Inflation bites harder, rises to 14.23% in October – NBS

National Bureau of Statistics has said that The consumer price index, (CPI) which measures inflation increased by 14.23 percent, year-on-year, in October 2020. This is 0.52 per cent points higher than the rate recorded in September 2020 (13.71 percent). NBS in its latest report said “increases were recorded in all COICOP divisions that yielded the Headline index. On a month-on-month basis, the Headline index increased by 1.54 per cent in October 2020, this is 0.06 per cent rate higher than the rate recorded in September 2020. The percentage change in the average composite CPI for the twelve months period ending October 2020 over the average of the CPI for the previous twelve months period was 12.66 percent, showing a 0.22 percent point rise from 12.44 percent recorded in September 2020. The urban inflation rate increased by 14.81 percent (year-on-year) in October 2020 from 14.31 percent recorded in September 2020, while the rural inflation rate increased by 13.68 percent in October 2020 from 13.14 percent in September 2020. 

“On a month-on-month basis, the urban index rose by 1.60 percent in October 2020, up by 0.04 from 1.56 percent recorded in September 2020, while the rural index also rose by 1.48 percent in October 2020, up by 0.08 from the rate recorded in September 2020 (1.40 percent). The corresponding twelve-month year-on-year average percentage change for the urban index is 13.29 percent in October 2020. This is higher than 13.07 percent reported in September 2020, while the corresponding rural inflation rate in October 2020 is 12.09 percent compared to 11.86 percent recorded in September 2020. The composite food index rose by 17.38 percent in October 2020 compared to 16.66 percent in September 2020. This rise in the food index was caused by increases in prices of Bread and cereals, Potatoes, Yam and other tubers, Meat, Fish, Fruits, Vegetable, alcoholic and food beverages and Oils and Fats. On month-on-month basis, the food sub-index increased by 1.96 percent in October 2020, up by 0.08 percent points from 1.88 percent recorded in September 2020. 

“The average annual rate of change of the Food sub-index for the twelve-month period ending October 2020 over the previous twelve month average was 15.42 percent, representing a 0.29 percent points from the average annual rate of change recorded in September 2020 (15.13) percent. The ”All items less farm produce” or Core inflation, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural produce stood at 11.14 percent in October 2020, up by 0.56 percent when compared with 10.58 percent recorded in September 2020. On month-on-month basis, the core sub-index increased by 1.25 percent in October 2020. This was up by 0.31 percent when compared with 0.94 percent recorded in September 2020. The highest increases were recorded in prices of Passenger transport by air, Hospital and Medical services, Passenger transport by road, Pharmaceutical products, Motor cars, Vehicle spare parts, Maintenance and repair of personal transport equipment, Hairdressing salons and personal grooming establishments, Miscellaneous services relating to the dwelling, Paramedical services and shoes and other footwear. The average 12-month annual rate of change of the index was 9.96 percent for the twelve-month period ending October 2020 representing is 0.19 percent points higher than 9.77 percent recorded in September 2020. 

“In analysing price movements under this section, note that the CPI is weighted by consumption expenditure patterns which differ across states. Accordingly, the weight assigned to a particular food or non-food item may differ from state to state making interstate comparisons of consumption basket inadvisable and potentially misleading.  In October 2020, all items inflation on year on year basis was highest in Zamfara (17.69%), Sokoto (16.99%) and Ebonyi (16.91%), while Lagos (11.96%), Abuja (11.84%) and Cross River (10.50%) recorded the slowest rise in headline Year on Year inflation.  On month on month basis however, October 2020 all items inflation was highest in Sokoto (2.91%), Edo (2.53%) and Akwa Ibom (2.52%), while Oyo (0.69%), Taraba (0.60%) and Jigawa (0.37%) recorded the slowest rise in headline month on month inflation. In October 2020, food inflation on a year on year basis was highest in Edo (21.65%), Zamfara (20.88%) and Kogi(20.58%),while Lagos(14.57%),Ogun (14.47%) and Ondo (14.23%)recorded the slowest rise.  On month on month basis however, October 2020 food inflation was highest in Kwara (3.88%), Edo (3.81%) and Sokoto (3.65%), while Oyo (0.57%) and Jigawa (0.54%) and Taraba (0.29%) recorded the slowest rise on month on month inflation”.