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FG in a fix over $9bn P&ID corporate judgement debt

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Nigeria potentially faces the largest financial liability in its history, and a hedge fund is coming to collect. The legal and political drama involves a deal between the country and a tiny natural gas company that was scuttled after the sudden death of Nigeria’s president in 2010. The company, Process & Industrial Developments (P&ID), sued and won a staggering judgment, now worth $9 billion. But it’s spent years trying to get the country to pay that award, equivalent to almost 2.5 per cent of its annual gross domestic product. Now a hedge fund managed by VR Capital Group has taken a large stake in P&ID. And the gas company is trying to pull levers of power in the U.S. and the U.K. to make Nigeria settle or, failing that, enable the company to start seizing assets.

Two years ago, P&ID won a decision against the government of Nigeria, which reneged on an agreement allowing the natural gas company to harvest hydrocarbons. Although lawyers for Nigeria say the company never put a shovel in the ground, a London arbitration tribunal in 2017 awarded it $6.6 billion—with more than $1 million in interest accruing daily. To collect, P&ID, owned by the hedge fund and a firm called Lismore Capital Ltd., late last year hired lobbyists, lawyers, and a public-relations firm. The attorneys are also trying to confirm the award in courtrooms in Washington and London, which would allow P&ID to start seizing Nigerian assets in the U.S. and the U.K. Representatives from VR Capital, which is managed by Richard Deitz, didn’t respond to multiple requests for comment. Dayo Apata, Nigeria’s solicitor general, said in a statement that the country “will ensure that its interests and that of the people of Nigeria are vigorously defended.” He wrote that the arbitration panel assumed too much confidence in the success of P&ID’s project in calculating the damages, leading to an excessive award.

In a statement, Brendan Cahill, one of P&ID’s founders, said “it is disappointing that Nigeria chose to repudiate the terms of a deal that would have benefited the country by bringing electricity to millions of its citizens.” He said the company, “backed by its investors,” would pursue enforcement of the award. VR Capital’s bet appears to be the latest example of a tactic used by investors in distressed assets. Companies including Paulson & Co., Elliot Management, and Pershing Square Capital Management in the past several years have taken stakes in investments that few would touch, and then hired lawyers and lobbyists to change the political winds to make them succeed. The strategy worked for Elliott and its co-investors when they won a massive settlement on defaulted Argentine debt. The outcome is less certain for some Puerto Rico bondholders and shareholders in U.S. mortgage finance companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

The Nigerian saga began almost a decade ago and is revealed through court and arbitration filings and other public documents. Despite the country’s ample natural resources, Nigeria’s state-owned electric and petroleum companies have struggled to power the country. To help fix the problem, in 2010 then-President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua authorised partnerships with private companies to develop the nation’s energy infrastructure. The Ministry of Petroleum Resources struck one such agreement in January 2010 with P&ID, which was founded in 2006 by two Irishmen, Michael Quinn and Cahill. Under the agreement, Nigeria planned to pipe natural gas from two offshore oil rigs to a refinery that would be built by P&ID. There, P&ID would remove hydrocarbons from the gas and send the fuel to Nigerian power plants. P&ID wouldn’t get paid for the endeavour, but it could keep and sell the hydrocarbon byproducts, which themselves had value, with the government getting a cut.

The company hoped it would make billions of dollars from the arrangement while helping to provide Nigeria with much-needed power. Quinn, in a statement before an arbitration panel, said he thought the deal would have been “the high point of my own career in Nigerian business.” He said P&ID spent tens of millions of dollars on preparatory work before winning the agreement.

But the project never got off the ground. In May 2010, Yar’Adua, who’d been suffering from pericarditis, died. The oil rigs couldn’t provide the volume of natural gas promised in the agreement, and, in any case, the government didn’t construct the pipeline. After about two years of trying to resolve its dispute with the government, P&ID filed for arbitration in London, where the agreement specified disputes would be handled. The arbiters sided with P&ID. The Nigerian government appealed the decision in London, arguing that the petroleum ministry didn’t have the authority to enter into the agreement and the arbitration panel used the wrong legal standard. The government lost there, though it also turned to Nigeria’s court system, where it won.

