Economy
Global growth expected to stabilise at 3.1%—World Bank
The World Bank Group has said that global growth is projected to stabilise at 3.1 per cent in 2018 the same pace as last year supported by firming investment in advanced economies, a continued recovery in commodity-exporting emerging market and developing economies, and still robust growth in commodity-importing ones. In a new report it that “However, only in a minority of countries will activity accelerate further this year, and global growth is projected to ease gradually over the next two years, to 2.9 per cent in 2020. Despite the projected moderation, global growth will continue to exceed potential, suggesting that capacity constraints will become more binding and global inflation will rise.
The report said that “Trade has been robust, but is expected to moderate, as the recovery in capital spending wanes. A faster-than-expected rise in global interest rates, combined with a renewed strength of the U.S. dollar, have contributed to tighter external financing conditions and moderating capital inflows in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). In this context, investors have become increasingly focused on country-specific exposures to rising borrowing costs and currency pressures. Commodity prices particularly oil are also higher than previously expected, mainly reflecting supply-side considerations”.
It said that “Growth in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies EMDEs, is projected to gain further strength, reaching 4.5 per cent in 2018 before stabilising at 4.7 per cent in 2019-20 as the recovery in commodity exporters matures. Growth in commodity exporters is expected to increase to 2.5 per cent in 2018 and to average 3.0 per cent in 2019 and 2020, as investment growth plateaus and output gaps close”. The report further said “Growth in commodity importers is projected to remain broadly stable in 2018-20, averaging 5.8 per cent, as a structural slowdown in China is offset by a moderate pickup in the rest of the group.
“Per capita income in EMDEs: uneven progress. Growth prospects for EMDEs remain favourable over the forecast horizon but may not be sufficient to ensure rapid poverty alleviation, particularly in Sub- Saharan Africa. In that region, per capita income growth is projected to reach 1 per cent by 2020, significantly lower than the EMDE average of 3.5 percent. In contrast, per capita income growth is expected to reach 6 percent in South Asia, which is the region with the second largest number of extreme poor. At the projected pace, growth will be insufficient to restart the catch-up of income per capita with advanced economies in about one-third of EMDEs.
It said that “Risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside, with some becoming more acute. In particular, an accelerated tightening of global financing conditions and disorderly exchange rate developments could have severe consequences in many EMDEs facing record-high debt levels, mounting refinancing needs, and deteriorating credit quality (Figure 1.D). Escalation of trade restrictions among major economies could derail global trade, with particularly adverse consequences for EMDEs (Figure 1.E). Electoral outcomes in a number of countries, including in Europe, could heighten policy uncertainty, while an intensification of geopolitical tensions could also hamper growth prospects. Depleted policy buffers make many countries unprepared to the possibility of a faster-than-expected slowdown in global growth.
“Policymakers need to meet head-on the prospects of rising global interest rates and possible financial market volatility. Deteriorating debt dynamics underline the importance of fostering revenue mobilisation and restoring fiscal buffers. EMDEs also need to boost longer-term growth prospects by intensifying economic diversification among commodity exporters, and, more broadly, by strengthening workforce skills, adapting to technological change, and promoting trade openness. Higher tertiary education enrollment can help move EMDEs closer to technological frontiers, but improving basic numeracy, literacy, and skills from current levels is a key priority for many low- and middle-income countries”
The Arab Africa Trade Bridges (AATB) Program and the Federal Republic of Nigeria formalized a partnership with the signing of the AATB Membership Agreement, officially welcoming Nigeria as the Program’s newest member country. The signing ceremony took place in Abuja on the sidelines of the 5th AATB Board of Governors Meeting, hosted by the Federal Government of Nigeria.
The Membership Agreement was signed by Eng. Adeeb Y. Al Aama, the CEO of the International Islamic Trade Finance Corporation (ITFC) and AATB Program Secretary General, and H.E. Mr. Wale Edun, Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Federal Republic of Nigeria. The Agreement will provide a strategic and operational framework to support Nigeria’s efforts in trade competitiveness, promote export diversification, strengthen priority value chains, and advance capacity-building efforts in line with national development priorities. Areas of collaboration will include trade promotion, agribusiness modernization, SME development, businessmen missions, trade facilitation, logistics efficiency, and digital trade readiness.
The Honourable Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr. Wale Edun, called for deeper trade collaboration between African and Arab nations, stressing the importance of value-added Agribusiness and industrial partnerships for regional growth. Speaking in Abuja at the Agribusiness Matchmaking Forum ahead of the AATB Board of Governors Meeting, the Minister said the shifting global economy makes it essential for African and Arab nations to rely more on regional cooperation, investment and shared markets.
He highlighted projections showing Arab-Africa trade could grow by more than US$37 billion in the next three years and urged partners to prioritize value addition rather than raw commodity exports. He noted that Nigeria’s growing industrial base and upcoming National Single Window reforms will support efficiency, investment and private-sector expansion.
“This is a moment to turn opportunity into action”, he said. “By working together, we can build stronger value chains, create jobs and support prosperity across our regions”, Edun emphasized. “As African and Arab nations embark on this journey of deeper trade collaboration, the potential for growth and development is vast. With a shared vision and commitment to value-added partnerships, we can unlock new opportunities, drive economic growth, and create a brighter future for our people.”
