Finance
IMF says valuations of stock and bond markets ‘appear stretched’
The gap between the bullish mood among investors and the huge uncertainties about the extent and speed of the economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic is a risk to global financial stability, the International Monetary Fund report said. In fact, market valuations appear stretched across many equity and corporate bond markets, including the U.S., the agency said in an update to its Global Financial Stability report. “A number of triggers could result in a repricing of risk assets, a development that could add financial stress on top of an already unprecedented economic recession,” the IMF said. On Tuesday, the IMF cut its forecast for 2020 global economic growth, saying the coronavirus pandemic has had a much stronger negative impact than previously thought.
Bear market rallies have occurred before in periods of significant economic pressure, often only to unwind subsequently, the IMF said.
It said “a number of developments could trigger a decline in risk assets’ prices. The recession could be deeper and longer than currently anticipated by investors. There could be a second wave of infections, with ensuing containment measures. Geopolitical tensions or broadening social unrest in response to rising global inequality could lead to a reversal in investor sentiment. Finally, expectations about the extent of central banks’ support could turn out to be too optimistic, leading investors to reassess their appetite and pricing of risk. Such a repricing, especially if amplified by financial vulnerabilities, could result in a sharp tightening in financial conditions, thus constraining the flow of credit to the economy. Financial stress could worsen an already unprecedented economic recession, making a recovery even more challenging.
“Pre-existing financial vulnerabilities are being laid bare by the pandemic. First, in advanced and emerging market economies alike, corporate and household debt burdens could become unmanageable in a severe economic contraction. Aggregate corporate debt has been rising over several years, and it now stands at historically high levels relative to GDP. Household debt has also increased in many economies, some of which now face an extremely sharp economic slowdown. The deterioration in economic fundamentals has already led to a corporate ratings downgrade, and there is a risk of a broader impact on the solvency of companies and households.
In corporate bond markets, spreads of investment-grade companies are currently relatively contained, contrary to the sharp widening experienced during previous economic shocks.
Investors are apparently betting on continued and unprecedented support by central banks, the IMF said. Tobias Adrian, director of the IMF’s monetary and capital markets department, told reporters at a briefing that his agency didn’t see any “hard evidence” of asset bubbles in global financial markets. “Bubbles are a slightly different concept,” he said. Some long-time investors have recently called the rise in US. equity markets a bubble. Besides a setback in containing the pandemic, another risk is the broadening of social unrest around the globe in response to rising economic inequality, the report said. Investors might also be too optimistic about central bank support and international trade tensions might sour market sentiment.
Overall, global financial conditions have eased significantly following the sharp tightening at the start of the crisis earlier this year as interest rates have come down and risk asset prices have rebounded. The Dow Jones Industrial Average , despite declines in four of the last six trading sessions, is up almost 37% from its 52-week low hit in late March. Yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes TMUBMUSD10Y, 0.674% are down 1.4 percentage points from their 52-week high hit last July. Another risk for advanced economies is that high corporate debt burdens could become unmanageable, the IMF said. Corporate debt has been rising over several years to stand at historically high levels relative to GDP. Defaults on corporate bonds are already at the highest pace since the global financial crisis of 2008. Insolvencies could test the resilience of the banking sector too, the IMF said. The IMF called on regulators to force banks to halt dividend payments while the coronavirus crisis lasts. The Federal Reserve has been reluctant to take this step although the U.S. central bank is scheduled to release its bank stress test results for bank later Thursday. Hedge funds and other shadow banks may also face further stress, the IMF said. “The behaviour of [shadow banks] during a deep downturn is untested,” the report said.
Finance
Afreximbank successfully closed its second Samurai Bond transactions, raising JPY 81.8bn or $527m
African Export-Import Bank said it has successfully closed its second Samurai bond transaction, securing a total of JPY 81.8 billion (approx. USD 527 million) through Regular and Retail Samurai Bonds offerings.
The execution surpasses the Bank’s 2024 debut issuance size, attracting orders from more than 100 institutional and retail investors, marking a renewed demonstration of strong Japanese investor confidence in the Bank’s credit and its growing presence in the yen capital markets.
On 18 November, Afreximbank priced a JPY 45.8 billion 3-year tranche in the Regular Samurai market following a comprehensive sequence of investor engagement activities leveraging Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD9), including Non-Deal Roadshows (NDRs) in Tokyo, Kanazawa, Kyoto, Shiga and Osaka, a Global Investor Call, and a two-day soft-sounding process which tested investor appetite across 2.5-, 3-, 5-, 7-, and 10-year maturities.
With market expectations of a Bank of Japan interest rate increase, investor demand concentrated in shorter tenors, resulting in a focused 3-year tranche during official marketing.
The tranche attracted strong participation from asset managers (22.3%), life insurers (15.3%), regional corporates, and high-net-worth investors (39.7%).
Concurrently, Afreximbank priced its second Retail Samurai bond on 18 November, a JPY 36.0 billion 3-year tranche, more than double the inaugural JPY 14.1 billion Retail Samurai issuance completed in November 2024.
The 2025 Retail Samurai bond also marks the first Retail Samurai bond issued in Japan in 2025.
Following the amendment to Afreximbank’s shelf registration on 7 November 2025, SMBC Nikko conducted an extensive seven-business-day demand survey through its nationwide branch network, followed by a six-business-day bond offering period.
The offering benefited from strong visibility supported by Afreximbank’s investor engagement across the country, including the Bank’s participation at TICAD9, where Afreximbank hosted the Africa Finance Seminar to introduce Multinational Development Bank’s mandate in Africa and its credit profile to key Japanese institutional investors.
