Economy
Inflation pushes upward to 21.9% in February, propelled by hike in food prices
National Bureau of Statistics has said that the rate of inflation has moved up to 21.9 per cent in the month of February pushed by hike in prices food stuff across the country. The NBS report said “the food inflation rate in February 2023 was 24.35 per cent on a year-on-year basis; which was 7.24 per cent points higher compared to the rate recorded in February 2022 (17.11%). The rise in food inflation was caused by increases in prices of Oil and Fat, Bread and Cereals, Potatoes, Yam and Other Tubers, Fish, Fruits, Meat, Vegetable, and Food Product. On a month-on-month basis, the food inflation rate in February 2023 was 1.90 per cent, which was 0.18 per cent points lower compared to the rate recorded in January 2023 (2.08%). The average annual rate of food inflation for the twelve-months ending February 2023 over the previous twelve-months average was 22.12 per cent, which was a 2.44 per cent points increase from the average annual rate of change recorded in February 2022 (19.69%)”.
NBS further said “in February 2023, the headline inflation rate rose to 21.91 per cent compared to January 2023 headline inflation rate which was 21.82 per cent. Looking at the trend, the February 2023 inflation rate showed an increase of 0.09 per cent points when compared to January 2023 headline inflation rate. Similarly, on a year-on-year basis, the headline inflation rate was 6.21 per cent points higher compared to the rate recorded in February 2022, which was 15.70 per cent. This shows that the headline inflation rate (year-on-year basis) increased in February 2023 when compared to the same month in the preceding year (i.e., February 2022). The contributions of items on a class basis to the increase in the headline index are presented, thus: Bread and Cereal (21.67%), Actual and Imputed Rent (7.74%), Potatoes, Yam and Other Tubers (6.06%), Vegetable (5.44%) and Meat (4.78%). On a month-on-month basis, the percentage change in the All-Items Index in February 2023 was 1.71%, which was 0.16% points lower than the rate recorded in January 2023 (1.87%). This means that in February 2023, on average, the general price level was 0.16% lower relative to January 2023.The percentage change in the average CPI for the twelve months period ending February 2023 over the average of the CPI for the previous twelve months period was 19.87%, showing a 3.15% points increase compared to 16.73% recorded in February 2022.
“The increases were recorded in all COICOP divisions that yielded the headline index. On a year-on-year basis, the urban inflation rate in February 2023 was 22.78%, this was 6.53% points higher compared to the 16.25% recorded in February 2022. On a month-on-month ba- sis, the urban inflation rate was 1.85% in February 2023, this was 0.13% points lower com- pared to January 2023 (1.98%). The corresponding twelve-months average for the urban inflation rate was 20.45% in February 2023. This was 3.16% points higher compared to the 17.29% reported in February 2022. The rural inflation rate in February 2023 was 21.10% on a year-on-year basis; this was 5.92% points higher compared to the 15.18% recorded in February 2022. On a month-on-month ba- sis, the rural inflation rate in February 2023 was 1.58%, down by 0.19% points compared to January 2023 (1.77%). The corresponding twelve-months average for the rural inflation rate in February 2023 was 19.33%. This was 3.15% points higher compared to the 16.18% recorded in February 2022.
The “All items less farm produce” or Core inflation, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural produce stood at 18.84% in February 2023 on a year-on-year basis; up by 4.83% when compared to the 14.01% recorded in February 2022. The highest increases were recorded in prices of Gas, Passenger Transport by Air, Liquid Fuel, Fuels, and Lubricants for Personal Transport Equipment, Vehicles Spare Parts, Solid Fuel, etc. On a month-on-month ba- sis, the core inflation rate was 1.06% in February 2023. It stood at 1.82% in January 2023, down by 0.76% points. The average twelve-months annual inflation rate was 16.92% for the twelve-months ending February 2023; this was 3.46% points higher than the 13.46% record- ed in February 2022.
“In analysing price movements under this section, it should be noted that CPI is weighted by consumption expenditure patterns which differ across States and locations. According- ly, the weight assigned to a particular food or non-food item may differ from State to State making interstate comparisons of consumption baskets inadvisable and potentially misleading. In February 2023, All items inflation rate on a year-on-year basis was highest in Bauchi (24.59%), Rivers (24.40%), and Ondo (24.27%), while Sokoto (18.90%), Borno (18.94%) and Cross River (19.62%) recorded the slowest rise in headline year-on-year inflation. On a month-on-month basis, however, February 2023 recorded the highest increases in Edo (2.76%), Ogun (2.64%), and Yobe (2.36%), while Bayelsa (0.74%), Borno (0.95%) and Taraba (1.03%) recorded the slowest rise on month-on-month inflation. In February 2023, food inflation on a year-on-year basis was highest in Kwara (29.51%), Imo (27.47%), and Lagos (27.42%), while Sokoto (18.54%), Jigawa (19.67%) and Yobe (21.89%) recorded the slowest rise on year-on-year food inflation. On a month-on-month basis, however, February 2023 food inflation was highest in Yobe (3.15%), Edo (3.03%), and Ogun (2.90%), while Rivers (0.75%), Sokoto (0.89%) and Nassarawa (0.90%) recorded the slowest rise on month-on-month inflation.
The Arab Africa Trade Bridges (AATB) Program and the Federal Republic of Nigeria formalized a partnership with the signing of the AATB Membership Agreement, officially welcoming Nigeria as the Program’s newest member country. The signing ceremony took place in Abuja on the sidelines of the 5th AATB Board of Governors Meeting, hosted by the Federal Government of Nigeria.
