana’s fiscal stabilization, and Côte d’Ivoire’s agribusiness expansion stand out. In the East African Community, Kenya’s leadership in digital finance and Tanzania’s agricultural productivity gains are transforming local markets. In COMESA, Rwanda’s technology innovation and Ethiopia’s industrial park development signal industrial drive. In the Arab Maghreb Union, Egypt’s renewable energy capacity and Morocco’s manufacturing growth lead continental benchmarks. Meanwhile, SADC’s infrastructure corridors and green energy projects are reshaping trade connectivity. In ECCAS, investments in cross-border agriculture and logistics are strengthening food security.
These examples are not isolated – they reveal a broader continental ambition: that Africa already holds the solutions it seeks externally, if only it mobilizes them internally. These realities echo the aspirations enshrined in the African Union’s Agenda 2063 – to build “an integrated, prosperous and peaceful Africa, driven by its own citizens and representing a dynamic force in the global arena.” As Kwame Nkrumah, one of Africa’s foremost founding fathers, profoundly reminded us: “It is clear that we must find an African solution to our problems, and that this can only be found in African unity.” Trade agreements alone will not deliver this unity. Connectivity is not built on paper. Trust cannot be legislated into existence. It demands investment. It demands alignment. It demands institutions that are not only technically competent, but politically committed to Africa’s sovereign, sustainable, and inclusive development.
Africa needs institutions that are fit for purpose – capable of scaling up financing to meet infrastructure gaps, driving regional project preparation, and supporting private sector growth, especially for SMEs and youth-led enterprises. We cannot afford multilateral institutions stuck in 20th-century operational models while our realities evolve in the 21st century. We cannot afford delivery delays measured in years, when demographic and climatic pressures accelerate by the day. The AfDB must lead this transformation. It must not simply lend more – it must lend smarter. It must not only catalyze finance – but foster local value addition. It must not merely align with global climate priorities – but champion African climate priorities: adaptation, resilience, and just energy transitions that deliver jobs and dignity. Africa’s recovery is not a story of isolated reformers – it is the unfolding of a continental ambition rooted in resilience, innovation, and growing ownership. From energy diversification across West Africa, to digital financial leadership in East Africa, to industrial hubs in North Africa, to regional infrastructure development in Southern Africa, African economies are laying critical foundations for sustainable growth.
Countries undertaking bold reforms and investing in youth and climate-resilient economies deserve a multilateral partner that does not wait for perfect conditions but works alongside them to consolidate progress – with speed, predictability, and respect for national systems. The African Development Bank must match their seriousness with institutional ambition, timely capital deployment, and decentralized operational delivery. It must recognize that a prosperous, integrated Africa is not only critical for continental stability but also for global economic resilience. The challenges that Africa faces – youth unemployment, fragility, energy transition, climate shocks – do not stop at its borders. Rising irregular migration to Europe, estimated at over 150,000 arrivals annually by the end of 2024, reflects a growing desperation fueled by missed development opportunities at home. The economic cost of managing irregular migration across the Mediterranean alone has exceeded €11 billion for EU countries between 2015 and 2024.
Conversely, building resilient African economies benefits the world: expanding markets, enhancing global supply chain diversification, and stabilizing geopolitical flashpoints. Non-regional member countries of the AfDB – such as the United States, China, Japan, the EU, Canada, and South Korea – recognize this, increasingly framing their African engagement around mutual prosperity rather than aid. A stronger AfDB under visionary leadership would serve not only its African shareholders but also its non-African shareholders – by creating investable, growing economies that reduce systemic risks. Development is not charity. It is a rational investment in global security and shared prosperity. And it must be treated with the seriousness it deserves. Africa’s transformation will not be financed or executed from afar. It must be driven from within. Institutions like the AfDB must be judged by their proximity to African priorities, their agility in execution, and their credibility with African citizens – not only with rating agencies or donors.
That is the vision that I am committed to. A continent where Africa trades with Africa first. A continent where youth no longer migrate for survival but innovate for prosperity. A continent where infrastructure corridors unlock opportunity, not merely extraction. A continent where development banks serve the people – not the other way around. The stakes could not be higher. According to UNCTAD’s 2024 World Investment Report, Africa’s share of global foreign direct investment remains stubbornly below 5%. Meanwhile, the financing gap for achieving the SDGs in Africa has ballooned to over $200 billion annually. If we do not act decisively – if we do not fix intra-African trade bottlenecks, close infrastructure deficits, and unleash regional markets – Africa risks missing the demographic dividend that could define the 21st century as the African century. The future is still ours to claim. But it will not be given. It must be built – by Africans, for Africans, with partners who respect our agency and match our ambition. Africa must stop buying what it already has. It must start believing in what it already is. The time to act is now.