Then the London arbiters came back with an award amount. P&ID never broke ground on the natural gas refinery, but said it spent about $40 million in the planning stages. It calculated its damages by estimating the profits it believed it would have earned over 20 years had the project gone forward: about $6 billion. Two of the three arbiters granted the enormous award. The third also said there should be damages, but set the level much lower. At some point, the Cayman-based fund, VR Advisory Services Ltd., bought 25 percent of P&ID, according to public records. A P&ID spokeswoman declined to comment on when VR bought its stake or to identify the owner of Lismore Capital. Last fall two firms registered with the U.S. Senate to lobby Congress and the Trump administration on behalf of the energy company. One of them, Kobre & Kim, which also represents P&ID in the District of Columbia courtroom, has a history of attempting to enforce judgments against foreign governments. The other, DCI Group, has made a specialty of public-relations work for Wall Street companies that attempt to use public pressure to make bets pay off. DCI in January said it had made $80,000 in fees in the fourth quarter from P&ID and lobbied the U.S. Department of State. Black Diamond Strategies LLC, which is stocked with conservative lobbyists, has also disclosed that DCI hired it for lobbying work on P&ID’s behalf.

The battle made headlines in Nigeria, where President Muhammadu Buhari was campaigning for a second term. (He won in February.) In November, when Nigerian officials visited the U.K. to pitch an offering of bonds, columnists there said Nigeria had to pay P&ID if it hoped to raise money from British investors. This prompted some in the Nigerian press to accuse commentators of being hired to attack Buhari. Cheta Nwanze, an analyst at Lagos-based risk advisory firm SBM Intelligence, says the government should have resolved the dispute and moved on. He says the president’s decision not to do so “has now caused a liability far exceeding any the country has ever incurred.”

Bloomberg

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15% petrol import tax requires strategic roll out – LCCI

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Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) has stressed the need for a measured and strategic rollout of the 15 per cent petroleum import tax to ensure sustainable economic impact. The Director-General, LCCI, Dr Chinyere Almona, gave the advice in a statement on Monday in Lagos. Almona noted the recent decision by the Federal Government to impose a 15 per cent import tax on petrol and diesel, a move aimed at curbing import dependence and promoting local refining capacity.

She said while the policy direction aligned with the nation’s long-term objective of achieving energy self-sufficiency and naira strengthening, a strategic rollout was imperative. Almona said that Nigeria was already experiencing cost-of-living pressures, supply-chain, and inflation challenges and that the business community would be sensitive to further cost shocks. “The chamber recognises that discouraging fuel importation is a necessary step towards achieving domestic energy security, stimulating investment in local refineries, and deepening the downstream petroleum value chain.

“However, LCCI expresses concern about the current adequacy of local refining capacity to meet national demand. A premature restriction on imports, without sufficient domestic production, could lead to supply shortages, higher pump prices, and inflationary pressures across critical sectors,” she said. Almona called on the Federal Government to prioritise the full operationalisation and optimisation of local refineries, both public and private, including modular refineries and the recently revitalised major refining facilities. She said that a comprehensive framework for crude oil supply to these refineries in Naira rather than foreign exchange would significantly enhance cost efficiency, stabilise production, and strengthen the local value chain.

She said the chamber’s interest lied in a diversified downstream sector where multiple refineries, modular plants, and logistics firms thrive. She urged government to resolve outstanding labour union issues and create an enabling environment that fostered industrial harmony and private sector confidence.

According to her, ensuring clarity, consistency, and transparency in the implementation of the new tax regime will be crucial in preventing market distortions and sustaining investor trust. “While the reform is justified from an industrial policy standpoint, its success depends on practical implementation, robust safeguards, and parallel reforms to alleviate cost burdens on businesses and consumers. With local capacity not yet established, this tax will increase the cost of fuels as long as imports continue. Government needs to address the inhibiting factors against local production and refining before imposing this levy to discourage imports and support local production,” she said.

