Economy
Global banking crisis: What just happened?
Last Friday, the biggest failure of a US bank since the global financial crisis was playing out in real time as a major lender to the tech industry succumbed to a classic bank run. Silicon Valley Bank’s customers were frantically pulling their money from the California-based lender before US regulators intervened to take control. But the collapse panicked markets, piling pain on weaker financial institutions already struggling with the unintended consequences of soaring interest rates and self-inflicted wounds. A week on, a second US regional bank — Signature Bank — has been shut down, a third — First Republic Bank — has been propped up, and the first major threat since 2008 to a bank of global financial significance — Credit Suisse — has been averted, at least for now. But the relative calm has been restored only thanks to the provision of huge sums of emergency cash from lenders of last resort — central banks — and some of the industry’s strongest players.
Markets remain on edge: Benchmark indexes of shares in US and European banks have lost 20% and 13% respectively since the close of trading last Wednesday. Wall Street opened lower Friday, and First Republic’s shares tumbled by about 16%. Friday, March 10 — The US government’s Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) took control of SVB. It was the biggest banking collapse in America since Washington Mutual in 2008. The wheels started to come off 48 hours earlier when the bank took a multibillion-dollar loss cashing out US government bonds to raise money to pay depositors. It tried — unsuccessfully — to sell shares to shore up its finances. That triggered the panic that led to its downfall. Sunday, March 12 — The FDIC shut down Signature Bank after a run on its deposits by customers who were spooked by the implosion of SVB. Both banks had an unusually high ratio of uninsured deposits to fund their businesses. Wednesday, March 15 — After watching shares in Credit Suisse collapse by as much as 30%, Swiss authorities announced a backstop for the country’s second-biggest bank.
It calmed the immediate market panic but the global player is not out of the woods yet. Investors and customers are worried that it doesn’t have a credible plan to reverse a long-term decline in its business. Thursday, March 16 — First Republic Bank was teetering on the brink as customers withdrew their deposits. In a meeting in Washington, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Jamie Dimon, the CEO of America’s biggest bank, drew up plans for a private sector rescue. The result was an agreement with a group of American lenders to deposit tens of billions of dollars of cash into First Republic to staunch the bleeding.
Nearly $200 billion so far in direct central bank support. In guaranteeing all deposits at Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, the US Federal Reserve is on the hook for $140 billion. Then there’s the $54 billion the Swiss National Bank offered Credit Suisse in the form of an emergency loan. The Fed has also agreed record amounts of loans to other banks this week. Banks borrowed nearly $153 billion from the Fed in recent days, smashing the previous record of $112 billion set during the crisis of 2008. Banks also drew on nearly $12 billion of loans from the Fed’s new emergency lending program established at the start of the week with the aim of preventing more banks collapsing. The $318 billion the Fed has loaned in total to the financial system is about half what was extended during the global financial crisis. “But it is still a big number,” said JPMorgan’s Michael Feroli in a note to investors Thursday. “The glass half-empty view is that banks need a lot of money. The glass half-full take is that the system is working as intended.” The banking industry has also coughed up billions. JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Citigroup are among a group of 11 lenders providing the $30 billion cash infusion aimed at shoring up confidence in First Republic Bank.
HSBC has reportedly committed more than $2 billion to SVB’s UK business, which it bought on Sunday for £1. If you have less than $250,000 in an account at a US bank insured by the FDIC, then you almost certainly have nothing to worry about. Joint accounts are insured up to $500,000. European countries operate similar programs. In Switzerland, up to 100,000 Swiss francs ($108,000) is insured per depositor. Customers of failed banks in the European Union are promised €100,000 ($105,431) of their deposits back. Joint account holders can receive a combined €200,000 ($210,956) in compensation. In the United Kingdom, depositors can have up to £85,000 ($102,484) returned if their bank goes under, doubling to £170,000 ($204,967) for joint accounts. The short answer is yes. Stressed banks will pay much greater attention to the creditworthiness of borrowers, whether they’re businesses looking for loans or home buyers trying to find mortgages.
“If banks are under stress, they might be reluctant to lend,” US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Thursday in testimony to the Senate Finance Committee. “We could see credit become more expensive and less available.” Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank, told reporters Thursday that “persistently elevated market tensions” could further constrict credit conditions that were already tightening in response to rising interest rates. Here’s what Yellen also said to the Senate committee: “That could turn this into a source of significant downside economic risk.” Goldman Sachs said Wednesday that growing stress in the banking sector has boosted the odds of a US recession within the next 12 months. The bank now believes that the American economy has a 35% chance of entering a recession within a year, up from 25% before the banking sector meltdown started. The world’s second-biggest economy, China, is also sputtering despite a burst of activity following the rapid ending of draconian Covid lockdown measures late last year. In a surprise move Friday, the Chinese central Bank cut the amount of money the country’s lenders are required to hold in reserve in a bid to keep cash flowing through the economy. CNN
The Arab Africa Trade Bridges (AATB) Program and the Federal Republic of Nigeria formalized a partnership with the signing of the AATB Membership Agreement, officially welcoming Nigeria as the Program’s newest member country. The signing ceremony took place in Abuja on the sidelines of the 5th AATB Board of Governors Meeting, hosted by the Federal Government of Nigeria.
