Business
Fitch rating downgrades Nigerian banks
Fitch Ratings has revised the Outlook on 4 Nigerian banks to Negative from Stable and affirmed the Long-Term Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) of 10 banks and financial institutions. The affected institutions are Zenith Bank Plc (Zenith), First Bank of Nigeria Ltd (FBN), United Bank for Africa Plc (UBA), Guaranty Trust Bank Plc (GTB), Access Bank Plc (Access), Diamond Bank Plc (Diamond), Fidelity Bank Plc (Fidelity), Union Bank Plc (Union) First City Monument Bank Limited (FCMB), Wema Bank Plc (Wema) and the bank holding company, FBN Holdings Plc (FBNH). The National Ratings of Stanbic IBTC Bank Plc (SIBTC), as well as its bank holding company, Stanbic IBTC Holdings Plc (SIBTCH) are also affirmed. The IDR Outlooks on Zenith and GTB (both at B+) have been revised to Negative following a recent similar action on Nigeria’s (B+) Outlook.
The other two banks, whose Outlooks have been revised to Negative, are Diamond and FBN/FBNH and the revision reflects their weaker financial profiles. We have downgraded the Long-and Short-Term National Ratings of FBN/FBNH and Diamond to ‘BB+(nga)’ and ‘B(nga)’ respectively to reflect heightened vulnerability of capital due to downside asset quality risks. A full list of rating actions is at the end of this rating action commentary. KEY RATING DRIVERS IDRS AND VIABILITY RATINGS The IDRs of all the banks (except SIBTC/SIBTCH) are driven by Fitch’s assessment of their standalone creditworthiness as captured in their Viability Ratings (VRs). The IDRs are all in the ‘B’ range, indicating highly speculative fundamental credit quality, and factor in the banks’ weakened credit profiles due to challenging macro-economic conditions and market volatility.
The operating environment continues to be affected by the oil price shock, slow GDP growth, continuing pressure on the naira, scarcity of hard currency in the FX interbank market and policy uncertainty. The VRs continue to be pressured by tight foreign currency liquidity, asset quality deterioration and limited capital buffers. The sector remains largely profitable, but operating profits in 2016 were inflated by foreign currency revaluation gains (due to the sharp depreciation of the naira in June 2016). Foreign currency-adjusted ‘normalised’ operating profit, although still healthy, is vulnerable to rising loan impairment charges (LICs). As a consequence, the banks VRs remain in the highly speculative ‘b’ range. Fitch is monitoring the banks’ ability to meet maturing external obligations given current difficult market conditions and limited supply of foreign currency from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). The new foreign-exchange regime has provided limited respite in accessing foreign currency in the interbank market. FX forward contracts provided by the CBN since June 2016 have helped the banks access foreign currency to reduce a large backlog of overdue trade finance obligations.
These were either extended or refinanced with international correspondent banks. Further depreciation of the naira against the US dollar would negatively impact banks’ regulatory capital ratios due to the translation effect of risk-weighted assets (RWAs). Some banks have limited buffers over regulatory minimums and further erosion of capital ratios beyond our expectations could be credit-negative. GTB and Zenith are the highest rated banks in Nigeria with Long-Term IDRs and VRs of ‘B+’ and ‘b+’ respectively. These ratings are driven by solid company profiles, management quality and strong through-the-cycle performance. The Negative Outlooks on their Long-Term IDRs reflect Fitch’s view that they cannot be rated above the sovereign due to the close correlation between the domestic operating environment and their credit profiles, including large holdings of government securities.
UBA’s VR reflects the bank’s strong franchise and company profile, which includes a broad pan-African footprint, as well as healthy financial metrics, including adequate capital and leverage ratios and resilient earnings. Access’s VR reflects the bank’s expanding franchise and market share as well as a strengthened business model and good track-record of execution. The rating also considers the bank’s healthy financial profile, including strong asset quality and capital ratios. FBNH’s and FBN’s VRs reflect the group’s traditionally strong franchise and company profile in Nigeria and regionally and a large retail network. The VRs also factor in the bank’s very high non-performing loans (NPL) ratio, large loan concentrations to the oil sector and weak capital position.
The Outlook on the Long-Term IDRs is revised to Negative to reflect continued pressure on capital as addressing its substantial asset quality problems will likely take time. Diamond’s VR reflects the bank’s high risk appetite and weaker earnings. The Outlook on the Long-Term IDR is revised to Negative to reflect a very tight foreign currency liquidity position and pressure on capital arising from weak asset quality. Fidelity’s VR reflects the institution’s strong second-tier franchise and sound capital ratios as well as sensitivity to high credit concentrations and weak earnings. FCMB’s VR reflects the bank’s limited company profile, exposure to higher-risk segments, tight foreign currency liquidity and weak earnings generation. Union’s VR reflects a high NPL ratio compared with peers, tight foreign currency liquidity and modest, albeit improving, revenue generation. It also reflects pressure on regulatory capital ratios, which the bank intends to address by raising core capital.
