IMF urges China to take the ‘brave choice’: curb exports, boost consumption

The International Monetary Fund IMF, on Wednesday urged China to make the “brave choice” of speeding up structural reform, as pressure grows on the world’s second-largest economy to shift towards a consumption-led model and curb reliance on debt-driven exports.

“China is simply too big to generate much (more) growth from exports, and continuing to depend on export-led growth risks furthering global trade tensions,” IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva told a press conference concluding the Fund’s regular review of the $19 trillion economy.

“It requires brave choices and determined policy action,” Georgieva added, while pressing Chinese policymakers to adopt a comprehensive macroeconomic policy package including additional fiscal stimulus and greater monetary easing, alongside targeted steps to rein in local government debt, resolve a protracted property crisis and improve social welfare provision.

Increased social spending and accelerating reform of China’s internal passport “Hukou” system, which has largely tethered people’s destinies to their place of origin since the 1950s, could boost consumption by up to 3 percentage points of GDP, she added.

Meanwhile, bringing an end to the property crisis within the next three years – which weighs heavy on domestic demand as some 70% of Chinese household wealth is in real estate – will require China to spend 5% of GDP, the IMF forecasts.

“We have been urging more attention for closure on this problem. We call them ‘zombie firms’. Let the zombies go away,” Georgieva said, encouraging officials to speed up the exit of unviable property developers from the market.

Beijing closely watches the IMF’s “Article IV” review for approval or criticism of its economic management, with its endorsement serving as a valuable counter amid rising tensions with major trading partners. Georgieva said it was not in China’s interests to provoke its trading partners to impose curbs on Chinese imports over fears that a flood of cheap goods would devastate their manufacturing sectors.

The IMF upgraded its China growth forecast for 2025 to 5%, from 4.8%, citing the production powerhouse’s strong outbound shipments, also lifting its 2026 forecast to 4.5%, from 4.2%. Net exports constituted 1.1% of China’s 5% growth for this year, the IMF chief said, while adding that the Chinese economy was on course to contribute 30% of global growth.

China has posted a record $1trillion trade surplus for the first time, November trade data showed, sparking criticism that its slowing economy was being propped up by dominating an ever-growing share of the global industrial value chain and flooding emerging markets with cheap goods diverted from the U.S. due to President Donald Trump’s tariffs that deny their manufacturing sectors a chance to develop.

Economists have also accused Beijing of benefiting for too long from an undervalued renminbi. Reuters