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Fiscal federalism will make Nigeria great again

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At 53 a man is of age. In a developing country like Nigeria, at 53 a man has ground children who call him papa. But it is not the same with a nation. Nigeria at 53 is relatively young. When Nigeria gained independence in 1960, it was like a young man on a very promising journey. The journey was smooth for the first six years. Along the smooth way, it had an accident and was fatally wounded. The wound was not treated because of the pains it inflicted on the foundation of the country. It was allowed to linger on. Then gangrene has set in and now the leg requires amputation. “The Nigeria accident was the military incursion into politics in 1966.
Nigeria after Independence was on the right path of economic growth and development. It had visionary leaders who were interested in the welfare of the people. Industries were springing up in every region of the country. In the North Ahmedu Bello who held sway was occupied by setting up farm settlements, textile industries. It was the same story in the East was Michael Opera set up farm settlements and a number of manufacturing companies. In the West, Chief Awolowo apart from the popular free education he gave to the region set up a number of industrial estates which attracted several companies from abroad. It is this simple reason that the west is the most industrialized part of the country. At this time the Nigeria economy was in top shape and at take off stage in economic development. The Nigerian economy was rated along the same indices with Brazil, Indonesia, Malaysia and the rest of the now talked about BRICs countries. Then Nigeria had development plans that guided the nation. In the North was found pyramids of ground nuts and cotton were part of foreign exchange earning commodities from the north. In the west cocoa was found in abundance. It brought pride to the nation. The various regions were autonomous entity The military intervention and the discovery of crude oil in commercial quantity seemed to have radically altered the course of Nigeria economic development.While the military discarded the fiscal federalism structure of the federation and made the states to become federal allocation collector, the discovery oil made Nigeria leaders to sleep walk and refuse to plan believing that the money flowing from the ground will solve all the nation problems. As the military leaders were sleep walking and basking in the euphoria of petro dollar earnings from oil, Nigeria’s population was growing faster than the resources
Peter Drucker the management expert in his book the practice of management wrote that “Innovation is the specific instrument of entrepreneurship, the act that endows resources with a new capacity to create wealth. Nigeria military leaders did not yield to the management advice that management must always, in every decision and action, put economic performance first. It can only justify its existence and its authority by the economic results it produces. There may be great non-economic results: the happiness of the members of the enterprise, the contribution to the welfare or culture of the community, etc. Yet management has failed if it fails to produce economic results. It has failed if it does not supply goods and services desired by the consumer at a price the consumer is willing to pay. It has failed if it does not improve or at least maintain the wealth-producing capacity of the economic resources entrusted to it. During this period there was no serious investment in power and other critical infrastructure, the ones that was available were not maintained and infrastructural decay had to set in making many to feel that Nigeria is a failed state.
This is far from the truth. Nigeria is a land of ample opportunity and immense possibility. In a fast changing and evolving world, where weaklings of yester years have become economic giant and the strong of yesterday are fading in economic glory and becoming weaklings, Nigeria has a chance to make a difference. Twenty years ago, no development economist would have accepted any theory that postulated the emergence of China, India and Brazil as economic power houses. Today China is almost the largest economy in the world beating United Kingdom, Japan, France, Germany and Italy. According to the United Nations economic data the global economy Gross Domestic Product as at 2010 was $62.6 trillion. Of this the United States of America accounted for $14.447 trillion as the largest economy in the world. It is followed by China with a GDP of $5.739 trillion making it the second largest economy.
Japan the third largest has $5.458 trillion GDP. Germany which is fourth has a GDP of $3.280 trillion while France the fifth has $2.559 trillion GDP. Britain which dominated the world for decade as the economy to beat is now a distant 6th economy in the committee of nations. Nigeria is occupying 47th position with a GDP of $238.920 billion. This shows that from the peak there is only one easy way to go: downwards. It always requires twice as much effort and skill to stay up as it did to climb up. In other words, there is real danger today that in retrospect the United States of 1950 may come to look like the Great Britain of 1880—doomed to decline for lack of vision and lack of effort. Going by the current trend and projection by 2020 there will be a major shift in the global balance of economic power compared to 2010. Emerging economies will rise in importance and China would have overtaken the USA to lead the list of the world’s top 10 largest economies by GDP measured in PPP terms.
