IEA upgrades oil demand forecast for 2025

The International Energy Agency (IEA) on Thursday raised its global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 by 20,000 barrels per day (bpd) compared to last month’s assessment. Global oil demand is now estimated to increase by 741,000 bpd to 103.9 million bpd in 2025, according to the IEA’s latest oil market report. The revision comes “as an upwardly revised GDP growth forecast and lower oil prices were counterbalanced by weaker-than-expected non-OECD delivery data, especially in India,” the agency said. Growth in 2026 is expected to continue at a similar pace, rising by 760,000 bpd, according to the report. Emerging economies will remain the dominant drivers of global oil demand growth, with increases of 860,000 bpd in 2025 and 1 million bpd in 2026, contrasting with the OECD’s accelerating declines of 120,000 and 240,000 bpd, respectively, the report added.
“In a break from trends of the past decade, when growth was heavily dependent on China, non-OECD gains this year and next will be highly diversified geographically, with China, India, Africa, Latin America and the Middle East each accounting for about 15% of the increase,” it added. Global oil supply increased by about 160,000 bpd in April to 104.46 million bpd, according to the Paris-based agency’s report. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (OPEC) crude oil production declined to 27.42 million bpd last month, down by 120,000 bpd from the previous month, it added. The group’s total oil production reached approximately 33.05 million bpd over the same period. Meanwhile, daily oil production in non-OPEC countries increased by 280,000 bpd in February, reaching 71.41 million bpd. Non-OPEC+ countries accounted for three-quarters of the growth in global oil supply in April, according to the report. While the US and Norway led the non-OPEC+ increase, higher OPEC+ output from Russia and Iran was partially offset by lower supplies from Venezuela, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait Reuters