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IMF raises Nigeria’s 2025 growth forecast to 4.2% in 2026, renewed focus on tracing Illicit Financial Flows to plug fiscal leakages 

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has upgraded Nigeria’s economic growth projection, forecasting a 3.9% expansion in 2025 and 4.2% in 2026. Meanwhile the renewed focus of the IMF on tracing Illicit Financial Flows could plug Nigeria’s fiscal leakages, the Managing Director of the global multilateral institution, Ms. Kristalina Georgieva, has said.  She spoke while engaging with Civil Society Organisations (CSOs) at the ongoing 2025 Annual Meetings of the IMF and World Bank in Washington DC. She said “we believe that for countries like Nigeria, the IMF’s renewed focus on tracing Illicit Financial Flows could provide a blueprint for plugging the fiscal leakages that have long undermined revenue generation and sustainable growth”. The MD warned of the growing threat of illicit financial flows (IFFs) phenomenon which she said has become a major factor undermining the economic and financial stability of nations across the globe.
According to the Fund, illicit financial flows — which include stolen public funds, proceeds from criminal activities, and untraceable digital transactions — continue to erode governance systems, drain public resources, and cripple developmental efforts, especially in developing economies. In a recent policy briefing, IMF officials noted that IFFs now come in “multiple dimensions.” These range from outright embezzlement of taxpayers’ money to private funds channeled into illegal ventures that threaten national welfare. The digital economy, they added, has further complicated the challenge with cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin providing an avenue for anonymous financial transactions. She said, “You may have money just plainly stolen — money that belongs to the taxpayers. You may have private money directed for criminal activities undermining the welfare of citizens,” the Fund noted. “Now with digital money, criminal activities can be funded without being traced. This is a serious problem, and we have to take it as such.” She said “Following the money” has now become a compulsory part of the IMF’s annual Article IV consultations — the standard economic health check for member countries. This ensures that the Fund routinely assesses each nation’s exposure to illicit flows and financial integrity risks.
The MD added that the IMF is embedding lessons from past experiences into its financial sector evaluation tools to better trace illicit transactions and vulnerabilities. In addition, she said for countries seeking IMF financial assistance, any program design will now include specific measures to address the problem of illicit flows, particularly where such challenges are deemed systemic. Ms. Georgieva also said the Fund was supporting member countries through technical assistance and training to enable local authorities to detect, trace, and respond effectively to suspicious financial activities. “We need to train country authorities so they can trace illicit financial flows, be more alert, and act quickly” she stated, adding “Digital tools help in tracking money, but they also create new avenues for evading oversight.”
The revised growth figures were announced on Tuesday during the launch of the World Economic Outlook (WEO) 2025 at the ongoing World Bank and IMF Annual Meetings in Washington, D.C. In its July 2025 update, the IMF had projected Nigeria’s economic growth at 3.4 per cent, but the latest report reflects a 0.5 percentage point increase, signaling renewed confidence in the country’s reform-driven economic recovery. Also, the Fund projected that the Nigerian economy would grow by 4.2% in 2026, an improvement from 3.2% it predicted in July. The Fund’s updated projection places Nigeria ahead of South Africa but slightly below the broader Sub-Saharan African regional average.
According to the report, South Africa’s growth forecast was raised marginally from 1.0 to 1.1 percent for 2025 but revised downward from 1.3 to 1.2 percent for 2026. Meanwhile, Sub-Saharan Africa’s growth outlook improved from 4.0 to 4.1 percent for 2025 and from 4.3 to 4.4 percent for 2026. Higher oil output, investor confidence, and fiscal reforms key drivers of improved outlook. In the report, IMF attributed Nigeria’s upgraded growth forecast to a combination of supportive domestic factors, including increased oil production, rising investor confidence, and a more favorable fiscal stance projected for 2026. The Fund said, “Whereas growth in Nigeria is revised upward on account of supportive domestic factors, including higher oil production, improved investor confidence, a supportive fiscal stance in 2026, and given its limited exposure to higher US tariffs, many other economies see significant downward revisions because of the changing international trade and official aid landscape,” IMF stated. 
On the global front, the IMF projects that growth will moderate to 3.2 percent in 2025 and further to 3.1 percent in 2026. This marks a slight improvement from the July 2025 WEO update but remains 0.2 percentage points below earlier forecasts made prior to recent global policy shifts.
“This is an improvement relative to the July WEO Update—but cumulatively 0.2 percentage point below forecasts made before the policy shifts in the October 2024 WEO, with the slowdown reflecting headwinds from uncertainty and protectionism, even though the tariff shock is smaller than originally announced,” IMF said. The report further notes that advanced economies are expected to expand by around 1.5 percent over 2025–2026, with the United States slowing to 2.0 percent. According to IMF, emerging markets and developing economies are projected to grow just above 4.0 percent during the same period and global inflation is forecast to decline to 4.2 per cent in 2025 and 3.7 per cent in 2026, while world trade volume is expected to grow at an average rate of 2.9 per cent in 2025–2026—slower than the 3.5 per cent recorded in 2024, as trade fragmentation continues to limit gains.

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Economy

Nigeria champions African-Arab trade to boost agribusiness, industrial growth

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December 5, 2025

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The Arab Africa Trade Bridges (AATB) Program and the Federal Republic of Nigeria formalized a partnership with the signing of the AATB Membership Agreement, officially welcoming Nigeria as the Program’s newest member country. The signing ceremony took place in Abuja on the sidelines of the 5th AATB Board of Governors Meeting, hosted by the Federal Government of Nigeria.

