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Commodity prices to hit six-year low in 2026 as oil glut expands–WBG
Global commodity prices are projected to fall to their lowest level in six years in 2026, marking the fourth consecutive year of decline, according to the World Bank Group’s latest Commodity Markets Outlook.
Prices are forecast to drop by 7% in both 2025 and 2026, driven by weak global economic growth, a growing oil surplus, and persistent policy uncertainty.
Falling energy prices are helping to ease global inflation, while lower rice and wheat prices have helped make food more affordable in some developing countries. Despite the recent declines, however, commodity prices remain above pre-pandemic levels, with prices in 2025 and 2026 projected to be 23% and 14% higher, respectively, than in 2019. “Commodity markets are helping to stabilize the global economy,” said Indermit Gill, the World Bank Group’s Chief Economist and Senior Vice President for Development Economics.
“Falling energy prices have contributed to the decline in global consumer-price inflation. But this respite will not last. Governments should use it to get their fiscal house in order, make economies business-ready, and accelerate trade and investment.” The global oil glut has expanded significantly in 2025 and is expected to rise next year to 65% above the most recent high, in 2020. Oil demand is growing more slowly as demand for electric and hybrid vehicles grows and oil consumption stagnates in China.
Brent crude oil prices are forecast to fall from an average of $68 in 2025 to $60 in 2026—a five-year low. Overall, energy prices are forecast to fall by 12% in 2025 and a further 10% in 2026. Food prices are also easing, with declines of 6.1% projected in 2025 and 0.3% in 2026. Soybean prices are falling in 2025 because of record production and trade tensions but are expected to stabilize over the next two years.
Meanwhile, coffee and cocoa prices are forecast to fall in 2026 as supply conditions improve. However, fertilizer prices are projected to surge 21% in 2025, reflecting higher input costs and trade restrictions, before easing 5% in 2026. These increases are likely to further erode farmers’ profit margins and raise concerns about future crop yields. Precious metals have reached record highs in 2025, fueled by demand for safe-haven assets and continued central bank purchases. The price of gold—widely viewed as a safe haven during times of economic uncertainty—is expected to increase by 42% in 2025.
It is projected to increase by a further 5% next year, leaving gold prices at nearly double their 2015-2019 average. Silver prices are also expected to hit a record annual average in 2025, rising by 34% and further 8% in 2026. Commodity prices could fall more than expected during the forecast horizon if global growth remains sluggish amid prolonged trade tensions and policy uncertainty. Greater-than-expected oil output from OPEC+ could deepen the oil glut and exert additional downward pressure on energy prices. Electric-vehicle sales, which are expected to increase sharply by 2030, could further depress oil demand.
Conversely, geopolitical tensions and conflicts could push oil prices higher and boost demand for safe-haven commodities such as gold and silver. In the case of oil, the market impact of additional sanctions could also lift prices above the baseline forecast. Extreme weather from a stronger-than-expected La Niña cycle could disrupt agricultural output and increase electricity demand for heating and cooling, adding further pressure to food and energy prices. Meanwhile, the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence (AI) and growing electricity demand to power data centers could raise prices for energy and for base metals like aluminum and copper, which are essential for AI infrastructure.
“Lower oil prices provide a timely opportunity for developing economies to advance fiscal reforms that promote growth and job creation,”said Ayhan Kose, the World Bank’s Deputy Chief Economist and Director of the Prospects Group. “Phasing out costly fuel subsidies can free up resources for infrastructure and human capital—areas that create jobs and strengthen long-term productivity.
Such reforms would help shift spending from consumption to investment, rebuilding fiscal space while supporting more durable job creation.” The report’s special focus section examines the history of international commodity agreements in the context of today’s volatile commodity markets. It finds that while many past efforts—such as inventory controls, production quotas, and trade restrictions—helped stabilize prices for some commodities in the short term, few achieved lasting results.
The most enduring international commodity agreement, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), has struggled to sustain market power especially when prices are high—because higher prices tend to draw new competitors into the market. Instead of using price-control schemes, the report recommends that countries foster more diverse and efficient production, invest in technology and innovation, improve data transparency, and promote market-based pricing to build long-term resilience to price volatility.
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Nigeria–China tech deal to boost jobs, skills, local opportunities
A new technology transfer agreement between the Nigeria–China Strategic Partnership (NCSP) and the Presidential Implementation Committee on Technology Transfer (PICTT) is expected to open more job opportunities, improve local skills, and expand access to advanced technology for ordinary Nigerians.
In a press statement reaching Vanguard on Friday, the MoU aims to strengthen industrial development, support local content, and create clearer pathways for Nigerians to benefit from China’s growing investments in the country.
PICTT Chairman, Dr Dahiru Mohammed, said the partnership will immediately begin coordinated programmes that support local participation in infrastructure and industrial projects.
Special Adviser to the President on Industry, Trade and Investment, Mr John Uwajumogu, said the deal will help attract high value investments that can stimulate job creation and strengthen Nigeria’s economy.