MBC Nikko Securities Inc. acted as Sole Lead Manager and Bookrunner for both the Regular and Retail Samurai transactions. Chandi Mwenebungu, Afreximbank’s Managing Director, Treasury & Markets and Group Treasurer, commented:
“We are pleased with the successful completion of our second Samurai bond transactions, which marked a significant increase from our inaugural Retail Samurai bond in 2024, and which reflect the growing depth of our relationship with Japanese investors.
The strong demand, both in the Regular and Retail offerings, demonstrates sustained confidence in Afreximbank’s credit and mandate.
We remain committed to deepening our engagement in the Samurai market through regular investor activities and continued collaboration with our Japanese partners.”
Ecobank Nigeria, a member of Africa’s leading pan-African banking group, has announced the launch of the Ecobank SME Bazaar—a two-weekend festive marketplace designed to celebrate local creativity, empower entrepreneurs, and give Lagos residents a premium shopping experience this Detty December. The Bazaar will hold on 29–30 November and 6–7 December at the Ecobank Pan African Centre (EPAC), Ozumba Mbadiwe Road, Victoria Island, Lagos. Speaking ahead of the event, Omoboye Odu, Head of SMEs, Ecobank Nigeria, reaffirmed the bank’s commitment to supporting small and medium-sized businesses, describing them as the heartbeat of Nigeria’s economy. She explained that the Ecobank SME Bazaar was created to enhance visibility for entrepreneurs, expand market access, and support sustainable business growth.
According to her, “This isn’t just a market—it’s a vibrant hub of culture, commerce, and connection. From fresh farm produce to trendy fashion, handcrafted pieces, lifestyle products, and delicious food and drinks, the Ecobank SME Bazaar promises an unforgettable experience for both shoppers and participating SMEs. Whether you’re shopping for festive gifts, hunting for unique finds, or soaking in the Detty December energy, this is the place to be.” Ms. Odu added that participating businesses will enjoy increased brand exposure, deeper customer engagement, and meaningful networking opportunities—making the Bazaar a strong platform for both festive-season sales and long-term business growth. The event is powered by Ecobank in partnership with TKD Farms, Eko Marche, Leyyow, and other SME-focused organisations committed to building sustainable enterprises.
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has said that16 banks have so far met the new capital requirements for their various licences, some four months before the March 31, 2026 deadline. The apex bank also indicated that 27 other banks have raised capital through various methods in one of the most extensive financial sector reforms since 2004. Addressing journalists at the end of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting in Abuja, CBN Governor Mr Olayemi Cardoso said the banking recapitalisation was going on orderly, consistent with the regulator’s expectations. He said, “We are monitoring developments, and indications show the process is moving in the right direction.” Nigeria has 44 deposit-taking banks, including seven commercial banks with international authorisation, 15 with national authorisation, four with regional authorisation, four non-interest banks, six merchant banks, seven financial holding companies and one representative office.
Cardoso explained that eight commercial banks had met the N500 billion capital requirement as of July 22, 2024, rising to 14 by September of the same year. The number has now increased to 16 as the industry continues to race toward full compliance. He said that the reforms would reinforce the resilience of Nigerian banks both within the country and across the continent. “We are building a financial system that will be fit for purpose for the years ahead. Many Nigerian banks now operate across Africa and have been innovative across different markets. These new buffers will better equip them to manage risks in the multiple jurisdictions where they operate,” Cardoso said. According to him, the reforms would strengthen the financial sector’s capability to support households and businesses. He said, “Ultimately, this benefits Nigerians—our traders, our businesses and our citizens—who operate across those regions. “It should give everyone comfort to know that Nigerian banks with deep local understanding are present to support them. Commercial banks are also creating their own buffers through the ongoing recapitalisation.”
He added that the apex bank considered several factors in determining the new capital thresholds, including prevailing macroeconomic conditions, stress test results and the need for stronger risk buffers. He reassured on the regulator’s commitment to strict oversight as the consolidation progresses. “We will rigorously enforce our ‘fit and proper’ criteria for prospective new shareholders, senior management, and board members of banks, and proactively monitor the integrity of financial statements, adequacy of financial resources, and fair valuation of banks’ post-merger balance sheets,” Cardoso said. He said the CBN remained confident that the banking system would emerge stronger at the conclusion of the recapitalization exercise, with institutions better prepared to support Nigeria’s economic transformation Banks have up till March 31, 2026 to beef up their minimum capital base to the new standard set by the apex bank. Under the new minimum capital base, CBN uses a distinctive definition of the new minimum capital base for each category of banks as the addition of share capital and share premium, as against the previous use of shareholders’ funds.
While most banks have shareholders’ funds in excess of the new minimum capital base, their share premium and share capital significantly fall short of the new minimum definition. The CBN had in March 2024 released its circular on review of minimum capital requirement for commercial, merchant and non-interest banks. The apex bank increased the new minimum capital for commercial banks with international affiliations, otherwise known as mega banks, to N500 billion; commercial banks with national authorisation, N200 billion and commercial banks with regional license, N50 billion. Others included merchant banks, N50 billion; non-interest banks with national license, N20 billion and non-interest banks with regional license will now have N10 billion minimum capital. The 24-month timeline for compliance ends on March 31, 2026. Under the guidelines for the recapitalisation exercise, banks are expected to subject their new equity funds to capital verification before the clearance of the allotment proposal and release of the funds to the bank for onwards completion of the offer process and addition of the new capital to its capital base. The CBN is the final signatory in a tripartite capital verification committee that included the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC). The committee is saddled with scrutinising new funds being raised by banks under the ongoing banking sector recapitalisation exercise.
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