* Dr. Sidi Ould Tah is a candidate for the AfDB Presidency with the election scheduled for May 2025.
Analysis
As EU plans Russian Gas exit, Ministers to convene in Paris to chart Africa’s export potential
In the wake of seismic shifts in the European energy landscape, the Invest in African Energy (IAE) 2026 Forum in Paris will host a Ministerial Dialogue on “Unlocking Africa’s Gas Supply for Global Energy Security.” This strategic session will examine how Africa can turn its untapped gas reserves into a reliable and sustainable source of supply. With Europe seeking to diversify away from Russian gas, the dialogue highlights both the continent’s growing role in global energy markets and the opportunity for African producers to attract long-term investment. Recent developments underscore the urgency of Africa’s role in global energy security. Last month, EU countries agreed to phase out their remaining Russian gas imports, with existing contracts benefiting from a transition period: short-term contracts can continue until June 2026, while long-term contracts will run until January 2028. In parallel, the European Commission is pushing to end Russian LNG imports by January 2027 under a broader sanctions package aimed at limiting Moscow’s energy revenues.
Africa’s role in this rebalancing is already gaining momentum. Algeria recently renewed its gas supply agreement with ČEZ Group, ensuring continued deliveries to the Czech Republic. In Libya, the National Oil Corporation (NOC) has approved new compressors at the Bahr Essalam field to boost output and reinforce flows via the Greenstream pipeline to Italy. These developments complement the Structures A&E offshore project – led by Eni and the NOC – which is expected to bring two platforms online by 2026 and produce up to 750 million cubic feet per day, supporting both domestic and European demand. West Africa is pursuing ambitious export routes as well.
Nigeria, Algeria and Niger have revived the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline (TSGP), with engineering firm Penspen commissioned earlier this year to revalidate its feasibility. The proposed $25 billion Nigeria–Morocco pipeline is also advancing as a long-term corridor linking West African gas to European markets. Meanwhile, the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim (GTA) project off Mauritania and Senegal came online earlier this year, with its first phase targeting 2.3 million tons of LNG annually. In June, the project delivered its third cargo to Belgium’s Zeebrugge terminal, marking the first African LNG shipment from GTA to Europe. Together, these milestones underscore a strategic convergence: African producers are accelerating efforts to scale up exports just as Europe intensifies its search for reliable alternatives to Russian gas.
Yet, as the ministerial session will explore, unlocking Africa’s gas supply demands sustained investment, regulatory alignment, environmental management and community engagement. For Europe, diversification of supply is a strategic necessity; for African producers, it is an opportunity to accelerate development, build infrastructure and secure long-term capital. At IAE 2026, these shifts will be examined by the officials and stakeholders driving them. The Ministerial Dialogue brings African energy leaders together with European policymakers, industry players and investors in a setting that supports practical, solution-focused discussion on supply, export strategies and future cooperation. As Europe adapts its gas strategy and African producers progress major projects, the Forum provides a direct platform for ministers to outline priorities and for investors to engage with key decision-makers.
Analysis
Authorities must respond as digital tools used by organized criminals accelerate financial crime—IMF
International Monetary Fund IMF, has said that criminals are outpacing enforcement by adapting ever faster ways to carry out digital fraud. The INF in a Blog post said the Department of Justice in June announced the largest-ever US crypto seizure: $225 million from crypto scams known as pig butchering, in which organized criminals, often across borders, use advanced technology and social engineering such as romance or investment schemes to manipulate victims. This typically involves using AI-generated profiles, encrypted messaging, and obscured blockchain transactions to hide and move stolen funds. It was a big win. Federal agents collaborated across jurisdictions and used blockchain analysis and machine learning to track thousands of wallets used to scam more than 400 victims. Yet it was also a rare victory that underscored how authorities often must play catch-up in a fast-changing digital world. And the scammers are still out there. They pick the best tools for their schemes, from laundering money through crypto and AI-enabled impersonation to producing deepfake content, encrypted apps, and decentralized exchanges. Authorities confronting anonymous, borderless threats are held back by jurisdiction, process, and legacy systems.
