Economy
CBN survey sees Naira appreciation in 2019, rise in lending rate
Central Bank of Nigeria has said that businesses operating in Nigeria have expressed optimism on their confidence in Nigeria economic prospect in 2019. According to the report “majority of the respondent firms expect the Naira to appreciate in the current, next and the next twelve months respectively as their confidence indices stood at 23.0, 31.9 and 44.6 points. The CBN said that respondent firms expect borrowing rates to rise in current, next and the next twelve months as the confidence indices stood at 20.0, 6.7 and 7.6 points, respectively. According to the apex bank survey report “respondents’ expectation of inflation rate in the next six months and twelve months in January stood at 11.7 and 11.6 percent respectively. Respondent it further said were optimistic of better economic conditions as their expectations on the growth of the economy rose steadily in the short run with an index of 35.5, 42.7 and 56.4 points for the current month, next six months and next twelve months respectively.
According to the CBN Business Confidence survey for the month of January published in its website “At 25.9 index points, respondents expressed optimism on the overall confidence index (CI) on the macro economy in January 2019. The businesses outlook for February 2019 showed greater confidence on the macro economy with 62.1 index points. The optimism on the macro economy in the current month was driven by the opinion of respondents from services (13.0 points), industrial (10.9 points), wholesale/retail trade (1.5 points) and construction sectors (0.5 points). Whereas the major drivers of the optimism for next month were services (35.0 points), industrial (20.0 points), wholesale/retail trade (5.4 points) and construction sectors (1.7 points).
“The positive outlook by type of business in January 2019 were driven by businesses that are neither import- nor export-oriented (17.6 points), both import- and export-oriented (4.2 points), import-oriented (3.5 points) and those that are export-related (0.6 points). All sectors expressed optimism on own operations in January 2019. Respondents from the services sector expressed the greatest optimism on own operation with an index of 8.0 points. Comparatively, the construction sector expressed high optimism as the index rose from 0.0 point in the previous month to 0.6 points in the current month Respondents’ outlook on the volume of total order and business activity in January 2019 remained positive, as the index stood at 16.0 and 16.4 points, respectively. Similarly, respondents’ outlook on financial conditions (working capital) and average capacity utilisation was optimistic, as the indices stood at 15.6 and 22.5 points respectively. Respondents were positive on access to credit in the review month, with an index of 2.4 points.
“The positive outlook in the volume of business activities (67.4 index points) and employment (27.6 index points) indicated a favourable business outlook in the next month. The employment outlook index by sector showed that the industrial sector (29.3 points) indicates the highest prospects for creating jobs, followed by services (28.9 points), construction (25.0 points) and wholesale/retail trade sector (13.8 points). The analysis of businesses expansion plans by sector next month showed that the construction sector indicates higher disposition for expansion with an index of 42.9 points followed by services and industrial sectors with 41.2 and 11.4 index points, respectively. The surveyed firms identified insufficient power supply (61.6 points), high interest rate (60.0 points) unfavourable economic climate (55.3 points), unclear economic laws (53.5 points), financial problems (52.9 points), unfavourable political climate (50.8 points), insufficient demand (45.7 points) and competition (44.2 points) as the major factors constraining business activity in the current month.
Economy
Nigeria champions African-Arab trade to boost agribusiness, industrial growth
The Arab Africa Trade Bridges (AATB) Program and the Federal Republic of Nigeria formalized a partnership with the signing of the AATB Membership Agreement, officially welcoming Nigeria as the Program’s newest member country. The signing ceremony took place in Abuja on the sidelines of the 5th AATB Board of Governors Meeting, hosted by the Federal Government of Nigeria.
The Membership Agreement was signed by Eng. Adeeb Y. Al Aama, the CEO of the International Islamic Trade Finance Corporation (ITFC) and AATB Program Secretary General, and H.E. Mr. Wale Edun, Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Federal Republic of Nigeria. The Agreement will provide a strategic and operational framework to support Nigeria’s efforts in trade competitiveness, promote export diversification, strengthen priority value chains, and advance capacity-building efforts in line with national development priorities. Areas of collaboration will include trade promotion, agribusiness modernization, SME development, businessmen missions, trade facilitation, logistics efficiency, and digital trade readiness.
The Honourable Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr. Wale Edun, called for deeper trade collaboration between African and Arab nations, stressing the importance of value-added Agribusiness and industrial partnerships for regional growth. Speaking in Abuja at the Agribusiness Matchmaking Forum ahead of the AATB Board of Governors Meeting, the Minister said the shifting global economy makes it essential for African and Arab nations to rely more on regional cooperation, investment and shared markets.
He highlighted projections showing Arab-Africa trade could grow by more than US$37 billion in the next three years and urged partners to prioritize value addition rather than raw commodity exports. He noted that Nigeria’s growing industrial base and upcoming National Single Window reforms will support efficiency, investment and private-sector expansion.
