Economy
Africa will lose $65bn to COVID -19 full lockdown – UNECA
United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA), says African economy will lose $65 billion in full lockdown of the continent due to COVID-19. Mr Stephen Karingi, Director, Regional Trade and Integration said this during the World Health Organisation (WHO) and World Economic Forum (WEF) virtual joint press briefing. Karingi said that the African economy would contrast as much as three per cent in 2020. According to him, an analysis done by UNECA showed that every month the African economy would lose 2.5 per cent of its GDP if a total lockdown was declared.
“This is about $6.5 billion every month based on the intensity and strictness of the lockdown. If we have a full lockdown of the whole continent, we would lose $65 billion,” he said.
According to him, reports of the first quarter released by African governments, revealed a reduction in exports and lower revenue generation by governments, because of the lower activities of businesses and the economy. He said that the speed of Africa’s recovery from the pandemic would depend on its actions to save lives and businesses, adding that without lives, there would be no businesses and income. Karingi maintained that measures required by governments should be a smart exit from the lockdown, and to ensure that numbers of COVID-19 cases decreased to prevent an economic shutdown.
Also speaking, Dr Amit Thakker, Executive Chairman, Africa Health Business and President of the Africa Healthcare Federation, said that there were three phases of Africa post COVID-19 recovery.
Thakker explained that the phases would run from 2021 to 2023, and phase one, repair, would involved containment, vaccines, social distancing measures and hand washing. According to him, phase two which would be in 2022, would determine if Africa’s growth would be strong or decline, while phase three would be partnership and leadership to achieve progressive growth.
Commenting, Dr Matshidiso Moeti, World Health Organization (WHO), Regional Director for Africa, said that easing lockdown in Africa should be gradual, with the most essential parts of the economy being opened up first.
According to Moeti, containment measures should be in place to ensure rates of COVID-19 infection reduces, while upscaling testing, contact tracing and treatment of patients.
She added that social distancing should be upheld, noting that to stop the spread of the virus, the key public health measures needed to be in place in every community, even where cases had not been reported. She said looking at the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic, especially now that most countries are at the community transmission stage, WHO estimates that the virus will peak in four to six weeks, if nothing is done. She added that factors that would drive the peak would be population density, underlying conditions and age.
Speaking of the COVID-19 herbal treatment purportedly produced in Madagascar, Moeti advised the government of Madagascar to take the product through a clinical trial. “We are prepared to collaborate with them,” she said. Moeti cautioned and advised countries against adopting a product that had not been through clinical tests for safety and efficacy in the management of COVID-19 patients. It is incredibly important that countries use data-driven, evidence-based approaches in their response,” she said. The director added that WHO was working with countries to leverage the assets they had in place, built in preparedness for Ebola, HIV, Tuberculosis and Polio programmes to scale-up coordination, mobilise people and repair supply chains globally and locally. There are 51, 239 confirmed cases of COVID-19, and 2006 deaths recorded across the African continent.
The Arab Africa Trade Bridges (AATB) Program and the Federal Republic of Nigeria formalized a partnership with the signing of the AATB Membership Agreement, officially welcoming Nigeria as the Program’s newest member country. The signing ceremony took place in Abuja on the sidelines of the 5th AATB Board of Governors Meeting, hosted by the Federal Government of Nigeria.
The Membership Agreement was signed by Eng. Adeeb Y. Al Aama, the CEO of the International Islamic Trade Finance Corporation (ITFC) and AATB Program Secretary General, and H.E. Mr. Wale Edun, Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Federal Republic of Nigeria. The Agreement will provide a strategic and operational framework to support Nigeria’s efforts in trade competitiveness, promote export diversification, strengthen priority value chains, and advance capacity-building efforts in line with national development priorities. Areas of collaboration will include trade promotion, agribusiness modernization, SME development, businessmen missions, trade facilitation, logistics efficiency, and digital trade readiness.
The Honourable Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr. Wale Edun, called for deeper trade collaboration between African and Arab nations, stressing the importance of value-added Agribusiness and industrial partnerships for regional growth. Speaking in Abuja at the Agribusiness Matchmaking Forum ahead of the AATB Board of Governors Meeting, the Minister said the shifting global economy makes it essential for African and Arab nations to rely more on regional cooperation, investment and shared markets.
He highlighted projections showing Arab-Africa trade could grow by more than US$37 billion in the next three years and urged partners to prioritize value addition rather than raw commodity exports. He noted that Nigeria’s growing industrial base and upcoming National Single Window reforms will support efficiency, investment and private-sector expansion.
