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 Bears tighten hold on Nigerian stock market, Naira remains stable across board

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The downtrend in the Nigerian Stock market persisted during the outgoing week, as sustained sell-offs in LAWUNION (-36.5%), MANSARD (-10.0%) and FORTE (-10.0%) weighed on overall performance. Consequently, the NSE All-Share Index closed in the red on 4 of the 5 trading sessions in the week, falling 1.3% w/w to settle at 27,388.62 points. Similarly, YTD return moderated to 2.0% and market capitalisation shed ₦187.7bn w/w to close at ₦14.3tn. Activity level strengthened as average volume and value rose 64.4% and 47.7% to 421.3m units and ₦5.6bn respectively. The top traded stocks by volume were SOVRENINS (200.3m units), GUARANTY (165.4m units) and ZENITH (148.2m units) while GUARANTY (₦4.7bn), ZENITH (₦2.9bn) and NESTLE (₦807.6m) led by value. 

Performance across sectors was bearish as 4 of 6 indices under our coverage trended southward w/w. The Consumer Goods index led laggards, down 6.8% on the back of sustained sell pressures in CHAMPION (-9.3%), INTBREW (-9.0%) and NESTLE (-9.0%). Trailing, the Banking index shed 2.6% on account of losses in ETI (-8.6%) and GUARANTY (-6.5%). Similarly, the Insurance and Oil & Gas indices lost 2.1% and 1.3% respectively as investors exited positions in LAWUNION (-36.5%), MANSARD (-10.0%), FORTE (-10.0%) and OANDO (-4.3%). Conversely, the Industrial Goods index emerged the lone gainer, up 1.0% as CUTIX (+2.9%) and BUACEMENT (+1.8%) buoyed performance. Finally, the AFR-ICT closed flat.

Investor sentiment as measured by market breadth (advance/decline ratio) strengthened to 0.9x from 0.6x as 23 stocks advanced against 25 that declined. The top performing stocks for the week were CILEASING (+26.9%), AIICO (+26.3%) and UCAP (+17.3%) while LAWUNION (-36.5%), MANSARD (-10.0%) and FORTE (-10.0%) were the laggards. Following four weeks of consecutive losses, we expect to see some bargain hunting in early trades next week. However, we maintain a bearish outlook in the near term as overall investor sentiment remains weak.

Foreign Exchange Market: Naira Remains Stable Across Board

During the week, we saw a slight increase in oil prices after the U.S. government reported a slower-than-anticipated rise in crude stocks. However, at the close of the week, brent crude price declined 0.9% to $58.45 per barrel amid concerns over sluggish China demand and decision of OPEC+ not to deepen output cut before its next meeting. In Nigeria, the foreign reserve balance sustained its downward trend, depreciating 1.4% w/w ($523.8m) to settle at $36.7bn (19/02/2020).  The Naira traded within similar bands all week. The CBN Spot rate opened the week at ₦306.95/US$1.00 but closed at ₦307.00/US$1.00, depreciating 10 kobo w/w. At the parallel market, the exchange rate traded flat all week to close at ₦360.00/$1.00. At the Investors’ & Exporters’ (I&E) FX Window, the NAFEX rate closed at ₦364.26/US$1.00, depreciating 50 kobo w/w. Activity level in the I&E Window declined as total turnover fell 35.1% w/w to $1.4bn from $2.1bn recorded in the previous week.

At the FMDQ Securities Exchange (SE) FX Futures Contract Market, the total value of open contracts of the naira increased 6.2% (US$711.5m) w/w to US$11.6bn. The DEC 2020 instrument (contract price: ₦365.10) saw the most buying interest with an additional subscription of US$169.3m taking the total value to US$1.4bn. On the other hand, the JAN 2021 instrument (contract price: N365.40) was the least subscribed, with marginal subscription of US$2.7m to gross US$844.8m. In the coming week, we expect the CBN to maintain its foreign exchange stability drive by sustaining interventions. 

Money Market: Yields Trend Higher in the Secondary Market due to OMO Auction The interbank rates, OBB and OVN opened the week at 2.9% and 3.6% respectively, higher than the 2.6% and 3.3% at the close of the previous week as system liquidity tightened to ₦482.2bn from ₦1.3tn. On Thursday, the OBB and OVN rates rose to 3.3% and 4.1% respectively despite an increase in liquidity levels to ₦890.6bn due to the inflow of ₦627.2bn from OMO maturities. Finally, on Friday,  the OBB and OVN rate moderated to close at 3.0% and 3.8% respectively while system liquidity settled at ₦778.5bn.