Almona recommended that the implementation of the tax policy be postponed. She advised that during the transition period government demonstrate its commitment through action by empowering local refiners through an efficient crude-for-Naira supply chain that ensured sufficient crude. “With this, refiners can boost their refining capacity with a stable supply of crude and adequately meet domestic demand at competitive rates. At this point, the imposition of an import tax will directly discourage importation and boost demand for the locally refined products,” she said.

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Update: Sanwo-Olu, others harp on stronger private sector role to drive AfCFTA success

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Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu of Lagos State has urged the private sector to take a stronger, more coordinated role in driving the successful implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

Sanwo-Olu, who made the call at the NEPAD Business Group Nigeria High-Level Business Forum, held on Thursday in Lagos, said that the agreement holds the key to transforming Africa into a globally competitive economic powerhouse. The theme of the forum is “Mobilising Africa’s Private Sector for AfCFTA Towards Africa’s Economic Development Amid Global Uncertainty”.

It brought together policymakers, business leaders, and development experts from across the continent. Sanwo-Olu was represented by the Lagos State Commissioner for Commerce, Cooperatives, Trade and Investment, Mrs Folashade Ambrose-Medebem. The governor said AfCFTA had the potential to lift millions of Africans out of poverty, but only if the continent’s business community seized the opportunity to scale production and integrate value chains across borders. “Governments can negotiate tariffs and treaties, but businesses must produce, export, invest, and believe in cross-border possibilities.

The private sector is the true engine of trade and industrialisation; without it, AfCFTA will remain a document and not a driver of development,” Sanwo-Olu said. He said that Lagos State had continued to create an enabling business environment through deliberate investments in infrastructure, logistics and technology, all designed to enhance productivity and trade efficiency. “From our vibrant tech ecosystem in Yaba to the Lekki Deep Sea Port and the expanding industrial corridors of the state, we are building a Lagos that supports trade, innovation, and investment,” he added. The governor stressed the need to empower Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs), which he described as “the lifeblood of Africa’s economy”.

He said access to finance, mentorship, and digital tools remained essential for their growth. “Through the Lagos State Employment Trust Fund (LSETF), we have supported thousands of entrepreneurs with training and access to funding. When SMEs thrive, our communities grow, jobs are created, and the promise of AfCFTA becomes real,” Sanwo-Olu noted. In his goodwill message, Dr Abdulrashid Yerima, President of the Nigerian Association of Small and Medium Enterprises (NASME), called on African governments to align policy frameworks with the realities of the private sector to ensure the success of AfCFTA.

Yerima said Africa’s shared prosperity depended on how effectively the continent could mobilise its entrepreneurs and innovators to take advantage of the 1.4 billion-strong continental market. “As private sector leaders, the employers of labour and creators of opportunity, we must move from aspiration to achievement, from potential to performance. AfCFTA is not just an agreement; it is Africa’s blueprint for collective economic independence,” he said. He emphasised the importance of strengthening cooperation among business coalitions, cooperatives, and industrial clusters to ensure that micro and small enterprises benefit from cross-border trade opportunities. “No SME can scale alone in a continental market.

We must build strong business networks that allow small enterprises to grow into regional champions,” he stressed. Yerima further encouraged African nations to adopt global best practices and digital frameworks, such as the OECD Digital for SMEs (D4SME) initiative, to improve access to knowledge, technology, and markets. Also speaking at the event, Mr Samuel Dossou-Aworet, President of the African Business Roundtable (ABR), urged African leaders to fully harness AfCFTA’s opportunities to build inclusive and sustainable economies. Dossou-Aworet noted that while Africa was currently the world’s second-fastest-growing region after Asia, sustained growth would require greater industrialisation and investment in human capital.

