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What hope for Nigerians in 2009

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By Omoh Gabriel, Group Business Editor
2009 is probably a year that Nigerians will be made to pay for the lack of policy direction of their leaders. The year seem to be the beginning of the biblical pharaohnic seven years of famine and bad harvest that followed a previous seven good years of harvest. Pharaoh the king of Egypt had been forewarned in a dream where he saw seven fat cows that were devoured by seven lean cows which afterward appeared not to have eaten any thing. The great dream interpreter, the proverbial Joseph asked the king to save for the seven lean years, his advise was yielded to and Egypt was spared the harrowing experience of famine.
In the eight years of Obasanjo reign crude oil prices were gyrating upwards and the price was always above the budget bench mark. Nigerian own Joseph, Dr. Okonjo-Iweala and her economic management team advised that the excess be saved for a raining day, thus the excess crude oil account was created. But soon afterwards the account became contentious and the need to share the proceed on that became a national issue. The account was shared to a point of depletion. If that savings made in the Obasanjo years were intact as advised by the IMF/World Bank Nigeria would have some funds to fall back on. Today the financial melt down has left the global economy into a deep recession almost of equal proportion to the great depression of 1930s. As a result of low demand for crude, prices of the commodity has crashed from $147 per barrel in July 2008 to about $40 per barrel in December. Crude oil delivery for January were sold at about $36 per barrel about $9 per barrel short of budget bench mark of $45 per barrel. The worries is that if prices remain below $40 per barrel the federal government budget and that of the states will be frustrated as their will not be enough resources to finance the recurrent expenditure of about N1.6 trillion not to talk of the capital projects. Government workers must know that if the situation in the oil market does not improve to at least the $45 per barrel bench mark, governments across the country that depends mainly on federation account allocation will face months of unpaid salaries, and the attendant industrial unrest and agitations. Teachers in some states are already facing the challenge of unpaid salaries which is the usual starting point.
What this means is that there will be no additional job created in 2009 and many who are currently on employment may lose their jobs. As the government resort to domestic borrowing, it will crow out the private sector from having access to bank loans as it will jack up interest rates. As interest rates goes up only the government can afford to borrow at all cost. Many manufacturers will be denied access to working capital and may either reduce their production levels which will lead to low capacity utilisation, cut back in production line, will not expand or invest in new production line or close down and send their work force to the labour market.
As this happen stock of inventory of finished products will stare manufacturers in the face as a result of low purchasing power of the citizenry. Inflation of course will take its toll on the economy. Already the government has forced the Central Bank of Nigeria to devalue the naira, it most likely that in the cause of the year the naira will be further devalued.
Reason to worry for 2009
The basic assumptions on which the projections for the 2009 budget were calculated seems not to be holding ground. The price bench mark of $45 per barrel is far from reality, the production level set for the budget is not achievable based on OPEC quota and the reality on ground in the Niger Delta.The naira denominated $500million bond proposed in the budget is being opposed by the National Assembly, the fiscal responsibility act limits government deficit to 3 per cent of the GDP, but the current deficit is 3.9 per cent and requires the National Assembly approval to implement. In the face of these reality government which is the biggest spender in the Nigerian economy has introduced austerity measures. President Umaru Musa Yar’ Adua in the provision of the 2009 budget introduced austerity measure in Ministries, Departments and Agencies to combat the financial constraints facing the 2009 budget. This will in the course of the implementation of the budget bring about belt tightening of the every Nigerian. This is more so as the revenue expectation from oil is falling short of target as already the price of crude has slide to $36 per barrel below the $45 per barrel benchmark of the 2009 budget and the fact that OPEC has cut Nigeria quota to 2.05million barrel per day while the budget is predicated on oil production of 2.292million barrel per day. “Due to these serious resource constraints, the 2009 budget features certain cost saving measures which include no new procurement of new vehicles, no construction/acquisition/purchase of new office buildings, reduction in the provision for office furniture and equipment in non essential cases, reduced provision for international travels and transport, focus on priority sectors, reduced provision for workshops, outlays on meals and refreshment have been rationalised across the board, minimal capital votes for some MDAs. With fiscal restraint there will be limited money in circulation in 2009. As most businesses in Nigeria depends on government contracts it appears that business activities in 2009 will be on the low side. The 2009 situation is more dicing when
The former minister of Finance Dr. Shamshudeen Usman before his re deployment disclosed that “the deficit component of the 2009 budget was higher than what the fiscal responsibility act provided for and would require the approval of the National Assembly for the executive to implement”. He said that the act provision “empowers the executive to raise a deficit of 3 per cent of GDP but that the current deficit is 3.3 which is above the provision of the act and would need the approval of the legislature for it to stand”. Making further clarification on the budget the minister said that the source of funding of the deficit has been well articulated. He said that “the deficit is to be financed by out standing signature bonuses, privatisation proceeds, recall of $200million from Africa Development Bank/ATF, unspent balances of 2008 budget and domestic borrowing”.
Giving the breakdown of the amount expected from the various outlined sources to finance the deficit the minister said that outstanding signature bonuses from oil block sales amounts to N155billion, Proceeds from privatisation N100billion, the recall of $200million from yields of Nigeria investment in Africa Development Bank Trust funds (which has grown to $400million) N25billion, Domestic borrowing will yield N420billion, Nigeria International Bond that will be floated will yield another N62billion and about N330billion from the unspent 2008 budget will all be put together to finance the deficit component of the 2009 budget.
What to do
2009 is a year that every Nigerian must learn to be prudent. Save more and invest in areas that can provide additional income. It is a time for individuals to spend only on essentials and the very necessaries of life food, shelter, education for the children, health care and clothing. It is not a year for parting as every kobo matters in the family. Except for those who stole government money. In 2009 putting two cars on the road could exert serious pressure on individual finances as inflation is most likely to be high. It is a year that every Nigerian should demonstrate some sense of patriotism by buying made in Nigeria goods to keep jobs at home and the few existing industry running. Industrial out put may face some challenges as disposable income will be low and finished inventory are likely to pile up in firms warehouses. Companies may be compelled to spend more on advertisement to attraction the few customers that will have the financial muscle to buy their products. It is a period that individuals are likely to seek more than one paid job, moon lighting to survive. Some who have space in their environment may as well do part time farming to help provide certain of their needs through self help.

