January 2026 inflation outcomes of 15.10% in Jan signal a meaningful transition toward macroeconomic stabilisation—CPPE

Nigeria’s headline inflation rate dropped to 15.10% in January, the consumer price index data released by the statistics office on Monday has shown just as Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprises has said that January 2026 inflation outcomes signal a meaningful transition toward macroeconomic stabilisation, driven primarily by declining food prices and supported by easing core inflation.

The moderated consumer price index was largely driven by food prices, with food inflation falling to 8.89% year -on -year, on improved harvests and better supply conditions across key staples.

The inflation position beat the majority of Broadstreet analysts’ expectations; a similar development was experienced in December 2025 as a result of the consumer price index normalisation.

Base effect on the consumer price data was projected to drive inflation surge, but the statistics office data has proven Broadstreet investment firms wrong again.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), inflation reduced by 5 basis points month on month to 15.10% January, as against 15.15% reported in December 2025.

Core inflation rate also declined to 17.72% year on year, according to the consumer price index report launched in Abuja, from 18.63% in the comparable period last year. Food rate declined to 8.89%, statistics office data revealed, from 10.84%.  

Overall, the data present a dovish signal ahead of the MPC meeting, raising expectations of a potential policy pause or rate cut as inflation trends toward the 2027 target.

It said “the development is positive for household welfare, consumption recovery, and investment confidence, but presents downside risks for farm incomes and rural economic sustainability.

“The central policy priority is therefore to consolidate disinflation while protecting agricultural productivity and rural livelihoods. Achieving this balance will be critical to transforming current price moderation into durable stability, inclusive growth, and improved investor confidence in Nigeria’s economy.

In a its reaction to the January Inflation reports CPPE further said “The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) notes the significant moderation in Nigeria’s inflation dynamics as reflected in the Consumer Price Index for January 2026. Headline inflation declined to 15.10 percent year-on-year, compared with 27.61 percent in January 2025 and 15.15% in December 2025.

“Month-on-month inflation turned negative at −2.88 percent, indicating an actual easing in the general price level relative to December 2025.

This development represents an important macroeconomic shift with implications for household welfare, agricultural income sustainability, monetary policy direction, and private-sector investment strategy.
Nature and Drivers of the Disinflation Trend

“The easing of inflation pressures is broad-based across major components of the price index. Food inflation declined sharply to 8.89 percent year-on-year, down from 29.63 percent in January 2025 and 10.84 in December 2025. This was alongside a −6.02 percent month-on-month movement driven by falling prices of staple food items.

“Core inflation also moderated to 17.72 percent year-on-year, compared to 18.63% in December 2025, confirming that price easing is extending beyond food into other segments of the consumption basket, even though underlying structural pressures remain elevated.

“Urban and rural inflation rates declined to 15.36 percent and 14.44 percent respectively, indicating that the disinflation trend is geographically widespread. Taken together, these indicators suggest the emergence of real disinflation rather than temporary price volatility.

The sharp moderation in food inflation carries substantial welfare benefits because food accounts for the largest share of household expenditure in Nigeria. Lower food prices are therefore expected to; improve real purchasing power, particularly for low-income households; reduce poverty and food-security pressures and support gradual recovery in consumer demand for non-food goods and services.

It said “if sustained, these developments could stimulate retail trade, manufacturing utilisation, and service-sector activity, thereby supporting broader economic recovery. Concerns Regarding Farmers’ Income and Rural Livelihoods While declining food prices benefit consumers, they also pose risks for farm incomes and rural economic stability. Sustained weakness in farm-gate prices may:

Reduce farmers’ revenues and investment capacity, weaken rural purchasing power, discourage agricultural production, potentially creating future supply shortages and renewed inflation pressures. There is therefore a critical need to balance consumer affordability with producer sustainability to safeguard national food security.

Continuing it said “the disinflation trend creates room for cautious and gradual monetary easing. However, this must remain data-driven given that core inflation and twelve-month average inflation remain elevated.

“Government should deploy targeted measures to protect farm incomes while sustaining food affordability, including productivity support, minimum guaranteed prices for selected crops, strategic reserves, and expanded agro-processing capacity to absorb surplus output.

It said “State-level disparities in inflation—where headline inflation is highest in Benue, Kogi, and the FCT, and lowest in Ebonyi, Katsina, and Imo—highlight the importance of transport costs, security conditions, and supply-chain efficiency in price formation.


“Addressing these structural constraints is essential for durable nationwide price stability. Lower food inflation provides an opportunity to shift policy emphasis from emergency relief toward productivity, nutrition, and human-capital investment.


“Easing inflation—particularly food inflation—signals gradual recovery in real household demand, creating opportunities in consumer goods, retail, logistics, and services. Disinflation reduces the ability of firms to rely on price increases for revenue growth, thereby increasing the importance of cost efficiency, productivity, and scale.

“Lower primary food prices may compress margins in crop production but strengthen the investment case for storage, processing, cold chains, and export-oriented agribusiness. Sustained disinflation could support gradual interest-rate moderation and improved equity valuations, favouring long-term productive investment over short-term inflation hedging”.