On Thursday, the apex maintained its liquidity management exercise through an OMO auction, offering instruments worth N300.0bn across three maturities. In contrast to the experience over the last few weeks, investors subscribed to the short-term instrument (Offer: ₦10.0bn; Subscription: ₦10.0bn; Sale: ₦10.0bn) and subscription matched offer at 1.0x bid-to-cover ratio and marginal rate of 11.45%. The 180-day (Offer: ₦20.0bn; Subscription: ₦44.78bn; Sale: ₦44.78bn) and 362-day (Offer: ₦270bn; Subscription: ₦280.51bn; Sale: ₦245.21bn) instruments were oversubscribed at 2.2x and 1.0x respectively at marginal rates of 11.59% and 13.02%. In the treasury bills secondary market, the performance was bearish as average yield across benchmark tenors trended higher by 38bps w/w to close at 3.8%. Sell-offs were highest at the long-end of the curve with yields up 95bps to 5.1%. The short-term instruments also recorded sell-offs as yields rose 30bps to 2.9% while the medium-term yields declined 12bps to close at 3.6%. In the coming week, we expect inflows of ₦927.8bn from OMO maturities and we believe the CBN to conduct OMO auction. we believed increased liquidity resulting from the huge inflows from OMO maturities will pressure yields in the secondary Treasury Bills market.

Bonds Market: Bullish Momentum Sustained in the Bonds Market 

The Debt Management Office (DMO) offered a total of ₦140.0bn (Total sales: ₦100.0bn) across 3-tenors in Wednesday’s bond auction. The APRIL 2023 (₦45.0bn at 8.8%), APRIL 2029 (₦45.0bn at10.7%) and APRIL 2049 (₦50.0bn at 12.2%) instruments were reopened at lower rates compared to January’s auction (5-year: 9.9%, 10-year: 11.1% and 30-year: 12.6%). Consequent on elevated system liquidity, all instruments were oversubscribed as bid-to-cover ratio stood at 1.7x (5-year), 2.1x (10-year) and 4.5x (30-year). In the secondary market, average yield declined 30bps w/w to 9.9% as demand continued to soar. Hence, the market returned bullish on all trading sessions save Tuesday (+7bps) following sell pressures ahead of the bond auction. Across tenors, the medium dated bonds had the most buying interest following a 29bps drop in yield w/w while yields on the short and long-term bonds fell 19bps apiece due to high demand. The bullish performance in the SSA Eurobonds space was persistent as average yield plunged 16bps w/w. The Ghana 2029 and 2049 instruments enjoyed most buying interest, shedding 40bps and 36bps w/w respectively. Meanwhile, yields on Gabon 2024 and Senegalese 2024 instruments rose 1bps apiece w/w. For African Corporate Eurobonds, the bullish run continued as average yield dipped 30bps w/w. The ESKOM HOLDINGS 2021 and 2025 instruments led the laggards with a 32bps and 7bps rise in yields respectively as current operational crisis in the company remain unresolved. Conversely, as investors sought to take advantage of a higher stock price (2.0x) relative to its equity conversion price, the SIBANYE GOLD convertible 2023 instrument saw strong demand as yields declined 440bps. Trailing, yields on NEERG ENERGY 2022 instrument slipped 58bps.  In the coming week, we expect yields in both the domestic bond and Eurobond markets to decline on the back of sustained demand.

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15% petrol import tax requires strategic roll out – LCCI

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Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) has stressed the need for a measured and strategic rollout of the 15 per cent petroleum import tax to ensure sustainable economic impact. The Director-General, LCCI, Dr Chinyere Almona, gave the advice in a statement on Monday in Lagos. Almona noted the recent decision by the Federal Government to impose a 15 per cent import tax on petrol and diesel, a move aimed at curbing import dependence and promoting local refining capacity.

She said while the policy direction aligned with the nation’s long-term objective of achieving energy self-sufficiency and naira strengthening, a strategic rollout was imperative. Almona said that Nigeria was already experiencing cost-of-living pressures, supply-chain, and inflation challenges and that the business community would be sensitive to further cost shocks. “The chamber recognises that discouraging fuel importation is a necessary step towards achieving domestic energy security, stimulating investment in local refineries, and deepening the downstream petroleum value chain.