NCSP Head of International Relations, Ms Judy Melifonwu, highlighted that Nigerians stand to gain from expanded STEM scholarships, technical training, access to modern technology, and collaboration across key sectors including steel, agriculture, automobile parks, and cultural industries.
The NCSP Director-General reaffirmed the organisation’s commitment to measurable results, noting that the partnership with PICTT will prioritise initiatives that deliver direct national impact.
The MoU signals a new phase of Nigeria–China cooperation focused on practical delivery, local content, and opportunities that improve everyday livelihoods.
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EU hits Meta with antitrust probe over plans to block AI rivals from WhatsApp
EU regulators launched an antitrust investigation into Meta Platforms on Thursday over its rollout of artificial intelligence features in its WhatsApp messenger that would block rivals, hardening Europe’s already tough stance on Big Tech. The move, reported earlier by Reuters and the Financial Times, is the latest action by European Union regulators against large technology firms such as Amazon and Alphabet’s Google as the bloc seeks to balance support for the sector with efforts to curb its expanding influence.
Europe’s tough stance – a marked contrast to more lenient U.S. regulation – has sparked an industry pushback, particularly by U.S. tech titans, and led to criticism from the administration of U. S. President Donald Trump. The European Commission said that the investigation will look into Meta’s new policy that would limit other AI providers’ access to WhatsApp, a potential boost for its own Meta AI system integrated into the platform earlier this year.
EU antitrust chief Teresa Ribera said the move was to prevent dominant firms from “abusing their power to crowd out innovative competitors”. She added interim measures could be imposed to block Meta’s new WhatsApp AI policy rollout. “AI markets are booming in Europe and beyond,” she said. This is why we are investigating if Meta’s new policy might be illegal under competition rules, and whether we should act quickly to prevent any possible irreparable harm to competition in the AI space.”
A WhatsApp spokesperson called the claims “baseless”, adding that the emergence of chatbots on its platforms had put a “strain on our systems that they were not designed to support”, a reference to AI systems from other providers. “Still, the AI space is highly competitive and people have access to the services of their choice in any number of ways, including app stores, search engines, email services, partnership integrations, and operating systems.” The EU was the first in the world to establish a comprehensive legal framework for AI, setting out guardrails for AI systems and rules for certain high-risk applications in the AI Act.
Meta AI, a chatbot and virtual assistant, has been built into WhatsApp’s interface across European markets since March. The Commission said a new policy fully applicable from January 15, 2026, may block competing AI providers from reaching customers via the platform. Ribera said the probe came on the back of complaints from small AI developers about the WhatsApp policy. The Interaction Company of California, which has developed AI assistant Poke.com, has taken its grievance to the EU competition enforcer. Spanish AI startup Luzia has also talked to the Commission, a person with knowledge of the matter said.
Marvin von Hagen, co-founder and CEO of The Interaction Company of California, said if Meta was allowed to roll out its new policy, “millions of European consumers will be deprived of the possibility of enjoying new and innovative AI assistants”. Meta also risks a fine of as much as 10% of its global annual turnover if found guilty of breaching EU antitrust rules.
Italy’s antitrust watchdog opened a parallel investigation in July into allegations that Meta leveraged its market power by integrating an AI tool into WhatsApp, expanding the probe in November to examine whether Meta further abused its dominance by blocking rival AI chatbots from the messaging platform. The antitrust probe is a more traditional means of investigation than the EU’s Digital Markets Act, the bloc’s landmark legislation currently used to scrutinize Amazon’s and Microsoft’s cloud services for potential curbs. Reuters
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Billionaires are inheriting record levels of wealth, UBS report finds
The spouses and children of billionaires inherited more wealth in 2025 than in any previous year since reporting began in 2015, according to UBS’s Billionaire Ambitions Report published on Thursday. In the 12 months to April, 91 people became billionaires through inheritance, collectively receiving $298 billion, up more than a third from 2024, the Swiss bank said. “These heirs are proof of a multi-year wealth transfer that’s intensifying,” UBS executive Benjamin Cavalli said.
The report is based on a survey of some of UBS’s super-rich clients and a database that tracks the wealth of billionaires across 47 markets in all world regions. At least $5.9 trillion will be inherited by billionaire children over the next 15 years, the bank calculates.
Most of this inheritance growth is set to take place in the United States, with India, France, Germany and Switzerland next on the list, UBS estimated. However, billionaires are highly mobile, especially younger ones, which could change that picture, it added. The search for a better quality of life, geopolitical concerns and tax considerations are driving decisions to relocate, according to the report.
In Switzerland, where $206 billion will be inherited over the next 15 years according to the bank, voters on Sunday overwhelmingly rejected 50 per cent tax on inherited fortunes of $62 million or more, after critics said it could trigger an exodus of wealthy people.
Switzerland, the UAE, the U.S. and Singapore are among billionaires’ preferred destinations, UBS’s Cavalli said. “In Switzerland, Sunday’s vote may have helped to increase the country’s appeal again,” he said. Reuters
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