Wema’s VR reflects the bank’s small franchise, modest earnings and profitability and still low capital buffers. It also reflects a lower proportion of foreign currency assets and liabilities than peers’, meaning it is less affected by current liquidity pressures. SUPPORT RATING AND SUPPORT RATING FLOOR The Support Ratings of ‘5’ and Support Rating Floors of ‘No Floor’ for all the banks reflect sovereign support is possible but cannot be relied upon. Fitch believes that the Nigerian authorities retain a willingness to support the banks, but their ability to do so in foreign currency is weak due to Nigeria’s low foreign currency reserves and revenues. In addition, we have limited confidence that any available reserves will be used to support the banks rather than to execute other priority policy objectives. FBNH’s Support Rating of ‘5’ also reflects Fitch’s view that the authorities retain a low propensity to provide support to bank holding companies that do not have significant senior obligations. SENIOR AND SUBORDINATED DEBT The senior debt ratings of Zenith, Access (issued via the bank and Access Finance BV), GTB (issued via GTB Finance BV), Diamond and Fidelity are in line with their respective Long-Term IDRs.
The subordinated debt ratings of FBN (issued via FBN Finance BV) and Access are rated one notch below their respective VRs to reflect higher-than-average loss severity for subordinated relative to senior debt. No additional notches for non-performance risk have been applied. NATIONAL RATINGS National Ratings reflect Fitch’s opinion of each bank’s creditworthiness relative to the best credit in the country. We have downgraded the National Ratings of FBN/FBNH and Diamond to reflect their weaker financial metrics relative to peers. SIBTC’s and SIBTCH’s National Ratings are based on the probability of support from their parent, Standard Bank Group Limited (SBG; BBB-/Negative). SBG has a majority 53.2% stake in SIBTCH, which owns 100% of SIBTC. Fitch believes SBG’s support would extend equally to both the bank and the holding company. RATING SENSITIVITIES IDRS AND VRs The IDRs are sensitive to rating action on the banks’ respective VRs. This is mostly likely to be triggered by further asset quality and capital deterioration as well as continued pressure on foreign-currency funding and liquidity. FBN/FBNH’s and Diamond’s VRs face heightened sensitivity to a downgrade if asset quality, and therefore capitalisation, continues to deteriorate. For Diamond, additional weakening of its foreign currency liquidity position is also a rating sensitivity given its foreign currency refinancing risks. Upside is limited for all banks’ VRs due to the difficult operating environment. SUPPORT RATING AND SUPPORT RATING FLOOR Upside to the SRs and SRFs of all banks is unlikely in the near term due to the recent downgrades and revisions (in November 2016).
In the medium term, positive rating action could result from a significant improvement in the sovereign’s foreign-currency reserves and a significant improvement in foreign-currency liquidity in the system. It may also be triggered by clear evidence of timely extraordinary sovereign support for domestic banks, if required. NATIONAL RATINGS The banks’ National Ratings are sensitive to changes in their creditworthiness relative to other Nigerian entities. The National Ratings of SIBTC and SIBTCH are sensitive to a change in potential support (relating to both ability and propensity) from their ultimate parent, SBG. The National Ratings of SIBTCH and SIBTC could withstand a two-notch downgrade of SBG’s Long-Term IDR. SENIOR AND SUBORDINATED DEBT The senior debt ratings of Zenith, Access (issued via the bank and Access Finance BV), GTB (issued via GTB Finance BV), Diamond and Fidelity are sensitive to a change in their Long-Term IDRs.
The subordinated debt ratings of FBN and Access are sensitive to a change in their VRs. Contact: Primary Analysts Mahin Dissanayake (Union, Wema and Fidelity) Director +44 20 3530 1618 Fitch Ratings Limited 30 North Colonnade London, E14 5GN Andrew Parkinson
Business
15% petrol import tax requires strategic roll out – LCCI
Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) has stressed the need for a measured and strategic rollout of the 15 per cent petroleum import tax to ensure sustainable economic impact. The Director-General, LCCI, Dr Chinyere Almona, gave the advice in a statement on Monday in Lagos. Almona noted the recent decision by the Federal Government to impose a 15 per cent import tax on petrol and diesel, a move aimed at curbing import dependence and promoting local refining capacity.