“However, LCCI expresses concern about the current adequacy of local refining capacity to meet national demand. A premature restriction on imports, without sufficient domestic production, could lead to supply shortages, higher pump prices, and inflationary pressures across critical sectors,” she said. Almona called on the Federal Government to prioritise the full operationalisation and optimisation of local refineries, both public and private, including modular refineries and the recently revitalised major refining facilities. She said that a comprehensive framework for crude oil supply to these refineries in Naira rather than foreign exchange would significantly enhance cost efficiency, stabilise production, and strengthen the local value chain.

She said the chamber’s interest lied in a diversified downstream sector where multiple refineries, modular plants, and logistics firms thrive. She urged government to resolve outstanding labour union issues and create an enabling environment that fostered industrial harmony and private sector confidence.

According to her, ensuring clarity, consistency, and transparency in the implementation of the new tax regime will be crucial in preventing market distortions and sustaining investor trust. “While the reform is justified from an industrial policy standpoint, its success depends on practical implementation, robust safeguards, and parallel reforms to alleviate cost burdens on businesses and consumers. With local capacity not yet established, this tax will increase the cost of fuels as long as imports continue. Government needs to address the inhibiting factors against local production and refining before imposing this levy to discourage imports and support local production,” she said.

Almona recommended that the implementation of the tax policy be postponed. She advised that during the transition period government demonstrate its commitment through action by empowering local refiners through an efficient crude-for-Naira supply chain that ensured sufficient crude. “With this, refiners can boost their refining capacity with a stable supply of crude and adequately meet domestic demand at competitive rates. At this point, the imposition of an import tax will directly discourage importation and boost demand for the locally refined products,” she said.

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Update: Sanwo-Olu, others harp on stronger private sector role to drive AfCFTA success

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Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu of Lagos State has urged the private sector to take a stronger, more coordinated role in driving the successful implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

Sanwo-Olu, who made the call at the NEPAD Business Group Nigeria High-Level Business Forum, held on Thursday in Lagos, said that the agreement holds the key to transforming Africa into a globally competitive economic powerhouse. The theme of the forum is “Mobilising Africa’s Private Sector for AfCFTA Towards Africa’s Economic Development Amid Global Uncertainty”.

It brought together policymakers, business leaders, and development experts from across the continent. Sanwo-Olu was represented by the Lagos State Commissioner for Commerce, Cooperatives, Trade and Investment, Mrs Folashade Ambrose-Medebem. The governor said AfCFTA had the potential to lift millions of Africans out of poverty, but only if the continent’s business community seized the opportunity to scale production and integrate value chains across borders. “Governments can negotiate tariffs and treaties, but businesses must produce, export, invest, and believe in cross-border possibilities.

The private sector is the true engine of trade and industrialisation; without it, AfCFTA will remain a document and not a driver of development,” Sanwo-Olu said. He said that Lagos State had continued to create an enabling business environment through deliberate investments in infrastructure, logistics and technology, all designed to enhance productivity and trade efficiency. “From our vibrant tech ecosystem in Yaba to the Lekki Deep Sea Port and the expanding industrial corridors of the state, we are building a Lagos that supports trade, innovation, and investment,” he added. The governor stressed the need to empower Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs), which he described as “the lifeblood of Africa’s economy”.

He said access to finance, mentorship, and digital tools remained essential for their growth. “Through the Lagos State Employment Trust Fund (LSETF), we have supported thousands of entrepreneurs with training and access to funding. When SMEs thrive, our communities grow, jobs are created, and the promise of AfCFTA becomes real,” Sanwo-Olu noted. In his goodwill message, Dr Abdulrashid Yerima, President of the Nigerian Association of Small and Medium Enterprises (NASME), called on African governments to align policy frameworks with the realities of the private sector to ensure the success of AfCFTA.

Yerima said Africa’s shared prosperity depended on how effectively the continent could mobilise its entrepreneurs and innovators to take advantage of the 1.4 billion-strong continental market. “As private sector leaders, the employers of labour and creators of opportunity, we must move from aspiration to achievement, from potential to performance. AfCFTA is not just an agreement; it is Africa’s blueprint for collective economic independence,” he said. He emphasised the importance of strengthening cooperation among business coalitions, cooperatives, and industrial clusters to ensure that micro and small enterprises benefit from cross-border trade opportunities. “No SME can scale alone in a continental market.

