Economy
Inflation rate hits 27.33%, worsening cost of living in Nigeria
National Bureau of Statistics NBS has said that in the month of October 2023, headline inflation rate increased to 27.33% relative to the September 2023 headline inflation rate which was 26.72%. Looking at the movement, the October 2023 headline inflation rate showed an increase of 0.61% points when compared to the September 2023 headline inflation rate. Furthermore, on a year-on-year basis, the headline inflation rate was 6.24% points higher compared to the rate recorded in October 2022, which was (21.09%). This shows that the headline inflation rate (year-on-year basis) increased in October 2023 when compared to the same month in the preceding year (i.e., October 2022). Inflation in the country rose for the tenth month in a row in October, increasing pressure on the new central bank governor to raise interest rates when the monetary policy committee meets for the first time since his appointment.
NBS inflation report for the month of October said “the rise in Food inflation on a year-on-year basis was caused by increases in prices of Bread and cereals, Oil and fat, Potatoes, Yam and other Tubers, Fish, Fruit, Meat, Vegetables and Milk, Cheese and Eggs. On a month-on-month basis, the Food inflation rate in October 2023 was 1.91% this was 0.54% lower compared to the rate recorded in September 2023 (2.45%). The decline in Food inflation on a month-over-month basis was caused by the decline in the rate of increase in the average prices of Fruits, Oil and fat, Coffee, Tea and Cocoa, Bread and Cereals. The average annual rate of Food inflation for the twelve months ending October 2023 over the previous twelve-month average was 26.33%, which was a 6.50% points increase from the average annual rate of change recorded in October 2022 (19.83%). Before now, “all items less farm produces” is referred to as the Core inflation. This was because the prices of items that constitute energy were regulated by the government e.g, Petroleum Motor Spirit (PMS). Due to the deregulation of the sector and the removal of the fuel subsidy, all the items that constitute energy are now determined by market forces and hence their prices are termed volatiles. Therefore, Core inflation is referred to as all items index less farm produces and energy.
The “All items less farm produces and energy” or Core inflation, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural produces and energy stood at 22.58% in October 2023 on a year-on-year basis; an increase of 5.12% when compared to the 17.46% recorded in October 2022. The highest increases were recorded in prices of Passenger Transport by Road, Medical Services, Passenger Transport by Air, Actual and Imputed Rentals for Housing, Pharmaceutical products etc. On a month-on-month basis, the Core Inflation rate was 1.39% in October 2023 compared to September 2023 which stood at 2.22%, this shows a decline of 0.83%. The average twelve-month annual inflation rate ending October 2023 was 19.98%; this was 4.60% points higher than the rate recorded for the twelve-month average ending October 2022 (15.38%)”.
According to NBS “in October 2023, the All-Items inflation rate on a Year-on-Year basis was highest in Kogi (34.20%), Rivers (31.44%), Lagos (31.23%), while Borno (20.06%), Jigawa (23.52%) and Sokoto (24.47%) recorded the slowest rise in Headline inflation on Year-on-Year basis. On a Month-on-Month basis, however, October 2023 recorded the highest increases in Yobe (3.72%), Jigawa (2.85%), Sokoto (2.84%), while Kogi (1.01%), Edo (1.05%) and Kwara (1.18%) recorded the slowest rise on Month-on-Month inflation”. The NBS report further said “in October 2023, Food inflation on a Year-on-Year basis was highest in Kogi (41.74%), Kwara (38.48%) and Lagos (37.37%), while Borno (24.41%), Kebbi (24.90%) and Jigawa (25.10%) recorded the slowest rise in Food inflation on a Year-on-Year basis. On a Month-on-Month basis, however, October 2023 Food inflation was highest in Yobe (5.35%), Sokoto (3.68%) and Jigawa (3.45%), while Edo (0.95%), Katsina (1.03%) and Rivers (1.10%) recorded the slowest rise in inflation on Month-on-Month basis.
“However, on a month-on-month basis, the headline inflation rate in October 2023 was 1.73%, which was 0.37% lower than the rate recorded in September 2023 (2.10%). This means that in October 2023, the rate of increase in the average price level is less than the rate of increase in the average price level in September 2023. The percentage change in the average CPI for the twelve months ending October 2023 over the average of the CPI for the previous twelve-month period was 23.44%, showing a 5.57% increase compared to 17.86% recorded in October 2022. On a year-on-year basis, in October 2023, the Urban inflation rate was 29.29%, this was 7.66% points higher compared to the 21.63% recorded in October 2022. On a month-on-month basis, the Urban inflation rate was 1.81% in October 2023, this was 0.43% points lower compared to September 2023 (2.24%). The corresponding twelve-month average for the Urban inflation rate was 24.76% in October 2023. This was 6.38% points higher compared to the 18.38% reported in October 2022..
“The Rural inflation rate in October 2023 was 25.58% on a year-on-year basis; this was 5.01% higher compared to the 20.57% recorded in October 2022. On a month-on-month basis, the Rural inflation rate in October 2023 was 1.67%, declined by 0.29% points compared to September 2023 (1.96%). The corresponding twelve-month average for the Rural inflation rate in October 2023 was 22.23%. This was 4.85% higher compared to the 17.38% recorded in October 2022. The Food inflation rate in October 2023 was 31.52% on a year-on-year basis, which was 7.80% points higher compared to the rate recorded in October 2022 (23.72%)”.
The Arab Africa Trade Bridges (AATB) Program and the Federal Republic of Nigeria formalized a partnership with the signing of the AATB Membership Agreement, officially welcoming Nigeria as the Program’s newest member country. The signing ceremony took place in Abuja on the sidelines of the 5th AATB Board of Governors Meeting, hosted by the Federal Government of Nigeria.