“The entry into force of the AfCFTA has expanded Africa’s investment frontiers. Where once our markets were fragmented, we now have a unified platform for trade and production. But growth must be inclusive, not just in numbers, but in impact on people’s lives,” he noted. Citing data from the African Development Bank (AfDB), Dossou-Aworet observed that 12 of the world’s 20 fastest-growing economies in 2025 are African, including Rwanda, Côte d’Ivoire, and Senegal. However, he cautioned that Africa’s GDP growth of around four per cent remained below the seven per cent threshold needed to significantly reduce poverty. “We must ensure that growth translates into better jobs, infrastructure, and access to opportunities for women and youth,” he stressed. He also called for innovative financing models to bridge Africa’s infrastructure gap and improve competitiveness in the global market.

“Africa needs market access and trade facilitation mechanisms to enable its products to reach global markets. Access to affordable capital is key, and our financial systems must evolve to support trade,” he added. Dossou-Aworet reaffirmed the African Business Roundtable’s commitment to supporting enterprise development and promoting Africa as a prime destination for investment. “This is Africa’s moment. If we work together, government, business, and citizens, we will build an Africa that competes confidently in the global economy and delivers prosperity for its people.”

The forum, convened by the NEPAD Business Group Nigeria, brought together regional and international partners to strengthen collaboration between public and private sectors in advancing AfCFTA’s goals. Chairman of the group, Chief J.K. Randle, commended the participation of leading business executives and policymakers, saying it reflected Africa’s readiness to take ownership of its economic destiny. Randle said, “We can no longer rely on external forces to drive our growth. The private sector must rise as the torchbearer of Africa’s transformation under AfCFTA.” He added that the forum would continue to serve as a platform for dialogue, knowledge exchange, and action planning to position African enterprises at the centre of global trade.

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First ever China–Europe Cargo transit completed via the Arctic route

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The first-ever container transit from China to Europe via the Northern Sea Route (NSR) arrived at the British port of Felixstowe on October 13, 2025. The voyage marked a breakthrough in developing the NSR as a sustainable and high-tech transport corridor connecting Asia and Europe. The development of this Arctic route reflects the steady expansion of global trade flows — an evolution that reaches every continent, including Africa, where maritime industries and energy corridors continue to expand.
The ship carrying nearly 25,000 tonnes of cargo departed from Ningbo on September 23 and entered the NSR on October 1. Navigation and information support was provided by Glavsevmorput, a subsidiary of Rosatom State Atomic Energy Corporation. The Arctic leg of the voyage took 20 days, cutting transit time almost by half compared with traditional southern routes. This new pathway complements existing ones, creating broader opportunities for efficient and sustainable logistics worldwide.
The Northern Sea Route is developing rapidly, becoming a viable and efficient global logistics route. This is facilitated by various factors, including the development of advanced technologies, the construction of new-generation nuclear icebreakers, and growing interest from international shippers. Working in the Arctic is challenging but we are transforming these challenges into results. Along with the main priority of ensuring the safety of navigation on the Northern Sea Route, managing the speed and time of passage along the route is becoming an important task for us today,” noted Rosatom State Corporation Special Representative for Arctic Development Vladimir Panov.
The Northern Sea Route, spanning about 5,600 km, links the western part of Eurasia with the Asia-Pacific region. In 2024, cargo turnover reached 37.9 million tonnes, surpassing the previous year’s record by more than 1.6 million. Container traffic between Russia and China doubled compared to 2023, and by mid-2025, 17 container voyages had already been completed, moving 280,000 tonnes — a 59% increase year-on-year.
The expansion of this Arctic transport route is becoming part of a broader global effort to strengthen connectivity and diversify supply chains. For Africa and the wider Global South these developments demonstrate how innovation in logistics can stimulate new opportunities for trade, technology exchange, and sustainable growth. As new corridors emerge, the world’s regions are becoming more closely linked — not in competition, but in collaboration — shaping a more resilient and interconnected global economy.

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