We must build strong business networks that allow small enterprises to grow into regional champions,” he stressed. Yerima further encouraged African nations to adopt global best practices and digital frameworks, such as the OECD Digital for SMEs (D4SME) initiative, to improve access to knowledge, technology, and markets. Also speaking at the event, Mr Samuel Dossou-Aworet, President of the African Business Roundtable (ABR), urged African leaders to fully harness AfCFTA’s opportunities to build inclusive and sustainable economies. Dossou-Aworet noted that while Africa was currently the world’s second-fastest-growing region after Asia, sustained growth would require greater industrialisation and investment in human capital.

“The entry into force of the AfCFTA has expanded Africa’s investment frontiers. Where once our markets were fragmented, we now have a unified platform for trade and production. But growth must be inclusive, not just in numbers, but in impact on people’s lives,” he noted. Citing data from the African Development Bank (AfDB), Dossou-Aworet observed that 12 of the world’s 20 fastest-growing economies in 2025 are African, including Rwanda, Côte d’Ivoire, and Senegal. However, he cautioned that Africa’s GDP growth of around four per cent remained below the seven per cent threshold needed to significantly reduce poverty. “We must ensure that growth translates into better jobs, infrastructure, and access to opportunities for women and youth,” he stressed. He also called for innovative financing models to bridge Africa’s infrastructure gap and improve competitiveness in the global market.

“Africa needs market access and trade facilitation mechanisms to enable its products to reach global markets. Access to affordable capital is key, and our financial systems must evolve to support trade,” he added. Dossou-Aworet reaffirmed the African Business Roundtable’s commitment to supporting enterprise development and promoting Africa as a prime destination for investment. “This is Africa’s moment. If we work together, government, business, and citizens, we will build an Africa that competes confidently in the global economy and delivers prosperity for its people.”

The forum, convened by the NEPAD Business Group Nigeria, brought together regional and international partners to strengthen collaboration between public and private sectors in advancing AfCFTA’s goals. Chairman of the group, Chief J.K. Randle, commended the participation of leading business executives and policymakers, saying it reflected Africa’s readiness to take ownership of its economic destiny. Randle said, “We can no longer rely on external forces to drive our growth. The private sector must rise as the torchbearer of Africa’s transformation under AfCFTA.” He added that the forum would continue to serve as a platform for dialogue, knowledge exchange, and action planning to position African enterprises at the centre of global trade.

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First ever China–Europe Cargo transit completed via the Arctic route

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The first-ever container transit from China to Europe via the Northern Sea Route (NSR) arrived at the British port of Felixstowe on October 13, 2025. The voyage marked a breakthrough in developing the NSR as a sustainable and high-tech transport corridor connecting Asia and Europe. The development of this Arctic route reflects the steady expansion of global trade flows — an evolution that reaches every continent, including Africa, where maritime industries and energy corridors continue to expand.
The ship carrying nearly 25,000 tonnes of cargo departed from Ningbo on September 23 and entered the NSR on October 1. Navigation and information support was provided by Glavsevmorput, a subsidiary of Rosatom State Atomic Energy Corporation. The Arctic leg of the voyage took 20 days, cutting transit time almost by half compared with traditional southern routes. This new pathway complements existing ones, creating broader opportunities for efficient and sustainable logistics worldwide.
The Northern Sea Route is developing rapidly, becoming a viable and efficient global logistics route. This is facilitated by various factors, including the development of advanced technologies, the construction of new-generation nuclear icebreakers, and growing interest from international shippers. Working in the Arctic is challenging but we are transforming these challenges into results. Along with the main priority of ensuring the safety of navigation on the Northern Sea Route, managing the speed and time of passage along the route is becoming an important task for us today,” noted Rosatom State Corporation Special Representative for Arctic Development Vladimir Panov.
The Northern Sea Route, spanning about 5,600 km, links the western part of Eurasia with the Asia-Pacific region. In 2024, cargo turnover reached 37.9 million tonnes, surpassing the previous year’s record by more than 1.6 million. Container traffic between Russia and China doubled compared to 2023, and by mid-2025, 17 container voyages had already been completed, moving 280,000 tonnes — a 59% increase year-on-year.
The expansion of this Arctic transport route is becoming part of a broader global effort to strengthen connectivity and diversify supply chains. For Africa and the wider Global South these developments demonstrate how innovation in logistics can stimulate new opportunities for trade, technology exchange, and sustainable growth. As new corridors emerge, the world’s regions are becoming more closely linked — not in competition, but in collaboration — shaping a more resilient and interconnected global economy.

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