Economy
Africa needs help to cope with major funding squeeze—IMF
Africa is facing a severe financing squeeze that, on the back of a series of unprecedented shocks, is disrupting economic growth and endangering its long-term development, the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) top official for the region said. Sub-Saharan Africa was only beginning to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic’s economic fallout when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine roiled capital and commodity markets, drove up inflation and paved the way for higher interest rates around the world. Abebe Selassie, director of the IMF’s African Department, said in an interview with Reuters that any one of those shocks would have been historic on their own.
“And they’ve been layered in a region, which has limited resilience … So, yeah, it is very problematic,” he said. The Fund published its Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa on Friday during the IMF and World Bank spring meetings in Washington. In the report, it forecast that regional growth will slow for the second year in a row to 3.6% this year from 3.9% in 2022, before rebounding to 4.2% next year. A tightening of global monetary policy to rein in inflation has led to higher interest rates, raising Africa’s borrowing costs on both domestic and international markets. Sovereign debt spreads for the region have climbed to three times the emerging market average, leaving Africa’s frontier market countries cut off from international capital markets since early 2022. Two countries – Zambia and Ghana – have already defaulted on their sovereign debt since the start of the pandemic. A Group of 20-backed initiative aimed at assisting with debt restructuring is plagued by delays and has so far failed to provide relief.
Speaking to journalists during a news briefing on Friday, Selassie said the Fund was “comfortable” with the steps being taken by Ghana to secure a lending programme. He added that the IMF was now urging creditors to step forward to provide financing assurances needed to allow the IMF board to approve a programme. Kenya, meanwhile, is not expected to seek a restructuring of its debt despite current strains and the looming burden of a $2 billion eurobond that will mature in June 2024 . The U.S. dollar’s effective exchange rate, meanwhile, reached a 20-year high last year, driving up the cost of servicing existing dollar-denominated debt, the IMF report said.
This occurred amid a drop in Chinese bilateral funding – a key source of critical infrastructure financing – and a long-term decline in traditional development finance. “All of the key sources of financing of deficits – both the current account and the fiscal deficit – really are now very curtailed,” Selassie said. Selassie said the IMF and World Bank would seek to step up to fill the gap, but they will need help. “Honestly, this is also a time when other bilateral creditors need to come forward,” he said. Failure to act could hamper African governments’ ability to address an ongoing cost-of-living crisis and potentially force them to reduce resources for health, education and infrastructure. Longer term, Africa is faced with a gaping shortfall in funding for climate adaptation. While wealthy countries are beginning to mobilise resources, Selassie said Africa, which has done little to cause climate change but is disproportionately impacted by it, must not be hobbled by more onerous debt. “For the poorest countries, the most fragile countries, it is really, really important that we lower the weighted average cost of financing they face big time,” he said. “What has transpired over the last 15 to 20 years clearly has not been ideal.
The Arab Africa Trade Bridges (AATB) Program and the Federal Republic of Nigeria formalized a partnership with the signing of the AATB Membership Agreement, officially welcoming Nigeria as the Program’s newest member country. The signing ceremony took place in Abuja on the sidelines of the 5th AATB Board of Governors Meeting, hosted by the Federal Government of Nigeria.
The Membership Agreement was signed by Eng. Adeeb Y. Al Aama, the CEO of the International Islamic Trade Finance Corporation (ITFC) and AATB Program Secretary General, and H.E. Mr. Wale Edun, Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Federal Republic of Nigeria. The Agreement will provide a strategic and operational framework to support Nigeria’s efforts in trade competitiveness, promote export diversification, strengthen priority value chains, and advance capacity-building efforts in line with national development priorities. Areas of collaboration will include trade promotion, agribusiness modernization, SME development, businessmen missions, trade facilitation, logistics efficiency, and digital trade readiness.
The Honourable Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr. Wale Edun, called for deeper trade collaboration between African and Arab nations, stressing the importance of value-added Agribusiness and industrial partnerships for regional growth. Speaking in Abuja at the Agribusiness Matchmaking Forum ahead of the AATB Board of Governors Meeting, the Minister said the shifting global economy makes it essential for African and Arab nations to rely more on regional cooperation, investment and shared markets.
He highlighted projections showing Arab-Africa trade could grow by more than US$37 billion in the next three years and urged partners to prioritize value addition rather than raw commodity exports. He noted that Nigeria’s growing industrial base and upcoming National Single Window reforms will support efficiency, investment and private-sector expansion.