The Membership Agreement was signed by Eng. Adeeb Y. Al Aama, the CEO of the International Islamic Trade Finance Corporation (ITFC) and AATB Program Secretary General, and H.E. Mr. Wale Edun, Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Federal Republic of Nigeria. The Agreement will provide a strategic and operational framework to support Nigeria’s efforts in trade competitiveness, promote export diversification, strengthen priority value chains, and advance capacity-building efforts in line with national development priorities. Areas of collaboration will include trade promotion, agribusiness modernization, SME development, businessmen missions, trade facilitation, logistics efficiency, and digital trade readiness.

The Honourable Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr. Wale Edun, called for deeper trade collaboration between African and Arab nations, stressing the importance of value-added Agribusiness and industrial partnerships for regional growth. Speaking in Abuja at the Agribusiness Matchmaking Forum ahead of the AATB Board of Governors Meeting, the Minister said the shifting global economy makes it essential for African and Arab nations to rely more on regional cooperation, investment and shared markets.

He highlighted projections showing Arab-Africa trade could grow by more than US$37 billion in the next three years and urged partners to prioritize value addition rather than raw commodity exports. He noted that Nigeria’s growing industrial base and upcoming National Single Window reforms will support efficiency, investment and private-sector expansion.

“This is a moment to turn opportunity into action”, he said. “By working together, we can build stronger value chains, create jobs and support prosperity across our regions”, Edun emphasized. “As African and Arab nations embark on this journey of deeper trade collaboration, the potential for growth and development is vast. With a shared vision and commitment to value-added partnerships, we can unlock new opportunities, drive economic growth, and create a brighter future for our people.”

Speaking during the event, Eng. Adeeb Y. Al Aama, Chief Executive Officer of ITFC and Secretary General of the AATB Program, stated: “We are pleased to welcome Nigeria to be part of the AATB Program. Nigeria stands as one of Africa’s most dynamic and resilient economies in Africa, with a rapidly expanding private sector and strong potential across agribusiness, energy, manufacturing, and digital industries. Through this Membership Agreement, we look forward to collaborating closely with Nigerian institutions to strengthen value chains, expand regional market access, enhance trade finance and investment opportunities, and support the country’s development priorities.”

The signing of this Agreement underscores AATB’s continued engagement with African countries and its evolving portfolio of programs supporting trade and investment. In recent years, AATB has worked on initiatives across agribusiness, textiles, logistics, digital trade, export readiness under the AfCFTA framework, and other regional initiatives such as the Common African Agro-Parks (CAAPs) Programme.

With Nigeria’s accession, the AATB Program extends it’s presence in the region and adds a key partner working toward advancing trade-led development and fostering inclusive economic growth.

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FEC approves 2026–2028 MTEF, projects N34.33trn revenue 

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December 4, 2025

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Federal Executive Council (FEC) has approved the 2026–2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF), a key fiscal document that outlines Nigeria’s revenue expectations, macroeconomic assumptions, and spending priorities for the next three years. The approval followed Wednesday’s FEC meeting presided over by President Bola Tinubu at the State House, Abuja. The Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Senator Atiku Bagudu made this known after the meeting.

The Minister said the Federal Government is projecting a total revenue inflow of N34.33 trillion in 2026, including N4.98 trillion expected from government-owned enterprises. Bagudu said that the projected revenue is N6.55 trillion lower than earlier estimates, adding that federal allocations are expected to drop by about N9.4 trillion, representing a 16% decline compared to the 2025 budget.

He said that statutory transfers are expected to amount to about N3 trillion within the same fiscal year. On macroeconomic assumptions, FEC adopted an oil production benchmark of 2.6 million barrels per day (mbpd) for 2026, although a more conservative 1.8 mbpd will be used for budgeting purposes. An oil price benchmark of $64 per barrel and an exchange rate of N1,512 per dollar were also approved.

Bagudu said the exchange rate assumption reflects projections tied to economic and political developments ahead of the 2027 general elections. He said the exchange rate assumption took into account the fiscal outlook ahead of the 2027 general elections.

The minister said that all the parameters were based on macroeconomic analysis by the Budget Office and other relevant agencies. Bagudu said FEC also reviewed comments from cabinet members before approving the Medium-Term Fiscal Expenditure Ceiling (MFTEC), which sets expenditure limits. Earlier, the Senate approved the external borrowing plan of $21.5 billion presented by President Tinubu for consideration The loans, according to the Senate, were part of the MTEF and Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP) for the 2025 budget.

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Economy

CBN hikes interest on treasury Bills above inflation rate

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December 4, 2025

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The spot rate on Nigerian Treasury bills has been increased by 146 basis points by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) following tight subscription levels at the main auction on Wednesday. The spot rate on Treasury bills with one-year maturity has now surpassed Nigeria’s 16.05% inflation by 145 basis points following a recent decision to keep the policy rate at 27%. 

The Apex Bank came to the primary market with N700 billion Treasury bills offer size across standard tenors, including 91-day, 182-day and 364 day maturities. Details from the auction results showed that demand settled slightly above the total offers as investors began to seek higher returns on naira assets despite disinflation.

Total subscription came in at about N775 billion versus N700 billion offers floated at the main auction. The results showed rising appetite for duration as investors parked about 90% of their bids on Nigerian Treasury bills with 364 days maturity. The CBN opened N100 billion worth of 91 days bills for subscription, but the offer received underwhelming bids totalling N44.17 billion.

The CBN allotted N42.80 billion for the short-term instrument at the spot rate of 15.30%, the same as the previous auction. Total demand for 182 days Nigerian Treasury bills settled at N33.38 billion as against N150 billion that the authority pushed out for subscription. The CBN raised N30.36 billion from 182 days bills allotted to investors at the spot rate of 15.50%, the same as the previous auction.

Investors staked N697.29 billion on N450 billion in 364-day Treasury bills that was offered for subscription. The CBN raised N636.46 billion from the longest tenor at the spot rate of 17.50%, up from 16.04% at the previous auction.

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