Looking at the Nigerian economy in the last few years since the return to democratic governance, from global perspective, foreign investors are now looking to Africa, Nigeria and Kenya in particular. There seems to be a tide, the type Shakespeare spoke about, in the economic affairs of Nigeria if only policymakers can see beyond their noses and take the tide at its flood to give Nigeria an economic take-off to recover from the missed opportunities in the late and early 1980s. Investors are seeing what most Nigerians are not seeing. The complaint of lack of infrastructure, epileptic power supply, low industrial base etc., are fast becoming opportunities to foreign investors.
At the Reuters Africa investors’ forum in Johannesburg early this year, foreign investors who have their businesses in Nigeria and other African countries were quoted as saying; “If you want to ride Africa’s business boom, choose your country well and be ready for bumps on the road. But the momentum is upward and you will be rewarded if you stay the course.” African policymakers and chief executives of companies operating in Africa are spreading this upbeat message, as interest in what was once dubbed the “hopeless continent” blossoms along with growth rates.
During the year Global X Funds listed the first Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) on the New York Stock Exchange to track Nigerian stocks. The head of the Fund said this is a move which will enable U.S. investors to buy high growth Nigerian shares at home. Nigeria in the eyes of funds managers and economists today is growing in popularity as an investment destination, offering the promise of seven per cent economic growth and a consumer market of around 170 million people. The Nigerian stock market index rose 35 percent in 2012 but dropped to 29 per cent this year, making it the second best performer in Africa and one of the best in the world. The index is up 29 per cent so far this year and analysts expect gains to continue as strong corporate earnings trickle in. There are a massive amount of U.S. investors looking to get exposure to Nigeria.
Nigeria’s stock exchange disclosed that it is reviewing applications from some leading global investment banks to join its trading floor, as reforms aimed at improving liquidity and transparency bear fruit. Mr. Oscar Onyema, Chief Executive Officer of the Nigerian Stock Exchange told the Reuters Africa Investment Summit in Lagos that some foreign investment banks have applied to trade on the floor of the exchange. “We cannot announce which ones yet but they are in the top ten in the world,” Onyema said of the banks that had filed applications to trade on the NSE. Rencap and Standard Bank already have traders operating on the floor of the exchange. Before the stock market bubble burst in 2008, wiping nearly two thirds off its value in a year, domestic investors owned 85 percent of shares, with foreigners owning the rest. The investment tide is afoot; will Nigerian public servants, government functionaries and elected officials stop stealing and ride on the tide of development?
Come 2014, the geographical expression called Nigeria will be 100 years old. The Northern and Southern protectorates were amalgamated by Lord Lugard in 1914. The land mass in which Nigeria is located is a land flowing with milk and honey. Many have looked at the progress made in desperation and have written off the country. But many out there are seeing the Nigeria experiment as a land of great opportunity. The United States of America recently described Nigeria as the next economic success story. Apart from its natural resources, Nigeria has a young and dynamic population made up of upwardly mobile middle class. It is this middle class that current serve as attraction to the international business community as attraction because of the huge market it represents. The experience of the telecom operators in Nigeria bears this out clearly. It is for Nigeria to put its act together and get it right. Nigeria’s economy has been growing at 6-7 per cent in the last few years without regular supply of power, when eventually the country gets the power equation right, the economy will frog leap.
President Barack Obama himself declared Nigeria as the world’s next economic success story, stressing that this was one of the major reason his government was committed to helping the country build strong democratic institutions and remove constraints to trade and investment through the African Growth and Opportunity Act. Making this declaration at the US-Nigeria Trade and Investment Forum, an event organised by the Nigerians in Diaspora Organisation (NIDOA) in Washington DC, during the year, Obama who was represented by Ambassador Eunice Reddick, said that his country expanded opportunities for Nigeria to effectively access markets and diversify its economy beyond a narrow reliance on natural resources. “As we support these efforts, the Diaspora can play an important role in contributing to a strong, vibrant and economically prosperous Nigeria” he noted.