She said while the policy direction aligned with the nation’s long-term objective of achieving energy self-sufficiency and naira strengthening, a strategic rollout was imperative. Almona said that Nigeria was already experiencing cost-of-living pressures, supply-chain, and inflation challenges and that the business community would be sensitive to further cost shocks. “The chamber recognises that discouraging fuel importation is a necessary step towards achieving domestic energy security, stimulating investment in local refineries, and deepening the downstream petroleum value chain.
“However, LCCI expresses concern about the current adequacy of local refining capacity to meet national demand. A premature restriction on imports, without sufficient domestic production, could lead to supply shortages, higher pump prices, and inflationary pressures across critical sectors,” she said. Almona called on the Federal Government to prioritise the full operationalisation and optimisation of local refineries, both public and private, including modular refineries and the recently revitalised major refining facilities. She said that a comprehensive framework for crude oil supply to these refineries in Naira rather than foreign exchange would significantly enhance cost efficiency, stabilise production, and strengthen the local value chain.
She said the chamber’s interest lied in a diversified downstream sector where multiple refineries, modular plants, and logistics firms thrive. She urged government to resolve outstanding labour union issues and create an enabling environment that fostered industrial harmony and private sector confidence.
According to her, ensuring clarity, consistency, and transparency in the implementation of the new tax regime will be crucial in preventing market distortions and sustaining investor trust. “While the reform is justified from an industrial policy standpoint, its success depends on practical implementation, robust safeguards, and parallel reforms to alleviate cost burdens on businesses and consumers. With local capacity not yet established, this tax will increase the cost of fuels as long as imports continue. Government needs to address the inhibiting factors against local production and refining before imposing this levy to discourage imports and support local production,” she said.
Almona recommended that the implementation of the tax policy be postponed. She advised that during the transition period government demonstrate its commitment through action by empowering local refiners through an efficient crude-for-Naira supply chain that ensured sufficient crude. “With this, refiners can boost their refining capacity with a stable supply of crude and adequately meet domestic demand at competitive rates. At this point, the imposition of an import tax will directly discourage importation and boost demand for the locally refined products,” she said.
Business
Update: Sanwo-Olu, others harp on stronger private sector role to drive AfCFTA success
Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu of Lagos State has urged the private sector to take a stronger, more coordinated role in driving the successful implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).
Sanwo-Olu, who made the call at the NEPAD Business Group Nigeria High-Level Business Forum, held on Thursday in Lagos, said that the agreement holds the key to transforming Africa into a globally competitive economic powerhouse. The theme of the forum is “Mobilising Africa’s Private Sector for AfCFTA Towards Africa’s Economic Development Amid Global Uncertainty”.
It brought together policymakers, business leaders, and development experts from across the continent. Sanwo-Olu was represented by the Lagos State Commissioner for Commerce, Cooperatives, Trade and Investment, Mrs Folashade Ambrose-Medebem. The governor said AfCFTA had the potential to lift millions of Africans out of poverty, but only if the continent’s business community seized the opportunity to scale production and integrate value chains across borders. “Governments can negotiate tariffs and treaties, but businesses must produce, export, invest, and believe in cross-border possibilities.
The private sector is the true engine of trade and industrialisation; without it, AfCFTA will remain a document and not a driver of development,” Sanwo-Olu said. He said that Lagos State had continued to create an enabling business environment through deliberate investments in infrastructure, logistics and technology, all designed to enhance productivity and trade efficiency. “From our vibrant tech ecosystem in Yaba to the Lekki Deep Sea Port and the expanding industrial corridors of the state, we are building a Lagos that supports trade, innovation, and investment,” he added. The governor stressed the need to empower Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs), which he described as “the lifeblood of Africa’s economy”.
He said access to finance, mentorship, and digital tools remained essential for their growth. “Through the Lagos State Employment Trust Fund (LSETF), we have supported thousands of entrepreneurs with training and access to funding. When SMEs thrive, our communities grow, jobs are created, and the promise of AfCFTA becomes real,” Sanwo-Olu noted. In his goodwill message, Dr Abdulrashid Yerima, President of the Nigerian Association of Small and Medium Enterprises (NASME), called on African governments to align policy frameworks with the realities of the private sector to ensure the success of AfCFTA.
Yerima said Africa’s shared prosperity depended on how effectively the continent could mobilise its entrepreneurs and innovators to take advantage of the 1.4 billion-strong continental market. “As private sector leaders, the employers of labour and creators of opportunity, we must move from aspiration to achievement, from potential to performance. AfCFTA is not just an agreement; it is Africa’s blueprint for collective economic independence,” he said. He emphasised the importance of strengthening cooperation among business coalitions, cooperatives, and industrial clusters to ensure that micro and small enterprises benefit from cross-border trade opportunities. “No SME can scale alone in a continental market.