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Afreximbank successfully closed its second Samurai Bond transactions, raising JPY 81.8bn or $527m

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African Export-Import Bank said it has successfully closed its second Samurai bond transaction, securing a total of JPY 81.8 billion (approx. USD 527 million) through Regular and Retail Samurai Bonds offerings.

The execution surpasses the Bank’s 2024 debut issuance size, attracting orders from more than 100 institutional and retail investors, marking a renewed demonstration of strong Japanese investor confidence in the Bank’s credit and its growing presence in the yen capital markets.

On 18 November, Afreximbank priced a JPY 45.8 billion 3-year tranche in the Regular Samurai market following a comprehensive sequence of investor engagement activities leveraging Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD9), including Non-Deal Roadshows (NDRs) in Tokyo, Kanazawa, Kyoto, Shiga and Osaka, a Global Investor Call, and a two-day soft-sounding process which tested investor appetite across 2.5-, 3-, 5-, 7-, and 10-year maturities.

With market expectations of a Bank of Japan interest rate increase, investor demand concentrated in shorter tenors, resulting in a focused 3-year tranche during official marketing.

The tranche attracted strong participation from asset managers (22.3%), life insurers (15.3%), regional corporates, and high-net-worth investors (39.7%).

Concurrently, Afreximbank priced its second Retail Samurai bond on 18 November, a JPY 36.0 billion 3-year tranche, more than double the inaugural JPY 14.1 billion Retail Samurai issuance completed in November 2024.

The 2025 Retail Samurai bond also marks the first Retail Samurai bond issued in Japan in 2025.

Following the amendment to Afreximbank’s shelf registration on 7 November 2025, SMBC Nikko conducted an extensive seven-business-day demand survey through its nationwide branch network, followed by a six-business-day bond offering period.

The offering benefited from strong visibility supported by Afreximbank’s investor engagement across the country, including the Bank’s participation at TICAD9, where Afreximbank hosted the Africa Finance Seminar to introduce Multinational Development Bank’s mandate in Africa and its credit profile to key Japanese institutional investors.

MBC Nikko Securities Inc. acted as Sole Lead Manager and Bookrunner for both the Regular and Retail Samurai transactions. Chandi Mwenebungu, Afreximbank’s Managing Director, Treasury & Markets and Group Treasurer, commented:

“We are pleased with the successful completion of our second Samurai bond transactions, which marked a significant increase from our inaugural Retail Samurai bond in 2024, and which reflect the growing depth of our relationship with Japanese investors.

The strong demand, both in the Regular and Retail offerings, demonstrates sustained confidence in Afreximbank’s credit and mandate.

We remain committed to deepening our engagement in the Samurai market through regular investor activities and continued collaboration with our Japanese partners.”