“This is a moment to turn opportunity into action”, he said. “By working together, we can build stronger value chains, create jobs and support prosperity across our regions”, Edun emphasized. “As African and Arab nations embark on this journey of deeper trade collaboration, the potential for growth and development is vast. With a shared vision and commitment to value-added partnerships, we can unlock new opportunities, drive economic growth, and create a brighter future for our people.”
Speaking during the event, Eng. Adeeb Y. Al Aama, Chief Executive Officer of ITFC and Secretary General of the AATB Program, stated: “We are pleased to welcome Nigeria to be part of the AATB Program. Nigeria stands as one of Africa’s most dynamic and resilient economies in Africa, with a rapidly expanding private sector and strong potential across agribusiness, energy, manufacturing, and digital industries. Through this Membership Agreement, we look forward to collaborating closely with Nigerian institutions to strengthen value chains, expand regional market access, enhance trade finance and investment opportunities, and support the country’s development priorities.”
The signing of this Agreement underscores AATB’s continued engagement with African countries and its evolving portfolio of programs supporting trade and investment. In recent years, AATB has worked on initiatives across agribusiness, textiles, logistics, digital trade, export readiness under the AfCFTA framework, and other regional initiatives such as the Common African Agro-Parks (CAAPs) Programme.
With Nigeria’s accession, the AATB Program extends it’s presence in the region and adds a key partner working toward advancing trade-led development and fostering inclusive economic growth.
Economy
FEC approves 2026–2028 MTEF, projects N34.33trn revenue
Federal Executive Council (FEC) has approved the 2026–2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF), a key fiscal document that outlines Nigeria’s revenue expectations, macroeconomic assumptions, and spending priorities for the next three years. The approval followed Wednesday’s FEC meeting presided over by President Bola Tinubu at the State House, Abuja. The Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Senator Atiku Bagudu made this known after the meeting.
The Minister said the Federal Government is projecting a total revenue inflow of N34.33 trillion in 2026, including N4.98 trillion expected from government-owned enterprises. Bagudu said that the projected revenue is N6.55 trillion lower than earlier estimates, adding that federal allocations are expected to drop by about N9.4 trillion, representing a 16% decline compared to the 2025 budget.
He said that statutory transfers are expected to amount to about N3 trillion within the same fiscal year. On macroeconomic assumptions, FEC adopted an oil production benchmark of 2.6 million barrels per day (mbpd) for 2026, although a more conservative 1.8 mbpd will be used for budgeting purposes. An oil price benchmark of $64 per barrel and an exchange rate of N1,512 per dollar were also approved.
Bagudu said the exchange rate assumption reflects projections tied to economic and political developments ahead of the 2027 general elections. He said the exchange rate assumption took into account the fiscal outlook ahead of the 2027 general elections.
The minister said that all the parameters were based on macroeconomic analysis by the Budget Office and other relevant agencies. Bagudu said FEC also reviewed comments from cabinet members before approving the Medium-Term Fiscal Expenditure Ceiling (MFTEC), which sets expenditure limits. Earlier, the Senate approved the external borrowing plan of $21.5 billion presented by President Tinubu for consideration The loans, according to the Senate, were part of the MTEF and Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP) for the 2025 budget.
Economy
CBN hikes interest on treasury Bills above inflation rate
The spot rate on Nigerian Treasury bills has been increased by 146 basis points by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) following tight subscription levels at the main auction on Wednesday. The spot rate on Treasury bills with one-year maturity has now surpassed Nigeria’s 16.05% inflation by 145 basis points following a recent decision to keep the policy rate at 27%.
The Apex Bank came to the primary market with N700 billion Treasury bills offer size across standard tenors, including 91-day, 182-day and 364 day maturities. Details from the auction results showed that demand settled slightly above the total offers as investors began to seek higher returns on naira assets despite disinflation.
Total subscription came in at about N775 billion versus N700 billion offers floated at the main auction. The results showed rising appetite for duration as investors parked about 90% of their bids on Nigerian Treasury bills with 364 days maturity. The CBN opened N100 billion worth of 91 days bills for subscription, but the offer received underwhelming bids totalling N44.17 billion.
The CBN allotted N42.80 billion for the short-term instrument at the spot rate of 15.30%, the same as the previous auction. Total demand for 182 days Nigerian Treasury bills settled at N33.38 billion as against N150 billion that the authority pushed out for subscription. The CBN raised N30.36 billion from 182 days bills allotted to investors at the spot rate of 15.50%, the same as the previous auction.
Investors staked N697.29 billion on N450 billion in 364-day Treasury bills that was offered for subscription. The CBN raised N636.46 billion from the longest tenor at the spot rate of 17.50%, up from 16.04% at the previous auction.
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