“This is a moment to turn opportunity into action”, he said. “By working together, we can build stronger value chains, create jobs and support prosperity across our regions”, Edun emphasized. “As African and Arab nations embark on this journey of deeper trade collaboration, the potential for growth and development is vast. With a shared vision and commitment to value-added partnerships, we can unlock new opportunities, drive economic growth, and create a brighter future for our people.”
Speaking during the event, Eng. Adeeb Y. Al Aama, Chief Executive Officer of ITFC and Secretary General of the AATB Program, stated: “We are pleased to welcome Nigeria to be part of the AATB Program. Nigeria stands as one of Africa’s most dynamic and resilient economies in Africa, with a rapidly expanding private sector and strong potential across agribusiness, energy, manufacturing, and digital industries. Through this Membership Agreement, we look forward to collaborating closely with Nigerian institutions to strengthen value chains, expand regional market access, enhance trade finance and investment opportunities, and support the country’s development priorities.”
The signing of this Agreement underscores AATB’s continued engagement with African countries and its evolving portfolio of programs supporting trade and investment. In recent years, AATB has worked on initiatives across agribusiness, textiles, logistics, digital trade, export readiness under the AfCFTA framework, and other regional initiatives such as the Common African Agro-Parks (CAAPs) Programme.
With Nigeria’s accession, the AATB Program extends it’s presence in the region and adds a key partner working toward advancing trade-led development and fostering inclusive economic growth.
Federal Executive Council (FEC) has approved the 2026–2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF), a key fiscal document that outlines Nigeria’s revenue expectations, macroeconomic assumptions, and spending priorities for the next three years. The approval followed Wednesday’s FEC meeting presided over by President Bola Tinubu at the State House, Abuja. The Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Senator Atiku Bagudu made this known after the meeting.
The Minister said the Federal Government is projecting a total revenue inflow of N34.33 trillion in 2026, including N4.98 trillion expected from government-owned enterprises. Bagudu said that the projected revenue is N6.55 trillion lower than earlier estimates, adding that federal allocations are expected to drop by about N9.4 trillion, representing a 16% decline compared to the 2025 budget.
He said that statutory transfers are expected to amount to about N3 trillion within the same fiscal year. On macroeconomic assumptions, FEC adopted an oil production benchmark of 2.6 million barrels per day (mbpd) for 2026, although a more conservative 1.8 mbpd will be used for budgeting purposes. An oil price benchmark of $64 per barrel and an exchange rate of N1,512 per dollar were also approved.
Bagudu said the exchange rate assumption reflects projections tied to economic and political developments ahead of the 2027 general elections. He said the exchange rate assumption took into account the fiscal outlook ahead of the 2027 general elections.
The minister said that all the parameters were based on macroeconomic analysis by the Budget Office and other relevant agencies. Bagudu said FEC also reviewed comments from cabinet members before approving the Medium-Term Fiscal Expenditure Ceiling (MFTEC), which sets expenditure limits. Earlier, the Senate approved the external borrowing plan of $21.5 billion presented by President Tinubu for consideration The loans, according to the Senate, were part of the MTEF and Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP) for the 2025 budget.
The spot rate on Nigerian Treasury bills has been increased by 146 basis points by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) following tight subscription levels at the main auction on Wednesday. The spot rate on Treasury bills with one-year maturity has now surpassed Nigeria’s 16.05% inflation by 145 basis points following a recent decision to keep the policy rate at 27%.
The Apex Bank came to the primary market with N700 billion Treasury bills offer size across standard tenors, including 91-day, 182-day and 364 day maturities. Details from the auction results showed that demand settled slightly above the total offers as investors began to seek higher returns on naira assets despite disinflation.
Total subscription came in at about N775 billion versus N700 billion offers floated at the main auction. The results showed rising appetite for duration as investors parked about 90% of their bids on Nigerian Treasury bills with 364 days maturity. The CBN opened N100 billion worth of 91 days bills for subscription, but the offer received underwhelming bids totalling N44.17 billion.
The CBN allotted N42.80 billion for the short-term instrument at the spot rate of 15.30%, the same as the previous auction. Total demand for 182 days Nigerian Treasury bills settled at N33.38 billion as against N150 billion that the authority pushed out for subscription. The CBN raised N30.36 billion from 182 days bills allotted to investors at the spot rate of 15.50%, the same as the previous auction.
Investors staked N697.29 billion on N450 billion in 364-day Treasury bills that was offered for subscription. The CBN raised N636.46 billion from the longest tenor at the spot rate of 17.50%, up from 16.04% at the previous auction.
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