Economy
Chief Economists outlook warn global growth under strain from trade policy shocks, AI disruption
The global economic outlook has worsened since the start of the year, as rising economic nationalism and tariff volatility fuel uncertainty and risk stalling long-term decision-making, according to a World Economic Forum report. The latest Chief Economist Outlook reveals that a strong majority (79%) of surveyed economists view the current geoeconomic developments as signs of a significant structural shift for the global economy rather than a temporary disruption. “Policymakers and business leaders must respond to heightened uncertainty and trade tensions with greater coordination, strategic agility and investment in the growth potential of transformative technologies like artificial intelligence,” said Saadia Zahidi, Managing Director, World Economic Forum. “These steps are essential for navigating today’s economic headwinds and securing long-term resilience and growth.”
Global uncertainty is seen as exceptionally high by 82% of the chief economists. While a narrow majority (56%) expect conditions to improve over the next year, concerns persist. Nearly all the chief economists (97%) place trade policy among the areas of highest uncertainty, followed by monetary policy (49%) and fiscal policy (35%). This uncertainty is expected to weigh on key economic indicators, including trade volumes (70%), GDP growth (68%) and foreign direct investment (62%). Most chief economists (87%) anticipate that businesses will respond to uncertainty by delaying strategic decisions, increasing recession risks. Debt sustainability is also a rising concern, cited by 74% of respondents for both advanced and developing economies. An overwhelming majority (86%) expect governments to meet rising defence spending needs through increased borrowing, potentially crowding out investment in public services and infrastructure.
In early April, at the peak of uncertainty, most chief economists (77%) were anticipating weak or very weak growth through 2025 in the US, alongside high inflation (79%) and a weakening dollar (76%). By contrast, they were cautiously optimistic about Europe’s prospects for the first time in years, mainly because of expectations of fiscal expansion, notably in Germany. The outlook for China remains muted, and the chief economists were divided over whether it will reach its target of 5% GDP growth this year. Optimism remains highest for South Asia, where 33% expect strong or very strong growth this year.
Artificial intelligence (AI) is poised to drive the next wave of economic transformation, unlocking significant growth potential but also introducing serious risks. Nearly half (46%) of chief economists expect AI to deliver a modest global real GDP boost of 0-5 percentage points over the next decade, with a further 35% projecting gains of 5-10 points. Key growth drivers include task automation (68%), accelerated innovation (62%) and worker augmentation (49%). Despite its potential, concerns persist: 47% expect net job losses over the next decade, compared to just 19% who expect gains. Above all, respondents highlighted the misuse of AI for disinformation and societal destabilization as the top risk to the economy (53%). Other key risks include rising concentration of market power (47%) and disruption of existing business models (44%). To fully harness AI’s potential, the chief economists emphasized the need for bold action from both governments and businesses. For governments, top priorities include investing in AI infrastructure (89%), promoting adoption across key industries (86%), facilitating AI talent mobility (80%), and investing in upskilling and redeployment (75%). For businesses, the focus is on adapting core processes to integrate AI (95%), reskilling employees (91%) and training leadership to steer AI-driven transformation (83%).
Economy
Nigeria champions African-Arab trade to boost agribusiness, industrial growth
The Arab Africa Trade Bridges (AATB) Program and the Federal Republic of Nigeria formalized a partnership with the signing of the AATB Membership Agreement, officially welcoming Nigeria as the Program’s newest member country. The signing ceremony took place in Abuja on the sidelines of the 5th AATB Board of Governors Meeting, hosted by the Federal Government of Nigeria.
The Membership Agreement was signed by Eng. Adeeb Y. Al Aama, the CEO of the International Islamic Trade Finance Corporation (ITFC) and AATB Program Secretary General, and H.E. Mr. Wale Edun, Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Federal Republic of Nigeria. The Agreement will provide a strategic and operational framework to support Nigeria’s efforts in trade competitiveness, promote export diversification, strengthen priority value chains, and advance capacity-building efforts in line with national development priorities. Areas of collaboration will include trade promotion, agribusiness modernization, SME development, businessmen missions, trade facilitation, logistics efficiency, and digital trade readiness.
The Honourable Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr. Wale Edun, called for deeper trade collaboration between African and Arab nations, stressing the importance of value-added Agribusiness and industrial partnerships for regional growth. Speaking in Abuja at the Agribusiness Matchmaking Forum ahead of the AATB Board of Governors Meeting, the Minister said the shifting global economy makes it essential for African and Arab nations to rely more on regional cooperation, investment and shared markets.
He highlighted projections showing Arab-Africa trade could grow by more than US$37 billion in the next three years and urged partners to prioritize value addition rather than raw commodity exports. He noted that Nigeria’s growing industrial base and upcoming National Single Window reforms will support efficiency, investment and private-sector expansion.