It is not only the US government that is seeing the great possibilities in Nigeria. In 2004, Goldman Sach said that Nigeria will emerge one of the 20 largest economies of the world in 2025. This was the basis of Nigeria’s vision 20-2020 by the then President Olusegun Obasanjo administration.

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Analysis

As EU plans Russian Gas exit, Ministers to convene in Paris to chart Africa’s export potential

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In the wake of seismic shifts in the European energy landscape, the Invest in African Energy (IAE) 2026 Forum in Paris will host a Ministerial Dialogue on “Unlocking Africa’s Gas Supply for Global Energy Security.” This strategic session will examine how Africa can turn its untapped gas reserves into a reliable and sustainable source of supply. With Europe seeking to diversify away from Russian gas, the dialogue highlights both the continent’s growing role in global energy markets and the opportunity for African producers to attract long-term investment. Recent developments underscore the urgency of Africa’s role in global energy security. Last month, EU countries agreed to phase out their remaining Russian gas imports, with existing contracts benefiting from a transition period: short-term contracts can continue until June 2026, while long-term contracts will run until January 2028. In parallel, the European Commission is pushing to end Russian LNG imports by January 2027 under a broader sanctions package aimed at limiting Moscow’s energy revenues.

Africa’s role in this rebalancing is already gaining momentum. Algeria recently renewed its gas supply agreement with ČEZ Group, ensuring continued deliveries to the Czech Republic. In Libya, the National Oil Corporation (NOC) has approved new compressors at the Bahr Essalam field to boost output and reinforce flows via the Greenstream pipeline to Italy. These developments complement the Structures A&E offshore project – led by Eni and the NOC – which is expected to bring two platforms online by 2026 and produce up to 750 million cubic feet per day, supporting both domestic and European demand. West Africa is pursuing ambitious export routes as well.

Nigeria, Algeria and Niger have revived the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline (TSGP), with engineering firm Penspen commissioned earlier this year to revalidate its feasibility. The proposed $25 billion Nigeria–Morocco pipeline is also advancing as a long-term corridor linking West African gas to European markets. Meanwhile, the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim (GTA) project off Mauritania and Senegal came online earlier this year, with its first phase targeting 2.3 million tons of LNG annually. In June, the project delivered its third cargo to Belgium’s Zeebrugge terminal, marking the first African LNG shipment from GTA to Europe. Together, these milestones underscore a strategic convergence: African producers are accelerating efforts to scale up exports just as Europe intensifies its search for reliable alternatives to Russian gas.

Yet, as the ministerial session will explore, unlocking Africa’s gas supply demands sustained investment, regulatory alignment, environmental management and community engagement. For Europe, diversification of supply is a strategic necessity; for African producers, it is an opportunity to accelerate development, build infrastructure and secure long-term capital. At IAE 2026, these shifts will be examined by the officials and stakeholders driving them. The Ministerial Dialogue brings African energy leaders together with European policymakers, industry players and investors in a setting that supports practical, solution-focused discussion on supply, export strategies and future cooperation. As Europe adapts its gas strategy and African producers progress major projects, the Forum provides a direct platform for ministers to outline priorities and for investors to engage with key decision-makers.

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Authorities must respond as digital tools used by organized criminals accelerate financial crime—IMF