The Membership Agreement was signed by Eng. Adeeb Y. Al Aama, the CEO of the International Islamic Trade Finance Corporation (ITFC) and AATB Program Secretary General, and H.E. Mr. Wale Edun, Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Federal Republic of Nigeria. The Agreement will provide a strategic and operational framework to support Nigeria’s efforts in trade competitiveness, promote export diversification, strengthen priority value chains, and advance capacity-building efforts in line with national development priorities. Areas of collaboration will include trade promotion, agribusiness modernization, SME development, businessmen missions, trade facilitation, logistics efficiency, and digital trade readiness.
The Honourable Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr. Wale Edun, called for deeper trade collaboration between African and Arab nations, stressing the importance of value-added Agribusiness and industrial partnerships for regional growth. Speaking in Abuja at the Agribusiness Matchmaking Forum ahead of the AATB Board of Governors Meeting, the Minister said the shifting global economy makes it essential for African and Arab nations to rely more on regional cooperation, investment and shared markets.
He highlighted projections showing Arab-Africa trade could grow by more than US$37 billion in the next three years and urged partners to prioritize value addition rather than raw commodity exports. He noted that Nigeria’s growing industrial base and upcoming National Single Window reforms will support efficiency, investment and private-sector expansion.
“This is a moment to turn opportunity into action”, he said. “By working together, we can build stronger value chains, create jobs and support prosperity across our regions”, Edun emphasized. “As African and Arab nations embark on this journey of deeper trade collaboration, the potential for growth and development is vast. With a shared vision and commitment to value-added partnerships, we can unlock new opportunities, drive economic growth, and create a brighter future for our people.”
Speaking during the event, Eng. Adeeb Y. Al Aama, Chief Executive Officer of ITFC and Secretary General of the AATB Program, stated: “We are pleased to welcome Nigeria to be part of the AATB Program. Nigeria stands as one of Africa’s most dynamic and resilient economies in Africa, with a rapidly expanding private sector and strong potential across agribusiness, energy, manufacturing, and digital industries. Through this Membership Agreement, we look forward to collaborating closely with Nigerian institutions to strengthen value chains, expand regional market access, enhance trade finance and investment opportunities, and support the country’s development priorities.”
The signing of this Agreement underscores AATB’s continued engagement with African countries and its evolving portfolio of programs supporting trade and investment. In recent years, AATB has worked on initiatives across agribusiness, textiles, logistics, digital trade, export readiness under the AfCFTA framework, and other regional initiatives such as the Common African Agro-Parks (CAAPs) Programme.
With Nigeria’s accession, the AATB Program extends it’s presence in the region and adds a key partner working toward advancing trade-led development and fostering inclusive economic growth.
Federal Executive Council (FEC) has approved the 2026–2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF), a key fiscal document that outlines Nigeria’s revenue expectations, macroeconomic assumptions, and spending priorities for the next three years. The approval followed Wednesday’s FEC meeting presided over by President Bola Tinubu at the State House, Abuja. The Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Senator Atiku Bagudu made this known after the meeting.
The Minister said the Federal Government is projecting a total revenue inflow of N34.33 trillion in 2026, including N4.98 trillion expected from government-owned enterprises. Bagudu said that the projected revenue is N6.55 trillion lower than earlier estimates, adding that federal allocations are expected to drop by about N9.4 trillion, representing a 16% decline compared to the 2025 budget.
He said that statutory transfers are expected to amount to about N3 trillion within the same fiscal year. On macroeconomic assumptions, FEC adopted an oil production benchmark of 2.6 million barrels per day (mbpd) for 2026, although a more conservative 1.8 mbpd will be used for budgeting purposes. An oil price benchmark of $64 per barrel and an exchange rate of N1,512 per dollar were also approved.
Bagudu said the exchange rate assumption reflects projections tied to economic and political developments ahead of the 2027 general elections. He said the exchange rate assumption took into account the fiscal outlook ahead of the 2027 general elections.
The minister said that all the parameters were based on macroeconomic analysis by the Budget Office and other relevant agencies. Bagudu said FEC also reviewed comments from cabinet members before approving the Medium-Term Fiscal Expenditure Ceiling (MFTEC), which sets expenditure limits. Earlier, the Senate approved the external borrowing plan of $21.5 billion presented by President Tinubu for consideration The loans, according to the Senate, were part of the MTEF and Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP) for the 2025 budget.
The spot rate on Nigerian Treasury bills has been increased by 146 basis points by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) following tight subscription levels at the main auction on Wednesday. The spot rate on Treasury bills with one-year maturity has now surpassed Nigeria’s 16.05% inflation by 145 basis points following a recent decision to keep the policy rate at 27%.
The Apex Bank came to the primary market with N700 billion Treasury bills offer size across standard tenors, including 91-day, 182-day and 364 day maturities. Details from the auction results showed that demand settled slightly above the total offers as investors began to seek higher returns on naira assets despite disinflation.
Total subscription came in at about N775 billion versus N700 billion offers floated at the main auction. The results showed rising appetite for duration as investors parked about 90% of their bids on Nigerian Treasury bills with 364 days maturity. The CBN opened N100 billion worth of 91 days bills for subscription, but the offer received underwhelming bids totalling N44.17 billion.
The CBN allotted N42.80 billion for the short-term instrument at the spot rate of 15.30%, the same as the previous auction. Total demand for 182 days Nigerian Treasury bills settled at N33.38 billion as against N150 billion that the authority pushed out for subscription. The CBN raised N30.36 billion from 182 days bills allotted to investors at the spot rate of 15.50%, the same as the previous auction.
Investors staked N697.29 billion on N450 billion in 364-day Treasury bills that was offered for subscription. The CBN raised N636.46 billion from the longest tenor at the spot rate of 17.50%, up from 16.04% at the previous auction.
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