Economy
Debt overhang looms over Africa fragile economic recovery—World Bank
Africa’s pace of economic growth is set to pick up this year but the recovery remains patchy and debt levels are soaring, adding urgency to the continent’s drive to boost trade, experts told the World Economic Forum on Africa. There are clear bright spots. Five of the world’s fastest-growing economies – Ghana, Ethiopia, Senegal, Côte d’Ivoire and Rwanda – are in sub-Saharan Africa, said Albert Zeufack, Chief Economist for Africa at the World Bank. Still, the macroeconomic threats to the region are growing as escalating trade tensions between China and the United States threaten a global slowdown.
“The risks to the macro outlook are mostly on the downside,” Zeufack said. “The recovery on the continent will remain fragile.” Rising debt levels are fuelling vulnerabilities, especially as external debt is shifting from the public to the private sector, making it imperative to keep Africa’s growth engine humming smoothly. “For as long as you have improving growth prospects and for as long as you are able to contain deficits, then the debt situation can be contained,” said Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank. The African Development Bank forecasts the continent’s GDP will increase by 4.0 per cent this year, up from 3.5 per cent in 2018, putting its growth rate ahead of the global average. But the World Bank has a more cautious view for sub-Saharan Africa, where growth is expected to increase to 2.8 per cent from 2.3 per cent in 2018.
Worryingly, growth in Africa’s two largest economies and its biggest democracies, South Africa and Nigeria, is holding the continent back. Kganyago said stripping out these two from the calculation leaves the rest of Africa with a much more respectable growth rate above 5 per cent. Whatever the final figures, though, it is clear Africa needs to move up a gear if it is to make a dent on chronic unemployment levels and offer hope to millions of youngsters now entering the workforce, thereby capitalising on a much-vaunted “demographic dividend. Having a youthful continent is a huge opportunity but a huge threat as well. It’s a threat if we do not get that population to start really working,” said Zeufack. Massive investment will be needed to give the next generation of Africans the skills needed for jobs in the services and manufacturing sectors as Africa diversifies away from reliance on volatile commodities.
The continent also has to close a huge infrastructure gap if it is to realise the promise of the recently created African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). That means better roads, ports, railways, air links and networks of fibre-optic cables. A borderless Africa holds vast potential but getting there will take many years and require close collaboration with the private sector – the only viable source for much of the capital needed for infrastructure upgrades. Currently, Africa has the lowest percentage of intra-regional trade in the world at just 18 per cent, compared with 70 per cent in Europe. Even a modest improvement, driven by the AfCFTA, would unlock significant growth by allowing industries to develop across borders and create economies of scale.
“I think it’s a game-changer. We’re talking about 1.2 billion people on the continent and a combined GDP of $3.4 trillion,” said Olusola David-Borha, Chief Executive, Africa, at Standard Bank Group. “Those countries that prepare early, I believe, will be the winners.” Much of the industry of tomorrow will have a digital backbone, she added, changing the employment landscape in Africa, just as the Fourth Industrial Revolution is upending work practices globally. Kganyago said this requires a new mind-set from organised labour and a shift away from outmoded views of job protection. “You can’t protect jobs – it’s just a wrong approach. We can protect people and that is what we should be focusing on,” said the South African central bank head.
The 2019 World Economic Forum on Africa takes place 4-6 September in Cape Town, South Africa, under the theme Shaping Inclusive Growth and Shared Futures in the Fourth Industrial Revolution. The meeting will convene more than 1,000 regional and global leaders from government, business, civil society and academia. This gathering will explore new models to help Africa achieve success at a time when technology is creating dramatic economic and societal shifts. The meeting’s highly interactive programme will also cover issues as diverse as skills and education, the ocean economy, the economic impact of drones, free trade and e-commerce. The Co-Chairs of the 2019 World Economic on Africa are Ellen Agler, Chief Executive Officer, The END Fund, USA; Jeremy Farrar, Director, Wellcome Trust, United Kingdom; Arancha Gonzalez Laya, Executive Director, International Trade Centre (ITC), Geneva; André Hoffmann, Vice-Chairman, Roche, Switzerland; Alex Liu, Managing Partner and Chairman, A. T. Kearney, USA; Jim Ovia, Chairman, Zenith Bank, Nigeria; and Sipho M. Pityana, Chairman, AngloGold Ashanti, South Africa.
The Arab Africa Trade Bridges (AATB) Program and the Federal Republic of Nigeria formalized a partnership with the signing of the AATB Membership Agreement, officially welcoming Nigeria as the Program’s newest member country. The signing ceremony took place in Abuja on the sidelines of the 5th AATB Board of Governors Meeting, hosted by the Federal Government of Nigeria.
The Membership Agreement was signed by Eng. Adeeb Y. Al Aama, the CEO of the International Islamic Trade Finance Corporation (ITFC) and AATB Program Secretary General, and H.E. Mr. Wale Edun, Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Federal Republic of Nigeria. The Agreement will provide a strategic and operational framework to support Nigeria’s efforts in trade competitiveness, promote export diversification, strengthen priority value chains, and advance capacity-building efforts in line with national development priorities. Areas of collaboration will include trade promotion, agribusiness modernization, SME development, businessmen missions, trade facilitation, logistics efficiency, and digital trade readiness.