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International Monetary Fund IMF, has said that criminals are outpacing enforcement by adapting ever faster ways to carry out digital fraud. The INF in a Blog post said the Department of Justice in June announced the largest-ever US crypto seizure: $225 million from crypto scams known as pig butchering, in which organized criminals, often across borders, use advanced technology and social engineering such as romance or investment schemes to manipulate victims. This typically involves using AI-generated profiles, encrypted messaging, and obscured blockchain transactions to hide and move stolen funds. It was a big win. Federal agents collaborated across jurisdictions and used blockchain analysis and machine learning to track thousands of wallets used to scam more than 400 victims. Yet it was also a rare victory that underscored how authorities often must play catch-up in a fast-changing digital world. And the scammers are still out there. They pick the best tools for their schemes, from laundering money through crypto and AI-enabled impersonation to producing deepfake content, encrypted apps, and decentralized exchanges. Authorities confronting anonymous, borderless threats are held back by jurisdiction, process, and legacy systems.
Annual illicit crypto activity growth has averaged about 25 percent in recent years and may have surpassed $51 billion last year, according to Chainalysis, a New York–based blockchain analysis firm specializing in helping criminal investigators trace transactions. Bad actors still depend on cash and traditional finance, and money laundering specifically relies on banks, informal money changers, and cash couriers. But the old ways are being reinforced or supercharged by technologies to thwart detection and disruption.
Encrypted messaging apps help cartels coordinate cross-border transactions. Stablecoins and lightly regulated virtual asset platforms can hide bribes and embezzled funds. Cybercriminals use AI-generated identities and bots to deceive banks and evade outdated controls. Tracking proceeds generated by organized crime is nearly impossible for underresourced agencies. AI lowers barriers to entry. Fraudsters with voice-cloning and fake-document generators bypass the verification protocols many banks and regulators still use. Their innovation is growing as compliance systems lag. Governments recognize the threats, but responses are fragmented and uneven—including in regulation of crypto exchanges. And there are delays implementing the Financial Action Task Force’s (FATF’s) “travel rule” to better identify those sending and receiving money across borders, which most digital proceeds cross.
Meanwhile, international financial flows are increasingly complicated by instant transfers on decentralized platforms and anonymity-enhancing tools. Most payments still go through multiple intermediaries, often layering cross-border transactions through antiquated correspondent banks that obscure and delay transactions while raising costs. This helps criminals exploit oversight gaps, jurisdictional coordination, and technological capacity to operate across borders, often undetected.
Regulators and fintechs should be partners, and sustained multilateral engagement should foster fast, cheap, transparent, and traceable cross-border payments. There’s a parallel narrative. Criminals exploit innovation for secrecy and speed while companies and governments test coordination to reduce vulnerabilities and modernize cross-border infrastructure. At the same time, technological implications remain underexplored with respect to anti–money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism, or AML/CFT. Singapore’s and Thailand’s linked fast payment systems, for example, enable real-time retail transfers using mobile numbers; Indonesia and Malaysia have connected QR codes for cross-border payments. Such innovations offer efficiency and inclusion yet raise new issues regarding identity verification, transaction monitoring, and regulatory coordination.
In India, the Unified payments interface enables seamless transfers across apps and platforms, highlighting the power of interoperable design. More than 18 billion monthly transactions, many across competing platforms, show how openness and standardization drive scale and inclusion. Digital payments in India grew faster when interoperability improved, especially in fragmented markets where switching was costly, IMF research shows These regional innovations and global initiatives reflect a growing understanding that fighting crime and fostering inclusion are interlinked priorities—especially as criminals speed ahead. The FATF echoed this concern, urging countries to design AML/CFT controls that support inclusion and innovation. Moreover, an FATF June recommendation marks a major advance: Requiring originator and beneficiary information for cross-border wire transfers—including those involving virtual assets—will enhance traceability across the fast-evolving digital financial ecosystem.
Efforts like these are important examples of how technology enables criminal advantage, but technology must also be part of the regulatory response.
Modernizing cross-border payment systems and reducing unintended AML/CFT barriers increasingly means focusing on transparency, interoperability, and risk-based regulation. The IMF’s work on “safe payment corridors” supports this by helping countries build trusted, secure channels for legitimate financial flows without undermining new technology. A pilot with Samoa —where de-risking has disrupted remittances—showed how targeted safeguards and collaboration with regulated providers can preserve access while maintaining financial integrity without disrupting the use of new payment platforms.
Several countries, with IMF guidance, are investing in machine learning to detect anomalies in cross-border financial flows, and others are tightening regulation of virtual asset service providers. Governments are investing in their own capacity to trace crypto transfers, and blockchain analytics firms are often employed to do that. IMF analysis of cross-border flows and the updated FATF rules are mutually reinforcing. If implemented cohesively, they can help digital efficiency coexist with financial integrity. For that to happen, legal frameworks must adapt to enable timely access to digital evidence while preserving due process. Supervisory models need to evolve to oversee both banks and nonbank financial institutions offering cross-border services. Regulators and fintechs should be partners, and sustained multilateral engagement should foster fast, cheap, transparent, and traceable cross-border payments—anchored interoperable standards that also respect privacy.
Governments must keep up. That means investing in regulatory technology, such as AI-powered transaction monitoring and blockchain analysis, and giving agencies tools and expertise to detect complex crypto schemes and synthetic identity fraud. Institutions must keep pace with criminals by hiring and retaining expert data scientists and financial crime specialists. Virtual assets must be brought under AML/CFT regulation, public-private partnerships should codevelop tools to spot emerging risks, and global standards from the FATF and the Financial Stability Board must be backed by national investments in effective AML/CFT frameworks.
Consistent and coordinated implementation is important. Fragmented efforts leave openings for criminals. Their growing technological advantage over governments threatens to undermine financial integrity, destabilize economies, weaken already fragile institutions, and erode public trust in systems meant to ensure safety and fairness. As crime rings adopt and adapt emerging technologies to outpace enforcement, the cost is not only fiscal—it is structural and systemic. Governments can’t wait. The criminals won’t.