We must build strong business networks that allow small enterprises to grow into regional champions,” he stressed. Yerima further encouraged African nations to adopt global best practices and digital frameworks, such as the OECD Digital for SMEs (D4SME) initiative, to improve access to knowledge, technology, and markets. Also speaking at the event, Mr Samuel Dossou-Aworet, President of the African Business Roundtable (ABR), urged African leaders to fully harness AfCFTA’s opportunities to build inclusive and sustainable economies. Dossou-Aworet noted that while Africa was currently the world’s second-fastest-growing region after Asia, sustained growth would require greater industrialisation and investment in human capital.
“The entry into force of the AfCFTA has expanded Africa’s investment frontiers. Where once our markets were fragmented, we now have a unified platform for trade and production. But growth must be inclusive, not just in numbers, but in impact on people’s lives,” he noted. Citing data from the African Development Bank (AfDB), Dossou-Aworet observed that 12 of the world’s 20 fastest-growing economies in 2025 are African, including Rwanda, Côte d’Ivoire, and Senegal. However, he cautioned that Africa’s GDP growth of around four per cent remained below the seven per cent threshold needed to significantly reduce poverty. “We must ensure that growth translates into better jobs, infrastructure, and access to opportunities for women and youth,” he stressed. He also called for innovative financing models to bridge Africa’s infrastructure gap and improve competitiveness in the global market.
“Africa needs market access and trade facilitation mechanisms to enable its products to reach global markets. Access to affordable capital is key, and our financial systems must evolve to support trade,” he added. Dossou-Aworet reaffirmed the African Business Roundtable’s commitment to supporting enterprise development and promoting Africa as a prime destination for investment. “This is Africa’s moment. If we work together, government, business, and citizens, we will build an Africa that competes confidently in the global economy and delivers prosperity for its people.”
The forum, convened by the NEPAD Business Group Nigeria, brought together regional and international partners to strengthen collaboration between public and private sectors in advancing AfCFTA’s goals. Chairman of the group, Chief J.K. Randle, commended the participation of leading business executives and policymakers, saying it reflected Africa’s readiness to take ownership of its economic destiny. Randle said, “We can no longer rely on external forces to drive our growth. The private sector must rise as the torchbearer of Africa’s transformation under AfCFTA.” He added that the forum would continue to serve as a platform for dialogue, knowledge exchange, and action planning to position African enterprises at the centre of global trade.
Business
First ever China–Europe Cargo transit completed via the Arctic route
The first-ever container transit from China to Europe via the Northern Sea Route (NSR) arrived at the British port of Felixstowe on October 13, 2025. The voyage marked a breakthrough in developing the NSR as a sustainable and high-tech transport corridor connecting Asia and Europe. The development of this Arctic route reflects the steady expansion of global trade flows — an evolution that reaches every continent, including Africa, where maritime industries and energy corridors continue to expand.
The ship carrying nearly 25,000 tonnes of cargo departed from Ningbo on September 23 and entered the NSR on October 1. Navigation and information support was provided by Glavsevmorput, a subsidiary of Rosatom State Atomic Energy Corporation. The Arctic leg of the voyage took 20 days, cutting transit time almost by half compared with traditional southern routes. This new pathway complements existing ones, creating broader opportunities for efficient and sustainable logistics worldwide.
The Northern Sea Route is developing rapidly, becoming a viable and efficient global logistics route. This is facilitated by various factors, including the development of advanced technologies, the construction of new-generation nuclear icebreakers, and growing interest from international shippers. Working in the Arctic is challenging but we are transforming these challenges into results. Along with the main priority of ensuring the safety of navigation on the Northern Sea Route, managing the speed and time of passage along the route is becoming an important task for us today,” noted Rosatom State Corporation Special Representative for Arctic Development Vladimir Panov.
The Northern Sea Route, spanning about 5,600 km, links the western part of Eurasia with the Asia-Pacific region. In 2024, cargo turnover reached 37.9 million tonnes, surpassing the previous year’s record by more than 1.6 million. Container traffic between Russia and China doubled compared to 2023, and by mid-2025, 17 container voyages had already been completed, moving 280,000 tonnes — a 59% increase year-on-year.
The expansion of this Arctic transport route is becoming part of a broader global effort to strengthen connectivity and diversify supply chains. For Africa and the wider Global South these developments demonstrate how innovation in logistics can stimulate new opportunities for trade, technology exchange, and sustainable growth. As new corridors emerge, the world’s regions are becoming more closely linked — not in competition, but in collaboration — shaping a more resilient and interconnected global economy.
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