Speaking during the event, Eng. Adeeb Y. Al Aama, Chief Executive Officer of ITFC and Secretary General of the AATB Program, stated: “We are pleased to welcome Nigeria to be part of the AATB Program. Nigeria stands as one of Africa’s most dynamic and resilient economies in Africa, with a rapidly expanding private sector and strong potential across agribusiness, energy, manufacturing, and digital industries. Through this Membership Agreement, we look forward to collaborating closely with Nigerian institutions to strengthen value chains, expand regional market access, enhance trade finance and investment opportunities, and support the country’s development priorities.”
The signing of this Agreement underscores AATB’s continued engagement with African countries and its evolving portfolio of programs supporting trade and investment. In recent years, AATB has worked on initiatives across agribusiness, textiles, logistics, digital trade, export readiness under the AfCFTA framework, and other regional initiatives such as the Common African Agro-Parks (CAAPs) Programme.
With Nigeria’s accession, the AATB Program extends it’s presence in the region and adds a key partner working toward advancing trade-led development and fostering inclusive economic growth.
Federal Executive Council (FEC) has approved the 2026–2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF), a key fiscal document that outlines Nigeria’s revenue expectations, macroeconomic assumptions, and spending priorities for the next three years. The approval followed Wednesday’s FEC meeting presided over by President Bola Tinubu at the State House, Abuja. The Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Senator Atiku Bagudu made this known after the meeting.
The Minister said the Federal Government is projecting a total revenue inflow of N34.33 trillion in 2026, including N4.98 trillion expected from government-owned enterprises. Bagudu said that the projected revenue is N6.55 trillion lower than earlier estimates, adding that federal allocations are expected to drop by about N9.4 trillion, representing a 16% decline compared to the 2025 budget.
He said that statutory transfers are expected to amount to about N3 trillion within the same fiscal year. On macroeconomic assumptions, FEC adopted an oil production benchmark of 2.6 million barrels per day (mbpd) for 2026, although a more conservative 1.8 mbpd will be used for budgeting purposes. An oil price benchmark of $64 per barrel and an exchange rate of N1,512 per dollar were also approved.
Bagudu said the exchange rate assumption reflects projections tied to economic and political developments ahead of the 2027 general elections. He said the exchange rate assumption took into account the fiscal outlook ahead of the 2027 general elections.
The minister said that all the parameters were based on macroeconomic analysis by the Budget Office and other relevant agencies. Bagudu said FEC also reviewed comments from cabinet members before approving the Medium-Term Fiscal Expenditure Ceiling (MFTEC), which sets expenditure limits. Earlier, the Senate approved the external borrowing plan of $21.5 billion presented by President Tinubu for consideration The loans, according to the Senate, were part of the MTEF and Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP) for the 2025 budget.
The spot rate on Nigerian Treasury bills has been increased by 146 basis points by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) following tight subscription levels at the main auction on Wednesday. The spot rate on Treasury bills with one-year maturity has now surpassed Nigeria’s 16.05% inflation by 145 basis points following a recent decision to keep the policy rate at 27%.
The Apex Bank came to the primary market with N700 billion Treasury bills offer size across standard tenors, including 91-day, 182-day and 364 day maturities. Details from the auction results showed that demand settled slightly above the total offers as investors began to seek higher returns on naira assets despite disinflation.
Total subscription came in at about N775 billion versus N700 billion offers floated at the main auction. The results showed rising appetite for duration as investors parked about 90% of their bids on Nigerian Treasury bills with 364 days maturity. The CBN opened N100 billion worth of 91 days bills for subscription, but the offer received underwhelming bids totalling N44.17 billion.
The CBN allotted N42.80 billion for the short-term instrument at the spot rate of 15.30%, the same as the previous auction. Total demand for 182 days Nigerian Treasury bills settled at N33.38 billion as against N150 billion that the authority pushed out for subscription. The CBN raised N30.36 billion from 182 days bills allotted to investors at the spot rate of 15.50%, the same as the previous auction.
Investors staked N697.29 billion on N450 billion in 364-day Treasury bills that was offered for subscription. The CBN raised N636.46 billion from the longest tenor at the spot rate of 17.50%, up from 16.04% at the previous auction.
-
News3 days agoNigeria to officially tag Kidnapping as Act of Terrorism as bill passes 2nd reading in Senate
-
News3 days agoNigeria champions African-Arab trade to boost agribusiness, industrial growth
-
News3 days agoFG’s plan to tax digital currencies may push traders to into underground financing—stakeholders
-
Finance1 week agoAfreximbank successfully closed its second Samurai Bond transactions, raising JPY 81.8bn or $527m
-
Economy3 days agoMAN cries out some operators at FTZs abusing system to detriment of local manufacturers
-
News1 week agoFG launches fresh offensive against Trans-border crimes, irregular migration, ECOWAS biometric identity Card
-
News3 days agoEU to support Nigeria’s war against insecurity
-
Uncategorized3 days agoDeveloping Countries’ Debt Outflows Hit 50-Year High During 2022-2024—WBG