“This is a moment to turn opportunity into action”, he said. “By working together, we can build stronger value chains, create jobs and support prosperity across our regions”, Edun emphasized. “As African and Arab nations embark on this journey of deeper trade collaboration, the potential for growth and development is vast. With a shared vision and commitment to value-added partnerships, we can unlock new opportunities, drive economic growth, and create a brighter future for our people.”
Speaking during the event, Eng. Adeeb Y. Al Aama, Chief Executive Officer of ITFC and Secretary General of the AATB Program, stated: “We are pleased to welcome Nigeria to be part of the AATB Program. Nigeria stands as one of Africa’s most dynamic and resilient economies in Africa, with a rapidly expanding private sector and strong potential across agribusiness, energy, manufacturing, and digital industries. Through this Membership Agreement, we look forward to collaborating closely with Nigerian institutions to strengthen value chains, expand regional market access, enhance trade finance and investment opportunities, and support the country’s development priorities.”
The signing of this Agreement underscores AATB’s continued engagement with African countries and its evolving portfolio of programs supporting trade and investment. In recent years, AATB has worked on initiatives across agribusiness, textiles, logistics, digital trade, export readiness under the AfCFTA framework, and other regional initiatives such as the Common African Agro-Parks (CAAPs) Programme.
With Nigeria’s accession, the AATB Program extends it’s presence in the region and adds a key partner working toward advancing trade-led development and fostering inclusive economic growth.
Economy
FEC approves 2026–2028 MTEF, projects N34.33trn revenue
Federal Executive Council (FEC) has approved the 2026–2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF), a key fiscal document that outlines Nigeria’s revenue expectations, macroeconomic assumptions, and spending priorities for the next three years. The approval followed Wednesday’s FEC meeting presided over by President Bola Tinubu at the State House, Abuja. The Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Senator Atiku Bagudu made this known after the meeting.
The Minister said the Federal Government is projecting a total revenue inflow of N34.33 trillion in 2026, including N4.98 trillion expected from government-owned enterprises. Bagudu said that the projected revenue is N6.55 trillion lower than earlier estimates, adding that federal allocations are expected to drop by about N9.4 trillion, representing a 16% decline compared to the 2025 budget.
He said that statutory transfers are expected to amount to about N3 trillion within the same fiscal year. On macroeconomic assumptions, FEC adopted an oil production benchmark of 2.6 million barrels per day (mbpd) for 2026, although a more conservative 1.8 mbpd will be used for budgeting purposes. An oil price benchmark of $64 per barrel and an exchange rate of N1,512 per dollar were also approved.
Bagudu said the exchange rate assumption reflects projections tied to economic and political developments ahead of the 2027 general elections. He said the exchange rate assumption took into account the fiscal outlook ahead of the 2027 general elections.
The minister said that all the parameters were based on macroeconomic analysis by the Budget Office and other relevant agencies. Bagudu said FEC also reviewed comments from cabinet members before approving the Medium-Term Fiscal Expenditure Ceiling (MFTEC), which sets expenditure limits. Earlier, the Senate approved the external borrowing plan of $21.5 billion presented by President Tinubu for consideration The loans, according to the Senate, were part of the MTEF and Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP) for the 2025 budget.
Economy
CBN hikes interest on treasury Bills above inflation rate
The spot rate on Nigerian Treasury bills has been increased by 146 basis points by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) following tight subscription levels at the main auction on Wednesday. The spot rate on Treasury bills with one-year maturity has now surpassed Nigeria’s 16.05% inflation by 145 basis points following a recent decision to keep the policy rate at 27%.
The Apex Bank came to the primary market with N700 billion Treasury bills offer size across standard tenors, including 91-day, 182-day and 364 day maturities. Details from the auction results showed that demand settled slightly above the total offers as investors began to seek higher returns on naira assets despite disinflation.
Total subscription came in at about N775 billion versus N700 billion offers floated at the main auction. The results showed rising appetite for duration as investors parked about 90% of their bids on Nigerian Treasury bills with 364 days maturity. The CBN opened N100 billion worth of 91 days bills for subscription, but the offer received underwhelming bids totalling N44.17 billion.
The CBN allotted N42.80 billion for the short-term instrument at the spot rate of 15.30%, the same as the previous auction. Total demand for 182 days Nigerian Treasury bills settled at N33.38 billion as against N150 billion that the authority pushed out for subscription. The CBN raised N30.36 billion from 182 days bills allotted to investors at the spot rate of 15.50%, the same as the previous auction.
Investors staked N697.29 billion on N450 billion in 364-day Treasury bills that was offered for subscription. The CBN raised N636.46 billion from the longest tenor at the spot rate of 17.50%, up from 16.04% at the previous auction.
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