The Membership Agreement was signed by Eng. Adeeb Y. Al Aama, the CEO of the International Islamic Trade Finance Corporation (ITFC) and AATB Program Secretary General, and H.E. Mr. Wale Edun, Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Federal Republic of Nigeria. The Agreement will provide a strategic and operational framework to support Nigeria’s efforts in trade competitiveness, promote export diversification, strengthen priority value chains, and advance capacity-building efforts in line with national development priorities. Areas of collaboration will include trade promotion, agribusiness modernization, SME development, businessmen missions, trade facilitation, logistics efficiency, and digital trade readiness.
The Honourable Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr. Wale Edun, called for deeper trade collaboration between African and Arab nations, stressing the importance of value-added Agribusiness and industrial partnerships for regional growth. Speaking in Abuja at the Agribusiness Matchmaking Forum ahead of the AATB Board of Governors Meeting, the Minister said the shifting global economy makes it essential for African and Arab nations to rely more on regional cooperation, investment and shared markets.
He highlighted projections showing Arab-Africa trade could grow by more than US$37 billion in the next three years and urged partners to prioritize value addition rather than raw commodity exports. He noted that Nigeria’s growing industrial base and upcoming National Single Window reforms will support efficiency, investment and private-sector expansion.
“This is a moment to turn opportunity into action”, he said. “By working together, we can build stronger value chains, create jobs and support prosperity across our regions”, Edun emphasized. “As African and Arab nations embark on this journey of deeper trade collaboration, the potential for growth and development is vast. With a shared vision and commitment to value-added partnerships, we can unlock new opportunities, drive economic growth, and create a brighter future for our people.”
Speaking during the event, Eng. Adeeb Y. Al Aama, Chief Executive Officer of ITFC and Secretary General of the AATB Program, stated: “We are pleased to welcome Nigeria to be part of the AATB Program. Nigeria stands as one of Africa’s most dynamic and resilient economies in Africa, with a rapidly expanding private sector and strong potential across agribusiness, energy, manufacturing, and digital industries. Through this Membership Agreement, we look forward to collaborating closely with Nigerian institutions to strengthen value chains, expand regional market access, enhance trade finance and investment opportunities, and support the country’s development priorities.”
The signing of this Agreement underscores AATB’s continued engagement with African countries and its evolving portfolio of programs supporting trade and investment. In recent years, AATB has worked on initiatives across agribusiness, textiles, logistics, digital trade, export readiness under the AfCFTA framework, and other regional initiatives such as the Common African Agro-Parks (CAAPs) Programme.
With Nigeria’s accession, the AATB Program extends it’s presence in the region and adds a key partner working toward advancing trade-led development and fostering inclusive economic growth.
Federal Executive Council (FEC) has approved the 2026–2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF), a key fiscal document that outlines Nigeria’s revenue expectations, macroeconomic assumptions, and spending priorities for the next three years. The approval followed Wednesday’s FEC meeting presided over by President Bola Tinubu at the State House, Abuja. The Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Senator Atiku Bagudu made this known after the meeting.
The Minister said the Federal Government is projecting a total revenue inflow of N34.33 trillion in 2026, including N4.98 trillion expected from government-owned enterprises. Bagudu said that the projected revenue is N6.55 trillion lower than earlier estimates, adding that federal allocations are expected to drop by about N9.4 trillion, representing a 16% decline compared to the 2025 budget.
He said that statutory transfers are expected to amount to about N3 trillion within the same fiscal year. On macroeconomic assumptions, FEC adopted an oil production benchmark of 2.6 million barrels per day (mbpd) for 2026, although a more conservative 1.8 mbpd will be used for budgeting purposes. An oil price benchmark of $64 per barrel and an exchange rate of N1,512 per dollar were also approved.
Bagudu said the exchange rate assumption reflects projections tied to economic and political developments ahead of the 2027 general elections. He said the exchange rate assumption took into account the fiscal outlook ahead of the 2027 general elections.
The minister said that all the parameters were based on macroeconomic analysis by the Budget Office and other relevant agencies. Bagudu said FEC also reviewed comments from cabinet members before approving the Medium-Term Fiscal Expenditure Ceiling (MFTEC), which sets expenditure limits. Earlier, the Senate approved the external borrowing plan of $21.5 billion presented by President Tinubu for consideration The loans, according to the Senate, were part of the MTEF and Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP) for the 2025 budget.
The spot rate on Nigerian Treasury bills has been increased by 146 basis points by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) following tight subscription levels at the main auction on Wednesday. The spot rate on Treasury bills with one-year maturity has now surpassed Nigeria’s 16.05% inflation by 145 basis points following a recent decision to keep the policy rate at 27%.
The Apex Bank came to the primary market with N700 billion Treasury bills offer size across standard tenors, including 91-day, 182-day and 364 day maturities. Details from the auction results showed that demand settled slightly above the total offers as investors began to seek higher returns on naira assets despite disinflation.
Total subscription came in at about N775 billion versus N700 billion offers floated at the main auction. The results showed rising appetite for duration as investors parked about 90% of their bids on Nigerian Treasury bills with 364 days maturity. The CBN opened N100 billion worth of 91 days bills for subscription, but the offer received underwhelming bids totalling N44.17 billion.
The CBN allotted N42.80 billion for the short-term instrument at the spot rate of 15.30%, the same as the previous auction. Total demand for 182 days Nigerian Treasury bills settled at N33.38 billion as against N150 billion that the authority pushed out for subscription. The CBN raised N30.36 billion from 182 days bills allotted to investors at the spot rate of 15.50%, the same as the previous auction.
Investors staked N697.29 billion on N450 billion in 364-day Treasury bills that was offered for subscription. The CBN raised N636.46 billion from the longest tenor at the spot rate of 17.50%, up from 16.04% at the previous auction.
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