Annual illicit crypto activity growth has averaged about 25 percent in recent years and may have surpassed $51 billion last year, according to Chainalysis, a New York–based blockchain analysis firm specializing in helping criminal investigators trace transactions. Bad actors still depend on cash and traditional finance, and money laundering specifically relies on banks, informal money changers, and cash couriers. But the old ways are being reinforced or supercharged by technologies to thwart detection and disruption.
Encrypted messaging apps help cartels coordinate cross-border transactions. Stablecoins and lightly regulated virtual asset platforms can hide bribes and embezzled funds. Cybercriminals use AI-generated identities and bots to deceive banks and evade outdated controls. Tracking proceeds generated by organized crime is nearly impossible for underresourced agencies. AI lowers barriers to entry. Fraudsters with voice-cloning and fake-document generators bypass the verification protocols many banks and regulators still use. Their innovation is growing as compliance systems lag. Governments recognize the threats, but responses are fragmented and uneven—including in regulation of crypto exchanges. And there are delays implementing the Financial Action Task Force’s (FATF’s) “travel rule” to better identify those sending and receiving money across borders, which most digital proceeds cross.
Meanwhile, international financial flows are increasingly complicated by instant transfers on decentralized platforms and anonymity-enhancing tools. Most payments still go through multiple intermediaries, often layering cross-border transactions through antiquated correspondent banks that obscure and delay transactions while raising costs. This helps criminals exploit oversight gaps, jurisdictional coordination, and technological capacity to operate across borders, often undetected.
Regulators and fintechs should be partners, and sustained multilateral engagement should foster fast, cheap, transparent, and traceable cross-border payments. There’s a parallel narrative. Criminals exploit innovation for secrecy and speed while companies and governments test coordination to reduce vulnerabilities and modernize cross-border infrastructure. At the same time, technological implications remain underexplored with respect to anti–money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism, or AML/CFT. Singapore’s and Thailand’s linked fast payment systems, for example, enable real-time retail transfers using mobile numbers; Indonesia and Malaysia have connected QR codes for cross-border payments. Such innovations offer efficiency and inclusion yet raise new issues regarding identity verification, transaction monitoring, and regulatory coordination.
In India, the Unified payments interface enables seamless transfers across apps and platforms, highlighting the power of interoperable design. More than 18 billion monthly transactions, many across competing platforms, show how openness and standardization drive scale and inclusion. Digital payments in India grew faster when interoperability improved, especially in fragmented markets where switching was costly, IMF research shows These regional innovations and global initiatives reflect a growing understanding that fighting crime and fostering inclusion are interlinked priorities—especially as criminals speed ahead. The FATF echoed this concern, urging countries to design AML/CFT controls that support inclusion and innovation. Moreover, an FATF June recommendation marks a major advance: Requiring originator and beneficiary information for cross-border wire transfers—including those involving virtual assets—will enhance traceability across the fast-evolving digital financial ecosystem.
Efforts like these are important examples of how technology enables criminal advantage, but technology must also be part of the regulatory response.
Modernizing cross-border payment systems and reducing unintended AML/CFT barriers increasingly means focusing on transparency, interoperability, and risk-based regulation. The IMF’s work on “safe payment corridors” supports this by helping countries build trusted, secure channels for legitimate financial flows without undermining new technology. A pilot with Samoa —where de-risking has disrupted remittances—showed how targeted safeguards and collaboration with regulated providers can preserve access while maintaining financial integrity without disrupting the use of new payment platforms.
Several countries, with IMF guidance, are investing in machine learning to detect anomalies in cross-border financial flows, and others are tightening regulation of virtual asset service providers. Governments are investing in their own capacity to trace crypto transfers, and blockchain analytics firms are often employed to do that. IMF analysis of cross-border flows and the updated FATF rules are mutually reinforcing. If implemented cohesively, they can help digital efficiency coexist with financial integrity. For that to happen, legal frameworks must adapt to enable timely access to digital evidence while preserving due process. Supervisory models need to evolve to oversee both banks and nonbank financial institutions offering cross-border services. Regulators and fintechs should be partners, and sustained multilateral engagement should foster fast, cheap, transparent, and traceable cross-border payments—anchored interoperable standards that also respect privacy.