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Ecobank unveils SME bazaar: a festive marketplace for local entrepreneurs

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Ecobank Nigeria, a member of Africa’s leading pan-African banking group, has announced the launch of the Ecobank SME Bazaar—a two-weekend festive marketplace designed to celebrate local creativity, empower entrepreneurs, and give Lagos residents a premium shopping experience this Detty December. The Bazaar will hold on 29–30 November and 6–7 December at the Ecobank Pan African Centre (EPAC), Ozumba Mbadiwe Road, Victoria Island, Lagos. Speaking ahead of the event, Omoboye Odu, Head of SMEs, Ecobank Nigeria, reaffirmed the bank’s commitment to supporting small and medium-sized businesses, describing them as the heartbeat of Nigeria’s economy. She explained that the Ecobank SME Bazaar was created to enhance visibility for entrepreneurs, expand market access, and support sustainable business growth.
According to her, “This isn’t just a market—it’s a vibrant hub of culture, commerce, and connection. From fresh farm produce to trendy fashion, handcrafted pieces, lifestyle products, and delicious food and drinks, the Ecobank SME Bazaar promises an unforgettable experience for both shoppers and participating SMEs. Whether you’re shopping for festive gifts, hunting for unique finds, or soaking in the Detty December energy, this is the place to be.” Ms. Odu added that participating businesses will enjoy increased brand exposure, deeper customer engagement, and meaningful networking opportunities—making the Bazaar a strong platform for both festive-season sales and long-term business growth. The event is powered by Ecobank in partnership with TKD Farms, Eko Marche, Leyyow, and other SME-focused organisations committed to building sustainable enterprises.

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16 banks have recapitalised before deadline—CBN

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The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has said that16 banks have so far met the new capital requirements for their various licences, some four months before the March 31, 2026 deadline. The apex bank also indicated that 27 other banks have raised capital through various methods in one of the most extensive financial sector reforms since 2004. Addressing journalists at the end of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting in Abuja, CBN Governor Mr Olayemi Cardoso said the banking recapitalisation was going on orderly, consistent with the regulator’s expectations. He said, “We are monitoring developments, and indications show the process is moving in the right direction.” Nigeria has 44 deposit-taking banks, including seven commercial banks with international authorisation, 15 with national authorisation, four with regional authorisation, four non-interest banks, six merchant banks, seven financial holding companies and one representative office.
Cardoso explained that eight commercial banks had met the N500 billion capital requirement as of July 22, 2024, rising to 14 by September of the same year. The number has now increased to 16 as the industry continues to race toward full compliance. He said that the reforms would reinforce the resilience of Nigerian banks both within the country and across the continent. “We are building a financial system that will be fit for purpose for the years ahead. Many Nigerian banks now operate across Africa and have been innovative across different markets. These new buffers will better equip them to manage risks in the multiple jurisdictions where they operate,” Cardoso said. According to him, the reforms would strengthen the financial sector’s capability to support households and businesses. He said, “Ultimately, this benefits Nigerians—our traders, our businesses and our citizens—who operate across those regions. “It should give everyone comfort to know that Nigerian banks with deep local understanding are present to support them. Commercial banks are also creating their own buffers through the ongoing recapitalisation.”
He added that the apex bank considered several factors in determining the new capital thresholds, including prevailing macroeconomic conditions, stress test results and the need for stronger risk buffers. He reassured on the regulator’s commitment to strict oversight as the consolidation progresses. “We will rigorously enforce our ‘fit and proper’ criteria for prospective new shareholders, senior management, and board members of banks, and proactively monitor the integrity of financial statements, adequacy of financial resources, and fair valuation of banks’ post-merger balance sheets,” Cardoso said. He said the CBN remained confident that the banking system would emerge stronger at the conclusion of the recapitalization exercise, with institutions better prepared to support Nigeria’s economic transformation Banks have up till March 31, 2026 to beef up their minimum capital base to the new standard set by the apex bank. Under the new minimum capital base, CBN uses a distinctive definition of the new minimum capital base for each category of banks as the addition of share capital and share premium, as against the previous use of shareholders’ funds.
While most banks have shareholders’ funds in excess of the new minimum capital base, their share premium and share capital significantly fall short of the new minimum definition. The CBN had in March 2024 released its circular on review of minimum capital requirement for commercial, merchant and non-interest banks. The apex bank increased the new minimum capital for commercial banks with international affiliations, otherwise known as mega banks, to N500 billion; commercial banks with national authorisation, N200 billion and commercial banks with regional license, N50 billion. Others included merchant banks, N50 billion; non-interest banks with national license, N20 billion and non-interest banks with regional license will now have N10 billion minimum capital. The 24-month timeline for compliance ends on March 31, 2026. Under the guidelines for the recapitalisation exercise, banks are expected to subject their new equity funds to capital verification before the clearance of the allotment proposal and release of the funds to the bank for onwards completion of the offer process and addition of the new capital to its capital base. The CBN is the final signatory in a tripartite capital verification committee that included the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC). The committee is saddled with scrutinising new funds being raised by banks under the ongoing banking sector recapitalisation exercise.

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