The Honourable Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr. Wale Edun, called for deeper trade collaboration between African and Arab nations, stressing the importance of value-added Agribusiness and industrial partnerships for regional growth. Speaking in Abuja at the Agribusiness Matchmaking Forum ahead of the AATB Board of Governors Meeting, the Minister said the shifting global economy makes it essential for African and Arab nations to rely more on regional cooperation, investment and shared markets.
He highlighted projections showing Arab-Africa trade could grow by more than US$37 billion in the next three years and urged partners to prioritize value addition rather than raw commodity exports. He noted that Nigeria’s growing industrial base and upcoming National Single Window reforms will support efficiency, investment and private-sector expansion.
“This is a moment to turn opportunity into action”, he said. “By working together, we can build stronger value chains, create jobs and support prosperity across our regions”, Edun emphasized. “As African and Arab nations embark on this journey of deeper trade collaboration, the potential for growth and development is vast. With a shared vision and commitment to value-added partnerships, we can unlock new opportunities, drive economic growth, and create a brighter future for our people.”
Speaking during the event, Eng. Adeeb Y. Al Aama, Chief Executive Officer of ITFC and Secretary General of the AATB Program, stated: “We are pleased to welcome Nigeria to be part of the AATB Program. Nigeria stands as one of Africa’s most dynamic and resilient economies in Africa, with a rapidly expanding private sector and strong potential across agribusiness, energy, manufacturing, and digital industries. Through this Membership Agreement, we look forward to collaborating closely with Nigerian institutions to strengthen value chains, expand regional market access, enhance trade finance and investment opportunities, and support the country’s development priorities.”
The signing of this Agreement underscores AATB’s continued engagement with African countries and its evolving portfolio of programs supporting trade and investment. In recent years, AATB has worked on initiatives across agribusiness, textiles, logistics, digital trade, export readiness under the AfCFTA framework, and other regional initiatives such as the Common African Agro-Parks (CAAPs) Programme.
With Nigeria’s accession, the AATB Program extends it’s presence in the region and adds a key partner working toward advancing trade-led development and fostering inclusive economic growth.
Federal Executive Council (FEC) has approved the 2026–2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF), a key fiscal document that outlines Nigeria’s revenue expectations, macroeconomic assumptions, and spending priorities for the next three years. The approval followed Wednesday’s FEC meeting presided over by President Bola Tinubu at the State House, Abuja. The Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Senator Atiku Bagudu made this known after the meeting.
The Minister said the Federal Government is projecting a total revenue inflow of N34.33 trillion in 2026, including N4.98 trillion expected from government-owned enterprises. Bagudu said that the projected revenue is N6.55 trillion lower than earlier estimates, adding that federal allocations are expected to drop by about N9.4 trillion, representing a 16% decline compared to the 2025 budget.
He said that statutory transfers are expected to amount to about N3 trillion within the same fiscal year. On macroeconomic assumptions, FEC adopted an oil production benchmark of 2.6 million barrels per day (mbpd) for 2026, although a more conservative 1.8 mbpd will be used for budgeting purposes. An oil price benchmark of $64 per barrel and an exchange rate of N1,512 per dollar were also approved.
Bagudu said the exchange rate assumption reflects projections tied to economic and political developments ahead of the 2027 general elections. He said the exchange rate assumption took into account the fiscal outlook ahead of the 2027 general elections.
The minister said that all the parameters were based on macroeconomic analysis by the Budget Office and other relevant agencies. Bagudu said FEC also reviewed comments from cabinet members before approving the Medium-Term Fiscal Expenditure Ceiling (MFTEC), which sets expenditure limits. Earlier, the Senate approved the external borrowing plan of $21.5 billion presented by President Tinubu for consideration The loans, according to the Senate, were part of the MTEF and Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP) for the 2025 budget.
The spot rate on Nigerian Treasury bills has been increased by 146 basis points by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) following tight subscription levels at the main auction on Wednesday. The spot rate on Treasury bills with one-year maturity has now surpassed Nigeria’s 16.05% inflation by 145 basis points following a recent decision to keep the policy rate at 27%.
The Apex Bank came to the primary market with N700 billion Treasury bills offer size across standard tenors, including 91-day, 182-day and 364 day maturities. Details from the auction results showed that demand settled slightly above the total offers as investors began to seek higher returns on naira assets despite disinflation.
Total subscription came in at about N775 billion versus N700 billion offers floated at the main auction. The results showed rising appetite for duration as investors parked about 90% of their bids on Nigerian Treasury bills with 364 days maturity. The CBN opened N100 billion worth of 91 days bills for subscription, but the offer received underwhelming bids totalling N44.17 billion.
The CBN allotted N42.80 billion for the short-term instrument at the spot rate of 15.30%, the same as the previous auction. Total demand for 182 days Nigerian Treasury bills settled at N33.38 billion as against N150 billion that the authority pushed out for subscription. The CBN raised N30.36 billion from 182 days bills allotted to investors at the spot rate of 15.50%, the same as the previous auction.
Investors staked N697.29 billion on N450 billion in 364-day Treasury bills that was offered for subscription. The CBN raised N636.46 billion from the longest tenor at the spot rate of 17.50%, up from 16.04% at the previous auction.
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