Governments must keep up. That means investing in regulatory technology, such as AI-powered transaction monitoring and blockchain analysis, and giving agencies tools and expertise to detect complex crypto schemes and synthetic identity fraud. Institutions must keep pace with criminals by hiring and retaining expert data scientists and financial crime specialists. Virtual assets must be brought under AML/CFT regulation, public-private partnerships should codevelop tools to spot emerging risks, and global standards from the FATF and the Financial Stability Board must be backed by national investments in effective AML/CFT frameworks.
Consistent and coordinated implementation is important. Fragmented efforts leave openings for criminals. Their growing technological advantage over governments threatens to undermine financial integrity, destabilize economies, weaken already fragile institutions, and erode public trust in systems meant to ensure safety and fairness. As crime rings adopt and adapt emerging technologies to outpace enforcement, the cost is not only fiscal—it is structural and systemic. Governments can’t wait. The criminals won’t.
Analysis
Multilateral development banks reaffirm commitment to climate finance, pledge innovative funding for adaptation
Multilateral development banks have reaffirmed their commitment to climate finance, pledging to scale up innovative funding to boost climate adaptation and resilience. “Financing climate resilience is not a cost, but an investment.” This was the key message from senior MDB officials at the end of a side event organised by the Climate Investment Funds (CIF) on the opening day of the 30th United Nations Climate Conference (COP30) in Belém, Brazil.
The conference runs from 10 to 21 November. During a panel discussion titled “Accelerating large-scale climate change adaptation,” MDB representatives, including the African Development Bank Group, outlined how their institutions are fulfilling Paris Agreement commitments by mobilising substantial and innovative resources for climate adaptation and mitigation. Ilan Goldfajn, President of the Inter-American Development Bank Group, emphasised that “resilience is more than a concern for the future: it is also essential for development today.” He announced that MDBs are tripling their financing for resilience over the next decade, targeting $42 billion by 2030.
“At the Inter-American Development Bank, we are turning preparedness into protection and resilience into opportunity,” Goldfajn added. Tanja Faller, Director of Technical Evaluation and Monitoring at the Council of Europe Development Bank, stressed that climate change “not only creates new threats, but also amplifies existing inequalities. The most socially vulnerable people are the hardest hit and the last to recover. This is how a climate crisis also becomes a social crisis.” Representatives from the Islamic Development Bank, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, the Asian Development Bank, the World Bank Group, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the European Investment Bank, the New Development Bank and IDB Invest (the private sector arm of the Inter-American Development Bank Group) also shared concrete examples of successful adaptation investments and strategies for mobilising new resources.
Kevin Kariuki, Vice President of the African Development Bank Group in charge of Power, Energy, Climate and Green Growth, presented the Bank’s leadership in advancing climate adaptation and mitigation. “At the African Development Bank, we understand the priorities of our countries: adaptation and mitigation are at the heart of our climate interventions.” He highlighted the creation of the Climate Action Window, a new financing mechanism under the African Development Fund, the Bank Group’s concessional window for low-income countries.
“The African Development Bank is the only multilateral development bank with a portfolio of adaptation projects ready for investment through the Climate Action Window,” Kariuki noted, adding that Germany, the United Kingdom and Switzerland are among key co-financing partners. Kariuki also showcased the Bank’s YouthADAPT programme, which has invested $5.4 million in 41 youth-led enterprises across 20 African countries, generating more than 10,000 jobs — 61 percent of which are led by women, and mobilising an additional $7 million in private and donor funding.
Representatives from Zambia, Mozambique and Jamaica also shared local perspectives on the financing needs of communities most exposed to climate risk. The panel followed the official opening of COP30, marked by a passionate appeal from Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for greater climate investment to prevent a “tragedy for humanity.”
“Without the Paris Agreement, we would see a 4–5°C increase in global temperatures,” Lula warned. “Our call to action is based on three pillars: honouring commitments; accelerating public action with a roadmap enabling humanity to move away from fossil fuels and deforestation; and placing humanity at the heart of the climate action programme: thousands of people are living in poverty and deprivation as a result of climate change. The climate emergency is a crisis of inequality,” he continued.
“We must build a future that is not doomed to tragedy. We must ensure that we live in a world where we can still dream.” Outgoing COP President Mukhtar Babayevn, Azerbaijan’s Minister of Ecology, urged developed nations to fulfil their promises made at the Baku Conference, including commitments to mobilise $300 billion in climate finance. He called for stronger political will and multilateral cooperation, before handing over the COP presidency to Brazilian diplomat André Corrêa do Lago, who now leads the negotiations.
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