“This is a moment to turn opportunity into action”, he said. “By working together, we can build stronger value chains, create jobs and support prosperity across our regions”, Edun emphasized. “As African and Arab nations embark on this journey of deeper trade collaboration, the potential for growth and development is vast. With a shared vision and commitment to value-added partnerships, we can unlock new opportunities, drive economic growth, and create a brighter future for our people.”
Speaking during the event, Eng. Adeeb Y. Al Aama, Chief Executive Officer of ITFC and Secretary General of the AATB Program, stated: “We are pleased to welcome Nigeria to be part of the AATB Program. Nigeria stands as one of Africa’s most dynamic and resilient economies in Africa, with a rapidly expanding private sector and strong potential across agribusiness, energy, manufacturing, and digital industries. Through this Membership Agreement, we look forward to collaborating closely with Nigerian institutions to strengthen value chains, expand regional market access, enhance trade finance and investment opportunities, and support the country’s development priorities.”
The signing of this Agreement underscores AATB’s continued engagement with African countries and its evolving portfolio of programs supporting trade and investment. In recent years, AATB has worked on initiatives across agribusiness, textiles, logistics, digital trade, export readiness under the AfCFTA framework, and other regional initiatives such as the Common African Agro-Parks (CAAPs) Programme.
With Nigeria’s accession, the AATB Program extends it’s presence in the region and adds a key partner working toward advancing trade-led development and fostering inclusive economic growth.
Federal Executive Council (FEC) has approved the 2026–2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF), a key fiscal document that outlines Nigeria’s revenue expectations, macroeconomic assumptions, and spending priorities for the next three years. The approval followed Wednesday’s FEC meeting presided over by President Bola Tinubu at the State House, Abuja. The Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Senator Atiku Bagudu made this known after the meeting.
The Minister said the Federal Government is projecting a total revenue inflow of N34.33 trillion in 2026, including N4.98 trillion expected from government-owned enterprises. Bagudu said that the projected revenue is N6.55 trillion lower than earlier estimates, adding that federal allocations are expected to drop by about N9.4 trillion, representing a 16% decline compared to the 2025 budget.
He said that statutory transfers are expected to amount to about N3 trillion within the same fiscal year. On macroeconomic assumptions, FEC adopted an oil production benchmark of 2.6 million barrels per day (mbpd) for 2026, although a more conservative 1.8 mbpd will be used for budgeting purposes. An oil price benchmark of $64 per barrel and an exchange rate of N1,512 per dollar were also approved.
Bagudu said the exchange rate assumption reflects projections tied to economic and political developments ahead of the 2027 general elections. He said the exchange rate assumption took into account the fiscal outlook ahead of the 2027 general elections.
The minister said that all the parameters were based on macroeconomic analysis by the Budget Office and other relevant agencies. Bagudu said FEC also reviewed comments from cabinet members before approving the Medium-Term Fiscal Expenditure Ceiling (MFTEC), which sets expenditure limits. Earlier, the Senate approved the external borrowing plan of $21.5 billion presented by President Tinubu for consideration The loans, according to the Senate, were part of the MTEF and Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP) for the 2025 budget.
The spot rate on Nigerian Treasury bills has been increased by 146 basis points by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) following tight subscription levels at the main auction on Wednesday. The spot rate on Treasury bills with one-year maturity has now surpassed Nigeria’s 16.05% inflation by 145 basis points following a recent decision to keep the policy rate at 27%.
The Apex Bank came to the primary market with N700 billion Treasury bills offer size across standard tenors, including 91-day, 182-day and 364 day maturities. Details from the auction results showed that demand settled slightly above the total offers as investors began to seek higher returns on naira assets despite disinflation.
Total subscription came in at about N775 billion versus N700 billion offers floated at the main auction. The results showed rising appetite for duration as investors parked about 90% of their bids on Nigerian Treasury bills with 364 days maturity. The CBN opened N100 billion worth of 91 days bills for subscription, but the offer received underwhelming bids totalling N44.17 billion.
The CBN allotted N42.80 billion for the short-term instrument at the spot rate of 15.30%, the same as the previous auction. Total demand for 182 days Nigerian Treasury bills settled at N33.38 billion as against N150 billion that the authority pushed out for subscription. The CBN raised N30.36 billion from 182 days bills allotted to investors at the spot rate of 15.50%, the same as the previous auction.
Investors staked N697.29 billion on N450 billion in 364-day Treasury bills that was offered for subscription. The CBN raised N636.46 billion from the longest tenor at the spot rate of 17.50%, up from 16.04% at the previous auction.
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