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Multilateral development banks reaffirm commitment to climate finance, pledge innovative funding for adaptation

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Multilateral development banks have reaffirmed their commitment to climate finance, pledging to scale up innovative funding to boost climate adaptation and resilience. “Financing climate resilience is not a cost, but an investment.” This was the key message from senior MDB officials at the end of a side event organised by the Climate Investment Funds (CIF) on the opening day of the 30th United Nations Climate Conference (COP30) in Belém, Brazil.

The conference runs from 10 to 21 November. During a panel discussion titled “Accelerating large-scale climate change adaptation,” MDB representatives, including the African Development Bank Group, outlined how their institutions are fulfilling Paris Agreement commitments by mobilising substantial and innovative resources for climate adaptation and mitigation. Ilan Goldfajn, President of the Inter-American Development Bank Group, emphasised that “resilience is more than a concern for the future: it is also essential for development today.” He announced that MDBs are tripling their financing for resilience over the next decade, targeting $42 billion by 2030.

“At the Inter-American Development Bank, we are turning preparedness into protection and resilience into opportunity,” Goldfajn added. Tanja Faller, Director of Technical Evaluation and Monitoring at the Council of Europe Development Bank, stressed that climate change “not only creates new threats, but also amplifies existing inequalities. The most socially vulnerable people are the hardest hit and the last to recover. This is how a climate crisis also becomes a social crisis.” Representatives from the Islamic Development Bank, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, the Asian Development Bank, the World Bank Group, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development,  the European Investment Bank, the New Development Bank and IDB Invest (the private sector arm of the Inter-American Development Bank Group) also shared concrete examples of successful adaptation investments and strategies for mobilising new resources.

Kevin Kariuki, Vice President of the African Development Bank Group in charge of Power, Energy, Climate and Green Growth, presented the Bank’s leadership in advancing climate adaptation and mitigation. “At the African Development Bank, we understand the priorities of our countries: adaptation and mitigation are at the heart of our climate interventions.” He highlighted the creation of the Climate Action Window, a new financing mechanism under the African Development Fund, the Bank Group’s concessional window for low-income countries.

“The African Development Bank is the only multilateral development bank with a portfolio of adaptation projects ready for investment through the Climate Action Window,” Kariuki noted, adding that Germany, the United Kingdom and Switzerland are among key co-financing partners. Kariuki also showcased the Bank’s YouthADAPT programme, which has invested $5.4 million in 41 youth-led enterprises across 20 African countries, generating more than 10,000 jobs — 61 percent of which are led by women, and mobilising an additional $7 million in private and donor funding.

Representatives from Zambia, Mozambique and Jamaica also shared local perspectives on the financing needs of communities most exposed to climate risk. The panel followed the official opening of COP30, marked by a passionate appeal from Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for greater climate investment to prevent a “tragedy for humanity.”

“Without the Paris Agreement, we would see a 4–5°C increase in global temperatures,” Lula warned. “Our call to action is based on three pillars: honouring commitments; accelerating public action with a roadmap enabling humanity to move away from fossil fuels and deforestation; and placing humanity at the heart of the climate action programme: thousands of people are living in poverty and deprivation as a result of climate change. The climate emergency is a crisis of inequality,” he continued.

“We must build a future that is not doomed to tragedy. We must ensure that we live in a world where we can still dream.” Outgoing COP President Mukhtar Babayevn, Azerbaijan’s Minister of Ecology, urged developed nations to fulfil their promises made at the Baku Conference, including commitments to mobilise $300 billion in climate finance. He called for stronger political will and multilateral cooperation, before handing over the COP presidency to Brazilian diplomat André Corrêa do Lago, who now leads the negotiations.

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