The Membership Agreement was signed by Eng. Adeeb Y. Al Aama, the CEO of the International Islamic Trade Finance Corporation (ITFC) and AATB Program Secretary General, and H.E. Mr. Wale Edun, Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Federal Republic of Nigeria. The Agreement will provide a strategic and operational framework to support Nigeria’s efforts in trade competitiveness, promote export diversification, strengthen priority value chains, and advance capacity-building efforts in line with national development priorities. Areas of collaboration will include trade promotion, agribusiness modernization, SME development, businessmen missions, trade facilitation, logistics efficiency, and digital trade readiness.
The Honourable Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr. Wale Edun, called for deeper trade collaboration between African and Arab nations, stressing the importance of value-added Agribusiness and industrial partnerships for regional growth. Speaking in Abuja at the Agribusiness Matchmaking Forum ahead of the AATB Board of Governors Meeting, the Minister said the shifting global economy makes it essential for African and Arab nations to rely more on regional cooperation, investment and shared markets.
He highlighted projections showing Arab-Africa trade could grow by more than US$37 billion in the next three years and urged partners to prioritize value addition rather than raw commodity exports. He noted that Nigeria’s growing industrial base and upcoming National Single Window reforms will support efficiency, investment and private-sector expansion.
“This is a moment to turn opportunity into action”, he said. “By working together, we can build stronger value chains, create jobs and support prosperity across our regions”, Edun emphasized. “As African and Arab nations embark on this journey of deeper trade collaboration, the potential for growth and development is vast. With a shared vision and commitment to value-added partnerships, we can unlock new opportunities, drive economic growth, and create a brighter future for our people.”
Speaking during the event, Eng. Adeeb Y. Al Aama, Chief Executive Officer of ITFC and Secretary General of the AATB Program, stated: “We are pleased to welcome Nigeria to be part of the AATB Program. Nigeria stands as one of Africa’s most dynamic and resilient economies in Africa, with a rapidly expanding private sector and strong potential across agribusiness, energy, manufacturing, and digital industries. Through this Membership Agreement, we look forward to collaborating closely with Nigerian institutions to strengthen value chains, expand regional market access, enhance trade finance and investment opportunities, and support the country’s development priorities.”
The signing of this Agreement underscores AATB’s continued engagement with African countries and its evolving portfolio of programs supporting trade and investment. In recent years, AATB has worked on initiatives across agribusiness, textiles, logistics, digital trade, export readiness under the AfCFTA framework, and other regional initiatives such as the Common African Agro-Parks (CAAPs) Programme.
With Nigeria’s accession, the AATB Program extends it’s presence in the region and adds a key partner working toward advancing trade-led development and fostering inclusive economic growth.
Federal Executive Council (FEC) has approved the 2026–2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF), a key fiscal document that outlines Nigeria’s revenue expectations, macroeconomic assumptions, and spending priorities for the next three years. The approval followed Wednesday’s FEC meeting presided over by President Bola Tinubu at the State House, Abuja. The Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Senator Atiku Bagudu made this known after the meeting.
The Minister said the Federal Government is projecting a total revenue inflow of N34.33 trillion in 2026, including N4.98 trillion expected from government-owned enterprises. Bagudu said that the projected revenue is N6.55 trillion lower than earlier estimates, adding that federal allocations are expected to drop by about N9.4 trillion, representing a 16% decline compared to the 2025 budget.
He said that statutory transfers are expected to amount to about N3 trillion within the same fiscal year. On macroeconomic assumptions, FEC adopted an oil production benchmark of 2.6 million barrels per day (mbpd) for 2026, although a more conservative 1.8 mbpd will be used for budgeting purposes. An oil price benchmark of $64 per barrel and an exchange rate of N1,512 per dollar were also approved.
Bagudu said the exchange rate assumption reflects projections tied to economic and political developments ahead of the 2027 general elections. He said the exchange rate assumption took into account the fiscal outlook ahead of the 2027 general elections.
The minister said that all the parameters were based on macroeconomic analysis by the Budget Office and other relevant agencies. Bagudu said FEC also reviewed comments from cabinet members before approving the Medium-Term Fiscal Expenditure Ceiling (MFTEC), which sets expenditure limits. Earlier, the Senate approved the external borrowing plan of $21.5 billion presented by President Tinubu for consideration The loans, according to the Senate, were part of the MTEF and Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP) for the 2025 budget.
The spot rate on Nigerian Treasury bills has been increased by 146 basis points by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) following tight subscription levels at the main auction on Wednesday. The spot rate on Treasury bills with one-year maturity has now surpassed Nigeria’s 16.05% inflation by 145 basis points following a recent decision to keep the policy rate at 27%.
The Apex Bank came to the primary market with N700 billion Treasury bills offer size across standard tenors, including 91-day, 182-day and 364 day maturities. Details from the auction results showed that demand settled slightly above the total offers as investors began to seek higher returns on naira assets despite disinflation.
Total subscription came in at about N775 billion versus N700 billion offers floated at the main auction. The results showed rising appetite for duration as investors parked about 90% of their bids on Nigerian Treasury bills with 364 days maturity. The CBN opened N100 billion worth of 91 days bills for subscription, but the offer received underwhelming bids totalling N44.17 billion.
The CBN allotted N42.80 billion for the short-term instrument at the spot rate of 15.30%, the same as the previous auction. Total demand for 182 days Nigerian Treasury bills settled at N33.38 billion as against N150 billion that the authority pushed out for subscription. The CBN raised N30.36 billion from 182 days bills allotted to investors at the spot rate of 15.50%, the same as the previous auction.
Investors staked N697.29 billion on N450 billion in 364-day Treasury bills that was offered for subscription. The CBN raised N636.46 billion from the longest tenor at the spot rate of 17.50%, up from 16.04% at the previous auction.
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